Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Celtic 1–1 Motherwell

Saturday 25 November 2023, 15:00 · Celtic Park · Round 14 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Steven McLean · Attendance 58,140

Celtic Turnbull 86' (pen)

Motherwell Obika 90'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

CelticMotherwell
Goals11
xG3.250.48
Non-penalty xG1.670.48
Expected Points2.880.07

Celtic 94%Draw 5%Motherwell 1%

Most likely score 3–0, 18%. Final score 1–1, 2%.

Motherwell goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+4%2%7%2%10%2%8%1%7%4%3%2%13%18%14%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

012340153045607590HTOh on for Holm, 46'Turnbull on for Furuhashi and M. Johnston on for Palma, 67'Tilio on for Yang, 90+4'Obika on for Biereth, 78'Bair on for Slattery and Wilkinson on for Butcher, 89'Turnbull 86' (pen)Obika 90'Celtic 3.25Motherwell 0.48012340153045607590HTOh on for Holm, 46'Turnbull on for Furuhashi and M. Johnston on for Palma, 67'Tilio on for Yang, 90+4'Obika on for Biereth, 78'Bair on for Slattery and Wilkinson on for Butcher, 89'Turnbull 86' (pen)Obika 90'3.250.48CelticMotherwell

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

CelticMotherwell

3.25 +0.35xG0.48 −0.71
1.67Non-penalty xG0.48
2.21 −0.91xG on target1.11 −0.07
20 −1Shots6 −5
4 −4.4Shots on target2 −1.5
4 −0.5Big chances3 +1.4
47 +2Touches in the opposition box7 −14
81% +12Possession19% −26
732 +51Passes181 −177
90% +5Pass accuracy50% −16
96% +19Field tilt4% −44
113 +41Final-third entries9 −23
32 +9Box entries2 −9
5.9 −5Passes per defensive action30.8 +15
13 +4.5Corners2 −2.8
12 −3Tackles18 +1
4 −1.5Interceptions14 +6.1
7 −8Clearances44 +21
1 −0.7Saves5 +2.7
8 −1.3Fouls9 −4.2
1 −0.3Offsides0 −1.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Celtic

Oh 63', 0.26 xGYang 80', 0.26 xGOh 82', 0.20 xGO'Riley 8', 0.17 xGYang 50', 0.17 xGO'Riley 90+9', 0.12 xGOh 69', 0.08 xGTaylor 21', 0.07 xGM. Johnston 90+6', 0.06 xGTaylor 23', 0.05 xGO'Riley 24', 0.05 xGRalston 81', 0.05 xGFuruhashi 16', 0.03 xGTaylor 73', 0.03 xGMcGregor 23', 0.02 xGPalma 27', 0.02 xGScales 90+3', 0.02 xGTurnbull 69', 0.01 xG15%0.26 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.26 xG, 0 goals63%1.06 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 1.06 xG, 0 goals11%0.18 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals8%0.14 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals2%0.04 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Motherwell

Casey 35', 0.10 xGSpittal 44', 0.06 xGPaton 39', 0.04 xGO'Donnell 35', 0.03 xGSpittal 39', 0.02 xGObika 90', 0.24 xG, goal50%0.24 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.24 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGCentral box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals4%0.02 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals46%0.22 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.22 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

CelticMotherwell

1.61 16 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.19 4 shots, 0 goals
0.07 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.30 2 shots, 1 goal
1.58 2 shots, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
95 min (96%) · Celtic 3.25, Motherwell 0.24 xG
Celtic ahead
4 min (4%) · Celtic 0.00, Motherwell 0.24 xG

Line-ups

15620533342151387HartRalstonCarter-VickersScalesTaylorO'RileyMcGregorHolmYangFuruhashiPalmaYellow card46'90+4'67'67'Celtic 4-3-3Brendan Rodgers12155202286612247KellyO'DonnellCaseyMugabiBlaneySpencerSlatteryButcherPatonBierethSpittalYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardYellow card89'89'78'Motherwell 5-3-2Stuart Kettlewell

Celtic substitutes

  • 46' Oh for Holm
  • 67' Turnbull for Furuhashi · goal 86' (pen)
  • 67' M. Johnston for Palma
  • 90+4' Tilio for Yang

Motherwell substitutes

  • 78' Obika for Biereth · goal 90'
  • 89' Wilkinson for Butcher
  • 89' Bair for Slattery

Players

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HartGK900.000.0000.0100
RalstonRB900.050.7130.67283
Carter-VickersCB900.000.0900.26144
ScalesCB900.020.1110.2644
Taylor LB900.140.5230.31111
O'RileyCM900.350.1110.0064
McGregorCM900.020.1010.0731
HolmCM460.000.040−0.0521
YangRW900.430.1910.3281
FuruhashiST670.030.0300.0330
PalmaLW670.810.1510.1962
OhFW440.540.0200.0001
TurnbullMF2310.800.081−0.0401
M. JohnstonFW230.060.2010.1620
TilioFW00.000.0100.0530

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KellyGK900.000.0200.0760
O'Donnell RWB900.030.0000.01110
CaseyCB900.100.0000.01210
Mugabi CB900.000.0000.00014
BlaneyCB900.000.0000.02217
SpencerLWB900.000.0000.03210
Slattery CM890.000.0000.0135
Butcher CM890.000.0000.0126
PatonCM900.040.0000.0136
BierethST780.000.0100.0001
SpittalST9010.080.0620.0223
ObikaFW1210.240.0000.1000
WilkinsonFW10.000.0000.0001
BairFW10.000.0700.0001

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Celtic

Ralston and Taylor: 5 passesO'Riley and Palma: 5 passesScales and Holm: 6 passesHolm and McGregor: 6 passesMcGregor and Palma: 6 passesO'Riley and McGregor: 7 passesRalston and Scales: 8 passesRalston and Holm: 8 passesMcGregor and Yang: 8 passesCarter-Vickers and Yang: 9 passesTaylor and Holm: 9 passesO'Riley and Yang: 10 passesScales and McGregor: 12 passesRalston and O'Riley: 13 passesHolm and Palma: 13 passesCarter-Vickers and McGregor: 15 passesRalston and McGregor: 19 passesTaylor and McGregor: 20 passesTaylor and Palma: 22 passesRalston and Carter-Vickers: 23 passesScales and Taylor: 26 passesScales and Carter-Vickers: 33 passesRalston and Yang: 35 passesHart: 8 completed passesRalston: 62 completed passesScales: 50 completed passesCarter-Vickers: 48 completed passesTaylor: 46 completed passesO'Riley: 20 completed passesHolm: 24 completed passesMcGregor: 50 completed passesYang: 29 completed passesFuruhashi: 1 completed passesPalma: 26 completed passes15652033315421387HartRalstonScalesCarter-VickersTaylorO'RileyHolmMcGregorYangFuruhashiPalmaStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Motherwell

O'Donnell and Spittal: 3 passesO'Donnell and Biereth: 3 passesBlaney and Mugabi: 3 passesCasey and Mugabi: 3 passesButcher and Slattery: 3 passesSlattery and Biereth: 3 passesKelly and Spencer: 4 passesO'Donnell and Casey: 4 passesO'Donnell and Butcher: 4 passesSpencer and Paton: 4 passesPaton and Spittal: 4 passesPaton and Biereth: 4 passesSlattery and Spittal: 4 passesKelly and O'Donnell: 6 passesO'Donnell and Slattery: 7 passesBlaney and Spencer: 7 passesKelly: 12 completed passesO'Donnell: 15 completed passesBlaney: 8 completed passesCasey: 8 completed passesMugabi: 3 completed passesSpencer: 7 completed passesPaton: 6 completed passesButcher: 10 completed passesSlattery: 11 completed passesSpittal: 8 completed passesBiereth: 4 completed passes12201552212668724KellyO'DonnellBlaneyCaseyMugabiSpencerPatonButcherSlatterySpittalBierethStarters until 78' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Celtic

FromToPasses
RalstonYang43
Carter-VickersRalston38
ScalesCarter-Vickers29
ScalesTaylor27
Carter-VickersScales25

Motherwell

FromToPasses
SlatteryO'Donnell4
KellySpencer4
SpencerBlaney4
KellyO'Donnell4
O'DonnellCasey3

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Celtic

1−2.03−0.16−3.32−4.40−4.62−2.54+0.67+0.34−3.53−2.22−1.53−0.55−1.25−3.00−4.53−0.22−0.22−0.81−4.64−0.26+3.61−1.14+1.69+4.81+0.20−0.33+2.52+1.40−1.51−5.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 13 matches

Motherwell

7+2.212+4.534+17.319+11.84−2.59+1.813+6.210+2.117+8.88+1.44−2.22−4.32−2.50−5.21−6.160.02−2.61−2.00−3.50−4.11−1.31−1.10−1.50−1.41−1.110.00−0.60−0.80−0.82+1.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 13 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Celtic

0.020.030.030.020.040.100.060.030.010.120.150.160.120.050.270.15−0.030.060.150.14−0.06−0.040.280.38LessMore

Motherwell

0.010.020.010.040.020.020.010.020.020.01−0.01−0.01−0.01−0.010.010.010.10LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackCeltic2.43 → 2.42Motherwell1.13 → 1.11Defence (lower is better)Celtic0.71 → 0.70Motherwell1.41 → 1.43

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Celtic
Title78%74%−4
Motherwell
Top six23%30%+7
11th12%9%−3
Bottom8%6%−2
Rangers
Title22%26%+4

From the forecast before the match (25 November 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

CelticMotherwell
Expected goals3.160.56
Win87%3%
Expected Points2.710.20
Clean sheet57%4%

Celtic 87%Draw 9%Motherwell 3%

Most likely score 3–0, 13%. Both sides score 41%.

Motherwell goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+3%1%7%4%1%7%2%7%2%6%2%6%4%1%6%3%12%13%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 25 November 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowCeltic winDrawMotherwell win
Celtic
Title78%79%74%66%
Motherwell
Top six23%21%30%37%
11th12%12%9%6%
Bottom8%8%6%3%
Rangers
Title22%21%26%34%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Celtic

  1. W6–012 NovAberdeen (H)xG 4.67–0.18
  2. W3–04 NovRoss County (A)xG 3.40–0.26
  3. W2–11 NovSt. Mirren (H)xG 3.89–0.62
  4. D0–028 OctHibernian (A)xG 1.49–0.57
  5. W4–122 OctHearts (A)xG 4.01–0.73
  6. W3–17 OctKilmarnock (H)xG 2.75–1.54

Motherwell

  1. L1–211 NovHearts (H)xG 1.10–2.08
  2. D2–27 NovSt. Johnstone (A)xG 2.58–0.93
  3. L0–14 NovKilmarnock (A)xG 0.61–1.95
  4. L2–41 NovAberdeen (H)xG 1.44–2.24
  5. D3–328 OctRoss County (H)xG 2.34–1.92
  6. L0–27 OctLivingston (A)xG 0.06–2.59

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

CelticMotherwell
Position1st8th
Played1313
Won, drawn, lost11–⁠2–⁠03–⁠3–⁠7
Points35 (2.69 per game)12 (0.92 per game)
Expected Points per game2.431.14
Goals34–⁠715–⁠21
xG per game2.90–⁠0.881.19–⁠1.54
Home: points, xG per game2.67, 3.44–⁠0.761.00, 1.38–⁠1.48
Away: points, xG per game2.71, 2.44–⁠0.980.83, 0.98–⁠1.60
ManagerBrendan Rodgers (13)Stuart Kettlewell (27)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackCeltic2.43, 1stMotherwell1.13, 7thDefence (lower is better)Celtic0.71, 2ndMotherwell1.41, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovCeltic attack: 2.43Motherwell attack: 1.132.431.13MotherwellCelticDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovCeltic defence: 0.71Motherwell defence: 1.411.410.71

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

CelticMotherwell
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+129%−12%−13%+12%
Counter-attacks+198%−87%−53%+21%
Set pieces+19%−53%−19%+18%
Penalties+153%−100%+26%−16%
Headers+20%−35%−27%+24%
Left side+109%−12%−23%+49%
Centre+106%−33%+1%−3%
Right side+102%−38%−51%+14%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdMotherwell concededLeft side+109%+14%Centre+106%−3%Right side+102%+49%Open play+129%+12%Counter-attacks+198%+21%Set pieces+19%+18%Headers+20%+24%

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdCeltic concededLeft side−23%−38%Centre+1%−33%Right side−51%−12%Open play−13%−12%Counter-attacks−53%−87%Set pieces−19%−53%Headers−27%−35%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

CelticMotherwell

2.90xG1.19
0.88xG against1.54
69%Possession46%
20.6Shots10.7
8.2Shots against14.2
8.4Shots on target3.5
4.5Big chances1.6
45.3Touches in the opposition box21.0
681Passes358
85%Pass accuracy67%
8.5Corners4.8
78%Field tilt47%
72.3Final-third entries32.3
22.8Box entries11.0
10.9Passes per defensive action15.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level432.620.64
Ahead463.201.12
Behind10.900.00

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level480.861.26
Ahead80.502.69
Behind341.841.64

xG by period

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.330.154–1
16–300.620.117–1
31–450.280.114–0
46–600.550.103–1
61–750.300.193–2
76–900.810.2313–2

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.040.110–1
16–300.130.261–5
31–450.150.151–1
46–600.090.361–3
61–750.260.293–7
76–900.510.369–4

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWHart 12Bain 1Johnston 10Ralston 3Carter-Vickers 7Lagerbielke 4Phillips 2Scales 11Nawrocki 2Taylor 13O'Riley 12Bernardo 2McGregor 13Turnbull 7Hatate 4Holm 1Maeda 5Yang 3Abada 3Furuhashi 12Oh 1Maeda 6Palma 5Yang 24-3-3 in every start

Motherwell

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWKelly 13McGinn 9Mugabi 10Butcher 3Casey 13Blaney 4O'Donnell 12McGinn 1Paton 8Slattery 5Wilkinson 1Spittal 6Miller 5Spencer 1Spencer 8Souaré 2Paton 1Slattery 6Miller 3Paton 1Bair 4Wilkinson 3Biereth 2Bair 7Spittal 4Wilkinson 13-4-3 in 6 of 13 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (6), 3-5-2 (4), 3-4-2-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
30 September 2023Motherwell1–2CelticxG 0.82–1.68
22 April 2023Celtic1–1MotherwellxG 2.04–0.81
9 November 2022Motherwell1–2CelticxG 0.47–1.43
1 October 2022Celtic2–1MotherwellxG 3.50–0.35
14 May 2022Celtic6–0MotherwellxG 2.32–0.90
6 February 2022Motherwell0–4CelticxG 0.24–2.79

11 league meetings since 2020/21: Celtic won 10, Motherwell won 0, and 1 was a draw. Goals 29–6 and xG 2.17–0.65 per game.

Key players

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Turnbull7519600.760.41
Furuhashi12942620.680.15
O'Riley121,030650.420.35
Maeda11901220.400.07

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Spittal131,170220.200.20
Wilkinson6563210.150.13
Bair11852200.240.04
Slattery121,006100.160.09

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.