Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Livingston 1–0 Kilmarnock

Saturday 17 September 2022, 15:00 · Tony Macaroni Arena · Round 8 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Grant Irvine · Attendance 2,253

Livingston Montano 25'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

LivingstonKilmarnock
Goals10
xG0.830.11
Expected Points2.000.56

Livingston 52%Draw 44%Kilmarnock 4%

Most likely score 0–0, 39%. Final score 1–0, 34%.

Kilmarnock goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+4%5%13%2%3%39%34%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.7510153045607590HTGoncalves on for Guthrie, 57'Penrice on for Bahamboula, 77'Fitzwater on for Montano, 90'Lyons on for Polworth, Jones on for Dorsett, and Murray on for Armstrong, 60'Lafferty on for Chrisene, 82'McInroy on for Power, 83'Montano 25'Livingston 0.83Kilmarnock 0.1100.250.50.7510153045607590HTGoncalves on for Guthrie, 57'Penrice on for Bahamboula, 77'Fitzwater on for Montano, 90'Lyons on for Polworth, Jones on for Dorsett, and Murray on for Armstrong, 60'Lafferty on for Chrisene, 82'McInroy on for Power, 83'Montano 25'0.830.11LivingstonKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

LivingstonKilmarnock

0.83 +0.01xG0.11 −0.71
0.87 −0.29xG on target0.04 −0.38
9 +0.3Shots3 −9.7
1 −2.7Shots on target1 −1.5
2 +0.3Big chances1 +0.3
47% +12Possession53% +10
314 +48Passes348 +32
67% +2Pass accuracy65% −3
77% +41Field tilt23% −17
38 +13Final-third entries28 −5
15 +7.3Box entries6 −3.5
10.0 −8Passes per defensive action11.5 −4
5 +2.7Corners4 −0.5
9 −5Tackles28 +14
15 +4Interceptions9 −2
14 −11Clearances20 +3
1 −1.2Saves0 −4.7
14 0Fouls12 −2
0 −0.8Offsides3 +1.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Livingston

Pittman 75', 0.19 xGOmeonga 10', 0.18 xGHolt 30', 0.06 xGBahamboula 2', 0.04 xGOmeonga 6', 0.04 xGGuthrie 39', 0.03 xGMontano 53', 0.03 xGHolt 64', 0.03 xGMontano 25', 0.23 xG, goal28%0.23 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.23 xG, 1 goal32%0.26 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.26 xG, 0 goals10%0.08 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals30%0.25 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.25 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Doidge 83', 0.08 xGDoidge 45', 0.02 xGWright 70', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals100%0.11 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

LivingstonKilmarnock

0.48 5 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.34 4 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.11 3 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
25 min (27%) · Livingston 0.49, Kilmarnock 0.00 xG
Livingston ahead
69 min (73%) · Livingston 0.34, Kilmarnock 0.11 xG

Line-ups

12624111887331928GeorgeDevlinObileyeSean KellyMontanoHoltPittmanBahamboulaOmeongaNoubleGuthrieGoalYellow card90'77'57'Livingston 4-2-3-1David Martindale11923253143311726HemmingWrightMayoDorsettAlebiosuPolworthPowerChriseneArmstrongMcKenzieDoidgeYellow cardYellow card60'60'83'82'60'Kilmarnock 3-4-2-1Derek McInnes

Livingston substitutes

  • 57' Goncalves for Guthrie
  • 77' Penrice for Bahamboula
  • 90' Fitzwater for Montano

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 60' Lyons for Polworth
  • 60' Murray for Armstrong
  • 60' Jones for Dorsett
  • 82' Lafferty for Chrisene
  • 83' McInroy for Power

Players

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GeorgeGK900.000.0000.0322
DevlinRB900.000.0300.0653
ObileyeCB900.000.0200.0242
Sean KellyCB9010.000.2210.1587
MontanoLB9010.260.1110.1487
HoltDM900.090.0500.0716
Pittman DM900.190.0410.0123
BahamboulaRW770.040.2110.0532
OmeongaAM900.210.0200.0343
NoubleLW900.000.303−0.0632
GuthrieST570.030.010−0.0400
GoncalvesFW330.000.020−0.0120
PenriceDF130.000.0100.0240
FitzwaterDF00.000.0000.0001

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HemmingGK900.000.0000.0330
WrightCB900.010.0100.0668
Mayo CB900.000.0000.0219
DorsettCB600.000.0200.0744
AlebiosuRWB900.000.0300.1386
PolworthCM600.000.0100.0014
PowerCM830.000.0200.0025
Chrisene LWB820.000.0410.1247
ArmstrongAM600.000.0100.0433
McKenzieAM900.000.000−0.0103
DoidgeST900.100.000−0.0502
LyonsMF300.000.0000.0113
MurrayFW300.000.0000.0002
JonesMF300.000.0400.0410
LaffertyFW80.000.0000.0000
McInroyMF70.000.1010.0013

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Livingston

Devlin and Guthrie: 3 passesObileye and Sean Kelly: 3 passesObileye and Montano: 3 passesObileye and Omeonga: 3 passesSean Kelly and Holt: 3 passesMontano and Holt: 3 passesMontano and Omeonga: 3 passesHolt and Nouble: 3 passesOmeonga and Nouble: 3 passesNouble and Guthrie: 3 passesDevlin and Obileye: 4 passesSean Kelly and Montano: 4 passesMontano and Guthrie: 4 passesHolt and Omeonga: 4 passesGeorge and Sean Kelly: 5 passesDevlin and Holt: 5 passesMontano and Pittman: 5 passesGeorge and Devlin: 6 passesMontano and Nouble: 6 passesGeorge and Obileye: 7 passesDevlin and Omeonga: 8 passesSean Kelly and Nouble: 10 passesDevlin and Bahamboula: 13 passesGeorge: 10 completed passesDevlin: 21 completed passesObileye: 18 completed passesSean Kelly: 18 completed passesMontano: 14 completed passesHolt: 13 completed passesPittman: 7 completed passesBahamboula: 8 completed passesOmeonga: 14 completed passesNouble: 10 completed passesGuthrie: 4 completed passes12624111887331928GeorgeDevlinObileyeSean KellyMontanoHoltPittmanBahamboulaOmeongaNoubleGuthrieStarters until 57' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Kilmarnock

Hemming and Chrisene: 3 passesDorsett and Polworth: 3 passesMayo and Alebiosu: 3 passesAlebiosu and Armstrong: 3 passesChrisene and McKenzie: 3 passesChrisene and Doidge: 3 passesHemming and Doidge: 4 passesWright and Dorsett: 4 passesWright and Power: 4 passesWright and Polworth: 4 passesPower and Doidge: 4 passesPolworth and Doidge: 4 passesPower and Polworth: 5 passesDorsett and Power: 6 passesChrisene and Power: 7 passesChrisene and Polworth: 7 passesHemming and Wright: 8 passesDorsett and Chrisene: 9 passesHemming and Dorsett: 10 passesPower and Armstrong: 10 passesWright and Alebiosu: 11 passesAlebiosu and Power: 13 passesHemming: 19 completed passesWright: 20 completed passesDorsett: 21 completed passesMayo: 6 completed passesAlebiosu: 20 completed passesChrisene: 20 completed passesPower: 25 completed passesPolworth: 13 completed passesArmstrong: 11 completed passesMcKenzie: 2 completed passesDoidge: 8 completed passes11932253343111726HemmingWrightDorsettMayoAlebiosuChrisenePowerPolworthArmstrongMcKenzieDoidgeStarters until 60' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Livingston

FromToPasses
PittmanMontano10
Sean KellyNouble9
OmeongaDevlin7
MontanoNouble7
GeorgeSean Kelly7

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
PowerAlebiosu10
AlebiosuPower9
WrightAlebiosu8
HemmingWright8
HemmingDoidge7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Livingston

2−4.37−0.55−3.23−2.86−0.32−4.25−1.77−1.370.06+0.52−0.35+1.210+2.21−3.24+1.05+3.79+6.59+4.73+0.51+0.22+1.21−0.22+0.22+1.01+0.80−0.52+1.81+1.07−5.74−5.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 6 matches

Kilmarnock

11+6.04−3.014−0.214+6.39+2.76+1.75−2.07−0.22−4.510+2.760.08+4.040.07+2.81−3.78+2.82−1.83+0.34+0.32−2.71−1.82+0.81+0.50−1.70−2.00−1.73+2.50−0.30−0.50−0.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 6 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Livingston

0.030.010.020.020.020.010.020.020.050.010.030.060.030.030.020.060.010.03−0.02−0.110.010.11LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.020.020.010.010.020.020.020.040.010.030.010.010.010.030.04−0.020.01−0.050.050.060.07LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.19AttackLivingston1.00 → 1.01Kilmarnock0.96 → 0.93Defence (lower is better)Livingston1.28 → 1.24Kilmarnock1.29 → 1.30

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Livingston
Top six48%59%+11
11th5%3%−2
Bottom2%1%−1
Kilmarnock
Top six21%15%−6
11th15%16%+1
Bottom13%17%+4

From the forecast before the match (17 September 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

LivingstonKilmarnock
Expected goals1.310.94
Win45%26%
Expected Points1.631.07
Clean sheet39%27%

Livingston 45%Draw 29%Kilmarnock 26%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 45%.

Kilmarnock goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+9%5%1%6%2%9%9%4%1%4%4%2%1%1%11%13%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 17 September 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowLivingston winDrawKilmarnock win
Livingston
Top six48%59%44%36%
11th5%3%6%6%
Bottom2%1%2%4%
Kilmarnock
Top six21%15%20%32%
11th15%16%15%11%
Bottom13%17%12%8%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Livingston

  1. W1–03 SepHearts (H)xG 1.19–0.69
  2. L0–527 AugAberdeen (A)xG 0.53–4.14
  3. L0–120 AugMotherwell (A)xG 0.27–1.43
  4. W2–113 AugHibernian (H)xG 1.45–1.86
  5. W1–07 AugDundee United (A)xG 0.90–0.51
  6. L1–230 JulRangers (H)xG 0.57–1.15

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–13 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.39–1.44
  2. W2–127 AugMotherwell (H)xG 1.52–0.70
  3. L0–120 AugRoss County (A)xG 0.70–0.65
  4. L0–514 AugCeltic (H)xG 0.69–3.34
  5. L0–26 AugRangers (A)xG 0.37–1.77
  6. D1–130 JulDundee United (H)xG 1.24–0.38

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

LivingstonKilmarnock
Position7th11th
Played66
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠0–⁠31–⁠1–⁠4
Points9 (1.50 per game)4 (0.67 per game)
Expected Points per game0.951.06
Goals5–⁠93–⁠11
xG per game0.82–⁠1.630.82–⁠1.38
Home: points, xG per game2.00, 1.07–⁠1.231.33, 1.15–⁠1.47
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 0.57–⁠2.030.00, 0.49–⁠1.29
ManagerDavid Martindale (67)Derek McInnes (6)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.19AttackLivingston1.00, 7thKilmarnock0.96, 8thDefence (lower is better)Livingston1.28, 7thKilmarnock1.29, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepLivingston attack: 1.00Kilmarnock attack: 0.961.000.96KilmarnockLivingstonDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepLivingston defence: 1.28Kilmarnock defence: 1.291.291.28

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

LivingstonKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−33%−5%−40%−8%
Counter-attacks−100%−81%−16%+7%
Set pieces−17%+45%−8%+94%
Penalties−100%+227%−100%−100%
Headers−27%+81%−42%−24%
Left side−20%−2%−5%+5%
Centre−44%−5%−44%+20%
Right side−25%+21%−40%+19%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−20%+19%Centre−44%+20%Right side−25%+5%Open play−33%−8%Counter-attacks−100%+7%Set pieces−17%+94%Headers−27%−24%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdLivingston concededLeft side−5%+21%Centre−44%−5%Right side−40%−2%Open play−40%−5%Counter-attacks−16%−81%Set pieces−8%+45%Headers−42%+81%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

LivingstonKilmarnock

0.82xG0.82
1.63xG against1.38
35%Possession43%
8.7Shots12.7
15.5Shots against14.7
3.7Shots on target2.5
1.7Big chances0.7
266Passes316
65%Pass accuracy68%
2.3Corners4.5
36%Field tilt40%
24.6Final-third entries33.1
7.7Box entries9.5
17.8Passes per defensive action15.1

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level391.041.37
Ahead360.851.16
Behind140.133.55

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level360.741.25
Ahead21.160.51
Behind510.861.51

xG by period

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.102–0
16–300.120.051–0
31–450.210.330–1
46–600.070.371–2
61–750.140.500–5
76–900.120.281–1

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.060.280–3
16–300.140.060–0
31–450.200.260–3
46–600.210.200–1
61–750.070.121–0
76–900.140.472–4

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Livingston

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMAMAMSTGeorge 6Devlin 6Fitzwater 5Obileye 6Sean Kelly 1Montaño 5Cancar 1Oméonga 4Holt 6Pittman 2Sean Kelly 5Gonçalves 1Shinnie 5Oméonga 2Pittman 4Penrice 1Nouble 64-3-2-1 in 4 of 6 starts

Formations: 4-3-2-1 (4), 4-3-3 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTWalker 6Alebiosu 5Taylor 1Wright 3Taylor 3Dorsett 1Mayo 5McInroy 2Chrisene 1Polworth 1McKenzie 2Alebiosu 1Armstrong 1Power 6Armstrong 1Polworth 3Donnelly 2Taylor 2Shaw 1McInroy 1Lafferty 5Cameron 1Shaw 5Wright 14-4-2 in 2 of 6 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (2), 5-3-2 (2), 3-4-2-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
27 January 2021Livingston2–0KilmarnockxG 1.10–0.59
26 December 2020Kilmarnock1–2LivingstonxG 1.22–0.68
17 October 2020Livingston1–3KilmarnockxG 1.53–2.27

3 league meetings since 2020/21: Livingston won 2, Kilmarnock won 1, and 0 were drawn. Goals 5–4 and xG 1.10–1.36 per game.

Key players

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nouble6517200.280.08
Holt6508020.020.14
Obileye6540100.120.04
Pittman6540000.100.01

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shaw6475000.270.02
Power6484000.040.17
Taylor6461200.080.00
Alebiosu6493000.010.04

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.