Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Livingston 3–1 Kilmarnock

Saturday 4 February 2023, 15:00 · Tony Macaroni Arena · Round 25 · Half-time 3–0 · Referee Colin Steven · Attendance 1,923

Livingston Nouble 10', Anderson 12', Stephen Kelly 29'

Kilmarnock Doidge 47'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

LivingstonKilmarnock
Goals31
xG1.451.12
Expected Points1.591.09

Livingston 43%Draw 31%Kilmarnock 26%

Most likely score 1–1, 19%. Final score 3–1, 5%.

Kilmarnock goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+5%8%4%9%9%2%7%13%8%2%3%5%3%1%19%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTPenrice on for Montano, 66'Holt on for Anderson, 74'Bahamboula on for Bradley and Guthrie on for Nouble, 82'Lyons on for Power, 62'Murray on for Polworth, 77'Alston on for McKenzie and Robinson on for Doidge, 86'Nouble 10'Anderson 12'Stephen Kelly 29'Doidge 47'Livingston 1.45Kilmarnock 1.1200.511.520153045607590HTPenrice on for Montano, 66'Holt on for Anderson, 74'Bahamboula on for Bradley and Guthrie on for Nouble, 82'Lyons on for Power, 62'Murray on for Polworth, 77'Alston on for McKenzie and Robinson on for Doidge, 86'Nouble 10'Anderson 12'Stephen Kelly 29'Doidge 47'1.451.12LivingstonKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

LivingstonKilmarnock

1.45 +0.37xG1.12 +0.17
2.62 +1.45xG on target1.21 +0.58
12 +2.6Shots9 −2.7
7 +3.6Shots on target3 0.0
2 +0.5Big chances1 −0.3
30 +12Touches in the opposition box18 −2
46% +7Possession54% +9
310 +33Passes360 +25
60% 0Pass accuracy65% −1
48% +10Field tilt52% +8
36 +12Final-third entries30 −5
11 +3.2Box entries9 −0.2
9.0 −8Passes per defensive action11.3 −4
5 +1.4Corners5 +0.7
18 +4Tackles29 +13
8 −3Interceptions7 −4
18 −8Clearances17 −2
2 −1.2Saves4 +0.9
16 +4Fouls13 0
0 −1.2Offsides3 +1.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Livingston

Montano 5', 0.19 xGNouble 7', 0.08 xGNouble 52', 0.07 xGNouble 57', 0.06 xGBradley 52', 0.05 xGAnderson 43', 0.04 xGFitzwater 57', 0.04 xGBoyes 17', 0.02 xGMontano 44', 0.01 xGNouble 10', 0.41 xG, goalAnderson 12', 0.37 xG, goalStephen Kelly 29', 0.09 xG, goal41%0.60 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.60 xG, 1 goal34%0.50 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.50 xG, 2 goals16%0.23 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.23 xG, 0 goals8%0.12 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Vassell 47', 0.22 xGPolworth 47', 0.13 xGMcKenzie 47', 0.09 xGVassell 56', 0.05 xGVassell 42', 0.03 xGLyons 63', 0.02 xGArmstrong 42', 0.01 xGArmstrong 50', 0.01 xGDoidge 47', 0.56 xG, goal54%0.61 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.61 xG, 1 goal30%0.34 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.34 xG, 0 goals11%0.12 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals4%0.05 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

LivingstonKilmarnock

1.22 9 shots, 3 goalsOpen play1.06 7 shots, 1 goal
0.23 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.06 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
10 min (11%) · Livingston 0.68, Kilmarnock 0.00 xG
Livingston ahead
80 min (89%) · Livingston 0.77, Kilmarnock 1.12 xG

Line-ups

12515111724168199GeorgeDevlinFitzwaterBoyesMontanoStephen KellySean KellyBradleyPittmanNoubleAndersonGoalGoalYellow cardGoal66'82'82'74'Livingston 4-2-3-1David Martindale2025192241143172623WalkerAlebiosuWrightMayoChambersArmstrongPowerPolworthMcKenzieDoidgeVassellYellow cardYellow cardGoal62'77'86'86'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Derek McInnes

Livingston substitutes

  • 66' Penrice for Montano · yellow card 68'
  • 74' Holt for Anderson
  • 82' Bahamboula for Bradley
  • 82' Guthrie for Nouble

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 62' Lyons for Power
  • 77' Murray for Polworth
  • 86' Alston for McKenzie
  • 86' Robinson for Doidge

Players

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GeorgeGK900.000.0000.0330
DevlinRB9010.000.1110.2035
FitzwaterCB900.040.0100.0240
BoyesCB900.020.0200.1364
MontanoLB660.210.0000.0123
Stephen KellyDM9010.090.0520.0746
Sean KellyDM900.000.0110.0439
BradleyRW820.050.3720.2362
PittmanAM900.000.0100.0245
Nouble LW8210.620.0300.0346
AndersonST7410.410.0120.0820
Penrice DF240.000.0000.0123
HoltMF160.000.0000.0002
BahamboulaFW80.000.0000.0311
GuthrieFW80.000.0000.0011

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
WalkerGK900.000.0000.0341
AlebiosuRB900.000.0100.0438
WrightCB900.000.0000.03411
MayoCB900.000.0000.0528
ChambersLB900.000.102−0.0557
Armstrong RM900.030.1210.13103
PowerCM620.000.0210.0324
PolworthCM770.130.0420.0022
McKenzie LM860.090.0100.0035
DoidgeST8610.560.0100.0103
VassellST9010.300.5010.0651
LyonsMF280.020.0100.0212
MurrayMF130.000.0100.0010
AlstonMF40.000.0100.0221
RobinsonMF40.000.0000.0100

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Livingston

George and Nouble: 4 passesDevlin and Stephen Kelly: 4 passesBoyes and Montano: 4 passesBoyes and Stephen Kelly: 4 passesBoyes and Sean Kelly: 4 passesMontano and Pittman: 4 passesStephen Kelly and Pittman: 4 passesStephen Kelly and Nouble: 4 passesGeorge and Boyes: 5 passesDevlin and Fitzwater: 5 passesDevlin and Nouble: 5 passesFitzwater and Boyes: 5 passesBoyes and Anderson: 5 passesStephen Kelly and Bradley: 5 passesBradley and Nouble: 5 passesDevlin and Anderson: 6 passesFitzwater and Bradley: 6 passesGeorge and Fitzwater: 7 passesMontano and Nouble: 7 passesMontano and Stephen Kelly: 8 passesDevlin and Bradley: 9 passesDevlin and Pittman: 16 passesGeorge: 10 completed passesDevlin: 30 completed passesFitzwater: 16 completed passesBoyes: 15 completed passesMontano: 15 completed passesStephen Kelly: 19 completed passesSean Kelly: 11 completed passesBradley: 13 completed passesPittman: 19 completed passesNouble: 11 completed passesAnderson: 6 completed passes12515111724168199GeorgeDevlinFitzwaterBoyesMontanoStephen KellySean KellyBradleyPittmanNoubleAndersonStarters until 66' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Kilmarnock

Walker and Mayo: 4 passesMayo and Vassell: 4 passesPower and Polworth: 4 passesPower and McKenzie: 4 passesPolworth and McKenzie: 4 passesPolworth and Vassell: 4 passesAlebiosu and Wright: 5 passesWright and Polworth: 5 passesArmstrong and Power: 5 passesArmstrong and Vassell: 5 passesWalker and Wright: 6 passesWright and Mayo: 6 passesChambers and McKenzie: 6 passesChambers and Power: 7 passesChambers and Polworth: 7 passesAlebiosu and Polworth: 8 passesMayo and Power: 8 passesMayo and Chambers: 9 passesArmstrong and Polworth: 12 passesAlebiosu and Armstrong: 14 passesWalker: 11 completed passesAlebiosu: 22 completed passesWright: 16 completed passesMayo: 22 completed passesChambers: 22 completed passesArmstrong: 16 completed passesPower: 18 completed passesPolworth: 22 completed passesMcKenzie: 16 completed passesDoidge: 6 completed passesVassell: 10 completed passes2025192241143172623WalkerAlebiosuWrightMayoChambersArmstrongPowerPolworthMcKenzieDoidgeVassellStarters until 62' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Livingston

FromToPasses
DevlinPittman8
PittmanDevlin8
DevlinBradley7
BradleyDevlin5
FitzwaterGeorge5

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
AlebiosuArmstrong13
PolworthArmstrong8
ArmstrongAlebiosu7
ChambersMayo6
MayoChambers5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Livingston

5−0.47−1.312+3.51−3.79+1.55−1.06+1.010+2.717+8.810+4.31−3.71−1.65+1.38+1.01−3.43−0.10−2.44+1.010+6.03+0.73+1.52+1.03+1.66+3.65+3.93+2.80−0.51+0.70−0.63−12.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 23 matches

Kilmarnock

10+4.89+2.111−1.312+5.37+2.18+0.57+0.22−4.16−0.512+4.410+3.48+2.50−3.86+0.74−1.03−1.95+0.91−1.20−4.07+3.12−0.41−0.81+0.22+0.12−0.81−0.43+2.22+1.40−0.40−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 24 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Livingston

0.010.020.010.010.010.030.030.030.010.020.010.010.010.010.030.060.060.020.030.040.010.010.020.40LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.010.020.020.040.010.010.010.030.050.02−0.010.050.01−0.01−0.01−0.11−0.010.070.050.050.07LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.23AttackLivingston1.04 → 1.06Kilmarnock1.00 → 1.00Defence (lower is better)Livingston1.33 → 1.32Kilmarnock1.34 → 1.37

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Livingston
Top six85%93%+8
Kilmarnock
Top six1%<1%−1
11th22%26%+4
Bottom14%19%+5
Ross County
11th26%26%0
Bottom43%42%−1
Dundee United
Top six1%1%0
11th24%23%−1
Bottom23%22%−1

From the forecast before the match (4 February 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

LivingstonKilmarnock
Expected goals1.370.97
Win45%26%
Expected Points1.651.06
Clean sheet38%25%

Livingston 45%Draw 29%Kilmarnock 26%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 47%.

Kilmarnock goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+9%5%1%6%2%9%9%4%1%4%4%2%1%1%10%13%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 4 February 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowLivingston winDrawKilmarnock win
Livingston
Top six85%93%82%77%
Kilmarnock
Top six1%<1%1%3%
11th22%26%22%16%
Bottom14%19%14%6%
Ross County
11th26%26%28%25%
Bottom43%42%40%48%
Dundee United
Top six1%1%1%2%
11th24%23%23%27%
Bottom23%22%25%24%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Livingston

  1. L0–31 FebCeltic (A)xG 0.35–1.51
  2. D0–029 JanHearts (H)xG 0.34–1.63
  3. W4–214 JanSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.46–1.86
  4. W2–07 JanRoss County (A)xG 0.90–0.86
  5. D1–12 JanMotherwell (H)xG 2.40–1.82
  6. D1–128 DecSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.59–1.36

Kilmarnock

  1. W1–01 FebDundee United (H)xG 2.71–1.37
  2. L0–328 JanRoss County (A)xG 1.38–1.74
  3. L2–318 JanRangers (H)xG 0.79–1.49
  4. L0–27 JanCeltic (A)xG 0.08–3.48
  5. D0–02 JanSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.70–0.35
  6. W2–128 DecAberdeen (H)xG 1.91–0.42

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

LivingstonKilmarnock
Position5th9th
Played2324
Won, drawn, lost9–⁠5–⁠96–⁠5–⁠13
Points32 (1.39 per game)23 (0.96 per game)
Expected Points per game1.111.16
Goals24–⁠3320–⁠41
xG per game1.08–⁠1.570.95–⁠1.30
Home: points, xG per game1.64, 1.16–⁠1.401.75, 1.30–⁠1.11
Away: points, xG per game1.17, 1.00–⁠1.720.17, 0.61–⁠1.49
ManagerDavid Martindale (84)Derek McInnes (24)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.23AttackLivingston1.04, 6thKilmarnock1.00, 9thDefence (lower is better)Livingston1.33, 7thKilmarnock1.34, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebLivingston attack: 1.04Kilmarnock attack: 1.001.041.00KilmarnockLivingstonDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebLivingston defence: 1.33Kilmarnock defence: 1.341.341.33

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

LivingstonKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−42%+17%−34%−5%
Counter-attacks−94%+4%−35%−15%
Set pieces+14%+25%+25%+23%
Penalties+73%+30%−79%−17%
Headers−38%+33%+20%−17%
Left side−15%−1%+8%−7%
Centre−32%+13%−38%+2%
Right side−41%+48%−18%+10%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−15%+10%Centre−32%+2%Right side−41%−7%Open play−42%−5%Counter-attacks−94%−15%Set pieces+14%+23%Headers−38%−17%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdLivingston concededLeft side+8%+48%Centre−38%+13%Right side−18%−1%Open play−34%+17%Counter-attacks−35%+4%Set pieces+25%+25%Headers+20%+33%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

LivingstonKilmarnock

1.08xG0.95
1.57xG against1.30
39%Possession45%
9.4Shots11.7
14.9Shots against12.5
3.4Shots on target3.0
1.5Big chances1.3
17.5Touches in the opposition box19.6
277Passes335
61%Pass accuracy66%
3.6Corners4.3
38%Field tilt45%
24.4Final-third entries34.9
7.8Box entries9.2
16.7Passes per defensive action14.9

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.071.31
Ahead290.991.61
Behind191.222.06

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level341.051.06
Ahead181.151.17
Behind380.771.58

xG by period

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.200.146–2
16–300.170.103–2
31–450.200.355–9
46–600.110.313–5
61–750.150.304–10
76–900.260.373–5

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.163–6
16–300.140.252–9
31–450.210.214–6
46–600.250.164–5
61–750.120.194–7
76–900.120.333–8

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Livingston

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWGeorge 18Konovalov 4Hamilton 1Devlin 21Bahamboula 2Obileye 18Fitzwater 15Boyes 6Sean Kelly 6Montano 14Penrice 4Pittman 2Pittman 12Omeonga 11Shinnie 7Holt 15Sean Kelly 15Stephen Kelly 3Goncalves 1Bahamboula 7Shinnie 5Omeonga 3Nouble 10Anderson 9Guthrie 3Stephen Kelly 5Nouble 5Pittman 44-3-3 in 8 of 23 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (8), 4-3-2-1 (5), 4-2-3-1 (3), 3-5-1-1 (2), 3-5-2 (2), 5-4-1 (1), 4-3-1-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTWalker 14Hemming 10Mayo 10Alebiosu 10Armstrong 2Taylor 17Wright 15Mayo 8Stokes 5Chrisene 7McInroy 6Polworth 2Armstrong 9McKenzie 5Jones 3Polworth 9Armstrong 4Alston 4Power 19Donnelly 8Alebiosu 1McKenzie 8Jones 6Taylor 3Doidge 8Cameron 5Robinson 4Lafferty 8Shaw 5Vassell 44-4-2 in 7 of 24 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (7), 3-4-2-1 (4), 5-3-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (3), 3-4-3 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-3-3-1 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
4 November 2022Kilmarnock2–3LivingstonxG 1.04–1.68
17 September 2022Livingston1–0KilmarnockxG 0.83–0.11
27 January 2021Livingston2–0KilmarnockxG 1.10–0.59
26 December 2020Kilmarnock1–2LivingstonxG 1.22–0.68
17 October 2020Livingston1–3KilmarnockxG 1.53–2.27

5 league meetings since 2020/21: Livingston won 4, Kilmarnock won 1, and 0 were drawn. Goals 9–6 and xG 1.16–1.05 per game.

Key players

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Anderson10909410.250.07
Sean Kelly211,748220.190.11
Nouble151,348320.170.08
Montano151,191410.130.10

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong171,558640.200.22
Shaw7628000.250.02
Jones10794000.100.16
Stokes7626200.190.03

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.