Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Dundee FC 1–2 Hibernian

Saturday 25 November 2023, 15:00 · The Scot Foam Stadium at Dens Park · Round 14 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Don Robertson · Attendance 6,652

Dundee FC Beck 86'

Hibernian Tavares 16', Miller 58' · Miller sent off 63'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Dundee FCHibernian
Goals12
xG1.420.84
Expected Points1.790.91

Dundee FC 50%Draw 30%Hibernian 20%

Most likely score 1–1, 15%. Final score 1–2, 6%.

Hibernian goalsDundee FC goals0123456+0123456+9%8%3%6%1%10%10%5%5%5%2%1%1%14%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTMiller (Hibernian), second yellow card 63'Reilly on for Lamie, 71'Robinson on for Bakayoko and Tiffoney on for Cameron, 76'Youan on for Campbell and Jeggo on for Levitt, 57'Hanlon on for Vente, 65'Doidge on for Boyle, 76'Beck 86'Tavares 16'Miller 58'Dundee FC 1.42Hibernian 0.8400.511.50153045607590HTMiller (Hibernian), second yellow card 63'Reilly on for Lamie, 71'Robinson on for Bakayoko and Tiffoney on for Cameron, 76'Youan on for Campbell and Jeggo on for Levitt, 57'Hanlon on for Vente, 65'Doidge on for Boyle, 76'Beck 86'Tavares 16'Miller 58'1.420.84Dundee FCHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Dundee FCHibernian

1.42 +0.02xG0.84 −0.30
2.03 +0.51xG on target1.59 +0.41
19 +8Shots10 −2
7 +2.8Shots on target3 −1.1
2 −0.2Big chances2 0.0
22 +3Touches in the opposition box20 −4
45% +4Possession55% +3
373 +60Passes460 +44
80% +14Pass accuracy84% +8
55% +18Field tilt45% −3
56 +26Final-third entries36 0
11 +2.4Box entries8 −4.2
24.3 +8Passes per defensive action19.4 +4
7 +2.4Corners3 −1.8
14 −2Tackles11 −4
7 −3.6Interceptions7 −0.9
9 −19Clearances20 −2
1 −1.9Saves6 +3.8
6 −4.5Fouls9 −0.4
2 +0.4Offsides2 +0.7

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Dundee FC

Lamie 65', 0.24 xGBakayoko 65', 0.19 xGBakayoko 15', 0.15 xGMcCowan 26', 0.15 xGRudden 61', 0.10 xGBakayoko 31', 0.09 xGBeck 85', 0.08 xGReilly 90+1', 0.07 xGMcCowan 22', 0.05 xGMcCowan 52', 0.04 xGMcCowan 69', 0.03 xGMcCowan 90+2', 0.03 xGMcCowan 22', 0.02 xGBeck 61', 0.02 xGMcGhee 70', 0.02 xGMcCowan 90', 0.02 xGBoateng 90+6', 0.02 xGMcCowan 90+2', 0.01 xGBeck 85', 0.10 xG, goal17%0.24 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.24 xG, 0 goals38%0.55 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.55 xG, 0 goals33%0.47 xGWide in the box: 6 shots, 0.47 xG, 1 goal8%0.12 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals3%0.05 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

Campbell 13', 0.10 xGCampbell 44', 0.10 xGBoyle 52', 0.07 xGTavares 87', 0.04 xGVente 2', 0.03 xGTavares 48', 0.03 xGHanlon 68', 0.03 xGObita 10', 0.02 xGTavares 16', 0.23 xG, goalMiller 58', 0.18 xG, goal22%0.18 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.18 xG, 1 goal64%0.53 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.53 xG, 1 goal4%0.03 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals11%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Dundee FCHibernian

0.86 11 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.63 8 shots, 1 goal
0.57 8 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.21 2 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
16 min (17%) · Dundee FC 0.15, Hibernian 0.38 xG
Hibernian ahead
80 min (83%) · Dundee FC 1.28, Hibernian 0.45 xG

Line-ups

312951261023173920CarsonPortalesShaughnessyLamieMcGheeCameronBoatengMcCowanBeckBakayokoRuddenYellow cardGoalYellow card71'76'76'Dundee FC 3-5-2Tony Docherty12533213261129109MarshallMillerFishBushiriObitaCampbellLevittNewellTavaresBoyleVenteGoalYellow cardSent off, second yellowYellow cardGoal57'57'76'65'Hibernian 4-4-2Nick Montgomery

Dundee FC substitutes

  • 71' Reilly for Lamie
  • 76' Tiffoney for Cameron
  • 76' Robinson for Bakayoko

Hibernian substitutes

  • 57' Jeggo for Levitt
  • 57' Youan for Campbell
  • 65' Hanlon for Vente
  • 76' Doidge for Boyle

Players

Dundee FC

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
CarsonGK900.000.0000.0110
Portales CB900.000.0300.1056
ShaughnessyCB900.000.0100.0444
LamieCB710.240.0210.0763
McGheeRWB900.020.020−0.0353
CameronCM760.000.0410.0551
BoatengCM900.020.0210.0214
McCowanCM900.350.2230.4096
Beck LWB9010.210.1530.0963
BakayokoST760.430.022−0.0211
RuddenST900.100.1120.0701
ReillyMF190.070.0710.1361
TiffoneyFW140.000.1000.1431
RobinsonFW140.000.000−0.0400

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarshallGK900.000.0000.0310
Miller RB6310.180.0100.15114
FishCB900.000.0100.0758
Bushiri CB900.000.0000.0556
ObitaLB900.020.1010.1397
CampbellRM570.210.000−0.0110
LevittCM570.000.0100.0212
NewellCM9010.000.1110.0554
TavaresLM9010.300.1020.0582
BoyleST760.070.0730.1040
VenteST6510.030.1710.0511
JeggoMF330.000.0000.0002
YouanFW330.000.0310.0334
HanlonDF250.030.0000.0112
DoidgeFW140.000.0000.0002

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Dundee FC

Carson and Lamie: 4 passesLamie and Cameron: 4 passesCameron and McCowan: 4 passesShaughnessy and Boateng: 5 passesLamie and Boateng: 5 passesPortales and Bakayoko: 5 passesMcGhee and Bakayoko: 5 passesCameron and Bakayoko: 5 passesCameron and Rudden: 5 passesBakayoko and Rudden: 5 passesPortales and Cameron: 6 passesMcGhee and Boateng: 6 passesBeck and Cameron: 6 passesMcCowan and Bakayoko: 6 passesLamie and McCowan: 7 passesMcGhee and McCowan: 7 passesBoateng and McCowan: 7 passesShaughnessy and Portales: 8 passesBoateng and Cameron: 8 passesMcCowan and Rudden: 8 passesShaughnessy and Lamie: 9 passesPortales and McGhee: 9 passesPortales and Boateng: 9 passesBeck and McCowan: 9 passesLamie and Beck: 11 passesMcGhee and Cameron: 20 passesCarson: 9 completed passesShaughnessy: 20 completed passesLamie: 21 completed passesPortales: 22 completed passesMcGhee: 26 completed passesBeck: 21 completed passesBoateng: 25 completed passesCameron: 32 completed passesMcCowan: 22 completed passesBakayoko: 13 completed passesRudden: 9 completed passes315122963231017920CarsonShaughnessyLamiePortalesMcGheeBeckBoatengCameronMcCowanBakayokoRuddenStarters until 71' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Hibernian

Fish and Newell: 5 passesFish and Boyle: 5 passesCampbell and Newell: 5 passesTavares and Vente: 5 passesMarshall and Miller: 6 passesMarshall and Levitt: 6 passesFish and Campbell: 6 passesNewell and Tavares: 6 passesBushiri and Tavares: 7 passesNewell and Levitt: 7 passesBushiri and Newell: 8 passesMiller and Campbell: 9 passesMiller and Levitt: 9 passesFish and Levitt: 9 passesMiller and Newell: 10 passesObita and Newell: 10 passesMarshall and Fish: 11 passesMiller and Boyle: 12 passesBushiri and Levitt: 12 passesObita and Tavares: 12 passesBushiri and Obita: 16 passesBushiri and Fish: 18 passesMiller and Fish: 25 passesMarshall and Bushiri: 29 passesMarshall: 29 completed passesMiller: 36 completed passesBushiri: 50 completed passesFish: 44 completed passesObita: 30 completed passesCampbell: 15 completed passesNewell: 36 completed passesLevitt: 33 completed passesTavares: 18 completed passesBoyle: 12 completed passesVente: 9 completed passes12335213211629109MarshallMillerBushiriFishObitaCampbellNewellLevittTavaresBoyleVenteStarters until 57' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Dundee FC

FromToPasses
BeckMcCowan13
McGheeCameron11
CameronMcGhee9
McGheePortales9
BoatengPortales9

Hibernian

FromToPasses
BushiriMarshall20
MarshallBushiri15
FishMiller14
MillerFish13
FishBushiri13

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Dundee FC

4−1.57−1.45−5.53−6.24−4.81−6.37+1.24−3.63−6.77−0.550.06+2.08+3.88+2.14−1.24+0.33+1.25+1.23−0.43+0.52+0.21+0.11−0.20−3.51+0.10−0.61+0.60−0.50−0.86−13.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 12 matches

Hibernian

1−4.813+6.512−4.19+1.21−4.55−2.54−2.612+6.510+2.26−2.01−3.52−0.95−1.53−2.33−3.53−0.22+0.11−2.45+2.32+0.41−0.32+1.50−1.82−0.11+0.50−0.30−0.20−0.41+0.32−5.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 13 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Dundee FC

0.010.010.020.020.060.020.030.020.040.100.050.060.060.080.080.040.040.12−0.03−0.070.040.21LessMore

Hibernian

0.020.010.010.020.010.020.020.060.050.050.040.040.030.01−0.010.060.030.02−0.05−0.020.01−0.020.110.030.17LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackDundee FC1.09 → 1.09Hibernian1.23 → 1.22Defence (lower is better)Dundee FC1.51 → 1.49Hibernian1.25 → 1.25

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Dundee FC
Top six39%28%−11
11th8%11%+3
Bottom5%8%+3
Hibernian
Top six62%74%+12
11th2%1%−1
Bottom1%<1%−1

From the forecast before the match (25 November 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Dundee FCHibernian
Expected goals1.261.28
Win36%36%
Expected Points1.351.37
Clean sheet28%28%

Dundee FC 36%Draw 28%Hibernian 36%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 52%.

Hibernian goalsDundee FC goals0123456+0123456+9%9%6%3%9%8%3%1%6%8%5%2%3%3%2%1%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 25 November 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowDundee FC winDrawHibernian win
Dundee FC
Top six39%51%39%28%
11th8%6%8%11%
Bottom5%3%5%8%
Hibernian
Top six62%51%61%74%
11th2%3%3%1%
Bottom1%2%1%<1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Dundee FC

  1. W4–011 NovSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.62–0.51
  2. W1–05 NovLivingston (H)xG 0.67–1.49
  3. L0–51 NovRangers (H)xG 0.77–5.69
  4. W2–028 OctLivingston (A)xG 2.02–0.14
  5. D0–024 OctRoss County (H)xG 0.96–0.32
  6. D0–030 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.55–2.62

Hibernian

  1. W1–011 NovKilmarnock (H)xG 0.41–0.46
  2. D2–28 NovSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.89–1.60
  3. D2–231 OctRoss County (H)xG 0.50–0.52
  4. D0–028 OctCeltic (H)xG 0.57–1.49
  5. L0–421 OctRangers (A)xG 0.45–2.69
  6. D2–27 OctHearts (A)xG 1.32–1.25

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Dundee FCHibernian
Position5th7th
Played1213
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠5–⁠33–⁠6–⁠4
Points17 (1.42 per game)15 (1.15 per game)
Expected Points per game1.331.32
Goals14–⁠1518–⁠20
xG per game1.40–⁠1.851.14–⁠1.14
Home: points, xG per game1.71, 1.38–⁠1.881.29, 1.30–⁠0.98
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.43–⁠1.791.00, 0.94–⁠1.32
ManagerTony Docherty (12)Nick Montgomery (9)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackDundee FC1.09, 8thHibernian1.23, 4thDefence (lower is better)Dundee FC1.51, 11thHibernian1.25, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDundee FC attack: 1.09Hibernian attack: 1.231.231.09HibernianDundee FCDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDundee FC defence: 1.51Hibernian defence: 1.251.511.25

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Dundee FCHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−13%+38%−13%−15%
Counter-attacks+17%+32%−52%−10%
Set pieces+37%+22%+1%−26%
Penalties−9%+37%−58%−16%
Headers+1%+75%−11%−15%
Left side+8%+30%+4%−3%
Centre+10%+44%−29%−33%
Right side−17%+14%+3%average

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Dundee FC attacking

Dundee FC createdHibernian concededLeft side+8%averageCentre+10%−33%Right side−17%−3%Open play−13%−15%Counter-attacks+17%−10%Set pieces+37%−26%Headers+1%−15%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdDundee FC concededLeft side+4%+14%Centre−29%+44%Right side+3%+30%Open play−13%+38%Counter-attacks−52%+32%Set pieces+1%+22%Headers−11%+75%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Dundee FCHibernian

1.40xG1.14
1.85xG against1.14
41%Possession52%
11.4Shots11.5
14.6Shots against13.5
4.2Shots on target4.1
2.2Big chances2.0
19.3Touches in the opposition box24.4
313Passes416
67%Pass accuracy76%
4.6Corners4.8
37%Field tilt48%
30.4Final-third entries36.5
8.6Box entries12.2
16.8Passes per defensive action15.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Dundee FC

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level521.111.41
Ahead181.711.90
Behind201.872.95

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level450.981.22
Ahead231.280.97
Behind221.301.16

xG by period

Dundee FC

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.180–2
16–300.130.302–1
31–450.280.242–2
46–600.360.293–2
61–750.220.303–3
76–900.300.524–5

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.162–2
16–300.180.130–3
31–450.150.123–1
46–600.210.212–2
61–750.160.257–6
76–900.330.274–6

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Dundee FC

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTCarson 11McCracken 1Portales 7McGhee 3Kerr 2Shaughnessy 12Lamie 8Ashcroft 2Donnelly 1McGhee 5McCowan 2Robertson 2McCowan 8Robertson 2Mulligan 2Cameron 6Sylla 3Beck 2Boateng 11Beck 9Tiffoney 2McCowan 1Bakayoko 11Robinson 4Rudden 5Beck 1McCowan 13-5-2 in 4 of 12 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (4), 4-1-4-1 (2), 5-3-2 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 3-5-1-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMarshall 12Wollacott 1Miller 9Fish 1Whittaker 1Fish 12Bushiri 8Hanlon 5Stevenson 1Obita 7Stevenson 5Levitt 1Boyle 5Youan 4Tavares 2Jeggo 10Levitt 3Doyle-Hayes 1Newell 12Youan 6Boyle 3Tavares 3Doidge 5Le Fondre 4Boyle 2Vente 11Campbell 3Delferriere 14-4-2 in 8 of 13 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (8), 4-3-3 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
30 September 2023Hibernian0–0Dundee FCxG 2.62–0.55
10 May 2022Dundee FC3–1HibernianxG 1.48–0.99
2 March 2022Dundee FC0–0HibernianxG 0.20–0.58
14 December 2021Hibernian1–0Dundee FCxG 1.14–0.62
22 August 2021Dundee FC2–2HibernianxG 0.76–2.47

5 league meetings since 2020/21: Dundee FC won 1, Hibernian won 1, and 3 were drawn. Goals 5–4 and xG 0.72–1.56 per game.

Key players

Dundee FC

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Robinson6504100.590.04
Rudden5510200.480.02
Bakayoko11998320.340.06
McCowan121,071220.120.17

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Le Fondre4506310.410.02
Youan10966220.250.13
Boyle10943110.140.17
Hanlon5476010.190.06

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.