Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Ross County 1–0 St. Mirren

Tuesday 28 November 2023, 19:45 · Global Energy Stadium · Round 9 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee William Collum · Attendance 3,758

Ross County White 84'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Ross CountySt. Mirren
Goals10
xG0.660.24
Expected Points1.710.80

Ross County 41%Draw 49%St. Mirren 11%

Most likely score 0–0, 40%. Final score 1–0, 30%.

St. Mirren goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+9%9%8%2%40%30%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.750153045607590HTTurner on for Dhanda, 74'Samuel on for Murray, 83'Ayunga on for Mandron, 60'Nachmani on for Greive, 72'Flynn on for Kiltie, 82'Boyd-Munce on for Baccus, 83'White 84'Ross County 0.66St. Mirren 0.2400.250.50.750153045607590HTTurner on for Dhanda, 74'Samuel on for Murray, 83'Ayunga on for Mandron, 60'Nachmani on for Greive, 72'Flynn on for Kiltie, 82'Boyd-Munce on for Baccus, 83'White 84'0.660.24Ross CountySt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Ross CountySt. Mirren

0.66 −0.20xG0.24 −0.80
1.00 +0.19xG on target0.46 −0.69
6 −4.2Shots6 −3.9
2 −1.4Shots on target1 −2.0
2 +0.4Big chances1 −1.1
15 −2Touches in the opposition box14 −3
47% +4Possession53% +9
323 −1Passes358 +40
56% −7Pass accuracy59% −5
47% +3Field tilt53% +12
31 +2Final-third entries35 +3
10 +1.3Box entries10 +1.6
21.0 +6Passes per defensive action8.4 −8
7 +2.1Corners5 +0.9
17 +4Tackles19 +6
9 +0.2Interceptions8 0.0
38 +16Clearances30 +5
1 −3.1Saves1 −1.9
11 −1Fouls14 +3
2 0.0Offsides0 −1.9

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Ross County

Randall 59', 0.30 xGRandall 55', 0.08 xGWhite 4', 0.03 xGAllardice 5', 0.03 xGRandall 27', 0.01 xGWhite 84', 0.22 xG, goal33%0.22 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.22 xG, 1 goal47%0.31 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.31 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals20%0.13 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Gogic 38', 0.11 xGGogic 44', 0.04 xGMcMenamin 81', 0.03 xGTanser 26', 0.02 xGAyunga 88', 0.02 xGAyunga 90+1', 0.02 xG46%0.11 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.11 xG, 0 goals25%0.06 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals29%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Ross CountySt. Mirren

0.44 5 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.07 3 shots, 0 goals
0.22 1 shot, 1 goalSet pieces0.17 3 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
84 min (90%) · Ross County 0.66, St. Mirren 0.20 xG
Ross County ahead
9 min (10%) · Ross County 0.00, St. Mirren 0.04 xG

Line-ups

1355424263102615LaidlawNightingaleBaldwinLeakBrownRandallAllardicePurringtonDhandaWhiteMurrayGoal74'83'Ross County 3-4-1-2Derek Adams122131810617113921HemmingFraserGogicDunneMcMenaminO'HaraBaccusKiltieTanserMandronGreiveYellow card83'82'60'72'St. Mirren 3-5-2Stephen Robinson

Ross County substitutes

  • 74' Turner for Dhanda
  • 83' Samuel for Murray

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 60' Ayunga for Mandron
  • 72' Nachmani for Greive
  • 82' Flynn for Kiltie · yellow card 90+3'
  • 83' Boyd-Munce for Baccus

Players

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LaidlawGK900.000.0000.0330
NightingaleCB900.000.0000.0448
BaldwinCB900.000.1200.12413
LeakCB900.000.0100.05713
BrownRWB9010.000.2010.0877
RandallCM900.390.0600.1323
AllardiceCM900.030.0200.0336
PurringtonLWB900.000.0500.0959
DhandaAM740.000.0200.1060
WhiteST9010.250.051−0.0504
MurrayST830.000.011−0.0212
TurnerMF160.000.010−0.0510
SamuelFW70.000.0000.0210

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HemmingGK900.000.0000.0533
FraserCB900.000.0710.1046
GogicCB900.150.0100.06612
DunneCB900.000.0100.0454
McMenaminRWB900.030.2010.3463
O'Hara CM900.000.0200.0027
BaccusCM830.000.0200.0325
KiltieCM820.000.1210.0336
TanserLWB900.020.070−0.0184
MandronST600.000.010−0.0203
GreiveST720.000.0100.0321
AyungaFW300.040.0000.0012
NachmaniFW180.000.0100.0100
Flynn MF80.000.0100.0001
Boyd-MunceMF70.000.0500.0611

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Ross County

Laidlaw and Purrington: 4 passesLaidlaw and White: 4 passesBaldwin and Purrington: 4 passesBaldwin and Dhanda: 4 passesNightingale and Allardice: 4 passesRandall and Allardice: 4 passesRandall and White: 4 passesDhanda and White: 4 passesLaidlaw and Leak: 5 passesNightingale and Randall: 5 passesLeak and White: 5 passesAllardice and Purrington: 5 passesAllardice and Dhanda: 5 passesBaldwin and Leak: 6 passesBaldwin and White: 6 passesNightingale and Dhanda: 6 passesBrown and Randall: 6 passesRandall and Dhanda: 6 passesPurrington and Dhanda: 6 passesDhanda and Murray: 7 passesBrown and Dhanda: 8 passesBrown and Murray: 10 passesLeak and Purrington: 11 passesNightingale and Brown: 12 passesLaidlaw: 14 completed passesBaldwin: 19 completed passesNightingale: 18 completed passesLeak: 23 completed passesBrown: 22 completed passesRandall: 13 completed passesAllardice: 14 completed passesPurrington: 16 completed passesDhanda: 19 completed passesWhite: 13 completed passesMurray: 9 completed passes1535424263102615LaidlawBaldwinNightingaleLeakBrownRandallAllardicePurringtonDhandaWhiteMurrayStarters until 74' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

St. Mirren

Hemming and Greive: 3 passesGogic and O'Hara: 3 passesDunne and Mandron: 3 passesFraser and Baccus: 3 passesFraser and Mandron: 3 passesMcMenamin and Tanser: 3 passesMcMenamin and Mandron: 3 passesBaccus and Mandron: 3 passesBaccus and Greive: 3 passesKiltie and Greive: 3 passesTanser and Mandron: 4 passesKiltie and O'Hara: 4 passesKiltie and Mandron: 4 passesO'Hara and Greive: 4 passesGogic and Tanser: 5 passesDunne and Tanser: 5 passesFraser and McMenamin: 5 passesO'Hara and Mandron: 5 passesMcMenamin and Baccus: 6 passesTanser and Kiltie: 6 passesBaccus and O'Hara: 8 passesMcMenamin and O'Hara: 10 passesTanser and Baccus: 10 passesBaccus and Kiltie: 10 passesGogic and Fraser: 15 passesHemming: 5 completed passesGogic: 18 completed passesDunne: 9 completed passesFraser: 21 completed passesMcMenamin: 13 completed passesTanser: 13 completed passesBaccus: 26 completed passesKiltie: 18 completed passesO'Hara: 20 completed passesMandron: 13 completed passesGreive: 5 completed passes113182210317116921HemmingGogicDunneFraserMcMenaminTanserBaccusKiltieO'HaraMandronGreiveStarters until 60' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Ross County

FromToPasses
BaldwinWhite9
NightingaleBrown8
PurringtonLeak6
LeakPurrington6
NightingaleDhanda6

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
FraserMcMenamin10
FraserGogic10
KiltieTanser6
DunneTanser6
GogicFraser6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Ross County

6+1.35−2.215+3.013+2.96+0.86−1.97+0.74−1.87−1.116+5.81−3.84−0.81−1.93−1.213+7.72−3.41−3.50−2.71−3.56+1.23−0.10−1.90−0.81−0.84+1.61−0.30−0.62+1.12+1.70−0.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 13 matches

St. Mirren

9+3.411+3.212+4.54−1.28−1.15−3.62−3.28−0.310+2.16−0.32−3.82−0.95−1.67+3.15+2.13+0.52−1.11−2.56+3.93+1.20−0.80−1.34+1.61+0.10−0.32+1.11+0.82+0.910−5.71−6.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 13 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Ross County

0.010.020.010.040.030.020.010.040.070.010.050.060.030.010.030.02−0.01−0.10−0.010.070.16LessMore

St. Mirren

0.020.030.010.020.010.010.010.030.020.050.010.010.060.010.010.100.02−0.020.11−0.21−0.010.270.20LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackRoss County0.99 → 1.00St. Mirren1.07 → 1.05Defence (lower is better)Ross County1.52 → 1.48St. Mirren1.41 → 1.42

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Ross County
Top six8%12%+4
11th21%19%−2
Bottom22%15%−7
St. Mirren
Top six71%62%−9
11th2%3%+1
Bottom1%1%0
Livingston
11th23%23%0
Bottom31%33%+2
Kilmarnock
Top six56%57%+1

From the forecast before the match (28 November 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Ross CountySt. Mirren
Expected goals1.301.13
Win40%32%
Expected Points1.481.24
Clean sheet32%27%

Ross County 40%Draw 29%St. Mirren 32%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 50%.

St. Mirren goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+9%9%6%2%7%3%7%8%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%11%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 28 November 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowRoss County winDrawSt. Mirren win
Ross County
Top six8%12%6%4%
11th21%19%21%24%
Bottom22%15%24%28%
St. Mirren
Top six71%62%71%82%
11th2%3%1%1%
Bottom1%1%<1%<1%
Livingston
11th23%23%23%23%
Bottom31%33%31%29%
Kilmarnock
Top six56%57%55%54%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Ross County

  1. D0–025 NovKilmarnock (H)xG 0.88–0.65
  2. L0–111 NovSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.21–0.69
  3. L0–34 NovCeltic (H)xG 0.26–3.40
  4. D2–231 OctHibernian (A)xG 0.52–0.50
  5. D3–328 OctMotherwell (A)xG 1.92–2.34
  6. D0–024 OctDundee FC (A)xG 0.32–0.96

St. Mirren

  1. W1–025 NovLivingston (H)xG 0.81–0.59
  2. L0–411 NovDundee FC (A)xG 0.51–2.62
  3. D2–28 NovHibernian (H)xG 1.60–0.89
  4. L1–21 NovCeltic (A)xG 0.62–3.89
  5. W4–028 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.52–0.74
  6. L0–38 OctRangers (H)xG 0.03–2.05

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Ross CountySt. Mirren
Position10th3rd
Played1313
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠5–⁠66–⁠4–⁠3
Points11 (0.85 per game)22 (1.69 per game)
Expected Points per game0.941.12
Goals11–⁠2119–⁠18
xG per game0.86–⁠1.621.04–⁠1.53
Home: points, xG per game0.83, 0.92–⁠1.282.00, 1.26–⁠1.23
Away: points, xG per game0.86, 0.81–⁠1.911.33, 0.78–⁠1.88
ManagerDerek Adams (1)Stephen Robinson (8)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackRoss County0.99, 10thSt. Mirren1.07, 9thDefence (lower is better)Ross County1.52, 12thSt. Mirren1.41, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovRoss County attack: 0.99St. Mirren attack: 1.071.070.99St. MirrenRoss CountyDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovRoss County defence: 1.52St. Mirren defence: 1.411.521.41

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Ross CountySt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−25%+20%−31%−1%
Counter-attacks−64%+80%+23%+60%
Set pieces−29%−7%−43%−11%
Penalties−100%+23%+23%+105%
Headers−25%−26%−8%−15%
Left side−8%+7%−34%+1%
Centre−49%+23%−37%+10%
Right side−9%+20%−12%−19%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−8%−19%Centre−49%+10%Right side−9%+1%Open play−25%−1%Counter-attacks−64%+60%Set pieces−29%−11%Headers−25%−15%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdRoss County concededLeft side−34%+20%Centre−37%+23%Right side−12%+7%Open play−31%+20%Counter-attacks+23%+80%Set pieces−43%−7%Headers−8%−26%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Ross CountySt. Mirren

0.86xG1.04
1.62xG against1.53
43%Possession44%
10.2Shots9.9
15.5Shots against12.4
3.4Shots on target3.0
1.6Big chances2.1
16.6Touches in the opposition box17.0
324Passes318
63%Pass accuracy64%
4.9Corners4.1
44%Field tilt42%
28.5Final-third entries32.2
8.7Box entries8.4
15.3Passes per defensive action16.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level550.851.11
Ahead101.792.15
Behind260.522.51

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level410.881.35
Ahead311.051.64
Behind181.381.77

xG by period

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.180.100–0
16–300.130.330–5
31–450.080.391–4
46–600.150.214–3
61–750.130.213–4
76–900.180.393–5

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.230.074–1
16–300.110.271–4
31–450.130.284–2
46–600.230.214–1
61–750.130.271–4
76–900.200.445–6

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Ross County

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTLaidlaw 13Nightingale 7Loturi 2Dhanda 1Baldwin 13Leak 12Harmon 1Brown 12Randall 1Randall 11Turner 4Allardice 5Loturi 4Dhanda 2Purrington 5Harmon 4Reid 3Dhanda 7Sims 2Loturi 2White 10Brophy 2Murray 12Dhanda 1Sims 13-4-1-2 in 6 of 13 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (6), 4-4-2 (3), 4-3-1-2 (2), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWHemming 13Fraser 13Gogic 13Taylor 12Dunne 1Strain 11McMenamin 1Flynn 1Baccus 9McMenamin 1Kiltie 1Boyd-Munce 8O'Hara 7Tanser 12O'Hara 1McMenamin 11Tanser 1O'Hara 1Mandron 6Olusanya 6Ayunga 1Kiltie 12Mandron 13-4-3 in 8 of 13 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (8), 3-4-2-1 (3), 3-5-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
18 February 2023St. Mirren1–0Ross CountyxG 2.34–0.63
5 November 2022Ross County3–2St. MirrenxG 1.14–0.59
13 August 2022St. Mirren1–0Ross CountyxG 0.25–0.35
5 March 2022Ross County1–0St. MirrenxG 1.23–0.31
1 December 2021St. Mirren0–0Ross CountyxG 1.89–0.93
16 October 2021Ross County2–3St. MirrenxG 1.15–1.10

10 league meetings since 2020/21: Ross County won 2, St. Mirren won 6, and 2 were drawn. Goals 8–14 and xG 1.07–1.32 per game.

Key players

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Murray12907310.240.07
White10796200.230.04
Dhanda12887020.020.23
Loturi8654100.180.05

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Olusanya6571110.310.07
Mandron7605310.230.06
Kiltie131,020230.200.08
O'Hara9810210.210.07

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.