Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

St. Johnstone 1–0 St. Mirren

Wednesday 6 December 2023, 19:45 · McDiarmid Park · Round 16 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Kevin Clancy · Attendance 2,449

St. Johnstone Kane 90+6'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. JohnstoneSt. Mirren
Goals10
xG1.981.93
Non-penalty xG1.191.93
Expected Points1.401.28

St. Johnstone 36%Draw 32%St. Mirren 32%

Most likely score 2–2, 18%. Final score 1–0, 1%.

St. Mirren goalsSt. Johnstone goals0123456+0123456+1%2%1%8%10%5%1%2%13%8%2%1%7%8%5%1%1%2%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTSprangler on for Kucheriavyi, 10'Kane on for Jaiyesimi, 62'McMenamin on for Flynn, 45+1'Bolton on for Tanser, 46'Olusanya on for Jamieson and Mandron on for Ayunga, 66'Baccus on for Kiltie, 76'Kane 90+6'St. Johnstone 1.98St. Mirren 1.9301230153045607590HTSprangler on for Kucheriavyi, 10'Kane on for Jaiyesimi, 62'McMenamin on for Flynn, 45+1'Bolton on for Tanser, 46'Olusanya on for Jamieson and Mandron on for Ayunga, 66'Baccus on for Kiltie, 76'Kane 90+6'1.981.93St. JohnstoneSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. JohnstoneSt. Mirren

1.98 +1.15xG1.93 +1.01
1.19Non-penalty xG1.93
1.96 +1.19xG on target1.58 +0.49
11 +1.4Shots13 +3.7
5 +2.6Shots on target5 +2.1
3 +2.0Big chances4 +2.1
18 0Touches in the opposition box18 +2
56% +14Possession44% 0
451 +130Passes347 +27
73% +9Pass accuracy60% −3
56% +18Field tilt44% +3
41 +15Final-third entries33 +2
11 +3.8Box entries10 +1.9
14.9 −2Passes per defensive action17.6 +1
0 −4.4Corners7 +2.8
15 −1Tackles15 +1
11 +1.2Interceptions5 −3.3
30 +5Clearances15 −10
5 +1.4Saves4 +1.1
9 −3Fouls10 −1
1 −0.3Offsides1 −0.7

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Johnstone

Smith 30', 0.29 xGCarey 45+5', 0.06 xGSmith 19', 0.03 xGSmith 40', 0.03 xGBrown 49', 0.03 xGGordon 49', 0.03 xGKane 78', 0.03 xGCarey 34', 0.02 xGKane 84', 0.02 xGKane 90+5', 0.65 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals79%0.94 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.94 xG, 1 goal7%0.08 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals14%0.17 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Mandron 72', 0.84 xGKiltie 47', 0.42 xGJamieson 24', 0.16 xGFraser 73', 0.12 xGAyunga 24', 0.08 xGOlusanya 72', 0.07 xGJamieson 60', 0.06 xGGogic 90+2', 0.05 xGFraser 25', 0.04 xGFraser 28', 0.03 xGO'Hara 86', 0.03 xGAyunga 54', 0.02 xGDunne 70', 0.02 xG44%0.84 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.84 xG, 0 goals47%0.90 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.90 xG, 0 goals7%0.14 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals3%0.05 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. JohnstoneSt. Mirren

0.43 6 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.67 8 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.02 1 shot, 0 goals
0.77 4 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.25 4 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 0 goalsPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
101 min (99%) · St. Johnstone 1.98, St. Mirren 1.93 xG
St. Johnstone ahead
1 min (1%) · St. Johnstone 0.00, St. Mirren 0.00 xG

Line-ups

15619234153221113MitovMcGowanGordonRobinsonBrownPhillipsKucheriavyiGallacherSmithCareyJaiyesimi10'62'St. Johnstone 3-4-1-2Craig Levein12213188615324117HemmingFraserGogicDunneFlynnO'HaraBoyd-MunceTanserJamiesonKiltieAyunga45+1'46'66'76'66'St. Mirren 3-4-2-1Stephen Robinson

St. Johnstone substitutes

  • 10' Sprangler for Kucheriavyi · yellow card 89'
  • 62' Kane for Jaiyesimi · penalty missed 90+6', goal 90+6', yellow card 90+6'

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 45+1' McMenamin for Flynn
  • 46' Bolton for Tanser
  • 66' Mandron for Ayunga
  • 66' Olusanya for Jamieson · yellow card 83'
  • 76' Baccus for Kiltie

Players

St. Johnstone

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MitovGK900.000.0000.0341
McGowanCB900.000.0100.09108
GordonCB900.030.0700.10413
RobinsonCB900.000.0200.09117
BrownRWB900.030.0110.0543
PhillipsCM900.000.0400.0547
KucheriavyiCM100.000.000−0.0100
GallacherLWB900.000.010−0.0316
SmithAM900.350.0210.0132
CareyST900.080.2730.24142
JaiyesimiST620.000.051−0.0710
Sprangler MF800.000.010−0.02110
Kane FW2811.490.000−0.0110

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HemmingGK900.000.0000.0540
FraserCB900.190.010−0.0754
GogicCB900.050.0100.0427
DunneCB900.020.0100.0764
FlynnRWB450.000.0410.0212
O'HaraCM900.030.0610.1842
Boyd-MunceCM900.000.1620.0235
TanserLWB460.000.0000.0131
JamiesonAM660.210.011−0.0110
KiltieAM760.420.0820.0443
AyungaST660.100.0000.0720
McMenaminFW450.000.0320.0741
BoltonDF440.000.0100.0344
MandronFW240.840.010−0.0101
Olusanya FW240.070.0010.0311
BaccusMF140.000.0300.0212

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

Hemming and Dunne: 3 passesDunne and Boyd-Munce: 3 passesDunne and Ayunga: 3 passesFraser and Boyd-Munce: 3 passesFraser and Jamieson: 3 passesFraser and Kiltie: 3 passesFlynn and Ayunga: 3 passesTanser and Kiltie: 3 passesTanser and Ayunga: 3 passesKiltie and Ayunga: 3 passesFraser and Ayunga: 4 passesO'Hara and Boyd-Munce: 4 passesJamieson and Ayunga: 4 passesGogic and Dunne: 5 passesFraser and Flynn: 5 passesTanser and Boyd-Munce: 5 passesDunne and Tanser: 6 passesFlynn and Jamieson: 6 passesBoyd-Munce and Kiltie: 8 passesFraser and O'Hara: 9 passesGogic and Fraser: 10 passesFlynn and O'Hara: 10 passesHemming: 1 completed passesGogic: 14 completed passesDunne: 16 completed passesFraser: 21 completed passesFlynn: 16 completed passesTanser: 10 completed passesO'Hara: 14 completed passesBoyd-Munce: 13 completed passesJamieson: 6 completed passesKiltie: 12 completed passesAyunga: 8 completed passes11318228361524117HemmingGogicDunneFraserFlynnTanserO'HaraBoyd-MunceJamiesonKiltieAyungaStarters until 45+1' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Johnstone

FromToPasses
GallacherRobinson14
McGowanBrown13
BrownCarey13
GordonMcGowan10
CareyPhillips10

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
FraserO'Hara12
O'HaraFraser8
KiltieBoyd-Munce6
FlynnO'Hara6
GogicFraser5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Johnstone

9+3.810+1.911−3.68−1.710+2.66−1.14−2.310+1.87−2.011+4.450.05+1.93−2.28+1.12−2.27+4.11−0.53+0.36+1.55+3.00−1.22+0.70−1.12−0.40−0.60−0.20−0.30−0.21+0.22−4.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 14 matches

St. Mirren

2−3.94−3.87−0.913+8.03−5.68−0.54−0.94−4.52−6.21−5.13−2.24+1.18+1.33−3.74+0.12−0.94+1.54+1.08+4.54+1.73+1.11+0.30−1.31−1.31+0.10−0.32+1.11+0.74+2.98−7.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 15 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Johnstone

0.010.020.010.020.010.010.020.070.020.010.030.020.090.060.010.050.080.06−0.02−0.03−0.01−0.05−0.07−0.010.14LessMore

St. Mirren

0.040.010.010.010.010.040.020.010.040.010.030.04−0.020.050.060.020.06−0.020.030.03−0.110.18LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackSt. Johnstone0.95 → 0.97St. Mirren1.02 → 1.02Defence (lower is better)St. Johnstone1.49 → 1.47St. Mirren1.43 → 1.43

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Johnstone
Top six4%7%+3
11th24%24%0
Bottom36%28%−8
St. Mirren
Top six57%48%−9
11th3%5%+2
Bottom1%2%+1
Livingston
Top six4%4%0
11th24%21%−3
Bottom33%37%+4
Motherwell
Top six11%12%+1
11th17%17%0
Bottom12%14%+2

From the forecast before the match (6 December 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. JohnstoneSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.271.06
Win40%30%
Expected Points1.511.20
Clean sheet35%28%

St. Johnstone 40%Draw 29%St. Mirren 30%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 48%.

St. Mirren goalsSt. Johnstone goals0123456+0123456+10%5%2%7%2%8%8%4%2%3%4%2%1%1%10%12%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 6 December 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Johnstone winDrawSt. Mirren win
St. Johnstone
Top six4%7%3%2%
11th24%24%25%24%
Bottom36%28%38%46%
St. Mirren
Top six57%48%57%71%
11th3%5%3%1%
Bottom1%2%1%<1%
Livingston
Top six4%4%5%4%
11th24%21%25%27%
Bottom33%37%31%29%
Motherwell
Top six11%12%11%11%
11th17%17%16%17%
Bottom12%14%12%10%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Johnstone

  1. L1–33 DecCeltic (H)xG 1.36–2.53
  2. L0–125 NovHearts (A)xG 0.85–1.44
  3. W1–011 NovRoss County (H)xG 0.69–0.21
  4. D2–27 NovMotherwell (H)xG 0.93–2.58
  5. W2–11 NovKilmarnock (H)xG 1.74–1.30
  6. L0–428 OctSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.74–1.52

St. Mirren

  1. L0–23 DecRangers (A)xG 0.14–1.75
  2. L0–128 NovRoss County (A)xG 0.24–0.66
  3. W1–025 NovLivingston (H)xG 0.81–0.59
  4. L0–411 NovDundee FC (A)xG 0.51–2.62
  5. D2–28 NovHibernian (H)xG 1.60–0.89
  6. L1–21 NovCeltic (A)xG 0.62–3.89

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. JohnstoneSt. Mirren
Position11th4th
Played1415
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠5–⁠76–⁠4–⁠5
Points11 (0.79 per game)22 (1.47 per game)
Expected Points per game0.771.04
Goals9–⁠2219–⁠21
xG per game0.83–⁠1.730.92–⁠1.49
Home: points, xG per game1.12, 1.04–⁠1.602.00, 1.26–⁠1.23
Away: points, xG per game0.33, 0.55–⁠1.891.00, 0.63–⁠1.71
ManagerCraig Levein (4)Stephen Robinson (10)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackSt. Johnstone0.95, 12thSt. Mirren1.02, 9thDefence (lower is better)St. Johnstone1.49, 12thSt. Mirren1.43, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecSt. Johnstone attack: 0.95St. Mirren attack: 1.021.020.95St. MirrenSt. JohnstoneDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecSt. Johnstone defence: 1.49St. Mirren defence: 1.431.491.43

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. JohnstoneSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−39%+27%−39%average
Counter-attacks−87%+134%+11%+45%
Set pieces+2%+32%−47%−14%
Penalties−100%−60%+12%+87%
Headers−2%+11%−17%−6%
Left side−34%+26%−42%−2%
Centre−23%+26%−45%+11%
Right side−49%+74%−18%−23%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Johnstone attacking

St. Johnstone createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−34%−23%Centre−23%+11%Right side−49%−2%Open play−39%averageCounter-attacks−87%+45%Set pieces+2%−14%Headers−2%−6%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdSt. Johnstone concededLeft side−42%+74%Centre−45%+26%Right side−18%+26%Open play−39%+27%Counter-attacks+11%+134%Set pieces−47%+32%Headers−17%+11%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. JohnstoneSt. Mirren

0.83xG0.92
1.73xG against1.49
42%Possession44%
9.6Shots9.3
15.3Shots against12.5
2.4Shots on target2.9
1.0Big chances1.9
18.0Touches in the opposition box15.5
321Passes320
64%Pass accuracy64%
4.4Corners4.2
38%Field tilt40%
25.6Final-third entries31.2
7.2Box entries8.1
17.1Passes per defensive action16.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Johnstone

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level500.741.10
Ahead150.942.31
Behind240.962.68

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level440.741.30
Ahead271.051.64
Behind191.181.73

xG by period

St. Johnstone

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.102–0
16–300.180.192–1
31–450.100.202–4
46–600.080.300–5
61–750.120.431–7
76–900.220.512–5

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.200.084–1
16–300.100.241–4
31–450.130.284–3
46–600.210.224–1
61–750.110.261–5
76–900.180.415–7

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Johnstone

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMAMSTMitov 14Brown 4Olufunwa 4McGowan 2Gordon 10McClelland 5McGowan 1Considine 10Robinson 2Robinson 8Jaiyesimi 1Considine 1Costelloe 4McGowan 2Wright 2Smith 7McGowan 2Carey 2Phillips 9Kucheriavyi 3Sprangler 2Carey 9Costelloe 2Kucheriavyi 1Smith 3Sprangler 3Turner-Cooke 2May 5Kane 3Costelloe 24-4-1-1 in 3 of 14 starts

Formations: 4-4-1-1 (3), 3-4-1-2 (3), 4-1-4-1 (3), 4-4-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (2), 3-5-2 (1)

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWHemming 15Fraser 15Gogic 15Taylor 13Dunne 2Strain 11Flynn 2McMenamin 2Boyd-Munce 9Baccus 9McMenamin 1O'Hara 9Kiltie 2Tanser 14O'Hara 1McMenamin 12Tanser 1O'Hara 1Mandron 7Olusanya 6Ayunga 2Kiltie 13Mandron 1Greive 13-4-3 in 9 of 15 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (9), 3-4-2-1 (3), 3-5-2 (2), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
28 October 2023St. Mirren4–0St. JohnstonexG 1.52–0.74
25 February 2023St. Johnstone1–1St. MirrenxG 0.39–1.59
9 November 2022St. Mirren2–2St. JohnstonexG 0.87–1.19
3 September 2022St. Johnstone3–0St. MirrenxG 2.25–0.81
30 April 2022St. Johnstone0–1St. MirrenxG 0.25–0.87
9 February 2022St. Mirren2–1St. JohnstonexG 2.22–1.02

11 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Johnstone won 3, St. Mirren won 4, and 4 were drawn. Goals 11–13 and xG 1.07–1.09 per game.

Key players

St. Johnstone

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kucheriavyi6571200.190.12
Carey121,080120.040.18
Kane5527000.160.04
Robinson121,080010.040.10

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Olusanya6590110.300.07
Mandron8665310.210.06
Kiltie151,180230.180.08
Strain11912110.120.11

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.