Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Hearts 0–1 Rangers

Wednesday 6 December 2023, 20:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 16 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee William Collum · Attendance 17,759

Rangers Sima 34'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsRangers
Goals01
xG1.032.53
Expected Points0.492.33

Hearts 10%Draw 18%Rangers 72%

Most likely score 1–2, 12%. Final score 0–1, 6%.

Rangers goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+2%6%8%4%2%2%8%6%2%1%4%6%5%3%1%1%2%2%9%12%10%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTVargas on for Atkinson and Oda on for Grant, 46'Forrest on for Tagawa, 65'McKay on for Kingsley, 85'Cifuentes on for Lawrence, 18'Roofe on for Danilo and Sterling on for Yilmaz, 71'Lammers on for Cantwell, 88'Sima 34'Rangers 2.53Hearts 1.0301230153045607590HTVargas on for Atkinson and Oda on for Grant, 46'Forrest on for Tagawa, 65'McKay on for Kingsley, 85'Cifuentes on for Lawrence, 18'Roofe on for Danilo and Sterling on for Yilmaz, 71'Lammers on for Cantwell, 88'Sima 34'2.531.03HeartsRangers

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsRangers

1.03 −0.13xG2.53 +0.05
0.68 −0.48xG on target0.98 −1.36
12 −2Shots22 +1
5 +0.9Shots on target5 −2.1
1 0.0Big chances6 +2.0
17 −11Touches in the opposition box34 −1
48% −10Possession52% −14
408 −71Passes439 −139
77% +1Pass accuracy79% −4
39% −18Field tilt61% −14
30 −15Final-third entries50 −11
4 −10Box entries19 +1
10.8 −2Passes per defensive action17.7 +7
6 −1.4Corners5 −1.7
16 +3Tackles18 +3
10 +3.6Interceptions2 −5.6
28 +8Clearances33 +20
3 +0.6Saves4 +2.0
13 +2Fouls11 0
0 −0.9Offsides3 +1.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Cochrane 24', 0.37 xGVargas 70', 0.13 xGGrant 44', 0.10 xGRowles 88', 0.10 xGShankland 24', 0.09 xGVargas 87', 0.06 xGShankland 11', 0.05 xGOda 82', 0.05 xGKent 87', 0.03 xGKent 28', 0.02 xGShankland 88', 0.02 xGKingsley 33', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals79%0.81 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 0.81 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals21%0.22 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.22 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Rangers

Danilo 51', 0.55 xGGoldson 63', 0.22 xGYilmaz 67', 0.18 xGDanilo 45+2', 0.15 xGCantwell 30', 0.14 xGGoldson 55', 0.14 xGDanilo 45+2', 0.08 xGSima 64', 0.08 xGSima 81', 0.07 xGMcCausland 21', 0.06 xGCantwell 40', 0.06 xGSima 30', 0.04 xGDanilo 41', 0.04 xGYilmaz 46', 0.04 xGYilmaz 56', 0.04 xGMcCausland 64', 0.04 xGMcCausland 84', 0.04 xGTavernier 90+1', 0.04 xGCifuentes 43', 0.03 xGLundstram 67', 0.03 xGMcCausland 45+2', 0.02 xGSima 34', 0.45 xG, goal30%0.77 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.77 xG, 0 goals33%0.83 xGCentral box: 10 shots, 0.83 xG, 0 goals31%0.79 xGWide in the box: 6 shots, 0.79 xG, 1 goal4%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals2%0.04 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsRangers

0.70 6 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.13 11 shots, 1 goal
0.05 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.04 1 shot, 0 goals
0.29 5 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces1.35 10 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
34 min (37%) · Hearts 0.54, Rangers 0.68 xG
Rangers ahead
59 min (63%) · Hearts 0.49, Rangers 1.85 xG

Line-ups

2832151386719930ClarkKingsleyKentRowlesAtkinsonNieuwenhofBaningimeGrantCochraneShanklandTagawaYellow card85'46'46'65'Hearts 3-5-2Steven Naismith12627341145131999ButlandTavernierGoldsonBalogunYilmazLundstramLawrenceMcCauslandCantwellSimaDaniloYellow cardGoal71'18'88'71'Rangers 4-2-3-1Philippe Clement

Hearts substitutes

  • 46' Vargas for Atkinson · yellow card 51'
  • 46' Oda for Grant
  • 65' Forrest for Tagawa · yellow card 90+1'
  • 85' McKay for Kingsley

Rangers substitutes

  • 18' Cifuentes for Lawrence
  • 71' Sterling for Yilmaz
  • 71' Roofe for Danilo
  • 88' Lammers for Cantwell

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0000.0330
KingsleyCB850.010.0400.04610
KentCB900.050.0000.03413
RowlesCB900.100.2200.261310
AtkinsonRWB460.000.1010.0928
NieuwenhofCM900.000.010−0.0305
BaningimeCM900.000.010−0.0317
GrantCM460.100.0220.0211
Cochrane LWB900.370.1520.0354
ShanklandST900.170.2820.2242
TagawaST650.000.0000.0221
Vargas MF440.190.0100.0100
OdaFW440.050.0100.0110
Forrest MF250.000.0420.1230
McKayFW50.000.0910.0830

Rangers

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ButlandGK900.000.0000.0221
TavernierRB9010.040.3930.12104
GoldsonCB900.360.0210.2186
BalogunCB900.000.1210.14211
Yilmaz LB710.270.1130.0767
LundstramDM900.030.0510.0843
LawrenceDM180.000.0000.0100
McCauslandRW900.150.0820.20103
CantwellAM880.200.1010.1363
SimaLW9010.640.0410.2357
DaniloST710.810.1020.0520
CifuentesMF720.030.0900.1039
SterlingDF190.000.0000.0214
RoofeFW190.000.0000.0110
LammersFW20.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Clark and Rowles: 3 passesRowles and Shankland: 3 passesKent and Cochrane: 3 passesAtkinson and Nieuwenhof: 3 passesCochrane and Tagawa: 3 passesKingsley and Nieuwenhof: 4 passesKingsley and Grant: 4 passesAtkinson and Grant: 4 passesAtkinson and Shankland: 4 passesCochrane and Baningime: 4 passesCochrane and Grant: 4 passesCochrane and Shankland: 5 passesBaningime and Grant: 5 passesRowles and Kent: 6 passesKent and Nieuwenhof: 6 passesKingsley and Baningime: 6 passesClark and Kent: 7 passesRowles and Grant: 8 passesRowles and Cochrane: 9 passesGrant and Shankland: 12 passesKent and Kingsley: 15 passesClark: 10 completed passesRowles: 15 completed passesKent: 21 completed passesKingsley: 19 completed passesAtkinson: 7 completed passesCochrane: 20 completed passesNieuwenhof: 12 completed passesBaningime: 13 completed passesGrant: 21 completed passesTagawa: 4 completed passesShankland: 14 completed passes2815231319867309ClarkRowlesKentKingsleyAtkinsonCochraneNieuwenhofBaningimeGrantTagawaShanklandStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
CochraneRowles14
KingsleyKent13
ClarkRowles12
KentClark10
KentKingsley9

Rangers

FromToPasses
TavernierGoldson15
LundstramYilmaz13
BalogunLundstram11
TavernierCifuentes11
CifuentesTavernier11

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

6+0.57−0.224+10.55−2.61−3.96−1.94−1.76+1.77−0.42−4.33−3.18+2.616+12.16+0.14−2.58+3.97+2.63−0.53−0.45−0.11−0.51−0.61−0.11−0.10−2.11+0.20−1.10−0.50−0.90−1.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 14 matches

Rangers

4+0.55+1.013+5.113+8.62−2.45−0.93−1.66+1.610+1.99+0.370.09+4.06+2.110+3.27−0.54−1.15+0.15+1.84+0.14−0.91−1.42−0.42−0.11−1.11−1.40−1.10−0.60−1.00−0.50−1.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 14 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.030.010.010.020.010.030.050.020.030.060.020.030.02−0.010.040.040.010.010.080.070.160.15LessMore

Rangers

0.010.020.020.010.030.020.020.040.070.030.060.130.030.020.150.03−0.020.110.030.07−0.040.030.290.22LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackHearts1.27 → 1.24Rangers2.30 → 2.29Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.27 → 1.29Rangers0.68 → 0.68

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Top six92%91%−1
Rangers
Title22%25%+3
Celtic
Title78%75%−3
Ross County
Top six21%22%+1
11th13%12%−1
Bottom8%8%0

From the forecast before the match (6 December 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsRangers
Expected goals0.802.04
Win13%66%
Expected Points0.612.18
Clean sheet13%45%

Hearts 13%Draw 21%Rangers 66%

Most likely score 0–2, 12%. Both sides score 48%.

Rangers goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+6%8%4%2%4%7%3%1%2%4%4%3%1%1%1%11%12%10%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 6 December 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawRangers win
Hearts
Top six92%97%95%91%
Rangers
Title22%14%17%25%
Celtic
Title78%86%83%75%
Ross County
Top six21%21%19%22%
11th13%13%14%12%
Bottom8%9%7%8%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. W1–02 DecKilmarnock (A)xG 0.73–1.16
  2. W1–025 NovSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.44–0.85
  3. W2–111 NovMotherwell (A)xG 2.08–1.10
  4. W1–01 NovLivingston (H)xG 1.91–0.21
  5. L1–229 OctRangers (A)xG 0.24–4.03
  6. L1–422 OctCeltic (H)xG 0.73–4.01

Rangers

  1. W2–03 DecSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.75–0.14
  2. D1–126 NovAberdeen (A)xG 2.64–0.60
  3. W2–012 NovLivingston (A)xG 2.68–0.13
  4. W5–01 NovDundee FC (A)xG 5.69–0.77
  5. W2–129 OctHearts (H)xG 4.03–0.24
  6. W4–021 OctHibernian (H)xG 2.69–0.45

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsRangers
Position3rd2nd
Played1414
Won, drawn, lost7–⁠2–⁠510–⁠1–⁠3
Points23 (1.64 per game)31 (2.21 per game)
Expected Points per game1.362.51
Goals14–⁠1229–⁠7
xG per game1.16–⁠1.402.48–⁠0.51
Home: points, xG per game1.57, 1.20–⁠1.262.14, 2.32–⁠0.61
Away: points, xG per game1.71, 1.12–⁠1.532.29, 2.63–⁠0.41
ManagerSteven Naismith (10)Philippe Clement (6)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackHearts1.27, 3rdRangers2.30, 2ndDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.27, 3rdRangers0.68, 1st

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecHearts attack: 1.27Rangers attack: 2.302.301.27RangersHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecHearts defence: 1.27Rangers defence: 0.681.270.68

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsRangers
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−4%−3%+88%−64%
Counter-attacks−25%−46%+51%−54%
Set pieces−7%−2%+23%−47%
Penalties−100%+56%+173%−100%
Headers−39%−8%+65%−56%
Left side−14%−6%+52%−35%
Centre−10%−9%+65%−67%
Right side+7%+1%+87%−69%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdRangers concededLeft side−14%−69%Centre−10%−67%Right side+7%−35%Open play−4%−64%Counter-attacks−25%−54%Set pieces−7%−47%Headers−39%−56%

Rangers attacking

Rangers createdHearts concededLeft side+52%+1%Centre+65%−9%Right side+87%−6%Open play+88%−3%Counter-attacks+51%−46%Set pieces+23%−2%Headers+65%−8%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsRangers

1.16xG2.48
1.40xG against0.51
58%Possession66%
14.1Shots21.0
12.6Shots against6.6
4.1Shots on target7.1
1.0Big chances4.0
28.2Touches in the opposition box35.1
479Passes578
76%Pass accuracy83%
7.4Corners6.7
57%Field tilt75%
44.9Final-third entries61.1
14.1Box entries17.9
12.6Passes per defensive action10.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.271.00
Ahead290.931.71
Behind181.301.80

Rangers

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level262.050.64
Ahead442.430.38
Behind203.110.62

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.070.192–2
16–300.230.303–2
31–450.060.160–0
46–600.170.331–1
61–750.340.086–3
76–900.290.332–4

Rangers

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.240.092–2
16–300.390.067–0
31–450.380.052–2
46–600.330.121–0
61–750.460.086–2
76–900.680.1011–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTClark 14Atkinson 5Kingsley 4Sibbick 4Kent 14Rowles 14Kingsley 7Boyce 3Cochrane 2Nieuwenhof 7Baningime 1Offiah 1Devlin 7Lowry 4Haring 4Oda 6Forrest 5Devlin 1Baningime 5Boyce 3Shankland 2Cochrane 5Vargas 4Lowry 3Shankland 11Boyce 1Vargas 14-2-3-1 in 8 of 14 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (8), 3-5-2 (5), 4-3-3 (1)

Rangers

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTButland 14Tavernier 14Goldson 13Souttar 6Balogun 5Davies 4Barisic 9Yilmaz 4Sterling 1Lundstram 9Cifuentes 5Raskin 6Cantwell 3Jack 3Lammers 4McCausland 2Wright 2Lammers 5Lundstram 2Cantwell 2Sima 9Lawrence 1Danilo 1Dessers 10Danilo 3Roofe 14-2-3-1 in 8 of 14 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (8), 4-3-3 (4), 4-3-1-2 (2)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
29 October 2023Rangers2–1HeartsxG 4.03–0.24
24 May 2023Rangers2–2HeartsxG 2.85–1.17
1 February 2023Hearts0–3RangersxG 0.86–3.07
9 November 2022Rangers1–0HeartsxG 1.82–0.50
1 October 2022Hearts0–4RangersxG 0.41–1.85
14 May 2022Hearts1–3RangersxG 0.62–1.22

9 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 0, Rangers won 7, and 2 were drawn. Goals 5–23 and xG 0.65–2.76 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Boyce7631130.360.20
Shankland141,260600.390.16
Lowry8613010.120.27
Forrest6583200.140.15

Rangers

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Danilo4458410.970.09
Dessers10725400.700.11
Sima9915710.530.20
Tavernier141,255720.450.28

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.