Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Hibernian 4–0 Livingston

Saturday 24 December 2022, 14:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 18 · Half-time 3–0 · Referee Craig Napier · Attendance 15,260

Hibernian Nisbet 33', Cadden 35', Magennis 40', 50'

Livingston Holt sent off 15'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianLivingston
Goals40
xG2.062.06
Non-penalty xG2.060.49
Expected Points1.311.41

Hibernian 35%Draw 27%Livingston 38%

Most likely score 2–2, 16%. Final score 4–0, <1%.

Livingston goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+2%5%2%6%6%1%6%7%1%4%10%5%2%4%2%1%12%16%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTHolt (Livingston), red card 15'Henderson on for Bushiri and Fish on for Hanlon, 61'Melkersen on for Nisbet, 70'McKirdy on for Magennis, 71'Cabraja on for Stevenson, 77'Longridge on for Bahamboula, 28'Omeonga on for Stephen Kelly, 46'Boyes on for Montano, 65'Goncalves on for Anderson and Penrice on for Devlin, 74'Nisbet 33'Cadden 35'Magennis 40'Magennis 50'Hibernian 2.06Livingston 2.0601230153045607590HTHolt (Livingston), red card 15'Henderson on for Bushiri and Fish on for Hanlon, 61'Melkersen on for Nisbet, 70'McKirdy on for Magennis, 71'Cabraja on for Stevenson, 77'Longridge on for Bahamboula, 28'Omeonga on for Stephen Kelly, 46'Boyes on for Montano, 65'Goncalves on for Anderson and Penrice on for Devlin, 74'Nisbet 33'Cadden 35'Magennis 40'Magennis 50'2.062.06HibernianLivingston

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianLivingston

2.06 +0.83xG2.06 +1.08
2.06Non-penalty xG0.49
3.02 +2.08xG on target2.63 +1.65
27 +10.3Shots8 −1.7
11 +6.2Shots on target3 −0.2
3 +1.7Big chances3 +1.6
36 +12Touches in the opposition box7 −13
78% +21Possession22% −16
558 +145Passes167 −104
86% +8Pass accuracy55% −7
96% +34Field tilt4% −35
75 +27Final-third entries11 −15
20 +6.1Box entries1 −7.2
7.0 −4Passes per defensive action22.9 +7
9 +2.4Corners1 −2.9
19 +4Tackles11 −3
1 −6.5Interceptions11 0.0
9 −10Clearances35 +9
3 +1.2Saves7 +4.1
13 0Fouls14 +1
4 +2.2Offsides0 −1.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Nisbet 3', 0.30 xGYouan 76', 0.21 xGMagennis 13', 0.15 xGCampbell 3', 0.08 xGYouan 13', 0.06 xGCadden 22', 0.06 xGNisbet 25', 0.06 xGPorteous 33', 0.06 xGMcKirdy 80', 0.06 xGPorteous 22', 0.04 xGYouan 53', 0.04 xGCampbell 38', 0.03 xGNisbet 45+5', 0.03 xGMagennis 53', 0.03 xGYouan 66', 0.03 xGMcKirdy 75', 0.03 xGPorteous 23', 0.02 xGNewell 39', 0.02 xGYouan 45+4', 0.02 xGCadden 76', 0.02 xGCabraja 90+4', 0.02 xGYouan 20', 0.01 xGMagennis 56', 0.01 xGMagennis 40', 0.37 xG, goalNisbet 33', 0.18 xG, goalMagennis 50', 0.08 xG, goalCadden 35', 0.03 xG, goal18%0.37 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.37 xG, 1 goal40%0.83 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.83 xG, 2 goals24%0.50 xGWide in the box: 8 shots, 0.50 xG, 1 goal16%0.33 xGEdge of the box: 10 shots, 0.33 xG, 0 goals1%0.03 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Livingston

Goncalves 84', 0.27 xGBahamboula 13', 0.08 xGShinnie 84', 0.06 xGStephen Kelly 12', 0.04 xGAnderson 31', 0.02 xGShinnie 88', 0.02 xG55%0.27 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.27 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGCentral box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals16%0.08 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals29%0.14 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianLivingston

1.56 18 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.14 3 shots, 0 goals
0.51 9 shots, 2 goalsSet pieces0.34 3 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties1.58 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
33 min (33%) · Hibernian 1.03, Livingston 0.14 xG
Hibernian ahead
66 min (67%) · Hibernian 1.03, Livingston 1.92 xG

Line-ups

112334165117322315MarshallCaddenBushiriHanlonStevensonPorteousNewellMagennisCampbellYouanNisbetGoalYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoalGoal61'61'77'71'70'Hibernian 4-2-3-1Lee Johnson3126511188227917KonovalovDevlinObileyeFitzwaterMontanoHoltPittmanShinnieBahamboulaAndersonStephen KellyYellow cardSent offYellow cardYellow card74'65'28'74'46'Livingston 4-3-3David Martindale

Hibernian substitutes

  • 61' Fish for Hanlon
  • 61' Henderson for Bushiri
  • 70' Melkersen for Nisbet
  • 71' McKirdy for Magennis
  • 77' Cabraja for Stevenson

Livingston substitutes

  • 28' Longridge for Bahamboula · yellow card 46'
  • 46' Omeonga for Stephen Kelly
  • 65' Boyes for Montano
  • 74' Penrice for Devlin
  • 74' Goncalves for Anderson · penalty missed 84'

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarshallGK900.000.0000.0100
CaddenRB9010.110.0400.0991
BushiriCB610.000.0000.0442
HanlonCB610.000.0000.0534
StevensonLB770.000.0620.17111
Porteous DM900.120.0510.0985
Newell DM900.020.1750.1575
MagennisRW7120.650.041−0.0312
CampbellAM900.110.031−0.0232
YouanLW9020.370.3650.47258
NisbetST70110.570.0110.0830
FishDF290.000.0010.0210
HendersonMF290.000.0410.0330
MelkersenFW200.000.0000.0000
McKirdyFW190.080.0200.0530
CabrajaDF130.020.0000.0301

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KonovalovGK900.000.0000.0110
Devlin RB740.000.0000.02111
ObileyeCB900.000.0400.0737
FitzwaterCB900.790.0010.01210
MontanoLB650.000.0000.0128
Holt CM150.000.0000.0002
Pittman CM900.000.0100.0113
Shinnie CM900.080.0000.0024
BahamboulaRW280.080.0200.0110
AndersonST740.020.0010.0402
Stephen KellyLW460.040.0010.0003
Longridge DF620.000.0000.0007
OmeongaMF440.000.0000.0000
BoyesDF250.000.0000.0005
PenriceDF160.000.0000.0113
GoncalvesFW161.060.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Marshall and Bushiri: 5 passesCadden and Stevenson: 5 passesBushiri and Stevenson: 5 passesHanlon and Porteous: 5 passesStevenson and Porteous: 5 passesNewell and Porteous: 5 passesStevenson and Campbell: 6 passesPorteous and Magennis: 6 passesPorteous and Youan: 6 passesCampbell and Youan: 6 passesYouan and Nisbet: 7 passesHanlon and Youan: 8 passesBushiri and Porteous: 12 passesHanlon and Stevenson: 12 passesCadden and Newell: 13 passesHanlon and Newell: 14 passesNewell and Youan: 18 passesStevenson and Newell: 19 passesCadden and Bushiri: 21 passesCadden and Porteous: 21 passesBushiri and Hanlon: 21 passesCadden and Magennis: 27 passesStevenson and Youan: 32 passesMarshall: 4 completed passesCadden: 43 completed passesBushiri: 41 completed passesHanlon: 32 completed passesStevenson: 47 completed passesNewell: 44 completed passesPorteous: 36 completed passesMagennis: 24 completed passesCampbell: 14 completed passesYouan: 41 completed passesNisbet: 8 completed passes112334161157322315MarshallCaddenBushiriHanlonStevensonNewellPorteousMagennisCampbellYouanNisbetStarters until 61' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
StevensonYouan25
CaddenMagennis17
YouanStevenson16
StevensonNewell15
BushiriCadden14

Livingston

FromToPasses
MontanoFitzwater5
KonovalovFitzwater4
BahamboulaDevlin3
FitzwaterObileye3
Stephen KellyObileye3

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

0−3.91−4.710+3.08+0.81−4.04−2.12−2.28+2.85−2.94−1.15−0.22−0.611+5.77−0.87+3.95+0.91−1.610+5.71−3.82−0.22−0.20−0.93+1.04+1.52+1.31+0.12+0.90−0.50−1.04−6.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 17 matches

Livingston

7+1.214+5.622+6.810+1.74−1.07−0.96−0.32−3.18+1.611+3.11−4.74−0.57+4.63−1.27−0.53−0.80−3.02−0.44+1.23−0.90−2.30−1.70−1.02+0.91−1.510.00−0.10−0.60−0.40−0.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 16 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

0.010.020.010.020.010.020.050.030.050.050.070.030.030.100.090.01−0.01−0.010.13−0.02−0.040.250.31LessMore

Livingston

0.010.010.010.030.03−0.010.020.01−0.01−0.010.010.06LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.23AttackHibernian1.15 → 1.17Livingston1.03 → 1.04Defence (lower is better)Hibernian1.15 → 1.15Livingston1.31 → 1.33

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hibernian
Top six48%58%+10
11th2%1%−1
Bottom1%<1%−1
Livingston
Top six66%58%−8
11th1%2%+1

From the forecast before the match (24 December 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianLivingston
Expected goals1.480.87
Win51%22%
Expected Points1.800.92
Clean sheet42%23%

Hibernian 51%Draw 28%Livingston 22%

Most likely score 1–0, 14%. Both sides score 45%.

Livingston goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+8%4%1%5%2%9%4%1%5%4%2%2%2%10%14%13%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 24 December 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawLivingston win
Hibernian
Top six48%58%43%31%
11th2%1%2%3%
Bottom1%<1%1%1%
Livingston
Top six66%58%70%80%
11th1%2%1%1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. L2–315 DecRangers (A)xG 0.62–2.31
  2. L0–112 NovKilmarnock (A)xG 0.85–0.96
  3. L0–28 NovRoss County (H)xG 1.14–0.70
  4. L1–44 NovAberdeen (A)xG 1.50–1.69
  5. W3–029 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.87–0.82
  6. L1–221 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.88–0.85

Livingston

  1. L1–221 DecCeltic (A)xG 0.28–1.96
  2. D1–112 NovHearts (A)xG 1.84–2.95
  3. W2–18 NovAberdeen (H)xG 1.29–3.34
  4. W3–24 NovKilmarnock (A)xG 1.68–1.04
  5. L0–330 OctCeltic (H)xG 0.24–2.47
  6. D1–122 OctRangers (A)xG 0.33–1.56

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianLivingston
Position8th7th
Played1716
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠2–⁠97–⁠2–⁠7
Points20 (1.18 per game)23 (1.44 per game)
Expected Points per game1.491.10
Goals20–⁠2616–⁠22
xG per game1.23–⁠1.070.98–⁠1.56
Home: points, xG per game1.75, 1.38–⁠0.791.88, 1.05–⁠1.32
Away: points, xG per game0.67, 1.09–⁠1.321.00, 0.91–⁠1.79
ManagerLee Johnson (17)David Martindale (77)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.23AttackHibernian1.15, 5thLivingston1.03, 7thDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.15, 3rdLivingston1.31, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecHibernian attack: 1.15Livingston attack: 1.031.151.03LivingstonHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecHibernian defence: 1.15Livingston defence: 1.311.311.15

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianLivingston
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−8%−28%−39%+7%
Counter-attacks+17%+111%−100%−69%
Set pieces+20%−9%+3%+36%
Penalties−39%−9%+29%+93%
Headers+6%−26%−23%+52%
Left side+16%−28%−15%−7%
Centre−25%−12%−39%+8%
Right side+21%−19%−36%+34%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdLivingston concededLeft side+16%+34%Centre−25%+8%Right side+21%−7%Open play−8%+7%Counter-attacks+17%−69%Set pieces+20%+36%Headers+6%+52%

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdHibernian concededLeft side−15%−19%Centre−39%−12%Right side−36%−28%Open play−39%−28%Counter-attacks−100%+111%Set pieces+3%−9%Headers−23%−26%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianLivingston

1.23xG0.98
1.07xG against1.56
57%Possession38%
16.7Shots9.7
9.9Shots against14.8
4.8Shots on target3.2
1.3Big chances1.4
23.7Touches in the opposition box19.9
413Passes270
77%Pass accuracy62%
6.6Corners3.9
63%Field tilt39%
47.9Final-third entries25.8
13.9Box entries8.2
11.0Passes per defensive action16.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level371.011.23
Ahead181.320.90
Behind351.410.98

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level351.031.28
Ahead350.891.49
Behind201.042.17

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.092–6
16–300.080.151–3
31–450.240.183–3
46–600.280.254–5
61–750.230.176–4
76–900.250.224–5

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.180.134–2
16–300.170.093–1
31–450.170.333–3
46–600.060.282–4
61–750.180.282–7
76–900.220.452–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMarshall 17Cadden 13Porteous 4Porteous 11Bushiri 8Hanlon 15Cabraja 11Kukharevych 3Campbell 1Newell 9Campbell 5Henderson 3Kenneh 13Boyle 6Cadden 4Melkersen 3Campbell 4Newell 4Cabraja 3Youan 7Newell 3Henderson 2Kukharevych 6Youan 4Boyle 34-2-3-1 in 7 of 17 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (7), 3-5-2 (4), 4-1-4-1 (3), 4-4-2 (2), 5-3-2 (1)

Livingston

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMAMAMSTGeorge 13Konovalov 2Hamilton 1Devlin 16Obileye 15Fitzwater 10Sean Kelly 6Longridge 1Montano 12Penrice 1Longridge 1Pittman 9Omeonga 7Stephen Kelly 3Holt 13Bahamboula 3Sean Kelly 10Goncalves 1Shinnie 7Omeonga 3Stephen Kelly 3Nouble 5Pittman 5Penrice 3Nouble 10Anderson 3Guthrie 34-3-2-1 in 5 of 16 starts

Formations: 4-3-2-1 (5), 4-2-3-1 (3), 4-3-3 (3), 5-4-1 (1), 4-3-1-2 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
13 August 2022Livingston2–1HibernianxG 1.45–1.86
30 April 2022Livingston1–0HibernianxG 1.32–1.12
29 January 2022Hibernian2–3LivingstonxG 1.32–1.88
8 December 2021Livingston1–0HibernianxG 1.23–1.95
28 August 2021Hibernian2–0LivingstonxG 1.05–0.63
21 April 2021Hibernian2–1LivingstonxG 2.31–1.77

9 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 3, Livingston won 5, and 1 was a draw. Goals 12–13 and xG 1.62–1.33 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kukharevych10744310.390.13
Boyle10936510.330.13
Youan11962130.210.13
Henderson8635120.210.11

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Sean Kelly161,324220.240.12
Nouble151,327320.170.08
Bahamboula6519100.150.08
Montano12971310.060.12

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.