Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Celtic 2–0 Kilmarnock

Sunday 13 December 2020, 15:00 · Celtic Park · Round 17 · Half-time 0–0

Celtic Elyounoussi 57', Duffy 70'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

CelticKilmarnock
Goals20
xG1.830.79
Expected Points2.110.61

Celtic 61%Draw 28%Kilmarnock 11%

Most likely score 1–1, 23%. Final score 2–0, 7%.

Kilmarnock goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+4%10%7%1%7%1%4%12%2%5%1%23%21%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTKlimala on for Edouard and Christie on for Frimpong, 69'Laxalt on for Taylor and Rogic on for Turnbull, 81'Johnston on for Elyounoussi, 86'Mulumbu on for Pinnock and Burke on for Kiltie, 68'Brophy on for Kabamba, 79'Elyounoussi 57'Duffy 70'Celtic 1.83Kilmarnock 0.7900.511.520153045607590HTKlimala on for Edouard and Christie on for Frimpong, 69'Laxalt on for Taylor and Rogic on for Turnbull, 81'Johnston on for Elyounoussi, 86'Mulumbu on for Pinnock and Burke on for Kiltie, 68'Brophy on for Kabamba, 79'Elyounoussi 57'Duffy 70'1.830.79CelticKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

CelticKilmarnock

1.83 −0.32xG0.79 −0.22
1.05 −1.50xG on target0.95 −0.13
26 +8Shots2 −8
10 +2.9Shots on target1 −2.3
2 −1.0Big chances1 −0.1
35 +9Touches in the opposition box5 −12
64% −3Possession36% −8
519 −72Passes302 −50
83% −2Pass accuracy67% −2
73% +1Field tilt27% −17
55 −16Final-third entries21 −16
16 −0.9Box entries1 −8.1
12.3 +2Passes per defensive action17.9 +2
10 +3.8Corners3 −1.3
7 −6Tackles10 −2
7 −1.8Interceptions19 +8.5
11 −4Clearances17 −1
1 −0.3Saves7 +4.8
14 +2Fouls12 0
0 −1.1Offsides3 +0.9

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Celtic

Edouard 27', 0.30 xGDuffy 50', 0.30 xGEdouard 52', 0.17 xGChristie 78', 0.08 xGFrimpong 47', 0.07 xGDuffy 2', 0.06 xGEdouard 47', 0.06 xGDuffy 80', 0.06 xGChristie 90+4', 0.06 xGJullien 9', 0.05 xGEdouard 34', 0.05 xGTurnbull 64', 0.05 xGElyounoussi 72', 0.05 xGDuffy 78', 0.05 xGElyounoussi 10', 0.04 xGTurnbull 12', 0.04 xGTurnbull 45+2', 0.04 xGJohnston 88', 0.04 xGElyounoussi 12', 0.03 xGTurnbull 20', 0.03 xGElyounoussi 46', 0.03 xGTurnbull 54', 0.03 xGTurnbull 67', 0.03 xGDuffy 35', 0.02 xGElyounoussi 58', 0.05 xG, goalDuffy 70', 0.05 xG, goal13%0.23 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.23 xG, 0 goals54%0.98 xGCentral box: 9 shots, 0.98 xG, 1 goal3%0.05 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals24%0.44 xGEdge of the box: 10 shots, 0.44 xG, 1 goal7%0.13 xGFurther out: 4 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Kabamba 74', 0.74 xGBurke 90+2', 0.04 xG95%0.74 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.74 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGCentral box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals5%0.04 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

CelticKilmarnock

0.87 15 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.07 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.89 10 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.79 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
59 min (61%) · Celtic 1.36, Kilmarnock 0.00 xG
Celtic ahead
37 min (39%) · Celtic 0.47, Kilmarnock 0.79 xG

Line-ups

6535243012423142722HazardAjerJullienDuffyFrimpongSoroMcGregorTaylorTurnbullElyounoussiEdouardGoalGoal69'81'81'86'69'Celtic 3-4-2-1Neil Lennon23251731027671911RogersMcGowanBroadfootFindlayHaunstrupKiltieTshibolaPowerMcKenziePinnockKabambaYellow cardYellow card68'68'79'Kilmarnock 4-5-1Alex Dyer

Celtic substitutes

  • 69' Christie for Frimpong
  • 69' Klimala for Edouard
  • 81' Laxalt for Taylor
  • 81' Rogic for Turnbull
  • 86' Johnston for Elyounoussi

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 68' Burke for Kiltie
  • 68' Mulumbu for Pinnock
  • 79' Brophy for Kabamba

Players

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HazardGK900.000.0000.0110
AjerCB900.000.1910.2683
JullienCB900.050.0200.1276
DuffyCB9010.540.0100.2395
FrimpongRWB690.070.0210.0681
SoroCM900.000.0210.0783
McGregorCM900.000.4440.33163
TaylorLWB8110.000.0930.2181
TurnbullAM8110.210.6380.1961
ElyounoussiAM8610.200.0710.0222
EdouardST690.580.0230.0200
ChristieMF210.140.0100.0210
KlimalaFW210.000.0100.0100
LaxaltMF90.000.0000.0110
RogicFW90.000.0200.0100
JohnstonFW40.040.0100.0210

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RogersGK900.000.0100.0551
McGowanRB900.000.0100.0474
BroadfootCB900.000.0000.0109
FindlayCB900.000.0400.07710
HaunstrupLB900.000.0000.0207
KiltieRM680.000.000−0.0211
TshibolaCM900.000.010−0.0313
Power CM900.000.0100.03511
McKenzieCM900.000.2310.0213
PinnockLM680.000.0200.0110
Kabamba ST790.740.000−0.0112
BurkeMF220.040.0000.0100
MulumbuMF220.000.0000.0112
BrophyFW110.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Celtic

Jullien and Turnbull: 6 passesAjer and McGregor: 6 passesDuffy and Ajer: 7 passesDuffy and Elyounoussi: 7 passesMcGregor and Elyounoussi: 7 passesDuffy and Turnbull: 8 passesMcGregor and Edouard: 8 passesElyounoussi and Turnbull: 8 passesSoro and Turnbull: 10 passesTurnbull and Edouard: 10 passesJullien and McGregor: 11 passesAjer and Soro: 11 passesFrimpong and Soro: 11 passesJullien and Soro: 14 passesAjer and Frimpong: 14 passesDuffy and Taylor: 15 passesTaylor and Elyounoussi: 15 passesMcGregor and Soro: 15 passesAjer and Turnbull: 16 passesMcGregor and Turnbull: 18 passesJullien and Ajer: 21 passesJullien and Duffy: 22 passesTaylor and McGregor: 25 passesDuffy and McGregor: 28 passesHazard: 6 completed passesJullien: 48 completed passesDuffy: 52 completed passesAjer: 47 completed passesFrimpong: 19 completed passesTaylor: 32 completed passesMcGregor: 66 completed passesSoro: 39 completed passesElyounoussi: 15 completed passesTurnbull: 42 completed passesEdouard: 11 completed passes6524353034212271422HazardJullienDuffyAjerFrimpongTaylorMcGregorSoroElyounoussiTurnbullEdouardStarters until 69' · lines join pairs with 6+ passes

Kilmarnock

McGowan and McKenzie: 3 passesHaunstrup and McKenzie: 3 passesKiltie and Power: 3 passesPower and Pinnock: 3 passesBroadfoot and Power: 4 passesKiltie and McKenzie: 4 passesRogers and McGowan: 5 passesMcGowan and Kiltie: 5 passesMcGowan and Pinnock: 5 passesMcGowan and Kabamba: 5 passesFindlay and Power: 5 passesBroadfoot and Tshibola: 5 passesFindlay and Tshibola: 6 passesHaunstrup and Tshibola: 6 passesHaunstrup and Pinnock: 6 passesPower and Tshibola: 6 passesMcGowan and Power: 8 passesFindlay and Haunstrup: 8 passesHaunstrup and Power: 11 passesMcGowan and Tshibola: 18 passesRogers: 6 completed passesMcGowan: 29 completed passesFindlay: 13 completed passesBroadfoot: 9 completed passesHaunstrup: 19 completed passesKiltie: 9 completed passesPower: 24 completed passesTshibola: 21 completed passesMcKenzie: 8 completed passesPinnock: 9 completed passesKabamba: 2 completed passes23217531062771911RogersMcGowanFindlayBroadfootHaunstrupKiltiePowerTshibolaMcKenziePinnockKabambaStarters until 68' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Celtic

FromToPasses
McGregorTaylor18
SoroMcGregor14
McGregorTurnbull14
McGregorDuffy14
DuffyMcGregor14

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
McGowanTshibola13
HaunstrupPower8
TshibolaMcGowan7
PowerFindlay6
PowerHaunstrup6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Celtic

3−0.91−3.22−3.07−0.54−2.17+2.910+4.011+2.99+4.03−2.51−1.59+3.02−1.53−0.71−2.14+0.16+2.11−0.71−1.25+3.43+0.61−1.70−0.40−0.60−0.90−0.61+0.21−3.85−4.61−3.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 14 matches

Kilmarnock

10+7.08+2.512−1.414+6.32−4.38+0.870.08+1.390.09+0.88+4.77+2.11−2.92−2.55+0.12−1.12−1.23+0.64+1.53−0.72+0.30−1.71−0.42+1.120.00−0.70−0.20−1.10−0.40−0.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 15 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Celtic

0.010.010.030.010.050.010.060.060.060.060.070.060.050.040.060.010.130.120.030.07−0.010.060.110.040.38LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.030.020.010.010.010.020.020.020.030.02−0.010.02−0.03−0.01−0.040.030.04LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.24AttackCeltic2.17 → 2.13Kilmarnock1.00 → 1.00Defence (lower is better)Celtic0.88 → 0.87Kilmarnock1.31 → 1.28

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Celtic
Title8%9%+1
Kilmarnock
Top six37%34%−3
11th6%7%+1
Bottom1%2%+1
St. Johnstone
Top six42%43%+1
11th3%3%0
Rangers
Title92%91%−1

From the forecast before the match (13 December 2020): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

CelticKilmarnock
Expected goals2.480.72
Win76%8%
Expected Points2.430.41
Clean sheet49%8%

Celtic 76%Draw 16%Kilmarnock 8%

Most likely score 2–0, 13%. Both sides score 47%.

Kilmarnock goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+4%3%1%8%3%3%7%3%6%5%2%3%2%2%1%10%13%9%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 13 December 2020: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowCeltic winDrawKilmarnock win
Celtic
Title8%9%5%3%
Kilmarnock
Top six37%34%44%54%
11th6%7%4%3%
Bottom1%2%1%1%
St. Johnstone
Top six42%43%40%36%
11th3%3%4%3%
Rangers
Title92%91%95%97%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Celtic

  1. D1–16 DecSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.73–1.30
  2. D2–221 NovHibernian (A)xG 1.91–1.54
  3. W4–18 NovMotherwell (A)xG 2.84–1.66
  4. D3–325 OctAberdeen (A)xG 2.04–2.76
  5. L0–217 OctRangers (H)xG 0.55–1.50
  6. W2–04 OctSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.71–0.63

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–15 DecHamilton Academical (A)xG 0.85–1.56
  2. W3–121 NovRoss County (H)xG 2.12–1.87
  3. L0–16 NovSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.46–0.61
  4. L0–11 NovRangers (H)xG 0.50–2.80
  5. L0–124 OctHibernian (H)xG 0.97–1.50
  6. W3–117 OctLivingston (A)xG 2.27–1.53

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

CelticKilmarnock
Position3rd7th
Played1415
Won, drawn, lost9–⁠4–⁠15–⁠2–⁠8
Points31 (2.21 per game)17 (1.13 per game)
Expected Points per game1.951.03
Goals35–⁠1418–⁠17
xG per game2.15–⁠1.091.01–⁠1.55
Home: points, xG per game2.17, 2.06–⁠0.911.43, 1.22–⁠1.60
Away: points, xG per game2.25, 2.22–⁠1.230.88, 0.82–⁠1.51
ManagerNeil Lennon (14)Alex Dyer (15)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.24AttackCeltic2.17, 2ndKilmarnock1.00, 8thDefence (lower is better)Celtic0.88, 2ndKilmarnock1.31, 8th

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0SepOctNovDecCeltic attack: 2.17Kilmarnock attack: 1.002.171.00KilmarnockCelticDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0SepOctNovDecCeltic defence: 0.88Kilmarnock defence: 1.311.310.88

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

CelticKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+68%−39%−32%+11%
Counter-attacks+363%−21%−87%−74%
Set pieces+25%−11%−9%+32%
Penalties+34%+67%−6%+25%
Headers−5%−42%−11%−1%
Left side+76%−23%−7%+23%
Centre+63%−23%−38%+13%
Right side+58%−51%−27%+7%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+76%+7%Centre+63%+13%Right side+58%+23%Open play+68%+11%Counter-attacks+363%−74%Set pieces+25%+32%Headers−5%−1%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdCeltic concededLeft side−7%−51%Centre−38%−23%Right side−27%−23%Open play−32%−39%Counter-attacks−87%−21%Set pieces−9%−11%Headers−11%−42%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

CelticKilmarnock

2.15xG1.01
1.09xG against1.55
67%Possession44%
17.9Shots10.1
8.5Shots against15.2
7.1Shots on target3.3
3.0Big chances1.1
25.9Touches in the opposition box16.6
592Passes352
86%Pass accuracy70%
6.2Corners4.3
72%Field tilt44%
70.5Final-third entries37.1
16.9Box entries9.1
10.1Passes per defensive action15.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level412.001.24
Ahead372.441.03
Behind121.750.76

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level401.101.44
Ahead200.882.12
Behind290.981.30

xG by period

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.250.184–2
16–300.310.196–2
31–450.360.104–2
46–600.370.265–3
61–750.390.173–2
76–900.480.2013–3

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.202–4
16–300.200.244–4
31–450.190.183–2
46–600.160.193–1
61–750.200.343–2
76–900.160.393–4

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBarkas 10Bain 4Frimpong 8Elhamed 3Bitton 1Jullien 6Duffy 6Bitton 3Ajer 12Welsh 1Taylor 5Laxalt 4Edouard 2Brown 7Christie 3Frimpong 1McGregor 14Ntcham 2Forrest 1Christie 4Frimpong 3Forrest 3Ntcham 4Brown 3Rogic 3Elyounoussi 5Taylor 3Edouard 2Ajeti 4Edouard 3Elyounoussi 34-2-3-1 in 7 of 14 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (7), 3-5-2 (4), 3-5-1-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWRogers 14Eastwood 1Millen 9McGowan 3Rossi 3Broadfoot 15Findlay 12Dikamona 3Waters 13Haunstrup 2Power 11Kabamba 4McKenzie 1Dicker 13Kiltie 1Tshibola 14Pinnock 1Burke 13Brophy 1McKenzie 1Kabamba 10Brophy 5Kiltie 8Pinnock 3McKenzie 24-3-3 in 9 of 15 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (9), 4-4-2 (4), 4-2-3-1 (2)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
9 August 2020Kilmarnock1–1CelticxG 1.06–0.74

1 league meeting since 2020/21: Celtic won 0, Kilmarnock won 0, and 1 was a draw. Goals 1–1 and xG 0.74–1.06 per game.

Key players

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Edouard7667510.850.22
Elyounoussi10744510.580.10
Christie11986350.360.31
Forrest5484210.280.23

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Burke131,078520.240.26
Brophy6463200.410.03
Kabamba141,236500.270.02
Kiltie9761220.180.07

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.