Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

St. Mirren 1–0 Livingston

Saturday 25 November 2023, 15:00 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 14 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee David Munro · Attendance 5,632

St. Mirren Sean Kelly 37' (og)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenLivingston
Goals10
xG0.810.59
Expected Points1.491.10

St. Mirren 36%Draw 41%Livingston 23%

Most likely score 0–0, 25%. Final score 1–0, 20%.

Livingston goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+14%4%14%3%8%5%2%2%1%25%20%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.7510153045607590HTGreive on for Ayunga, 60'Dunne on for Taylor, 72'Nachmani on for Mandron and Bolton on for Boyd-Munce, 87'Sangare on for Shinnie and Parkes on for Sean Kelly, 64'Stephen Kelly on for Pittman, 82'Brandon on for Penrice, 90+5'Sean Kelly 37' (og)St. Mirren 0.81Livingston 0.5900.250.50.7510153045607590HTGreive on for Ayunga, 60'Dunne on for Taylor, 72'Nachmani on for Mandron and Bolton on for Boyd-Munce, 87'Sangare on for Shinnie and Parkes on for Sean Kelly, 64'Stephen Kelly on for Pittman, 82'Brandon on for Penrice, 90+5'Sean Kelly 37' (og)0.810.59St. MirrenLivingston

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenLivingston

0.81 −0.25xG0.59 −0.32
0.14 −1.09xG on target0.29 −0.44
15 +5.5Shots11 +2.4
1 −2.2Shots on target1 −1.1
0 −2.2Big chances0 −0.9
26 +10Touches in the opposition box19 +4
54% +11Possession46% +2
351 +35Passes310 −16
59% −5Pass accuracy47% −16
54% +13Field tilt46% +6
32 0Final-third entries24 −2
6 −2.6Box entries8 +0.6
11.6 −6Passes per defensive action17.7 +4
7 +3.2Corners3 −0.8
9 −4Tackles14 −2
6 −2.2Interceptions2 −7.0
24 −1Clearances25 0
1 −2.1Saves1 −2.2
13 +2Fouls10 −4
3 +1.2Offsides2 +0.8

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Mandron 27', 0.11 xGKiltie 37', 0.11 xGMcMenamin 90+6', 0.10 xGMandron 81', 0.08 xGO'Hara 90+6', 0.08 xGTaylor 51', 0.07 xGTaylor 14', 0.06 xGAyunga 41', 0.06 xGMandron 44', 0.05 xGTanser 82', 0.03 xGO'Hara 2', 0.02 xGBoyd-Munce 55', 0.02 xGTaylor 27', 0.01 xGFraser 41', 0.01 xGGogic 45+1', 0.01 xG10%0.08 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.08 xG, 0 goals52%0.42 xGCentral box: 9 shots, 0.42 xG, 0 goals28%0.23 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.23 xG, 0 goals7%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.06 xG, 0 goals2%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Livingston

Nouble 90+6', 0.11 xGPittman 33', 0.10 xGSean Kelly 60', 0.09 xGSangare 81', 0.09 xGGuthrie 64', 0.06 xGNottingham 33', 0.04 xGPittman 3', 0.03 xGNouble 25', 0.03 xGGuthrie 11', 0.02 xGHolt 90+6', 0.02 xGAnderson 6', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals90%0.53 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 0.53 xG, 0 goals5%0.03 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals5%0.03 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.03 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenLivingston

0.36 6 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.40 7 shots, 0 goals
0.18 2 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.28 7 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.20 4 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
37 min (38%) · St. Mirren 0.30, Livingston 0.23 xG
St. Mirren ahead
60 min (62%) · St. Mirren 0.51, Livingston 0.36 xG

Line-ups

1221351011615379HemmingFraserGogicTaylorMcMenaminKiltieO'HaraBoyd-MunceTanserAyungaMandronYellow card72'87'60'87'St. Mirren 3-5-2Stephen Robinson152124191882229289GeorgeDevlinNottinghamSean KellyNoubleHoltPittmanShinniePenriceGuthrieAndersonOwn goal64'82'64'90+5'Livingston 3-5-2David Martindale

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 60' Greive for Ayunga
  • 72' Dunne for Taylor
  • 87' Bolton for Boyd-Munce
  • 87' Nachmani for Mandron

Livingston substitutes

  • 64' Parkes for Sean Kelly
  • 64' Sangare for Shinnie
  • 82' Stephen Kelly for Pittman
  • 90+5' Brandon for Penrice

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HemmingGK900.000.0000.0320
FraserCB900.010.1110.0238
Gogic CB900.010.0000.0539
TaylorCB720.140.0200.0346
McMenaminRWB900.100.0100.0362
KiltieCM900.110.4730.1633
O'HaraCM900.090.0200.0442
Boyd-MunceCM870.020.1540.1242
TanserLWB900.030.0920.10104
AyungaST600.060.0110.0222
MandronST870.240.0710.0012
GreiveFW300.000.0100.0100
DunneDF180.000.0000.0112
BoltonDF30.000.0010.0112
NachmaniFW30.000.0000.0000

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GeorgeGK900.000.0000.0232
DevlinCB900.000.1110.0948
NottinghamCB900.040.0100.0245
Sean KellyCB640.090.0000.0224
NoubleRWB900.140.2320.2452
HoltCM900.020.0310.0222
PittmanCM820.120.0000.0011
ShinnieCM640.000.010−0.0112
PenriceLWB900.000.0720.11611
GuthrieST900.080.1010.2732
AndersonST900.010.1210.0531
ParkesDF260.000.0000.0332
SangareMF260.090.0010.1111
Stephen KellyMF80.000.0000.0100
BrandonMF00.000.0000.0001

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

Gogic and Kiltie: 3 passesTanser and Mandron: 3 passesKiltie and Boyd-Munce: 3 passesKiltie and Mandron: 3 passesBoyd-Munce and Ayunga: 3 passesGogic and O'Hara: 4 passesTaylor and Fraser: 4 passesTaylor and O'Hara: 4 passesFraser and Boyd-Munce: 4 passesFraser and Ayunga: 4 passesO'Hara and Ayunga: 4 passesGogic and Taylor: 5 passesGogic and McMenamin: 5 passesGogic and Tanser: 5 passesTaylor and Boyd-Munce: 5 passesFraser and McMenamin: 5 passesFraser and O'Hara: 5 passesFraser and Mandron: 6 passesTanser and Boyd-Munce: 6 passesO'Hara and Mandron: 6 passesBoyd-Munce and Mandron: 6 passesTaylor and Tanser: 11 passesTanser and Kiltie: 12 passesMcMenamin and O'Hara: 16 passesHemming: 5 completed passesGogic: 15 completed passesTaylor: 24 completed passesFraser: 21 completed passesMcMenamin: 19 completed passesTanser: 19 completed passesKiltie: 12 completed passesO'Hara: 24 completed passesBoyd-Munce: 14 completed passesMandron: 12 completed passesAyunga: 6 completed passes1135221031161597HemmingGogicTaylorFraserMcMenaminTanserKiltieO'HaraBoyd-MunceMandronAyungaStarters until 60' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Livingston

George and Devlin: 3 passesNottingham and Anderson: 3 passesSean Kelly and Penrice: 3 passesSean Kelly and Shinnie: 3 passesDevlin and Shinnie: 3 passesHolt and Anderson: 3 passesGeorge and Nottingham: 4 passesDevlin and Nouble: 4 passesDevlin and Holt: 4 passesNouble and Guthrie: 4 passesGeorge and Guthrie: 5 passesNottingham and Sean Kelly: 5 passesNouble and Holt: 5 passesSean Kelly and Guthrie: 6 passesPenrice and Shinnie: 6 passesShinnie and Holt: 6 passesGuthrie and Anderson: 6 passesPenrice and Guthrie: 7 passesGeorge: 5 completed passesNottingham: 13 completed passesSean Kelly: 11 completed passesDevlin: 14 completed passesNouble: 10 completed passesPenrice: 12 completed passesPittman: 2 completed passesShinnie: 12 completed passesHolt: 16 completed passesGuthrie: 11 completed passesAnderson: 6 completed passes121245192982218289GeorgeNottinghamSean KellyDevlinNoublePenricePittmanShinnieHoltGuthrieAndersonStarters until 64' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
McMenaminO'Hara10
O'HaraMcMenamin10
KiltieTanser8
TanserTaylor7
TanserKiltie6

Livingston

FromToPasses
GeorgeGuthrie6
NottinghamGeorge6
DevlinNouble6
PenriceGuthrie5
GuthriePenrice5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

5−0.77−0.814−1.86−1.63−2.315+6.415+6.92−3.46−2.56−2.18+1.88+2.34+1.25−1.86+2.24+1.24+1.63−0.23−0.62−0.13+1.30−0.81−0.30−2.60−1.00−0.31+0.20−0.20−1.22−5.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 12 matches

Livingston

4−2.89+1.711+5.14−2.64−4.74−0.38−0.16−1.23−4.25−1.12−2.22−3.910+3.83−1.80−4.71−0.83+0.17+2.62−0.93+0.50−0.73+0.52−0.90−0.80−0.40−0.91+0.83+2.51−7.29−7.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 13 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.010.030.010.030.010.010.040.010.030.030.030.020.020.050.040.020.03−0.01−0.020.090.010.15LessMore

Livingston

0.010.010.020.010.030.040.030.030.010.010.040.02−0.010.14−0.01−0.030.180.020.160.04−0.010.25LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackSt. Mirren1.07 → 1.07Livingston0.97 → 0.96Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.44 → 1.42Livingston1.47 → 1.46

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six62%70%+8
11th3%2%−1
Bottom1%<1%−1
Livingston
Top six6%4%−2
11th22%24%+2
Bottom27%33%+6
St. Johnstone
Top six7%7%0
11th22%23%+1
Bottom28%26%−2
Ross County
Top six8%8%0
Bottom25%23%−2

From the forecast before the match (25 November 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenLivingston
Expected goals1.440.97
Win47%25%
Expected Points1.701.02
Clean sheet38%24%

St. Mirren 47%Draw 28%Livingston 25%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 48%.

Livingston goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+8%4%1%6%2%9%9%4%1%4%4%2%2%2%10%12%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 25 November 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawLivingston win
St. Mirren
Top six62%70%59%51%
11th3%2%4%5%
Bottom1%<1%2%3%
Livingston
Top six6%4%6%12%
11th22%24%21%20%
Bottom27%33%26%17%
St. Johnstone
Top six7%7%8%7%
11th22%23%21%21%
Bottom28%26%28%31%
Ross County
Top six8%8%9%9%
Bottom25%23%26%28%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. L0–411 NovDundee FC (A)xG 0.51–2.62
  2. D2–28 NovHibernian (H)xG 1.60–0.89
  3. L1–21 NovCeltic (A)xG 0.62–3.89
  4. W4–028 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.52–0.74
  5. L0–38 OctRangers (H)xG 0.03–2.05
  6. D1–130 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 0.79–0.73

Livingston

  1. L0–212 NovRangers (H)xG 0.13–2.68
  2. L0–15 NovDundee FC (A)xG 1.49–0.67
  3. L0–11 NovHearts (A)xG 0.21–1.91
  4. L0–228 OctDundee FC (H)xG 0.14–2.02
  5. L1–321 OctKilmarnock (A)xG 1.13–1.21
  6. W2–07 OctMotherwell (H)xG 2.59–0.06

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenLivingston
Position3rd12th
Played1213
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠4–⁠32–⁠4–⁠7
Points19 (1.58 per game)10 (0.77 per game)
Expected Points per game1.091.16
Goals18–⁠189–⁠21
xG per game1.06–⁠1.610.91–⁠1.33
Home: points, xG per game1.83, 1.33–⁠1.340.83, 1.00–⁠1.46
Away: points, xG per game1.33, 0.78–⁠1.880.71, 0.83–⁠1.22
ManagerStephen Robinson (7)David Martindale (112)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackSt. Mirren1.07, 9thLivingston0.97, 11thDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.44, 8thLivingston1.47, 9th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovSt. Mirren attack: 1.07Livingston attack: 0.971.070.97LivingstonSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovSt. Mirren defence: 1.44Livingston defence: 1.471.471.44

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenLivingston
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−29%+1%−51%−8%
Counter-attacks+14%+69%+11%−59%
Set pieces−46%−9%−33%+10%
Penalties+37%+128%+26%+26%
Headers−3%−18%−17%−2%
Left side−38%+5%−42%+4%
Centre−35%+12%−41%−14%
Right side−13%−17%−42%−5%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdLivingston concededLeft side−38%−5%Centre−35%−14%Right side−13%+4%Open play−29%−8%Counter-attacks+14%−59%Set pieces−46%+10%Headers−3%−2%

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−42%−17%Centre−41%+12%Right side−42%+5%Open play−51%+1%Counter-attacks+11%+69%Set pieces−33%−9%Headers−17%−18%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenLivingston

1.06xG0.91
1.61xG against1.33
43%Possession44%
9.5Shots8.6
12.5Shots against14.0
3.2Shots on target2.1
2.2Big chances0.9
15.9Touches in the opposition box14.9
316Passes326
64%Pass accuracy63%
3.8Corners3.8
40%Field tilt40%
32.2Final-third entries25.5
8.6Box entries7.4
17.1Passes per defensive action13.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level420.891.41
Ahead291.081.79
Behind191.381.77

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level520.741.17
Ahead91.690.82
Behind290.971.78

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.240.074–1
16–300.110.281–4
31–450.120.293–2
46–600.240.224–1
61–750.140.281–4
76–900.190.465–6

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.161–2
16–300.040.200–2
31–450.150.141–2
46–600.180.312–4
61–750.200.194–2
76–900.260.341–9

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWHemming 12Fraser 12Gogic 12Taylor 11Dunne 1Strain 11Flynn 1Baccus 9McMenamin 1Boyd-Munce 7O'Hara 7Tanser 11O'Hara 1McMenamin 11Tanser 1Mandron 6Olusanya 6Kiltie 123-4-3 in 8 of 12 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (8), 3-4-2-1 (3), 5-4-1 (1)

Livingston

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTGeorge 11Hamilton 2de Lucas 9Penrice 3Montano 2Devlin 10Obileye 8Sean Kelly 6Brandon 7Mackay 3Welch-Hayes 2Shinnie 7Sangare 2Holt 7Pittman 4Penrice 3Penrice 5Holt 4Shinnie 3Pittman 4Sangare 3Stephen Kelly 2Nouble 12Guthrie 3Anderson 7Stephen Kelly 3Sangare 13-4-1-2 in 5 of 13 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (5), 4-3-1-2 (2), 3-4-2-1 (2), 3-5-2 (2), 4-3-2-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
2 September 2023Livingston1–1St. MirrenxG 1.45–0.67
1 April 2023St. Mirren3–0LivingstonxG 3.07–1.20
28 December 2022Livingston1–1St. MirrenxG 1.59–1.36
1 October 2022St. Mirren2–1LivingstonxG 0.77–1.45
11 May 2022St. Mirren0–0LivingstonxG 0.64–0.85
19 February 2022Livingston1–1St. MirrenxG 1.29–0.13

11 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 5, Livingston won 0, and 6 were drawn. Goals 13–6 and xG 0.95–0.99 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Olusanya6571110.310.07
O'Hara8720210.230.08
Mandron6518310.220.06
Kiltie12930230.210.05

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Sean Kelly7618300.370.05
Anderson7710300.300.03
Penrice11982010.030.14
Nouble131,154010.130.04

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.