Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

St. Mirren 2–0 Celtic

Sunday 18 September 2022, 12:00 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 8 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Don Robertson · Attendance 6,331

St. Mirren O'Hara 43', Ayunga 53'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenCeltic
Goals20
xG0.821.18
Expected Points1.071.59

St. Mirren 24%Draw 34%Celtic 41%

Most likely score 1–1, 20%. Final score 2–0, 4%.

Celtic goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+11%13%8%3%14%11%4%4%5%4%1%20%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTTait on for Tanser, 68'Gogic on for Strain, 72'Kiltie on for Ayunga, 80'Hatate on for Mooy and Jota on for Maeda, 46'Giakoumakis on for Turnbull and Haksabanovic on for Abada, 57'O'Riley on for Taylor, 74'O'Hara 43'Ayunga 53'Celtic 1.18St. Mirren 0.8200.511.50153045607590HTTait on for Tanser, 68'Gogic on for Strain, 72'Kiltie on for Ayunga, 80'Hatate on for Mooy and Jota on for Maeda, 46'Giakoumakis on for Turnbull and Haksabanovic on for Abada, 57'O'Riley on for Taylor, 74'O'Hara 43'Ayunga 53'1.180.82St. MirrenCeltic

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenCeltic

0.82 −0.44xG1.18 −1.64
1.20 +0.13xG on target0.47 −2.76
4 −8Shots19 −2
2 −1.0Shots on target4 −4.8
2 −0.2Big chances1 −2.8
20% −18Possession80% +12
171 −101Passes688 +86
47% −14Pass accuracy89% +3
14% −31Field tilt86% +12
18 −14Final-third entries93 +17
6 −6Box entries18 −5
23.8 +6Passes per defensive action7.0 −4
6 −0.3Corners7 −0.8
18 +5Tackles24 +11
15 +8.2Interceptions7 +0.2
25 +6Clearances19 +6
4 +1.8Saves0 −2.0
15 +2.7Fouls11 +1.7
1 −0.3Offsides1 −2.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

O'Hara 62', 0.10 xGGallagher 55', 0.02 xGAyunga 53', 0.50 xG, goalO'Hara 43', 0.20 xG, goal85%0.70 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.70 xG, 2 goals15%0.12 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Celtic

Abada 45+1', 0.17 xGGiakoumakis 68', 0.16 xGFuruhashi 45+1', 0.13 xGMaeda 20', 0.10 xGHatate 61', 0.10 xGJenz 78', 0.08 xGFuruhashi 39', 0.07 xGMooy 45', 0.07 xGTurnbull 8', 0.06 xGTaylor 69', 0.04 xGMooy 12', 0.03 xGTurnbull 33', 0.03 xGMcGregor 34', 0.03 xGO'Riley 82', 0.03 xGJota 90', 0.03 xGAbada 45', 0.02 xGFuruhashi 33', 0.01 xGJenz 66', 0.01 xGHaksabanovic 82', 0.01 xG25%0.30 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.30 xG, 0 goals53%0.62 xGCentral box: 9 shots, 0.62 xG, 0 goals7%0.08 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals13%0.15 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals3%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenCeltic

0.30 2 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.76 14 shots, 0 goals
0.52 2 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.42 5 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
43 min (45%) · St. Mirren 0.20, Celtic 0.33 xG
St. Mirren ahead
52 min (55%) · St. Mirren 0.62, Celtic 0.85 xG

Line-ups

123223118317166710CarsonStrainFraserGallagherDunneTanserBaccusErhahonO'HaraAyungaMainYellow cardYellow cardGoalYellow cardGoal72'68'80'St. Mirren 5-3-2Steve Robinson156576342131411838HartRalstonWelshJenzTaylorMcGregorMooyTurnbullAbadaFuruhashiMaedaYellow card74'46'57'57'46'Celtic 4-3-3Ange Postecoglou

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 68' Tait for Tanser
  • 72' Gogic for Strain
  • 80' Kiltie for Ayunga

Celtic substitutes

  • 46' Jota for Maeda
  • 46' Hatate for Mooy
  • 57' Giakoumakis for Turnbull
  • 57' Haksabanovic for Abada · yellow card 90+4'
  • 74' O'Riley for Taylor

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
CarsonGK900.000.0100.0441
StrainRWB7210.000.3620.40810
FraserCB900.000.0100.0116
Gallagher CB900.020.0100.0217
DunneCB900.000.000−0.0107
TanserLWB680.000.0210.0115
Baccus CM900.000.0100.01111
ErhahonCM900.000.0100.0005
O'Hara CM9010.300.0200.0117
AyungaST8010.500.0100.0132
MainST900.000.0500.0022
TaitDF220.000.0000.0212
GogicDF180.000.000−0.0101
KiltieMF100.000.000−0.0100

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HartGK900.000.0000.0101
Ralston RB900.000.4330.42148
WelshCB900.000.0100.1573
JenzCB900.080.0100.201210
TaylorLB740.040.0720.1875
McGregorCM900.030.1030.0792
MooyCM460.100.0600.1150
TurnbullCM570.080.0720.2243
AbadaRW570.190.0210.0212
FuruhashiST900.210.0100.0000
MaedaLW460.100.000−0.0313
JotaFW440.030.161−0.0115
HatateMF440.100.0420.1024
GiakoumakisFW330.160.0000.0110
Haksabanovic FW330.010.6230.4891
O'RileyMF160.030.0510.0213

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

Strain and Main: 3 passesFraser and Gallagher: 3 passesGallagher and Main: 3 passesO'Hara and Ayunga: 3 passesStrain and Fraser: 4 passesStrain and Baccus: 4 passesGallagher and Tanser: 4 passesCarson and Main: 5 passesStrain and Ayunga: 7 passesCarson: 7 completed passesStrain: 13 completed passesDunne: 4 completed passesFraser: 8 completed passesGallagher: 10 completed passesTanser: 2 completed passesBaccus: 6 completed passesO'Hara: 7 completed passesErhahon: 6 completed passesAyunga: 7 completed passesMain: 5 completed passes123182231317616710CarsonStrainDunneFraserGallagherTanserBaccusO'HaraErhahonAyungaMainStarters until 68' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Celtic

Welsh and Turnbull: 6 passesWelsh and Abada: 6 passesMooy and Abada: 6 passesTurnbull and Abada: 6 passesWelsh and McGregor: 7 passesJenz and McGregor: 8 passesMcGregor and Abada: 10 passesRalston and Abada: 11 passesMooy and Turnbull: 11 passesHart and Jenz: 12 passesJenz and Welsh: 12 passesMooy and McGregor: 12 passesRalston and McGregor: 13 passesRalston and Turnbull: 15 passesJenz and Mooy: 16 passesTaylor and Mooy: 16 passesTaylor and McGregor: 16 passesTaylor and Maeda: 16 passesMcGregor and Turnbull: 17 passesWelsh and Mooy: 18 passesTaylor and Turnbull: 19 passesRalston and Mooy: 22 passesRalston and Welsh: 23 passesJenz and Taylor: 35 passesHart: 15 completed passesRalston: 51 completed passesJenz: 48 completed passesWelsh: 43 completed passesTaylor: 58 completed passesMooy: 51 completed passesMcGregor: 44 completed passesTurnbull: 42 completed passesAbada: 17 completed passesFuruhashi: 1 completed passesMaeda: 12 completed passes156657313421411838HartRalstonJenzWelshTaylorMooyMcGregorTurnbullAbadaFuruhashiMaedaStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 6+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
CarsonMain6
FraserMain5
BaccusStrain4
StrainAyunga4
TaitMain4

Celtic

FromToPasses
JenzTaylor28
WelshJenz21
TaylorMcGregor20
RalstonWelsh17
TaylorJenz17

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

3−1.27+0.316+4.313+5.75+1.323+16.09+2.06+1.36−0.75−1.04−2.53−1.02−1.84−0.31−4.53−0.51−2.31−1.82−0.73+1.04+1.31−1.20−1.50−1.51−2.23+1.20−0.80−1.30−1.03+2.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 6 matches

Celtic

6+3.56+3.58−1.58+1.318+12.85+0.28+5.54−0.35−2.36−1.35+0.34+1.23−1.38+2.34−2.31−1.82−0.50−2.53+1.36+0.31−3.210.00−2.54+1.23+1.03+1.30−0.81+0.20−0.80−1.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 6 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.010.030.020.010.030.030.010.010.060.010.01−0.01−0.02−0.010.180.14LessMore

Celtic

0.010.010.020.020.050.010.040.060.060.080.060.100.090.030.100.050.040.020.030.120.080.34−0.01−0.03−0.010.55LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.18AttackSt. Mirren0.92 → 0.93Celtic2.28 → 2.21Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.34 → 1.31Celtic0.61 → 0.63

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six23%36%+13
11th11%7%−4
Bottom7%3%−4
Celtic
Title84%75%−9
Rangers
Title16%25%+9
St. Johnstone
Top six10%8%−2
11th18%23%+5
Bottom15%14%−1

From the forecast before the match (18 September 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenCeltic
Expected goals0.572.34
Win7%77%
Expected Points0.372.47
Clean sheet10%57%

St. Mirren 7%Draw 16%Celtic 77%

Most likely score 0–2, 15%. Both sides score 40%.

Celtic goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+6%7%3%2%3%8%8%7%4%2%1%2%2%2%1%12%15%12%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 September 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawCeltic win
St. Mirren
Top six23%36%28%21%
11th11%7%9%12%
Bottom7%3%5%7%
Celtic
Title84%75%79%86%
Rangers
Title16%25%21%14%
St. Johnstone
Top six10%8%10%10%
11th18%23%20%17%
Bottom15%14%16%15%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. L0–33 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.81–2.25
  2. W1–027 AugHibernian (H)xG 1.37–0.80
  3. W3–020 AugDundee United (A)xG 1.84–1.25
  4. W1–013 AugRoss County (H)xG 0.25–0.35
  5. L1–46 AugAberdeen (A)xG 0.93–3.37
  6. L0–131 JulMotherwell (H)xG 2.38–1.16

Celtic

  1. W4–03 SepRangers (H)xG 1.88–0.79
  2. W9–028 AugDundee United (A)xG 5.53–0.22
  3. W2–021 AugHearts (H)xG 2.55–0.29
  4. W5–014 AugKilmarnock (A)xG 3.34–0.69
  5. W3–16 AugRoss County (A)xG 1.75–0.39
  6. W2–031 JulAberdeen (H)xG 1.90–0.23

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenCeltic
Position8th1st
Played66
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠0–⁠36–⁠0–⁠0
Points9 (1.50 per game)18 (3.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.232.60
Goals6–⁠825–⁠1
xG per game1.26–⁠1.532.82–⁠0.44
Home: points, xG per game2.00, 1.33–⁠0.773.00, 2.11–⁠0.44
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.19–⁠2.293.00, 3.54–⁠0.43
ManagerSteve Robinson (10)Ange Postecoglou (44)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.18AttackSt. Mirren0.92, 9thCeltic2.28, 1stDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.34, 10thCeltic0.61, 1st

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepSt. Mirren attack: 0.92Celtic attack: 2.282.280.92CelticSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepSt. Mirren defence: 1.34Celtic defence: 0.611.340.61

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−8%+17%+142%−64%
Counter-attacks+233%−74%+135%−100%
Set pieces−31%−52%+147%−51%
Penalties+11%+233%−100%−100%
Headers+32%−24%+38%−47%
Left side−13%+13%+68%−40%
Centreaverage−2%+212%−70%
Right side+3%−20%+111%−75%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdCeltic concededLeft side−13%−75%Centreaverage−70%Right side+3%−40%Open play−8%−64%Counter-attacks+233%−100%Set pieces−31%−51%Headers+32%−47%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side+68%−20%Centre+212%−2%Right side+111%+13%Open play+142%+17%Counter-attacks+135%−74%Set pieces+147%−52%Headers+38%−24%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenCeltic

1.26xG2.82
1.53xG against0.44
38%Possession68%
11.5Shots20.7
12.2Shots against7.2
3.0Shots on target8.8
2.2Big chances3.8
272Passes602
62%Pass accuracy86%
6.3Corners7.8
44%Field tilt74%
32.5Final-third entries75.9
12.0Box entries23.0
17.6Passes per defensive action10.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level311.231.83
Ahead291.300.80
Behind301.261.93

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level202.750.36
Ahead702.840.46
Behind0––

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.101–0
16–300.140.400–2
31–450.240.301–3
46–600.280.243–0
61–750.150.160–1
76–900.360.331–2

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.400.035–0
16–300.300.130–0
31–450.730.147–0
46–600.520.074–1
61–750.220.021–0
76–900.650.048–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTCarson 6Strain 6Fraser 4Gallagher 5Shaughne… 3ShaughnessyDunne 6Tait 5Tanser 1Baccus 6Erhahon 6O'Hara 4Kiltie 2Ayunga 6Main 5Greive 15-3-2 in every start

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWHart 6Juranovic 6Carter-Vickers 6Jenz 3Starfelt 2Welsh 1Taylor 6O'Riley 6McGregor 6Hatate 3Turnbull 3Jota 3Abada 2Maeda 1Furuhashi 6Jota 3Maeda 34-3-3 in 5 of 6 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (5), 4-2-3-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
2 March 2022Celtic2–0St. MirrenxG 1.60–0.36
22 December 2021St. Mirren0–0CelticxG 0.29–1.68
21 August 2021Celtic6–0St. MirrenxG 4.93–0.23
10 February 2021St. Mirren0–4CelticxG 0.57–2.57
30 January 2021Celtic1–2St. MirrenxG 1.61–1.03
16 September 2020St. Mirren1–2CelticxG 1.12–2.18

6 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 1, Celtic won 4, and 1 was a draw. Goals 3–15 and xG 0.60–2.43 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Ayunga6492120.440.06
Strain6493010.060.20
Baccus6510100.160.02
Dunne6540000.020.05

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
O'Riley6469050.320.60
Jota6502440.350.53
Juranovic6532110.050.26
McGregor6540000.060.11

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.