Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

St. Mirren 2–0 Kilmarnock

Saturday 6 February 2021, 15:00 · Simple Digital Arena · Round 28 · Half-time 1–0

St. Mirren McAllister 38', Obika 61'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenKilmarnock
Goals20
xG1.560.49
Expected Points2.210.54

St. Mirren 65%Draw 25%Kilmarnock 10%

Most likely score 1–0, 21%. Final score 2–0, 18%.

Kilmarnock goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+11%5%1%12%2%9%2%8%4%1%2%1%21%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTConnolly on for McAllister, 67'Flynn on for Durmus, 84'Mulumbu on for Tshibola and Burke on for Pierrick, 62'Pinnock on for Whitehall and Kabamba on for Kiltie, 79'McAllister 38'Obika 61'St. Mirren 1.56Kilmarnock 0.4900.511.520153045607590HTConnolly on for McAllister, 67'Flynn on for Durmus, 84'Mulumbu on for Tshibola and Burke on for Pierrick, 62'Pinnock on for Whitehall and Kabamba on for Kiltie, 79'McAllister 38'Obika 61'1.560.49St. MirrenKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenKilmarnock

1.56 +0.45xG0.49 −0.54
1.62 +0.69xG on target0.03 −0.97
14 +2Shots12 +2
5 +1.6Shots on target1 −2.0
3 +1.9Big chances0 −1.0
30 +12Touches in the opposition box9 −9
50% +4Possession50% +5
392 +37Passes393 +34
70% +3Pass accuracy66% −2
55% +12Field tilt45% −1
35 +2Final-third entries35 −1
17 +9.0Box entries6 −3.1
11.1 −3Passes per defensive action13.8 −1
3 −2.0Corners3 −1.9
14 0Tackles10 −3
12 0Interceptions8 −4
19 −1Clearances14 −3
1 −2.4Saves3 +0.8
10 −2Fouls15 +3
2 +0.3Offsides0 −2.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

McGrath 44', 0.29 xGMcGrath 44', 0.29 xGMcAllister 25', 0.09 xGObika 72', 0.09 xGShaughnessy 88', 0.08 xGMcGrath 45+1', 0.06 xGObika 39', 0.05 xGConnolly 89', 0.04 xGMcAllister 19', 0.03 xGMcGrath 20', 0.03 xGFraser 68', 0.03 xGMcGrath 78', 0.03 xGObika 61', 0.40 xG, goalMcAllister 38', 0.06 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals62%0.96 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.96 xG, 2 goals27%0.42 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.42 xG, 0 goals6%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals5%0.08 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Pinnock 79', 0.08 xGPierrick 47', 0.06 xGWhitehall 58', 0.06 xGWhitehall 7', 0.04 xGPower 70', 0.04 xGDicker 70', 0.04 xGMedley 28', 0.03 xGPower 70', 0.03 xGMedley 71', 0.03 xGBurke 87', 0.03 xGMcKenzie 5', 0.02 xGPower 47', 0.02 xG12%0.06 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.06 xG, 0 goals33%0.16 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.16 xG, 0 goals12%0.06 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.06 xG, 0 goals37%0.18 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals6%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenKilmarnock

1.43 12 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.24 5 shots, 0 goals
0.13 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.25 7 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
38 min (42%) · St. Mirren 0.21, Kilmarnock 0.09 xG
St. Mirren ahead
53 min (58%) · St. Mirren 1.35, Kilmarnock 0.40 xG

Line-ups

26225427251110179LynessFraserMcCarthyShaughnessyTaitDoyle-HayesErhahonDurmusMcAllisterMcGrathObikaYellow cardGoalGoal84'67'St. Mirren 3-4-2-1Jim Goodwin161482436277101512DoyleRossiDickerMedleyHaunstrupPowerTshibolaMcKenzieKiltiePierrickWhitehallYellow cardYellow cardYellow card62'79'62'79'Kilmarnock 4-2-3-1Andy Millen

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 67' Connolly for McAllister
  • 84' Flynn for Durmus

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 62' Burke for Pierrick · yellow card 74'
  • 62' Mulumbu for Tshibola
  • 79' Pinnock for Whitehall
  • 79' Kabamba for Kiltie

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LynessGK900.000.0000.0332
FraserCB900.030.1210.34135
McCarthyCB900.000.0000.0115
ShaughnessyCB900.080.0010.06511
TaitRWB900.000.0810.2343
Doyle-Hayes CM900.000.1040.14611
ErhahonCM900.000.0400.0975
DurmusLWB8410.000.1910.2052
McAllisterAM6710.180.0710.0260
McGrathAM900.690.0500.1133
ObikaST9010.540.0400.0631
ConnollyMF230.040.0100.0620
FlynnMF60.000.0000.0001

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DoyleGK900.000.0000.0230
RossiRB900.000.0100.0462
DickerCB900.040.0000.0327
MedleyCB900.050.051−0.1246
Haunstrup LB900.000.1220.1474
PowerDM900.100.1100.1361
Tshibola DM620.000.000−0.0104
McKenzieRW900.020.0210.0232
KiltieAM790.000.0410.0223
PierrickLW620.060.0000.0012
Whitehall ST790.100.000−0.0101
Burke MF280.030.0800.0450
MulumbuMF280.000.0100.0120
PinnockMF110.080.000−0.0200
KabambaFW110.000.000––0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

Lyness and Shaughnessy: 4 passesMcCarthy and Erhahon: 4 passesDurmus and Obika: 4 passesErhahon and McAllister: 4 passesTait and McAllister: 5 passesDoyle-Hayes and Erhahon: 5 passesErhahon and Obika: 5 passesMcAllister and Obika: 5 passesLyness and Fraser: 6 passesMcCarthy and Doyle-Hayes: 6 passesFraser and Tait: 6 passesFraser and Obika: 6 passesDurmus and Doyle-Hayes: 6 passesShaughnessy and McCarthy: 7 passesMcGrath and McAllister: 7 passesShaughnessy and Doyle-Hayes: 8 passesShaughnessy and Durmus: 9 passesShaughnessy and Erhahon: 9 passesDoyle-Hayes and McAllister: 9 passesMcCarthy and Fraser: 10 passesMcGrath and Obika: 10 passesErhahon and McGrath: 11 passesShaughnessy and McGrath: 12 passesFraser and McAllister: 12 passesDurmus and Erhahon: 12 passesFraser and Doyle-Hayes: 23 passesLyness: 14 completed passesShaughnessy: 31 completed passesMcCarthy: 18 completed passesFraser: 38 completed passesTait: 8 completed passesDurmus: 20 completed passesDoyle-Hayes: 34 completed passesErhahon: 27 completed passesMcGrath: 24 completed passesMcAllister: 19 completed passesObika: 14 completed passes26452221172517109LynessShaughnessyMcCarthyFraserTaitDurmusDoyle-HayesErhahonMcGrathMcAllisterObikaStarters until 67' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Kilmarnock

Doyle and Rossi: 3 passesHaunstrup and Power: 3 passesHaunstrup and Kiltie: 4 passesTshibola and Pierrick: 4 passesKiltie and Pierrick: 4 passesDoyle and Medley: 5 passesDoyle and Whitehall: 5 passesMedley and Power: 5 passesMcKenzie and Kiltie: 5 passesDicker and Medley: 6 passesMedley and Haunstrup: 6 passesHaunstrup and Tshibola: 6 passesHaunstrup and Pierrick: 6 passesRossi and Power: 7 passesRossi and Tshibola: 8 passesDicker and Tshibola: 8 passesPower and Kiltie: 8 passesMedley and Tshibola: 9 passesPower and McKenzie: 9 passesPower and Tshibola: 10 passesRossi and McKenzie: 12 passesDoyle: 8 completed passesRossi: 23 completed passesDicker: 13 completed passesMedley: 19 completed passesHaunstrup: 16 completed passesPower: 21 completed passesTshibola: 25 completed passesMcKenzie: 14 completed passesKiltie: 11 completed passesPierrick: 9 completed passesWhitehall: 5 completed passes161482436277101512DoyleRossiDickerMedleyHaunstrupPowerTshibolaMcKenzieKiltiePierrickWhitehallStarters until 62' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
Doyle-HayesFraser16
ShaughnessyErhahon10
FraserObika9
FraserDoyle-Hayes9
FraserMcCarthy8

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
HaunstrupMcKenzie10
MedleyPower7
PowerMcKenzie7
TshibolaPower7
KiltiePower6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

3−2.03−2.811−2.64−2.61−4.212+4.54−4.78+0.75−3.47−0.47+2.18+1.56+1.54−1.16+0.212+7.83−0.24+1.16+2.77+2.92−0.24+2.41−0.120.03+0.610.00−0.21+0.10−0.40−0.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 24 matches

Kilmarnock

1−2.56−0.311−2.38+0.77+0.44−2.56−1.110+3.615+6.17−1.12−1.99+3.72−2.02−2.87+1.54+0.83−0.54+1.34+0.84+0.12+0.10−1.80−1.61−0.44+2.10−0.81+0.72+1.30−0.40−0.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 26 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.010.010.010.030.020.010.030.020.040.030.030.030.070.010.070.010.190.010.100.100.050.05−0.070.040.170.28LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.010.020.010.030.010.020.010.010.020.030.010.050.01−0.010.03−0.02−0.020.03−0.01−0.17−0.020.080.14LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.19AttackSt. Mirren1.04 → 1.06Kilmarnock0.98 → 0.96Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.20 → 1.17Kilmarnock1.29 → 1.31

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six75%87%+12
11th<1%<1%0
Kilmarnock
Top six4%1%−3
11th13%18%+5
Bottom3%5%+2
St. Johnstone
Top six10%6%−4
11th2%2%0
Ross County
11th43%40%−3
Bottom21%21%0

From the forecast before the match (6 February 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenKilmarnock
Expected goals1.181.02
Win39%31%
Expected Points1.471.23
Clean sheet36%31%

St. Mirren 39%Draw 30%Kilmarnock 31%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 45%.

Kilmarnock goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+6%2%7%2%8%8%4%1%3%3%2%12%11%12%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 6 February 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawKilmarnock win
St. Mirren
Top six75%87%73%60%
11th<1%<1%0%1%
Kilmarnock
Top six4%1%2%9%
11th13%18%13%7%
Bottom3%5%3%1%
St. Johnstone
Top six10%6%11%16%
11th2%2%3%3%
Ross County
11th43%40%44%47%
Bottom21%21%21%22%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. L1–22 FebHibernian (H)xG 0.65–1.60
  2. W2–130 JanCeltic (A)xG 1.03–1.61
  3. W5–127 JanDundee United (A)xG 3.25–1.23
  4. L0–116 JanSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.30–1.06
  5. D1–19 JanMotherwell (H)xG 1.51–1.85
  6. D1–12 JanKilmarnock (A)xG 0.52–0.97

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–42 FebCeltic (H)xG 1.87–2.13
  2. L2–330 JanSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.17–2.14
  3. L0–227 JanLivingston (A)xG 0.59–1.10
  4. L0–216 JanHibernian (A)xG 0.64–0.68
  5. W2–09 JanHamilton Academical (H)xG 1.50–0.43
  6. D1–12 JanSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.97–0.52

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenKilmarnock
Position6th10th
Played2426
Won, drawn, lost8–⁠5–⁠117–⁠3–⁠16
Points29 (1.21 per game)24 (0.92 per game)
Expected Points per game1.251.15
Goals24–⁠2826–⁠37
xG per game1.11–⁠1.251.03–⁠1.35
Home: points, xG per game0.91, 1.19–⁠1.131.08, 1.20–⁠1.39
Away: points, xG per game1.46, 1.04–⁠1.350.77, 0.85–⁠1.31
ManagerJim Goodwin (24)Andy Millen (1)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.19AttackSt. Mirren1.04, 8thKilmarnock0.98, 9thDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.20, 7thKilmarnock1.29, 8th

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebSt. Mirren attack: 1.04Kilmarnock attack: 0.981.040.98KilmarnockSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebSt. Mirren defence: 1.20Kilmarnock defence: 1.291.291.20

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−23%+11%−32%+1%
Counter-attacks−4%−100%−87%−72%
Set pieces+3%−9%+5%+25%
Penalties−4%−28%+11%+11%
Headers−18%+19%−2%−1%
Left side−5%+2%−20%+16%
Centre−11%−17%−26%+2%
Right side−28%+34%−24%−1%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−5%−1%Centre−11%+2%Right side−28%+16%Open play−23%+1%Counter-attacks−4%−72%Set pieces+3%+25%Headers−18%−1%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−20%+34%Centre−26%−17%Right side−24%+2%Open play−32%+11%Counter-attacks−87%−100%Set pieces+5%−9%Headers−2%+19%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenKilmarnock

1.11xG1.03
1.25xG against1.35
46%Possession45%
11.6Shots10.0
12.5Shots against13.5
3.4Shots on target3.0
1.1Big chances1.0
18.0Touches in the opposition box17.7
355Passes359
67%Pass accuracy68%
5.0Corners4.9
43%Field tilt46%
33.2Final-third entries36.2
8.0Box entries9.1
14.1Passes per defensive action15.1

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level391.121.24
Ahead201.311.29
Behind310.971.23

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level420.951.17
Ahead211.091.63
Behind271.091.42

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.173–2
16–300.160.254–8
31–450.240.185–6
46–600.100.222–5
61–750.130.242–6
76–900.320.188–1

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.164–4
16–300.140.224–7
31–450.200.146–2
46–600.210.205–7
61–750.220.284–6
76–900.160.343–11

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMCMLMSTAlnwick 21Zlamal 3Fraser 21Tait 1MacPherson 1McCarthy 23Shaughnessy 21Foley 3Tait 1Tait 18Fraser 2Obika 2McAllister 7Connolly 7McGrath 3McGrath 19MacPhers… 7MacPhersonSheron 6Doyle-H… 10Doyle-HayesBrophy 1Dennis 1Erhahon 16Foley 7Connolly 1Durmus 8Mason 5Obika 3Obika 8Erwin 8Dennis 34-5-1 in 8 of 24 starts

Formations: 4-5-1 (8), 4-1-4-1 (4), 4-4-2 (3), 4-3-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (2), 3-5-1-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWRogers 24Doyle 1Eastwood 1Millen 11McGowan 11Rossi 3Broadfoot 22Rossi 3Findlay 21Dikamona 6Waters 16Haunstrup 9Tshibola 1Power 21Kabamba 6Burke 2Dicker 14McKenzie 3Kiltie 2Tshibola 22Mulumbu 3Pinnock 1Burke 18McKenzie 2Pinnock 2Kabamba 12Brophy 6Oakley 3McKenzie 9Kiltie 9Pinnock 54-3-3 in 10 of 26 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (10), 4-4-2 (8), 4-2-3-1 (3), 4-4-1-1 (2), 4-1-4-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 4-5-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
2 January 2021Kilmarnock1–1St. MirrenxG 0.97–0.52
26 September 2020St. Mirren0–1KilmarnockxG 0.49–0.65

2 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 0, Kilmarnock won 1, and 1 was a draw. Goals 1–2 and xG 0.51–0.81 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Obika141,331400.350.06
McGrath242,005510.210.15
Morias7664000.250.09
Erwin9916200.260.06

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Burke211,810730.250.22
Brophy8637200.320.02
Kabamba181,688520.280.02
Pinnock8817030.060.23

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.