Digressive Celts

Matches › 2021/22

Hearts 3–1 Hibernian

Saturday 9 April 2022, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 33 · Half-time 1–1 · Referee Nick Walsh · Attendance 19,041

Hearts Halliday 45+1', 58', Kingsley 47'

Hibernian Wright 5'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsHibernian
Goals31
xG0.940.52
Expected Points1.680.93

Hearts 43%Draw 39%Hibernian 18%

Most likely score 0–0, 23%. Final score 3–1, 2%.

Hibernian goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+12%3%14%3%10%6%1%3%2%23%22%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.7510153045607590HTMcEneff on for Halliday, 67'Moore on for Atkinson, 83'Ginnelly on for McKay and Mackay-Steven on for Simms, 88'Campbell on for Wright, 38'Scott on for Doig and Jasper on for Melkersen, 60'Henderson on for Doyle-Hayes, 70'Halliday 45+1'Kingsley 47'Halliday 58'Wright 5'Hearts 0.94Hibernian 0.5200.250.50.7510153045607590HTMcEneff on for Halliday, 67'Moore on for Atkinson, 83'Ginnelly on for McKay and Mackay-Steven on for Simms, 88'Campbell on for Wright, 38'Scott on for Doig and Jasper on for Melkersen, 60'Henderson on for Doyle-Hayes, 70'Halliday 45+1'Kingsley 47'Halliday 58'Wright 5'0.940.52HeartsHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsHibernian

0.94 −0.46xG0.52 −0.63
2.14 +0.72xG on target0.33 −0.76
15 +2Shots9 −3
4 −0.6Shots on target1 −2.5
3 +1.1Big chances0 −1.4
20 −4Touches in the opposition box13 −6
58% +2Possession42% −12
424 −21Passes313 −108
74% −1Pass accuracy73% −3
50% −5Field tilt50% −3
35 −9Final-third entries31 −8
10 −3Box entries8 −3
9.6 −4Passes per defensive action12.3 −1
5 −0.7Corners1 −4.7
16 +1Tackles16 +2
8 −0.1Interceptions17 +7.7
8 −9Clearances13 −4
0 −3.7Saves1 −1.5
11 0Fouls13 +1
1 −1.0Offsides1 −1.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Simms 24', 0.21 xGSimms 66', 0.17 xGAtkinson 30', 0.11 xGMcKay 22', 0.04 xGCochrane 74', 0.04 xGHalliday 30', 0.03 xGHalliday 36', 0.03 xGSimms 53', 0.03 xGMcKay 73', 0.03 xGCochrane 4', 0.02 xGMcEneff 69', 0.02 xGGinnelly 89', 0.02 xGKingsley 47', 0.08 xG, goalHalliday 45+1', 0.07 xG, goalHalliday 58', 0.05 xG, goal19%0.18 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.18 xG, 1 goal44%0.41 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.41 xG, 0 goals18%0.17 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.17 xG, 1 goal12%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.11 xG, 1 goal7%0.07 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

Melkersen 42', 0.18 xGMelkersen 10', 0.14 xGJasper 80', 0.04 xGCadden 50', 0.03 xGWright 7', 0.02 xGDoig 9', 0.02 xGDoyle-Hayes 39', 0.02 xGCampbell 41', 0.02 xGWright 5', 0.05 xG, goal35%0.18 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.18 xG, 0 goals27%0.14 xGCentral box: 1 shot, 0.14 xG, 0 goals13%0.07 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 1 goal21%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals4%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsHibernian

0.51 8 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.49 8 shots, 1 goal
0.21 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.22 6 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.02 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
8 min (9%) · Hearts 0.09, Hibernian 0.05 xG
Hearts ahead
43 min (47%) · Hearts 0.36, Hibernian 0.07 xG
Hibernian ahead
41 min (45%) · Hearts 0.48, Hibernian 0.40 xG

Line-ups

1211931251617101820GordonSibbickHalkettKingsleyAtkinsonHaringHallidayCochraneBoyceMcKaySimmsGoalYellow cardGoalGoal83'67'88'88'Hearts 3-4-2-1Robbie Neilson13343272211281434MaceyBushiriHanlonDoigCaddenDoyle-HayesNewellClarkeWrightMuellerMelkersenYellow cardYellow cardGoalYellow card60'70'38'60'Hibernian 3-4-2-1Shaun Maloney

Hearts substitutes

  • 67' McEneff for Halliday
  • 83' Moore for Atkinson
  • 88' Mackay-Steven for Simms
  • 88' Ginnelly for McKay

Hibernian substitutes

  • 38' Campbell for Wright
  • 60' Scott for Doig
  • 60' Jasper for Melkersen
  • 70' Henderson for Doyle-Hayes

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0340
SibbickCB900.000.0100.0563
HalkettCB900.000.0000.0427
KingsleyCB9010.080.0110.0783
AtkinsonRWB830.110.0300.10106
Haring CM9010.000.1610.1731
HallidayCM6720.180.0110.0212
CochraneLWB900.060.0910.1476
BoyceAM900.000.0200.0204
McKayAM8810.070.2740.1180
SimmsST880.410.0000.0510
McEneffMF230.020.0000.0011
MooreDF70.000.0000.0003
Mackay-StevenFW20.000.0000.0000
GinnellyFW20.020.0000.0210

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MaceyGK900.000.0000.0112
Bushiri CB900.000.0000.0339
HanlonCB900.000.0000.0229
DoigCB600.020.0000.0136
CaddenRWB900.030.2310.2854
Doyle-Hayes CM700.020.0100.0436
NewellCM900.000.3120.1463
ClarkeLWB9010.000.0620.0886
WrightAM3810.070.0100.0011
Mueller AM900.000.0320.0032
MelkersenST600.320.001−0.0100
CampbellMF520.020.0000.0110
ScottFW300.000.0000.0101
JasperFW300.040.0000.0321
HendersonMF200.000.0700.0710

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Gordon and Cochrane: 4 passesSibbick and Haring: 4 passesKingsley and McKay: 4 passesKingsley and Boyce: 4 passesHalkett and Atkinson: 4 passesMcKay and Simms: 4 passesGordon and Sibbick: 5 passesGordon and Kingsley: 5 passesSibbick and McKay: 5 passesHalkett and Haring: 5 passesAtkinson and Halliday: 5 passesGordon and Halkett: 6 passesSibbick and Kingsley: 6 passesSibbick and Halliday: 6 passesHalliday and McKay: 6 passesKingsley and Haring: 7 passesCochrane and Simms: 7 passesCochrane and McKay: 8 passesKingsley and Halliday: 9 passesHalkett and Cochrane: 9 passesHalkett and Halliday: 11 passesCochrane and Haring: 13 passesSibbick and Halkett: 17 passesSibbick and Atkinson: 19 passesKingsley and Halkett: 26 passesKingsley and Cochrane: 29 passesGordon: 15 completed passesSibbick: 31 completed passesKingsley: 44 completed passesHalkett: 44 completed passesAtkinson: 25 completed passesCochrane: 42 completed passesHaring: 23 completed passesHalliday: 25 completed passesMcKay: 17 completed passesBoyce: 6 completed passesSimms: 8 completed passes1213191217516181020GordonSibbickKingsleyHalkettAtkinsonCochraneHaringHallidayMcKayBoyceSimmsStarters until 67' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Hibernian

Macey and Doig: 3 passesDoig and Clarke: 3 passesDoig and Newell: 3 passesHanlon and Newell: 3 passesCadden and Mueller: 3 passesCadden and Wright: 3 passesDoyle-Hayes and Newell: 3 passesDoyle-Hayes and Mueller: 3 passesDoig and Hanlon: 4 passesCadden and Doyle-Hayes: 4 passesClarke and Wright: 4 passesDoyle-Hayes and Wright: 4 passesNewell and Mueller: 5 passesMacey and Hanlon: 6 passesMacey: 8 completed passesBushiri: 3 completed passesDoig: 8 completed passesHanlon: 9 completed passesCadden: 8 completed passesClarke: 7 completed passesDoyle-Hayes: 9 completed passesNewell: 9 completed passesMueller: 9 completed passesWright: 7 completed passesMelkersen: 3 completed passes13334272221114834MaceyBushiriDoigHanlonCaddenClarkeDoyle-HayesNewellMuellerWrightMelkersenStarters until 38' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
CochraneKingsley19
KingsleyHalkett16
KingsleyCochrane16
HalkettKingsley15
HalkettSibbick11

Hibernian

FromToPasses
CaddenCampbell9
CaddenMueller7
CaddenDoyle-Hayes7
NewellCadden7
MaceyHanlon6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

6+1.67+2.05−0.31−3.310+3.75−1.73−3.58+1.72−4.08+1.96+0.21−3.73−3.36+0.73−1.46+2.24+0.65+1.55+1.18+5.51−0.91−0.40−1.52−0.21+0.51+0.61+0.50−0.41+0.13−8.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 32 matches

Hibernian

6+1.43−1.68−3.86+0.43−1.75−1.76−1.013+7.710+1.970.08+2.15−0.28+4.43−3.97+1.74−1.23−0.53+0.84+0.88+3.81−1.31−0.60−1.01−0.18+5.50−1.10−0.10−0.90−0.32+1.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 32 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.010.010.010.040.030.030.030.010.060.040.050.030.010.030.070.020.140.010.010.20LessMore

Hibernian

0.010.010.010.010.010.040.010.020.020.010.020.010.120.040.010.06−0.010.01−0.030.100.030.03−0.010.18LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.15AttackHearts1.27 → 1.28Hibernian1.08 → 1.08Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.17 → 1.17Hibernian0.99 → 1.01

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hibernian
Top six41%13%−28
11th<1%1%+1
Aberdeen
Top six38%53%+15
Motherwell
Top six58%66%+8

From the forecast before the match (9 April 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsHibernian
Expected goals1.271.02
Win42%29%
Expected Points1.541.16
Clean sheet36%28%

Hearts 42%Draw 29%Hibernian 29%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 47%.

Hibernian goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+10%5%2%7%2%8%8%4%1%3%4%2%1%1%11%12%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 9 April 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawHibernian win
Hibernian
Top six41%13%26%>99%
11th<1%1%<1%–
Aberdeen
Top six38%53%54%–
Motherwell
Top six58%66%55%48%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. D1–12 AprRoss County (A)xG 1.80–2.62
  2. W2–019 MarLivingston (H)xG 1.20–0.61
  3. D2–25 MarDundee United (A)xG 0.77–1.28
  4. W2–02 MarAberdeen (H)xG 1.15–0.92
  5. W2–026 FebSt. Mirren (A)xG 3.13–0.11
  6. L1–219 FebSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.56–0.69

Hibernian

  1. D1–12 AprDundee United (H)xG 1.51–0.46
  2. L1–319 MarAberdeen (A)xG 0.55–2.19
  3. D0–05 MarSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.99–0.44
  4. D0–02 MarDundee FC (A)xG 0.58–0.20
  5. D0–027 FebCeltic (H)xG 0.13–0.94
  6. W2–019 FebRoss County (H)xG 1.00–0.19

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsHibernian
Position3rd6th
Played3232
Won, drawn, lost15–⁠9–⁠89–⁠11–⁠12
Points54 (1.69 per game)38 (1.19 per game)
Expected Points per game1.541.44
Goals45–⁠3230–⁠34
xG per game1.40–⁠1.281.15–⁠1.04
Home: points, xG per game2.06, 1.60–⁠0.981.41, 1.14–⁠0.93
Away: points, xG per game1.31, 1.21–⁠1.570.93, 1.16–⁠1.16
ManagerRobbie Neilson (32)Shaun Maloney (14)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.15AttackHearts1.27, 3rdHibernian1.08, 5thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.17, 6thHibernian0.99, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprHearts attack: 1.27Hibernian attack: 1.081.271.08HibernianHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprHearts defence: 1.17Hibernian defence: 0.991.170.99

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+13%+16%−1%−20%
Counter-attacks+109%−40%+55%+12%
Set pieces−12%+12%−31%−10%
Penalties+78%−56%+11%+11%
Headers−9%−21%−18%+1%
Left side+35%+5%average−14%
Centre−20%+8%−14%−12%
Right side+43%+29%+2%−28%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdHibernian concededLeft side+35%−28%Centre−20%−12%Right side+43%−14%Open play+13%−20%Counter-attacks+109%+12%Set pieces−12%−10%Headers−9%+1%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdHearts concededLeft sideaverage+29%Centre−14%+8%Right side+2%+5%Open play−1%+16%Counter-attacks+55%−40%Set pieces−31%+12%Headers−18%−21%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsHibernian

1.40xG1.15
1.28xG against1.04
56%Possession54%
13.2Shots11.7
12.8Shots against10.5
4.6Shots on target3.5
1.9Big chances1.4
23.9Touches in the opposition box18.8
445Passes421
75%Pass accuracy76%
5.7Corners5.7
55%Field tilt53%
43.9Final-third entries39.3
12.6Box entries11.0
13.1Passes per defensive action13.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level431.531.20
Ahead301.450.91
Behind171.012.10

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level511.150.90
Ahead171.061.12
Behind221.221.30

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.210.197–6
16–300.150.156–2
31–450.270.219–6
46–600.310.207–6
61–750.280.2610–8
76–900.180.276–4

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.142–7
16–300.120.174–6
31–450.200.158–4
46–600.200.196–6
61–750.240.184–4
76–900.230.196–7

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWGordon 31Stewart 1Souttar 26Moore 8Atkinson 3Halkett 26Sibbick 5Kingsley 23Cochrane 4Smith 16Atkinson 5Moore 4Devlin 22McEneff 1Woodburn 1Baningime 23Haring 14Halliday 2Cochrane 15Halliday 11Kingsley 5McKay 13Ginnelly 8Woodburn 4Boyce 15Simms 8Ginnelly 4Mackay-Steven 12McKay 9Woodburn 73-4-3 in 19 of 32 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (19), 4-2-3-1 (5), 3-4-2-1 (5), 3-4-1-2 (3)

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTMacey 26Dabrowski 6McGinn 11Bushiri 10Boyle 9Porteous 26Wood 1Hanlon 19Stevenson 7McGregor 5Cadden 21McGinn 9Doig 1Doyle-Hayes 27Cadden 2Stevenson 2Newell 19Campbell 8Gogic 3Doig 21Stevenson 6Mitchell 2Campbell 10Henderson 5Allan 4Nisbet 25Doidge 6Melkersen 2Boyle 11Murphy 8Jasper 53-4-1-2 in 12 of 32 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (12), 4-2-3-1 (8), 3-4-2-1 (5), 4-4-1-1 (2), 3-5-2 (2), 4-3-3 (1), 4-5-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
1 February 2022Hibernian0–0HeartsxG 1.02–1.37
12 September 2021Hearts0–0HibernianxG 1.23–1.09

2 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 0, Hibernian won 0, and 2 were drawn. Goals 0–0 and xG 1.30–1.06 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Simms8816300.590.05
Boyce232,020920.520.10
McKay252,197280.160.32
McEneff6481100.280.17

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Boyle201,781730.310.21
Murphy8801210.320.19
Henderson5472000.250.24
Doidge6712200.370.06

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.