Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Kilmarnock 2–3 Livingston

Friday 4 November 2022, 19:45 · Rugby Park · Round 14 · Half-time 2–1 · Referee Colin Steven · Attendance 5,239

Kilmarnock Wright 4', 45+2'

Livingston Anderson 39', Sean Kelly 61' (pen), Stokes 75' (og)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockLivingston
Goals23
xG1.041.68
Non-penalty xG1.040.90
Expected Points0.811.91

Kilmarnock 18%Draw 28%Livingston 54%

Most likely score 1–1, 16%. Final score 2–3, 3%.

Livingston goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+3%5%3%6%1%2%7%8%3%2%2%12%12%16%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTAlston on for McKenzie, 66'Mayo on for Taylor, Shaw on for Cameron, and Polworth on for Donnelly, 79'Murray on for Power, 86'Montano on for Longridge and Omeonga on for Stephen Kelly, 56'Shinnie on for Bahamboula and Holt on for Anderson, 84'Wright 4'Wright 45+2'Anderson 39'Sean Kelly 61' (pen)Stokes 75' (og)Livingston 1.68Kilmarnock 1.0400.511.520153045607590HTAlston on for McKenzie, 66'Mayo on for Taylor, Shaw on for Cameron, and Polworth on for Donnelly, 79'Murray on for Power, 86'Montano on for Longridge and Omeonga on for Stephen Kelly, 56'Shinnie on for Bahamboula and Holt on for Anderson, 84'Wright 4'Wright 45+2'Anderson 39'Sean Kelly 61' (pen)Stokes 75' (og)1.681.04KilmarnockLivingston

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockLivingston

1.04 +0.19xG1.68 +0.80
1.04Non-penalty xG0.90
1.28 +0.71xG on target1.61 +0.76
13 +2.0Shots10 +0.3
4 +1.0Shots on target4 +1.0
1 −0.1Big chances1 −0.6
15 −1Touches in the opposition box15 −9
51% +6Possession49% +10
327 −7Passes334 +53
62% −6Pass accuracy62% 0
55% +9Field tilt45% +2
26 −8Final-third entries31 +3
6 −3.3Box entries8 −1.1
12.6 −2Passes per defensive action14.7 −1
5 −0.1Corners4 +0.3
19 +3Tackles12 −1
11 0Interceptions11 +1
23 +5Clearances17 −7
2 −1.6Saves2 +0.1
13 0Fouls12 −2
3 +1.1Offsides1 −0.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Stokes 45', 0.24 xGStokes 59', 0.16 xGCameron 48', 0.10 xGDonnelly 29', 0.09 xGMurray 87', 0.09 xGArmstrong 50', 0.03 xGCameron 69', 0.03 xGArmstrong 90+5', 0.03 xGDonnelly 28', 0.02 xGJones 67', 0.02 xGDonnelly 45+1', 0.01 xGWright 4', 0.20 xG, goalWright 45+2', 0.01 xG, goal16%0.16 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.16 xG, 0 goals54%0.56 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.56 xG, 1 goal21%0.22 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.22 xG, 1 goal4%0.04 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals5%0.05 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Livingston

Anderson 33', 0.39 xGNouble 19', 0.20 xGObileye 17', 0.13 xGBahamboula 10', 0.05 xGBahamboula 31', 0.03 xGBahamboula 72', 0.03 xGObileye 73', 0.03 xGOmeonga 81', 0.00 xGAnderson 39', 0.03 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals58%0.52 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.52 xG, 0 goals28%0.25 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.25 xG, 0 goals8%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals7%0.06 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.06 xG, 1 goal

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockLivingston

0.23 6 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.74 7 shots, 1 goal
0.10 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.71 6 shots, 2 goalsSet pieces0.15 2 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
26 min (27%) · Kilmarnock 0.52, Livingston 0.07 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
51 min (53%) · Kilmarnock 0.40, Livingston 1.61 xG
Livingston ahead
20 min (21%) · Kilmarnock 0.12, Livingston 0.00 xG

Line-ups

12551964227111027HemmingAlebiosuTaylorWrightStokesPowerDonnellyMcKenzieArmstrongJonesCameronYellow cardGoalGoalYellow cardOwn goalYellow card79'86'79'66'79'Kilmarnock 4-2-3-1Derek McInnes12653248177919GeorgeDevlinObileyeFitzwaterLongridgeSean KellyPittmanStephen KellyBahamboulaAndersonNoubleGoalYellow cardGoalYellow card56'56'84'84'Livingston 4-3-1-2David Martindale

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 66' Alston for McKenzie
  • 79' Mayo for Taylor
  • 79' Polworth for Donnelly
  • 79' Shaw for Cameron
  • 86' Murray for Power

Livingston substitutes

  • 56' Omeonga for Stephen Kelly · yellow card 90'
  • 56' Montano for Longridge
  • 84' Shinnie for Bahamboula
  • 84' Holt for Anderson

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HemmingGK900.000.0000.0110
AlebiosuRB900.000.0410.08411
Taylor CB790.000.0000.02311
Wright CB9020.210.0000.0227
Stokes LB900.410.0100.0444
PowerDM860.000.0100.0225
DonnellyDM790.120.0000.0334
McKenzieRW660.000.000−0.0112
ArmstrongAM9020.060.1640.0151
JonesLW900.020.1240.1273
CameronST790.130.0000.0316
AlstonMF240.000.000−0.0110
MayoDF110.000.0000.0101
PolworthMF110.000.000−0.0211
ShawFW110.000.0000.0000
MurrayMF40.090.0000.0110

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GeorgeGK900.000.0000.0461
DevlinRB900.000.0200.0125
ObileyeCB900.160.0200.1925
FitzwaterCB900.000.0320.12106
LongridgeLB560.000.0000.0348
Sean Kelly CM9010.790.0510.0112
PittmanCM900.000.0200.0123
Stephen KellyCM5610.000.0310.0031
BahamboulaAM840.110.0300.0542
AndersonST8410.420.0410.0721
Nouble ST900.200.0000.0122
Omeonga MF340.000.0000.0112
MontanoFW340.000.0200.0883
ShinnieMF60.000.0000.0112
HoltMF60.000.0000.0002

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Hemming and Wright: 3 passesHemming and Cameron: 3 passesWright and Power: 3 passesTaylor and Power: 3 passesTaylor and Armstrong: 3 passesStokes and Power: 3 passesStokes and Donnelly: 3 passesPower and Armstrong: 3 passesMcKenzie and Armstrong: 3 passesMcKenzie and Jones: 3 passesAlebiosu and Taylor: 4 passesStokes and Cameron: 4 passesDonnelly and Armstrong: 4 passesAlebiosu and McKenzie: 5 passesTaylor and Donnelly: 5 passesPower and McKenzie: 5 passesHemming and Taylor: 8 passesStokes and Jones: 8 passesArmstrong and Jones: 10 passesAlebiosu and Power: 14 passesAlebiosu and Armstrong: 14 passesHemming: 10 completed passesAlebiosu: 28 completed passesWright: 6 completed passesTaylor: 15 completed passesStokes: 15 completed passesPower: 19 completed passesDonnelly: 10 completed passesMcKenzie: 10 completed passesArmstrong: 20 completed passesJones: 12 completed passesCameron: 0 completed passes12519564227111027HemmingAlebiosuWrightTaylorStokesPowerDonnellyMcKenzieArmstrongJonesCameronStarters until 66' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Livingston

Devlin and Pittman: 3 passesFitzwater and Sean Kelly: 3 passesFitzwater and Pittman: 3 passesFitzwater and Bahamboula: 3 passesStephen Kelly and Sean Kelly: 3 passesStephen Kelly and Anderson: 3 passesGeorge and Devlin: 4 passesDevlin and Obileye: 4 passesDevlin and Stephen Kelly: 4 passesFitzwater and Nouble: 4 passesObileye and Sean Kelly: 4 passesStephen Kelly and Pittman: 4 passesPittman and Bahamboula: 4 passesGeorge and Obileye: 5 passesLongridge and Stephen Kelly: 5 passesStephen Kelly and Nouble: 5 passesGeorge and Fitzwater: 7 passesLongridge and Nouble: 7 passesFitzwater and Obileye: 8 passesFitzwater and Stephen Kelly: 8 passesLongridge and Sean Kelly: 8 passesDevlin and Bahamboula: 15 passesFitzwater and Longridge: 17 passesGeorge: 11 completed passesDevlin: 15 completed passesFitzwater: 31 completed passesObileye: 14 completed passesLongridge: 23 completed passesStephen Kelly: 21 completed passesSean Kelly: 15 completed passesPittman: 11 completed passesBahamboula: 13 completed passesNouble: 9 completed passesAnderson: 2 completed passes12563172487199GeorgeDevlinFitzwaterObileyeLongridgeStephen KellySean KellyPittmanBahamboulaNoubleAndersonStarters until 56' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
AlebiosuArmstrong9
AlebiosuPower8
StokesJones8
PowerAlebiosu7
JonesArmstrong6

Livingston

FromToPasses
BahamboulaDevlin10
LongridgeFitzwater9
DevlinBahamboula8
FitzwaterLongridge8
ObileyeGeorge7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

8+3.14−2.614+6.73−2.511+4.62−4.14−3.23−3.46−1.513+6.64−1.54−0.34−1.26+0.63−2.33−1.01−1.91−3.14−0.23+0.54+3.00−0.73+1.02−0.81−0.53+2.30−0.51+0.40−0.66−6.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 13 matches

Livingston

3−2.56−1.07−5.84−4.96+1.39+1.01−5.43−1.95−1.117+9.25−0.82−3.42−0.61−3.77−0.27+2.94+1.14+2.12−1.32−2.32−0.21−0.51+0.22+0.80−2.80−1.20−0.20−0.60−0.64+3.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 12 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.020.010.010.030.020.030.030.01−0.010.010.030.02−0.010.030.01−0.030.13LessMore

Livingston

0.010.020.020.020.050.04−0.010.010.010.040.02−0.010.030.050.050.06−0.030.040.090.10LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.20AttackKilmarnock0.96 → 0.96Livingston1.01 → 1.04Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.28 → 1.33Livingston1.25 → 1.24

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six10%5%−5
11th19%24%+5
Bottom11%17%+6
Livingston
Top six48%61%+13
11th4%1%−3
Bottom1%<1%−1
Ross County
Bottom54%51%−3

From the forecast before the match (4 November 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockLivingston
Expected goals1.200.98
Win40%29%
Expected Points1.521.18
Clean sheet38%30%

Kilmarnock 40%Draw 30%Livingston 29%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 44%.

Livingston goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+5%2%6%2%8%8%4%1%3%3%2%1%1%12%10%13%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 4 November 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawLivingston win
Kilmarnock
Top six10%16%8%5%
11th19%14%20%24%
Bottom11%7%12%17%
Livingston
Top six48%39%48%61%
11th4%6%4%1%
Bottom1%2%1%<1%
Ross County
Bottom54%57%53%51%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–129 OctSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.38–0.39
  2. W1–022 OctRoss County (H)xG 1.10–0.70
  3. D0–015 OctSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.13–0.68
  4. D2–29 OctHearts (H)xG 1.68–1.17
  5. W2–15 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.28–0.87
  6. L1–41 OctAberdeen (A)xG 0.47–2.33

Livingston

  1. L0–330 OctCeltic (H)xG 0.24–2.47
  2. D1–122 OctRangers (A)xG 0.33–1.56
  3. W1–015 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.08–0.42
  4. L0–18 OctRoss County (H)xG 1.73–0.53
  5. L1–21 OctSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.45–0.77
  6. W1–017 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 0.83–0.11

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockLivingston
Position10th9th
Played1312
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠3–⁠75–⁠1–⁠6
Points12 (0.92 per game)16 (1.33 per game)
Expected Points per game1.161.20
Goals9–⁠209–⁠16
xG per game0.85–⁠1.170.88–⁠1.30
Home: points, xG per game1.83, 1.25–⁠1.191.71, 1.01–⁠1.03
Away: points, xG per game0.14, 0.51–⁠1.160.80, 0.70–⁠1.68
ManagerDerek McInnes (13)David Martindale (73)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.20AttackKilmarnock0.96, 9thLivingston1.01, 7thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.28, 7thLivingston1.25, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctKilmarnock attack: 0.96Livingston attack: 1.011.010.96LivingstonKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctKilmarnock defence: 1.28Livingston defence: 1.251.281.25

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockLivingston
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−35%−14%−36%−14%
Counter-attacks−58%−40%−100%−81%
Set pieces+13%+44%+8%+21%
Penalties−100%−49%−45%+120%
Headers−6%−15%−23%+47%
Left side−10%−6%−26%−29%
Centre−34%−7%−29%−13%
Right side−28%+8%−32%+19%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdLivingston concededLeft side−10%+19%Centre−34%−13%Right side−28%−29%Open play−35%−14%Counter-attacks−58%−81%Set pieces+13%+21%Headers−6%+47%

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−26%+8%Centre−29%−7%Right side−32%−6%Open play−36%−14%Counter-attacks−100%−40%Set pieces+8%+44%Headers−23%−15%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockLivingston

0.85xG0.88
1.17xG against1.30
46%Possession40%
11.0Shots9.7
13.2Shots against13.3
3.0Shots on target3.0
1.1Big chances1.6
16.3Touches in the opposition box23.7
334Passes281
67%Pass accuracy62%
5.1Corners3.7
46%Field tilt42%
33.6Final-third entries27.6
9.3Box entries9.1
14.2Passes per defensive action15.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level341.031.08
Ahead160.970.83
Behind400.651.39

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level381.101.13
Ahead350.680.87
Behind170.802.59

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.201–4
16–300.160.172–3
31–450.180.240–4
46–600.250.133–1
61–750.090.161–2
76–900.100.272–6

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.190.103–1
16–300.120.072–0
31–450.140.211–1
46–600.060.211–3
61–750.160.320–7
76–900.200.412–4

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTHemming 7Walker 6Wright 9Shaw 2Jones 1Taylor 12Dorsett 2Mayo 8Stokes 4Alebiosu 9Mayo 3Armstrong 1Polworth 4Alston 3Armstrong 1Power 13Donnelly 2McInroy 1Chrisene 5McInroy 3Jones 2McKenzie 8Chrisene 2Polworth 1Armstrong 5Jones 3Shaw 3Lafferty 6Cameron 3Shaw 23-4-2-1 in 4 of 13 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (4), 4-2-3-1 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 5-3-2 (2), 3-3-3-1 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

Livingston

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMAMAMSTGeorge 11Hamilton 1Devlin 12Obileye 12Fitzwater 6Sean Kelly 6Montano 9Holt 1Penrice 1Sean Kelly 6Omeonga 5Stephen Kelly 1Holt 11Bahamboula 2Pittman 8Goncalves 1Shinnie 6Omeonga 3Penrice 2Pittman 4Nouble 3Fitzwater 1Nouble 9Guthrie 34-3-2-1 in 5 of 12 starts

Formations: 4-3-2-1 (5), 4-3-3 (3), 3-5-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
17 September 2022Livingston1–0KilmarnockxG 0.83–0.11
27 January 2021Livingston2–0KilmarnockxG 1.10–0.59
26 December 2020Kilmarnock1–2LivingstonxG 1.22–0.68
17 October 2020Livingston1–3KilmarnockxG 1.53–2.27

4 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 1, Livingston won 3, and 0 were drawn. Goals 4–6 and xG 1.05–1.03 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong8765400.170.19
Shaw7617000.250.02
Jones6492000.070.14
Lafferty8576100.180.01

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nouble121,057320.180.10
Sean Kelly12985020.100.13
Montano9706300.070.16
Holt121,029020.050.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.