Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Livingston 2–0 Kilmarnock

Wednesday 27 January 2021, 19:45 · Tony Macaroni Arena · Round 26 · Half-time 0–0

Livingston Kabia 89', Pittman 90'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

LivingstonKilmarnock
Goals20
xG1.100.59
Expected Points1.760.88

Livingston 47%Draw 36%Kilmarnock 17%

Most likely score 1–0, 20%. Final score 2–0, 11%.

Kilmarnock goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+12%2%3%11%9%2%3%3%16%20%19%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTEmmanuel-Thomas on for Reilly, 59'Robinson on for Mullin, 60'Sibbald on for Bartley, 67'Kabia on for Forrest, 76'Millen on for Findlay, 46'Dabo on for Burke, 75'Kabamba on for Oakley, 86'Kabia 89'Pittman 90'Livingston 1.10Kilmarnock 0.5900.511.50153045607590HTEmmanuel-Thomas on for Reilly, 59'Robinson on for Mullin, 60'Sibbald on for Bartley, 67'Kabia on for Forrest, 76'Millen on for Findlay, 46'Dabo on for Burke, 75'Kabamba on for Oakley, 86'Kabia 89'Pittman 90'1.100.59LivingstonKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

LivingstonKilmarnock

1.10 −0.16xG0.59 −0.41
0.64 −0.48xG on target0.07 −0.94
12 +2Shots5 −5
3 0.0Shots on target2 −1.0
2 +0.4Big chances1 0.0
22 +3Touches in the opposition box8 −10
62% +15Possession38% −8
454 +114Passes285 −82
67% +6Pass accuracy50% −20
71% +22Field tilt29% −19
33 0Final-third entries21 −16
7 −1.7Box entries4 −5.1
22.6 +10Passes per defensive action17.9 +3
10 +5.0Corners0 −5.0
10 −6Tackles15 +3
11 −1Interceptions15 +4
7 −12Clearances28 +12
2 +0.1Saves1 −1.3
8 −6Fouls11 −1
3 +1.0Offsides2 −0.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Livingston

Guthrie 16', 0.35 xGForrest 33', 0.07 xGMullin 18', 0.06 xGForrest 70', 0.06 xGGuthrie 37', 0.05 xGForrest 8', 0.04 xGGuthrie 67', 0.04 xGKabia 80', 0.04 xGRobinson 89', 0.03 xGForrest 9', 0.02 xGPittman 90', 0.28 xG, goalKabia 89', 0.05 xG, goal32%0.35 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.35 xG, 0 goals54%0.59 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.59 xG, 2 goals7%0.08 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals7%0.08 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Oakley 56', 0.38 xGBurke 49', 0.09 xGRossi 64', 0.05 xGFindlay 6', 0.04 xGPinnock 75', 0.03 xG64%0.38 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.38 xG, 0 goals15%0.09 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals15%0.09 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.09 xG, 0 goals5%0.03 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

LivingstonKilmarnock

0.46 4 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.41 2 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.09 1 shot, 0 goals
0.64 8 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.09 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
89 min (98%) · Livingston 0.81, Kilmarnock 0.59 xG
Livingston ahead
2 min (2%) · Livingston 0.28, Kilmarnock 0.00 xG

Line-ups

32252736181481120StryjekDevlinFitzwaterGuthrieBrownBartleyHoltMullinPittmanForrestReillyYellow cardYellow cardGoal67'60'76'59'Livingston 4-2-3-1David Martindale23214173296271979RogersMcGowanRossiFindlayHaunstrupBurkePowerTshibolaPinnockMcKenzieOakleyYellow cardYellow cardYellow card46'75'86'Kilmarnock 4-4-1-1Alex Dyer

Livingston substitutes

  • 59' Emmanuel-Thomas for Reilly
  • 60' Robinson for Mullin
  • 67' Sibbald for Bartley
  • 76' Kabia for Forrest · goal 89'

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 46' Millen for Findlay
  • 75' Dabo for Burke
  • 86' Kabamba for Oakley

Players

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
StryjekGK900.000.0200.0860
Devlin RB900.000.0600.1052
FitzwaterCB900.000.0100.07106
GuthrieCB900.440.0600.0736
BrownLB900.000.0100.0023
Bartley DM670.000.0100.0100
HoltDM900.000.0300.0441
MullinRW600.060.1430.1143
PittmanAM9010.280.0910.0521
ForrestLW760.200.0710.0934
ReillyST590.000.040−0.0900
Emmanuel-ThomasFW310.000.0100.0310
RobinsonMF300.030.000−0.0200
SibbaldMF230.000.0420.0121
KabiaMF1410.080.000−0.0101

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RogersGK900.000.0000.0452
McGowanRB900.000.0300.1038
RossiCB900.050.0000.0323
FindlayCB460.040.0000.0006
Haunstrup LB900.000.0100.04311
BurkeRM750.090.0000.0431
Power CM900.000.0110.0438
TshibolaCM900.000.0100.0128
PinnockLM900.030.1320.1242
McKenzie AM900.000.1010.0112
OakleyST860.380.0100.0204
MillenDF440.000.0100.0105
DaboMF150.000.0000.0003
KabambaFW40.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Livingston

Brown and Bartley: 4 passesBartley and Forrest: 4 passesHolt and Reilly: 4 passesStryjek and Holt: 5 passesMullin and Forrest: 5 passesForrest and Reilly: 5 passesDevlin and Pittman: 6 passesBartley and Mullin: 6 passesStryjek and Devlin: 7 passesDevlin and Bartley: 7 passesHolt and Forrest: 7 passesFitzwater and Guthrie: 8 passesFitzwater and Holt: 8 passesBrown and Forrest: 8 passesStryjek and Guthrie: 9 passesDevlin and Holt: 9 passesDevlin and Mullin: 9 passesGuthrie and Holt: 9 passesBrown and Holt: 9 passesStryjek and Fitzwater: 12 passesDevlin and Fitzwater: 14 passesStryjek: 18 completed passesDevlin: 28 completed passesFitzwater: 25 completed passesGuthrie: 21 completed passesBrown: 17 completed passesBartley: 16 completed passesHolt: 34 completed passesMullin: 14 completed passesPittman: 12 completed passesForrest: 15 completed passesReilly: 7 completed passes32252736181481120StryjekDevlinFitzwaterGuthrieBrownBartleyHoltMullinPittmanForrestReillyStarters until 59' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Kilmarnock

McGowan and Rossi: 3 passesRossi and Power: 3 passesTshibola and McKenzie: 3 passesHaunstrup and Power: 4 passesHaunstrup and McKenzie: 5 passesMcGowan and Power: 6 passesMcGowan and Pinnock: 6 passesRossi and Tshibola: 6 passesPinnock and McKenzie: 6 passesHaunstrup and Tshibola: 7 passesRogers: 5 completed passesMcGowan: 11 completed passesFindlay: 3 completed passesRossi: 11 completed passesHaunstrup: 15 completed passesBurke: 2 completed passesPower: 10 completed passesTshibola: 11 completed passesPinnock: 9 completed passesMcKenzie: 6 completed passesOakley: 0 completed passes23217143296271979RogersMcGowanFindlayRossiHaunstrupBurkePowerTshibolaPinnockMcKenzieOakleyStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Livingston

FromToPasses
FitzwaterStryjek14
GuthrieStryjek10
DevlinFitzwater10
HoltBrown10
GuthrieFitzwater9

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
PowerMcGowan7
TshibolaHaunstrup6
HaunstrupMcKenzie6
HaunstrupTshibola5
McGowanPinnock5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Livingston

3−2.12−2.92−3.22−3.112+3.79+2.32−4.610+0.711+5.84−1.22−2.02−3.64−2.56+1.64−0.24+1.02−1.93−1.52−1.12−0.41−0.10−1.51−1.63+1.60−0.50−0.70−0.61−0.13−8.31−6.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 23 matches

Kilmarnock

7+3.87+1.319+6.511+4.016+9.93−3.75−1.92−4.512+3.816+7.91−3.15−0.63−1.18+3.46+0.72−1.21−2.75+2.42−1.33−1.01−1.01−0.80−1.72+0.72+0.30−0.90−0.20−0.80−0.51+0.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 23 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Livingston

0.020.030.020.040.010.020.010.060.010.030.010.020.01−0.04−0.010.09−0.01−0.050.030.140.13LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.030.010.010.010.020.010.010.030.010.040.070.07−0.010.010.010.010.11LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.18AttackLivingston1.13 → 1.13Kilmarnock0.95 → 0.94Defence (lower is better)Livingston1.08 → 1.07Kilmarnock1.19 → 1.20

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Livingston
Top six96%99%+3
Kilmarnock
Top six23%17%−6
11th6%7%+1
Bottom1%2%+1
Dundee United
Top six30%31%+1
St. Mirren
Top six32%34%+2
11th5%4%−1

From the forecast before the match (27 January 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

LivingstonKilmarnock
Expected goals1.250.86
Win45%25%
Expected Points1.651.05
Clean sheet42%29%

Livingston 45%Draw 30%Kilmarnock 25%

Most likely score 1–0, 14%. Both sides score 42%.

Kilmarnock goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+10%4%1%6%2%9%8%4%1%4%3%1%1%1%13%14%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 27 January 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowLivingston winDrawKilmarnock win
Livingston
Top six96%99%96%92%
Kilmarnock
Top six23%17%21%38%
11th6%7%5%3%
Bottom1%2%1%<1%
Dundee United
Top six30%31%31%25%
St. Mirren
Top six32%34%32%29%
11th5%4%5%5%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Livingston

  1. D2–220 JanCeltic (H)xG 0.77–1.69
  2. D0–016 JanCeltic (A)xG 1.22–0.42
  3. W3–110 JanRoss County (H)xG 1.74–1.28
  4. W3–02 JanHibernian (A)xG 1.18–0.49
  5. W2–126 DecKilmarnock (A)xG 0.68–1.22
  6. W2–023 DecHamilton Academical (A)xG 2.20–0.05

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–216 JanHibernian (A)xG 0.64–0.68
  2. W2–09 JanHamilton Academical (H)xG 1.50–0.43
  3. D1–12 JanSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.97–0.52
  4. W2–030 DecMotherwell (A)xG 1.78–0.40
  5. L1–226 DecLivingston (H)xG 1.22–0.68
  6. L0–223 DecDundee United (A)xG 0.65–0.93

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

LivingstonKilmarnock
Position5th8th
Played2323
Won, drawn, lost9–⁠5–⁠97–⁠3–⁠13
Points32 (1.39 per game)24 (1.04 per game)
Expected Points per game1.451.19
Goals30–⁠2924–⁠28
xG per game1.26–⁠1.101.00–⁠1.29
Home: points, xG per game1.27, 1.11–⁠1.331.27, 1.14–⁠1.26
Away: points, xG per game1.50, 1.40–⁠0.880.83, 0.87–⁠1.33
ManagerDavid Martindale (8)Alex Dyer (23)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.18AttackLivingston1.13, 5thKilmarnock0.95, 8thDefence (lower is better)Livingston1.08, 4thKilmarnock1.19, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanLivingston attack: 1.13Kilmarnock attack: 0.951.130.95KilmarnockLivingstonDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanLivingston defence: 1.08Kilmarnock defence: 1.191.191.08

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

LivingstonKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+1%−27%−35%−1%
Counter-attacks−100%−32%−94%−74%
Set pieces+17%+12%average+16%
Penalties−28%−4%+20%−4%
Headers+9%+2%−20%+1%
Left side−10%−37%−14%+6%
Centre+22%−6%−33%−1%
Right side−24%−12%−31%−1%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−10%−1%Centre+22%−1%Right side−24%+6%Open play+1%−1%Counter-attacks−100%−74%Set pieces+17%+16%Headers+9%+1%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdLivingston concededLeft side−14%−12%Centre−33%−6%Right side−31%−37%Open play−35%−27%Counter-attacks−94%−32%Set piecesaverage+12%Headers−20%+2%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

LivingstonKilmarnock

1.26xG1.00
1.10xG against1.29
47%Possession46%
10.5Shots10.0
9.4Shots against13.6
3.0Shots on target3.0
1.6Big chances1.0
18.7Touches in the opposition box17.7
340Passes367
60%Pass accuracy70%
5.0Corners5.0
50%Field tilt48%
32.9Final-third entries37.5
8.7Box entries9.1
12.8Passes per defensive action14.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level471.100.98
Ahead161.301.07
Behind261.521.33

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.001.20
Ahead211.071.48
Behind270.951.29

xG by period

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.190.096–2
16–300.230.232–11
31–450.120.272–6
46–600.240.219–8
61–750.230.145–0
76–900.250.166–2

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.163–4
16–300.160.224–6
31–450.190.155–2
46–600.200.175–5
61–750.210.244–3
76–900.150.353–8

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Livingston

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTStryjek 12McCrorie 11Devlin 20McMillan 1Robinson 1Ambrose 9Fitzwater 6Guthrie 22Brown 7Taylor-Sinclair 2Serrano 13Brown 4McMillan 2Bartley 18Pittman 3Lawson 2Holt 11Sibbald 9Forrest 2Mullin 7Robinson 6Fitzwater 4Pittman 14Bartley 3Emmanuel-Thomas 1Forrest 13Sibbald 6Pittman 1Emmanuel-Thomas 5Robinson 3Tiffoney 34-2-3-1 in 12 of 23 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (12), 3-4-2-1 (4), 4-3-3 (2), 4-4-2 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 5-3-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWRogers 22Eastwood 1McGowan 10Millen 9Rossi 3Broadfoot 22Findlay 20Dikamona 4Waters 16Haunstrup 6Tshibola 1Power 18Kabamba 5Whitehall 2Dicker 13Mulumbu 3Kiltie 2Tshibola 19McKenzie 3Pinnock 1Burke 16Pinnock 2Brophy 2Kabamba 12Brophy 6Kiltie 3Kiltie 9McKenzie 7Pinnock 44-3-3 in 9 of 23 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (9), 4-4-2 (7), 4-2-3-1 (3), 4-1-4-1 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 4-5-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
26 December 2020Kilmarnock1–2LivingstonxG 1.22–0.68
17 October 2020Livingston1–3KilmarnockxG 1.53–2.27

2 league meetings since 2020/21: Livingston won 1, Kilmarnock won 1, and 0 were drawn. Goals 3–4 and xG 1.10–1.75 per game.

Key players

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Forrest151,336410.200.24
Emmanuel-Thomas6574200.360.03
Mullin8699220.100.19
Robinson131,192410.200.09

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Burke181,569630.250.24
Brophy8637200.320.02
Kabamba171,575500.290.02
Pinnock7713030.050.23

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.