Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Hibernian 2–3 Livingston

Saturday 26 August 2023, 15:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 3 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Craig Napier · Attendance 14,932

Hibernian Boyle 61', Campbell 86'

Livingston Obita 8' (og), Anderson 63', Sangare 75'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianLivingston
Goals23
xG0.811.68
Expected Points0.602.14

Hibernian 11%Draw 26%Livingston 62%

Most likely score 1–1, 18%. Final score 2–3, 2%.

Livingston goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+2%5%1%5%6%6%2%1%1%17%16%18%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTBoruc on for Marshall, 46'Vente on for Doidge, Campbell on for Delferriere, and Le Fondre on for Harbottle, 65'Anderson on for Guthrie, 59'Sangare on for Brandon, 66'Boyes on for Nouble, 90+4'Boyle 61'Campbell 86'Obita 8' (og)Anderson 63'Sangare 75'Livingston 1.68Hibernian 0.8100.511.520153045607590HTBoruc on for Marshall, 46'Vente on for Doidge, Campbell on for Delferriere, and Le Fondre on for Harbottle, 65'Anderson on for Guthrie, 59'Sangare on for Brandon, 66'Boyes on for Nouble, 90+4'Boyle 61'Campbell 86'Obita 8' (og)Anderson 63'Sangare 75'1.680.81HibernianLivingston

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianLivingston

0.81 −0.33xG1.68 +1.24
0.72 −0.70xG on target1.45 +0.90
13 +4.0Shots8 −1.0
3 −0.5Shots on target4 +2.0
2 0.0Big chances2 +1.5
66% +11Possession34% −6
467 +70Passes249 −35
83% +14Pass accuracy66% +7
81% +34Field tilt19% −18
58 +28Final-third entries17 −2
16 +8.0Box entries8 +2.0
10.5 −1Passes per defensive action13.4 +3
9 +7.0Corners3 −2.5
15 +4Tackles25 0
5 −4.5Interceptions13 −1.0
6 −8Clearances36 +14
2 +1.0Saves1 −1.5
12 −3Fouls10 −6
2 +1.5Offsides1 0.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Delferriere 47', 0.08 xGDoidge 56', 0.08 xGDelferriere 39', 0.07 xGYouan 60', 0.05 xGDoidge 17', 0.03 xGDelferriere 55', 0.03 xGBoyle 41', 0.02 xGCampbell 71', 0.02 xGObita 21', 0.01 xGYouan 21', 0.01 xGYouan 90+5', 0.01 xGBoyle 61', 0.24 xG, goalCampbell 86', 0.15 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals72%0.58 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.58 xG, 2 goals6%0.05 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals20%0.16 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.16 xG, 0 goals2%0.02 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Livingston

Nouble 52', 0.34 xGObileye 2', 0.10 xGNouble 84', 0.10 xGObileye 42', 0.06 xGAnderson 90+5', 0.06 xGAnderson 85', 0.04 xGAnderson 63', 0.91 xG, goalSangare 75', 0.06 xG, goal54%0.91 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.91 xG, 1 goal30%0.50 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.50 xG, 0 goals10%0.16 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.16 xG, 0 goals6%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianLivingston

0.63 11 shots, 1 goalOpen play1.31 3 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.16 2 shots, 1 goal
0.17 2 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.20 3 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
10 min (11%) · Hibernian 0.00, Livingston 1.01 xG
Livingston ahead
85 min (89%) · Hibernian 0.81, Livingston 0.66 xG

Line-ups

1265332128141110237MarshallHarbottleFishBushiriObitaDelferriereJeggoNewellBoyleDoidgeYouanOwn goalYellow cardGoalYellow card46'65'65'65'Hibernian 4-3-3Lee Johnson123651218222981928GeorgePerezObileyeDevlinBrandonHoltShinniePenricePittmanNoubleGuthrieYellow cardYellow cardYellow card66'90+4'59'Livingston 3-4-2-1David Martindale

Hibernian substitutes

  • 46' Boruc for Marshall
  • 65' Le Fondre for Harbottle
  • 65' Vente for Doidge
  • 65' Campbell for Delferriere · goal 86'

Livingston substitutes

  • 59' Anderson for Guthrie · goal 63'
  • 66' Sangare for Brandon · goal 75', yellow card 77'
  • 90+4' Boyes for Nouble

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarshallGK460.000.0000.0000
HarbottleRB650.000.0200.0151
FishCB900.000.0100.0869
BushiriCB900.000.0100.0873
ObitaLB900.010.0300.1492
DelferriereCM650.180.1130.1021
JeggoCM900.000.0300.11105
Newell CM900.000.0410.1253
BoyleRW9010.260.1100.2191
Doidge ST6510.110.0110.0330
YouanLW900.070.1820.31162
BorucGK440.000.0000.0000
Le FondreFW250.000.000−0.0300
VenteFW250.000.0100.0100
CampbellMF2510.170.0000.0021

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
George GK900.000.0310.0641
PerezCB900.000.0010.03221
ObileyeCB900.170.0100.02210
DevlinCB900.000.0900.03212
Brandon RWB660.000.0100.0337
HoltCM900.000.0000.0028
ShinnieCM900.000.0410.0456
PenriceLWB9010.000.3920.2135
PittmanAM900.000.0100.0213
NoubleAM9010.430.0210.0864
Guthrie ST590.000.010−0.0204
AndersonFW3111.010.0000.0010
Sangare DF2410.060.0000.0411
BoyesDF00.000.000––0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Harbottle and Bushiri: 4 passesBushiri and Delferriere: 4 passesFish and Obita: 4 passesObita and Delferriere: 4 passesFish and Delferriere: 5 passesDelferriere and Youan: 5 passesMarshall and Obita: 6 passesHarbottle and Jeggo: 6 passesBushiri and Newell: 6 passesFish and Newell: 6 passesJeggo and Newell: 6 passesHarbottle and Delferriere: 7 passesJeggo and Youan: 7 passesObita and Newell: 9 passesJeggo and Delferriere: 9 passesNewell and Youan: 9 passesHarbottle and Newell: 10 passesObita and Jeggo: 11 passesBushiri and Fish: 15 passesBushiri and Obita: 18 passesHarbottle and Fish: 20 passesObita and Youan: 26 passesMarshall: 8 completed passesHarbottle: 29 completed passesBushiri: 31 completed passesFish: 31 completed passesObita: 42 completed passesJeggo: 27 completed passesDelferriere: 23 completed passesNewell: 22 completed passesBoyle: 4 completed passesDoidge: 2 completed passesYouan: 20 completed passes1263352114281110237MarshallHarbottleBushiriFishObitaJeggoDelferriereNewellBoyleDoidgeYouanStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Livingston

George and Obileye: 3 passesObileye and Perez: 3 passesDevlin and Nouble: 3 passesPerez and Brandon: 3 passesBrandon and Pittman: 3 passesPittman and Guthrie: 3 passesGeorge and Guthrie: 4 passesBrandon and Holt: 4 passesBrandon and Shinnie: 4 passesBrandon and Guthrie: 4 passesObileye and Devlin: 5 passesObileye and Shinnie: 5 passesPerez and Shinnie: 5 passesHolt and Pittman: 5 passesDevlin and Penrice: 6 passesPenrice and Shinnie: 6 passesGeorge and Devlin: 7 passesPenrice and Nouble: 7 passesDevlin and Holt: 8 passesDevlin and Shinnie: 9 passesGeorge: 10 completed passesObileye: 13 completed passesDevlin: 22 completed passesPerez: 10 completed passesBrandon: 12 completed passesPenrice: 13 completed passesHolt: 15 completed passesShinnie: 17 completed passesNouble: 6 completed passesPittman: 5 completed passesGuthrie: 6 completed passes165231229182219828GeorgeObileyeDevlinPerezBrandonPenriceHoltShinnieNoublePittmanGuthrieStarters until 59' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
ObitaYouan29
BushiriObita18
FishHarbottle16
FishBushiri13
YouanObita12

Livingston

FromToPasses
DevlinShinnie7
ShinnieDevlin6
ShinniePerez6
NoublePenrice5
DevlinGeorge5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

6−3.58+6.05−4.02−5.54+2.54−3.03−1.04−5.58+1.53+0.56+1.55−0.59+2.55+2.02−1.00−4.03−3.57+1.020.03+2.51−0.51−2.00−5.52+1.52+2.00−0.51+1.03+2.03−6.51−7.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 2 matches

Livingston

11+2.510+1.028+12.013+5.09+4.58−1.017+3.55−0.53−3.510+2.010+2.06+0.55+2.07+4.56−4.04−4.08+3.01+0.52−1.51−4.00−4.01−0.50−1.01−2.01−3.51+1.00−0.51+0.500.000.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 2 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

0.010.010.010.020.020.020.040.020.040.040.030.040.030.110.040.030.070.080.080.020.020.09−0.01−0.060.080.130.16LessMore

Livingston

0.060.010.010.010.010.010.020.010.010.09−0.01−0.010.020.030.030.010.01−0.010.21LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.31AttackHibernian1.28 → 1.26Livingston0.97 → 1.01Defence (lower is better)Hibernian1.25 → 1.29Livingston1.51 → 1.48

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hibernian
Top six58%46%−12
11th4%7%+3
Bottom2%4%+2
Livingston
Top six11%20%+9
11th21%17%−4
Bottom25%18%−7

From the forecast before the match (26 August 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianLivingston
Expected goals1.790.83
Win60%16%
Expected Points2.030.73
Clean sheet44%17%

Hibernian 60%Draw 24%Livingston 16%

Most likely score 1–0, 13%. Both sides score 47%.

Livingston goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+8%5%2%4%1%4%1%7%6%2%3%3%1%1%13%11%12%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 26 August 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawLivingston win
Hibernian
Top six58%64%53%46%
11th4%3%5%7%
Bottom2%1%3%4%
Livingston
Top six11%8%13%20%
11th21%22%20%17%
Bottom25%28%23%18%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. L1–213 AugMotherwell (A)xG 0.86–0.60
  2. L2–36 AugSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.41–1.55
  3. D1–127 MayHearts (A)xG 1.50–0.11
  4. W4–224 MayCeltic (H)xG 2.04–2.37
  5. L1–321 MayRangers (H)xG 1.19–1.91
  6. D0–013 MayAberdeen (A)xG 1.95–0.30

Livingston

  1. L0–412 AugRangers (A)xG 0.12–2.44
  2. D0–05 AugAberdeen (H)xG 0.76–0.70
  3. L0–228 MaySt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.99–2.46
  4. D1–124 MayMotherwell (H)xG 0.70–0.47
  5. W2–120 MayDundee United (H)xG 1.06–1.17
  6. L0–213 MayKilmarnock (A)xG 0.32–1.75

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianLivingston
Position11th10th
Played22
Won, drawn, lost0–⁠0–⁠20–⁠1–⁠1
Points0 (0.00 per game)1 (0.50 per game)
Expected Points per game1.440.73
Goals3–⁠50–⁠4
xG per game1.14–⁠1.070.44–⁠1.57
Home: points, xG per game0.00, 1.41–⁠1.551.00, 0.76–⁠0.70
Away: points, xG per game0.00, 0.86–⁠0.600.00, 0.12–⁠2.44
ManagerLee Johnson (40)David Martindale (101)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.31AttackHibernian1.28, 4thLivingston0.97, 12thDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.25, 3rdLivingston1.51, 11th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.04 Aug13 AugHibernian attack: 1.28Livingston attack: 0.971.280.97LivingstonHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.04 Aug13 AugHibernian defence: 1.25Livingston defence: 1.511.511.25

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianLivingston
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−14%−28%−50%+14%
Counter-attacks+30%+45%−86%+6%
Set pieces−22%−30%−17%+18%
Penalties+61%+113%−30%−4%
Headers−14%−25%−33%+16%
Left side−28%−23%−36%+52%
Centre−25%−32%−49%average
Right side+13%+1%−40%+8%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdLivingston concededLeft side−28%+8%Centre−25%averageRight side+13%+52%Open play−14%+14%Counter-attacks+30%+6%Set pieces−22%+18%Headers−14%+16%

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdHibernian concededLeft side−36%+1%Centre−49%−32%Right side−40%−23%Open play−50%−28%Counter-attacks−86%+45%Set pieces−17%−30%Headers−33%−25%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianLivingston

1.14xG0.44
1.07xG against1.57
55%Possession40%
9.0Shots9.0
9.0Shots against16.5
3.5Shots on target2.0
2.0Big chances0.5
397Passes284
69%Pass accuracy59%
2.0Corners5.5
47%Field tilt37%
30.5Final-third entries19.0
8.0Box entries6.0
11.2Passes per defensive action10.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level440.131.52
Ahead0––
Behind462.080.66

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level500.680.87
Ahead0––
Behind400.132.44

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.030.420–1
16–300.020.180–1
31–450.010.100–0
46–600.140.060–0
61–750.130.131–1
76–900.790.182–2

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.040.200–1
16–300.030.070–0
31–450.010.170–0
46–600.060.330–0
61–750.180.190–0
76–900.110.610–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTMarshall 2Fish 2Delferriere 1Hanlon 2Stevenson 1Miller 1Boyle 1Jeggo 1Doyle-Hay… 1Doyle-HayesLevitt 1Campbell 1Newell 2Obita 1Youan 1Doidge 2Stevenson 1Vente 13-5-2 in 1 of 2 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1)

Livingston

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTGeorge 2Perez 2Obileye 2Devlin 2Brandon 2Holt 2Sangare 2Shinnie 2Montano 2Kelly 1Guthrie 1Nouble 23-5-2 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
4 March 2023Livingston1–4HibernianxG 0.43–1.36
24 December 2022Hibernian4–0LivingstonxG 2.06–2.06
13 August 2022Livingston2–1HibernianxG 1.45–1.86
30 April 2022Livingston1–0HibernianxG 1.32–1.12
29 January 2022Hibernian2–3LivingstonxG 1.32–1.88
8 December 2021Livingston1–0HibernianxG 1.23–1.95

11 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 5, Livingston won 5, and 1 was a draw. Goals 20–14 and xG 1.64–1.31 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Youan322,720980.260.17
Boyle111,043510.300.11
Henderson111,177130.190.10
Campbell292,592840.180.07

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Anderson211,885620.220.08
Bradley12945120.120.14
Nouble312,776720.150.07
Guthrie7722000.200.02

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes. Until a side has played six matches, last season's minutes at the club count too.