Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Dundee FC 1–0 Livingston

Sunday 5 November 2023, 14:00 · The Scot Foam Stadium at Dens Park · Round 16 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Alan James Muir · Attendance 4,769

Dundee FC McCowan 57'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Dundee FCLivingston
Goals10
xG0.671.49
Expected Points0.722.00

Dundee FC 15%Draw 28%Livingston 57%

Most likely score 0–1, 17%. Final score 1–0, 7%.

Livingston goalsDundee FC goals0123456+0123456+10%6%2%7%10%5%1%2%4%4%1%17%14%14%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTBoateng on for Sylla, 46'Robinson on for Bakayoko and Howley on for Cameron, 71'Donnelly on for Beck, 90'Mackay on for Lloyd-McGoldrick, 51'Anderson on for Stephen Kelly, 61'Nottingham on for Welch-Hayes and Sangare on for Holt, 66'Parkes on for Nottingham, 90+7'McCowan 57'Livingston 1.49Dundee FC 0.6700.511.520153045607590HTBoateng on for Sylla, 46'Robinson on for Bakayoko and Howley on for Cameron, 71'Donnelly on for Beck, 90'Mackay on for Lloyd-McGoldrick, 51'Anderson on for Stephen Kelly, 61'Nottingham on for Welch-Hayes and Sangare on for Holt, 66'Parkes on for Nottingham, 90+7'McCowan 57'1.490.67Dundee FCLivingston

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Dundee FCLivingston

0.67 −0.68xG1.49 +0.57
0.67 −0.77xG on target0.13 −0.71
10 −1.6Shots16 +7.6
3 −1.0Shots on target3 +0.9
1 −1.2Big chances1 0.0
15 −5Touches in the opposition box24 +10
46% +5Possession54% +10
311 −3Passes346 +14
65% −2Pass accuracy70% +7
39% +2Field tilt61% +20
21 −10Final-third entries28 +2
9 +0.1Box entries8 +0.5
16.5 −1Passes per defensive action11.3 −2
5 +0.7Corners12 +8.8
12 −3Tackles9 −8
5 −5.7Interceptions3 −6.9
37 +10Clearances15 −11
4 +0.9Saves2 −1.2
14 +3Fouls14 0
3 +1.5Offsides3 +1.9

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Dundee FC

Lamie 41', 0.19 xGSylla 4', 0.11 xGShaughnessy 78', 0.08 xGShaughnessy 81', 0.08 xGLamie 52', 0.05 xGRobinson 77', 0.05 xGMcCowan 47', 0.03 xGMcCowan 22', 0.02 xGCameron 26', 0.01 xGMcCowan 57', 0.04 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals82%0.55 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.55 xG, 0 goals7%0.05 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals9%0.06 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 1 goal

Livingston

Nouble 37', 0.40 xGAnderson 90+1', 0.20 xGStephen Kelly 9', 0.15 xGPittman 76', 0.12 xGNottingham 85', 0.12 xGNouble 80', 0.10 xGNottingham 90+3', 0.08 xGAnderson 90+11', 0.08 xGMackay 70', 0.07 xGAnderson 90', 0.06 xGLloyd-McGoldrick 9', 0.03 xGNouble 17', 0.03 xGDevlin 6', 0.02 xGMackay 76', 0.01 xGSangare 90+8', 0.01 xGAnderson 90+9', 0.01 xG27%0.40 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.40 xG, 0 goals52%0.78 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 0.78 xG, 0 goals7%0.11 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals13%0.20 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Dundee FCLivingston

0.09 2 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.54 7 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.54 2 shots, 0 goals
0.58 8 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.40 7 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
57 min (56%) · Dundee FC 0.45, Livingston 0.62 xG
Dundee FC ahead
44 min (44%) · Dundee FC 0.22, Livingston 0.87 xG

Line-ups

312951261028173920CarsonPortalesShaughnessyLamieMcGheeCameronSyllaMcCowanBeckBakayokoRuddenYellow cardGoalYellow card71'46'90'71'Dundee FC 3-5-2Tony Docherty32145242922818251910HamiltonWelch-HayesDevlinSean KellyPenriceShinniePittmanHoltLloyd-McGoldrickNoubleStephen KellyYellow cardYellow card66'66'51'61'Livingston 4-3-1-2David Martindale

Dundee FC substitutes

  • 46' Boateng for Sylla
  • 71' Howley for Cameron
  • 71' Robinson for Bakayoko
  • 90' Donnelly for Beck

Livingston substitutes

  • 51' Mackay for Lloyd-McGoldrick
  • 61' Anderson for Stephen Kelly
  • 66' Nottingham for Welch-Hayes · yellow card 80', off 90+7'
  • 66' Sangare for Holt
  • 90+7' Parkes for Nottingham

Players

Dundee FC

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
CarsonGK900.000.0000.0103
PortalesCB900.000.1010.12710
Shaughnessy CB900.170.0000.1327
LamieCB900.240.0200.111212
McGheeRWB900.000.000−0.0114
CameronCM710.010.011−0.0110
SyllaCM460.110.0000.0004
McCowan CM9010.090.1720.29120
BeckLWB900.000.2640.00311
BakayokoST710.000.0000.0011
RuddenST900.000.0110.0642
BoatengMF440.000.0200.1823
HowleyMF190.000.0000.0001
RobinsonFW190.050.0000.0001
DonnellyDF00.000.0000.0000

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HamiltonGK900.000.0000.0220
Welch-HayesRB660.000.0100.0134
DevlinCB900.020.181−0.0744
Sean Kelly CB900.000.0100.0663
PenriceLB900.000.4130.2026
ShinnieCM900.000.0200.0332
PittmanCM900.120.0200.0122
HoltCM660.000.0110.0323
Lloyd-McGoldrick AM510.030.0110.0231
NoubleST900.530.0100.1332
Stephen KellyST610.150.0000.0320
MackayFW390.070.0410.1151
AndersonFW290.350.1910.1711
Nottingham DF240.200.0710.0601
SangareMF240.010.0100.0520
ParkesDF00.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Dundee FC

Carson and Shaughnessy: 3 passesPortales and Bakayoko: 3 passesSylla and McCowan: 3 passesCarson and Portales: 4 passesShaughnessy and Cameron: 4 passesCameron and McCowan: 4 passesCameron and Bakayoko: 4 passesMcCowan and Bakayoko: 4 passesBakayoko and Rudden: 4 passesShaughnessy and Lamie: 5 passesLamie and Rudden: 5 passesBeck and Cameron: 5 passesLamie and Beck: 6 passesShaughnessy and McCowan: 7 passesMcCowan and Rudden: 7 passesLamie and McCowan: 8 passesPortales and Cameron: 9 passesPortales and McGhee: 11 passesShaughnessy and Portales: 17 passesCarson: 7 completed passesShaughnessy: 22 completed passesLamie: 18 completed passesPortales: 26 completed passesMcGhee: 8 completed passesBeck: 13 completed passesSylla: 8 completed passesCameron: 14 completed passesMcCowan: 15 completed passesBakayoko: 8 completed passesRudden: 9 completed passes315122963281017920CarsonShaughnessyLamiePortalesMcGheeBeckSyllaCameronMcCowanBakayokoRuddenStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Livingston

Hamilton and Devlin: 3 passesHamilton and Sean Kelly: 3 passesWelch-Hayes and Holt: 3 passesDevlin and Shinnie: 3 passesSean Kelly and Penrice: 3 passesShinnie and Holt: 3 passesShinnie and Lloyd-McGoldrick: 3 passesHolt and Lloyd-McGoldrick: 3 passesHolt and Stephen Kelly: 3 passesLloyd-McGoldrick and Stephen Kelly: 3 passesWelch-Hayes and Devlin: 4 passesSean Kelly and Shinnie: 4 passesSean Kelly and Holt: 4 passesSean Kelly and Stephen Kelly: 4 passesPenrice and Stephen Kelly: 4 passesPittman and Holt: 4 passesPittman and Lloyd-McGoldrick: 4 passesShinnie and Stephen Kelly: 4 passesDevlin and Sean Kelly: 5 passesDevlin and Holt: 5 passesHolt and Nouble: 5 passesWelch-Hayes and Nouble: 6 passesPenrice and Holt: 6 passesWelch-Hayes and Shinnie: 7 passesWelch-Hayes and Lloyd-McGoldrick: 7 passesHamilton: 5 completed passesWelch-Hayes: 17 completed passesDevlin: 13 completed passesSean Kelly: 13 completed passesPenrice: 10 completed passesPittman: 7 completed passesShinnie: 15 completed passesHolt: 19 completed passesLloyd-McGoldrick: 12 completed passesNouble: 5 completed passesStephen Kelly: 11 completed passes32145242982218251910HamiltonWelch-HayesDevlinSean KellyPenricePittmanShinnieHoltLloyd-McGoldrickNoubleStephen KellyStarters until 51' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Dundee FC

FromToPasses
ShaughnessyPortales9
PortalesShaughnessy8
LamieMcCowan8
LamieRudden6
LamieBeck6

Livingston

FromToPasses
Sean KellyPenrice8
Sean KellyNouble7
DevlinHamilton7
ShinnieSean Kelly7
DevlinSean Kelly6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Dundee FC

6+0.47−2.226+8.08−2.99+0.610+1.06−1.35−1.010+2.512+2.58+0.93−1.94+0.15+1.24−1.93−2.61−3.04+2.35+1.25+1.81−1.61−1.10−0.90−1.33−0.51+0.10−0.60−0.30−0.62+1.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 10 matches

Livingston

2−5.410+1.63−4.84−2.43−4.03−6.61−3.69+1.34−3.79+1.610+4.23−1.44−2.31−5.75+0.53−2.03+1.31−2.46+1.74+1.33+0.51+0.30−2.73+0.20−0.80−0.54+3.40−0.22+1.66−10.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 11 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Dundee FC

0.010.010.020.020.010.020.010.040.020.020.030.030.010.030.020.020.010.060.110.180.20LessMore

Livingston

0.010.020.030.010.020.020.010.010.010.020.010.050.120.010.010.010.07−0.040.050.190.19LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackDundee FC1.03 → 1.02Livingston0.99 → 1.00Defence (lower is better)Dundee FC1.58 → 1.58Livingston1.45 → 1.43

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Dundee FC
Top six17%24%+7
11th18%14%−4
Bottom18%11%−7
Livingston
Top six11%7%−4
11th18%21%+3
Bottom18%25%+7

From the forecast before the match (5 November 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Dundee FCLivingston
Expected goals1.371.09
Win43%29%
Expected Points1.561.16
Clean sheet34%25%

Dundee FC 43%Draw 28%Livingston 29%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 50%.

Livingston goalsDundee FC goals0123456+0123456+9%9%5%2%7%3%8%9%5%2%4%4%2%1%1%11%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 5 November 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowDundee FC winDrawLivingston win
Dundee FC
Top six17%24%13%10%
11th18%14%20%20%
Bottom18%11%18%27%
Livingston
Top six11%7%10%17%
11th18%21%18%15%
Bottom18%25%18%10%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Dundee FC

  1. L0–51 NovRangers (H)xG 0.77–5.69
  2. W2–028 OctLivingston (A)xG 2.02–0.14
  3. D0–024 OctRoss County (H)xG 0.96–0.32
  4. D0–030 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.55–2.62
  5. D2–223 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.49–3.56
  6. L0–316 SepCeltic (A)xG 0.81–3.17

Livingston

  1. L0–11 NovHearts (A)xG 0.21–1.91
  2. L0–228 OctDundee FC (H)xG 0.14–2.02
  3. L1–321 OctKilmarnock (A)xG 1.13–1.21
  4. W2–07 OctMotherwell (H)xG 2.59–0.06
  5. D1–130 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.98–0.62
  6. L0–323 SepCeltic (H)xG 0.94–2.61

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Dundee FCLivingston
Position9th11th
Played1011
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠5–⁠32–⁠4–⁠5
Points11 (1.10 per game)10 (0.91 per game)
Expected Points per game1.241.18
Goals9–⁠159–⁠18
xG per game1.35–⁠2.020.92–⁠1.27
Home: points, xG per game1.20, 1.27–⁠2.241.00, 1.18–⁠1.21
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.43–⁠1.790.83, 0.71–⁠1.31
ManagerTony Docherty (10)David Martindale (110)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackDundee FC1.03, 9thLivingston0.99, 11thDefence (lower is better)Dundee FC1.58, 12thLivingston1.45, 9th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDundee FC attack: 1.03Livingston attack: 0.991.030.99LivingstonDundee FCDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDundee FC defence: 1.58Livingston defence: 1.451.581.45

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Dundee FCLivingston
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−8%+48%−51%−4%
Counter-attacks−57%+10%−14%−64%
Set pieces+39%+33%−34%+8%
Penalties−38%+86%+69%−44%
Headers−6%+90%−17%−6%
Left side+20%+30%−42%+1%
Centre+5%+54%−41%−9%
Right side−25%+26%−50%−4%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Dundee FC attacking

Dundee FC createdLivingston concededLeft side+20%−4%Centre+5%−9%Right side−25%+1%Open play−8%−4%Counter-attacks−57%−64%Set pieces+39%+8%Headers−6%−6%

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdDundee FC concededLeft side−42%+26%Centre−41%+54%Right side−50%+30%Open play−51%+48%Counter-attacks−14%+10%Set pieces−34%+33%Headers−17%+90%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Dundee FCLivingston

1.35xG0.92
2.02xG against1.27
41%Possession44%
11.6Shots8.4
15.4Shots against14.0
4.0Shots on target2.1
2.2Big chances1.0
19.8Touches in the opposition box14.2
314Passes332
67%Pass accuracy63%
4.3Corners3.2
37%Field tilt40%
31.2Final-third entries26.2
8.9Box entries7.5
17.8Passes per defensive action13.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Dundee FC

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level561.121.49
Ahead101.362.67
Behind241.872.95

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level540.751.08
Ahead111.690.82
Behind250.981.87

xG by period

Dundee FC

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.200–2
16–300.150.361–1
31–450.220.251–2
46–600.320.351–2
61–750.260.323–3
76–900.310.543–5

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.161–2
16–300.040.140–1
31–450.140.121–2
46–600.210.352–3
61–750.230.144–1
76–900.230.361–9

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Dundee FC

GKRBCBCBLBDMRMCMCMLMSTCarson 9McCracken 1McGhee 5Kerr 3Portales 1Shaughnessy 8Portales 3Lamie 6Donnelly 1McGhee 1Beck 7Bakayoko 1Donnelly 1Shaughnessy 2Sylla 2Bakayoko 1McCowan 3Robertson 3Robinson 2McCowan 6Cameron 2Robertson 1Boateng 9Beck 3Tiffoney 3Bakayoko 2Bakayoko 5Rudden 3Robinson 24-1-4-1 in 2 of 10 starts

Formations: 4-1-4-1 (2), 5-3-2 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 3-5-2 (2), 3-5-1-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Livingston

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTGeorge 10Hamilton 1de Lucas 9Penrice 2Parkes 1Obileye 8Devlin 8Sean Kelly 4Montano 1Brandon 7Mackay 3Welch-Hayes 1Shinnie 6Sangare 1Holt 6Penrice 3Pittman 3Holt 4Penrice 4Shinnie 2Sangare 3Pittman 3Stephen Kelly 2Nouble 10Guthrie 3Anderson 6Stephen Kelly 2Sangare 13-4-1-2 in 4 of 11 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (4), 3-4-2-1 (2), 3-5-2 (2), 4-3-1-2 (1), 4-3-2-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
28 October 2023Livingston0–2Dundee FCxG 0.14–2.02
15 May 2022Livingston2–1Dundee FCxG 1.48–1.58
26 February 2022Dundee FC0–4LivingstonxG 0.49–2.72
18 January 2022Livingston2–0Dundee FCxG 1.27–0.56
11 September 2021Dundee FC0–0LivingstonxG 1.08–0.44

5 league meetings since 2020/21: Dundee FC won 1, Livingston won 3, and 1 was a draw. Goals 3–8 and xG 1.15–1.21 per game.

Key players

Dundee FC

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Robinson6476000.570.04
Bakayoko9837120.280.07
McCowan10891110.130.16
Beck10900010.050.14

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Anderson6591300.290.01
Penrice9802010.040.12
Nouble11986010.110.04
de Lucas9838100.110.01

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.