Digressive Celts

Matches › 2021/22

Hibernian 2–3 Livingston

Saturday 29 January 2022, 15:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 24 · Half-time 2–1 · Referee Grant Irvine · Attendance 15,480

Hibernian Mitchell 6', Cadden 32'

Livingston Obileye 18', Fitzwater 53', Forrest 59'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianLivingston
Goals23
xG1.321.88
Expected Points0.971.76

Hibernian 23%Draw 27%Livingston 50%

Most likely score 1–2, 13%. Final score 2–3, 5%.

Livingston goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+2%6%6%4%1%4%8%3%3%8%5%2%3%3%2%13%13%10%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTBushiri on for McGinn, 22'Mueller on for Campbell and Murphy on for Doidge, 65'Doig on for Stevenson and Scott on for Mitchell, 73'Montano on for Longridge, 46'Anderson on for Nouble and Shinnie on for Pittman, 77'Boyes on for Forrest, 89'Mitchell 6'Cadden 32'Obileye 18'Fitzwater 53'Forrest 59'Livingston 1.88Hibernian 1.3200.511.520153045607590HTBushiri on for McGinn, 22'Mueller on for Campbell and Murphy on for Doidge, 65'Doig on for Stevenson and Scott on for Mitchell, 73'Montano on for Longridge, 46'Anderson on for Nouble and Shinnie on for Pittman, 77'Boyes on for Forrest, 89'Mitchell 6'Cadden 32'Obileye 18'Fitzwater 53'Forrest 59'1.881.32HibernianLivingston

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianLivingston

1.32 +0.06xG1.88 +1.14
2.54 +1.39xG on target2.15 +1.47
11 −0.5Shots19 +10.5
5 +1.5Shots on target9 +6.1
2 +0.5Big chances2 +1.2
18 −1Touches in the opposition box29 +15
67% +13Possession33% −6
528 +104Passes267 −31
86% +11Pass accuracy72% +10
61% +6Field tilt39% +4
56 +16Final-third entries32 +9
9 −2.6Box entries9 +1.5
8.8 −4Passes per defensive action19.5 +3
4 −1.4Corners4 +0.6
12 −2Tackles17 +1
7 −2.4Interceptions12 +1.1
15 −1Clearances30 +8
4 +1.5Saves3 −0.2
11 −1Fouls8 −6
1 −1.2Offsides2 −0.4

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Doidge 6', 0.29 xGNisbet 76', 0.21 xGNisbet 77', 0.09 xGBushiri 82', 0.04 xGNisbet 88', 0.04 xGMueller 70', 0.03 xGNisbet 88', 0.03 xGMueller 90+1', 0.03 xGCampbell 42', 0.02 xGMitchell 6', 0.53 xG, goalCadden 32', 0.01 xG, goal40%0.53 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.53 xG, 1 goal52%0.69 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.69 xG, 0 goals3%0.04 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.03 xG, 1 goal

Livingston

Bailey 54', 0.48 xGBailey 54', 0.11 xGForrest 58', 0.10 xGNouble 29', 0.06 xGObileye 55', 0.06 xGDevlin 89', 0.05 xGBailey 39', 0.04 xGDevlin 9', 0.03 xGBailey 72', 0.03 xGForrest 14', 0.02 xGForrest 48', 0.02 xGForrest 52', 0.02 xGForrest 65', 0.02 xGForrest 81', 0.02 xGForrest 45+3', 0.01 xGDevlin 64', 0.01 xGObileye 18', 0.43 xG, goalFitzwater 53', 0.24 xG, goalForrest 59', 0.13 xG, goal25%0.48 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.48 xG, 0 goals53%1.01 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 1.01 xG, 3 goals6%0.11 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals12%0.23 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.23 xG, 0 goals3%0.06 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianLivingston

0.67 8 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.49 12 shots, 1 goal
0.66 3 shots, 1 goalSet pieces1.39 7 shots, 2 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
26 min (28%) · Hibernian 0.82, Livingston 0.93 xG
Hibernian ahead
36 min (38%) · Hibernian 0.02, Livingston 0.82 xG
Livingston ahead
32 min (34%) · Hibernian 0.48, Livingston 0.14 xG

Line-ups

165162722321980159MaceyMcGinnPorteousStevensonCaddenDoyle-HayesCampbellMitchellHendersonNisbetDoidgeGoalGoal22'73'65'73'65'Hibernian 3-4-1-2Shaun Maloney32256381833141917StryjekDevlinFitzwaterObileyeLongridgePittmanHoltOmeongaBaileyNoubleForrestGoalGoalYellow cardGoal46'77'77'89'Livingston 4-3-3David Martindale

Hibernian substitutes

  • 22' Bushiri for McGinn
  • 65' Murphy for Doidge · yellow card 79'
  • 65' Mueller for Campbell
  • 73' Doig for Stevenson
  • 73' Scott for Mitchell

Livingston substitutes

  • 46' Montano for Longridge
  • 77' Shinnie for Pittman
  • 77' Anderson for Nouble
  • 89' Boyes for Forrest

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MaceyGK900.000.0000.0010
McGinnCB220.000.0100.0331
PorteousCB900.000.0820.20132
StevensonCB730.000.0100.1195
CaddenRWB9010.010.0510.12123
Doyle-HayesCM900.000.0100.0246
CampbellCM6510.020.021−0.0224
MitchellLWB7310.530.0200.0592
HendersonAM900.000.2520.0735
NisbetST900.370.0300.0772
DoidgeST650.290.0000.1101
BushiriDF680.040.0000.0215
Murphy MF250.000.000−0.0100
MuellerFW250.060.0510.1232
DoigDF170.000.0000.0212
ScottFW170.000.0000.0220

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
StryjekGK900.000.0100.0661
DevlinRB900.100.0100.0116
FitzwaterCB9010.240.0000.03519
ObileyeCB9010.490.000−0.1502
LongridgeLB460.000.0000.0215
PittmanCM770.000.011−0.0201
Holt CM900.000.061−0.0117
OmeongaCM900.000.0110.0227
BaileyRW9010.660.0830.0855
NoubleST7720.060.3330.2402
ForrestLW8910.340.1220.2190
MontanoFW440.000.0110.0333
ShinnieFW130.000.0000.0110
AndersonFW130.000.0000.0001
BoyesDF10.000.0000.0002

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Stevenson and Henderson: 3 passesMcGinn and Campbell: 3 passesMcGinn and Nisbet: 3 passesPorteous and Campbell: 4 passesStevenson and Nisbet: 4 passesCadden and Nisbet: 4 passesDoyle-Hayes and Campbell: 4 passesCadden and Campbell: 5 passesPorteous and Stevenson: 7 passesStevenson and Campbell: 9 passesStevenson and Mitchell: 13 passesMcGinn and Cadden: 13 passesMacey: 4 completed passesPorteous: 12 completed passesStevenson: 21 completed passesMcGinn: 11 completed passesCadden: 11 completed passesDoyle-Hayes: 6 completed passesCampbell: 16 completed passesMitchell: 8 completed passesHenderson: 7 completed passesDoidge: 1 completed passesNisbet: 8 completed passes151662722321980915MaceyPorteousStevensonMcGinnCaddenDoyle-HayesCampbellMitchellHendersonDoidgeNisbetStarters until 22' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Livingston

Devlin and Forrest: 3 passesFitzwater and Holt: 3 passesOmeonga and Bailey: 3 passesOmeonga and Nouble: 3 passesHolt and Bailey: 3 passesStryjek and Obileye: 4 passesDevlin and Fitzwater: 4 passesDevlin and Nouble: 4 passesPittman and Nouble: 4 passesNouble and Forrest: 5 passesDevlin and Pittman: 6 passesDevlin and Holt: 6 passesDevlin and Bailey: 6 passesLongridge and Omeonga: 8 passesLongridge and Forrest: 10 passesStryjek: 3 completed passesDevlin: 14 completed passesObileye: 8 completed passesFitzwater: 10 completed passesLongridge: 15 completed passesOmeonga: 11 completed passesPittman: 9 completed passesHolt: 13 completed passesBailey: 11 completed passesNouble: 9 completed passesForrest: 9 completed passes32265333818141917StryjekDevlinObileyeFitzwaterLongridgeOmeongaPittmanHoltBaileyNoubleForrestStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
StevensonMitchell15
PorteousHenderson15
CaddenPorteous15
BushiriPorteous14
PorteousCadden13

Livingston

FromToPasses
DevlinNouble8
HoltDevlin7
LongridgeForrest6
FitzwaterStryjek5
LongridgeOmeonga5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

3−1.76+1.512+0.610+4.65+0.24−2.411+3.75−0.513+5.27+0.64−1.81−4.51−2.65−2.06+0.811+5.91−2.62−0.14+0.81−2.92−0.22+0.52+1.10−1.21−1.41−0.20−0.11+0.10−0.21+0.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 22 matches

Livingston

10+4.510+3.917+1.28+0.76−0.56−1.78+1.75−3.112+2.93−3.27+2.11−3.34−1.27+0.44−0.53+0.23+0.34+0.95+0.83+0.53+1.82+0.92+0.43+1.32+0.70−0.40−0.60−0.40−0.92−6.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 22 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

0.010.040.020.010.040.050.030.020.030.060.100.060.010.010.020.030.070.050.10−0.02−0.010.18LessMore

Livingston

0.010.040.010.010.010.020.010.010.03−0.010.010.010.060.010.040.010.060.050.050.02−0.140.010.21LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.13AttackHibernian1.17 → 1.18Livingston0.89 → 0.93Defence (lower is better)Hibernian0.99 → 1.03Livingston1.19 → 1.20

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hibernian
Top six91%81%−10
Livingston
Top six11%23%+12
11th7%4%−3
Bottom3%1%−2

From the forecast before the match (29 January 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianLivingston
Expected goals1.400.73
Win52%19%
Expected Points1.860.86
Clean sheet48%25%

Hibernian 52%Draw 29%Livingston 19%

Most likely score 1–0, 16%. Both sides score 40%.

Livingston goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+8%3%4%1%8%3%5%4%1%2%1%12%16%13%12%

From the forecast as it stood on 29 January 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawLivingston win
Hibernian
Top six91%95%89%81%
Livingston
Top six11%6%12%23%
11th7%8%6%4%
Bottom3%3%2%1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. D0–026 JanMotherwell (A)xG 0.38–0.61
  2. L0–217 JanCeltic (A)xG 0.57–2.94
  3. W3–126 DecDundee United (A)xG 1.80–0.54
  4. W1–022 DecAberdeen (H)xG 0.41–0.70
  5. W1–014 DecDundee FC (H)xG 1.14–0.62
  6. D1–111 DecSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.06–0.60

Livingston

  1. L0–126 JanRangers (A)xG 0.34–1.51
  2. W2–018 JanDundee FC (H)xG 1.27–0.56
  3. L1–226 DecMotherwell (A)xG 0.43–0.92
  4. D1–118 DecRoss County (H)xG 1.00–0.57
  5. W1–011 DecDundee United (A)xG 1.22–0.87
  6. W1–08 DecHibernian (H)xG 1.23–1.95

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianLivingston
Position5th9th
Played2222
Won, drawn, lost8–⁠6–⁠86–⁠5–⁠11
Points30 (1.36 per game)23 (1.05 per game)
Expected Points per game1.510.89
Goals24–⁠2418–⁠27
xG per game1.26–⁠1.040.74–⁠1.38
Home: points, xG per game1.70, 1.22–⁠1.021.10, 0.99–⁠1.32
Away: points, xG per game1.08, 1.29–⁠1.051.00, 0.53–⁠1.43
ManagerShaun Maloney (4)David Martindale (45)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.13AttackHibernian1.17, 4thLivingston0.89, 10thDefence (lower is better)Hibernian0.99, 4thLivingston1.19, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanHibernian attack: 1.17Livingston attack: 0.891.170.89LivingstonHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanHibernian defence: 0.99Livingston defence: 1.191.190.99

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianLivingston
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+9%−16%−38%+9%
Counter-attacks+49%+35%−43%+12%
Set pieces−41%−10%−30%+10%
Penalties+68%−33%−66%+68%
Headers−15%−1%−34%+7%
Left side−7%−14%−13%+4%
Centre−2%+1%−42%+7%
Right side+2%−38%−45%+21%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdLivingston concededLeft side−7%+21%Centre−2%+7%Right side+2%+4%Open play+9%+9%Counter-attacks+49%+12%Set pieces−41%+10%Headers−15%+7%

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdHibernian concededLeft side−13%−38%Centre−42%+1%Right side−45%−14%Open play−38%−16%Counter-attacks−43%+35%Set pieces−30%−10%Headers−34%−1%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianLivingston

1.26xG0.74
1.04xG against1.38
54%Possession39%
11.5Shots8.5
10.5Shots against14.5
3.5Shots on target2.9
1.5Big chances0.8
18.8Touches in the opposition box13.9
424Passes298
75%Pass accuracy62%
5.4Corners3.4
55%Field tilt36%
39.7Final-third entries23.4
11.6Box entries7.5
12.9Passes per defensive action16.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.240.84
Ahead211.151.00
Behind231.381.46

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level460.731.09
Ahead160.781.84
Behind280.721.59

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.101–5
16–300.140.203–5
31–450.240.156–3
46–600.210.195–3
61–750.270.174–2
76–900.250.235–6

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.151–4
16–300.140.184–4
31–450.170.215–3
46–600.060.222–4
61–750.160.222–6
76–900.120.394–6

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTMacey 22McGinn 10Boyle 9Cadden 1Porteous 17Bushiri 2Wood 1Hanlon 18McGregor 5Stevenson 2Cadden 13McGinn 8Doig 1Doyle-Hayes 18Cadden 2Newell 16Gogic 3Magennis 3Doig 16Stevenson 4Newell 1Campbell 9Allan 4Magennis 4Nisbet 19Scott 2Doidge 1Boyle 11Murphy 8Gullan 23-4-1-2 in 9 of 22 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (9), 4-2-3-1 (8), 3-5-2 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 4-5-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

Livingston

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWStryjek 22Devlin 17McMillan 4Fitzwater 1Fitzwater 20Obileye 18Parkes 5Longridge 1Penrice 10Longridge 6Kelly 3Pittman 8Bailey 4McMillan 4Holt 22Kelly 1Omeonga 14Shinnie 3Penrice 3Bailey 7Sibbald 6Forrest 3Anderson 15Shinnie 6Forrest 1Forrest 9Shinnie 4Montano 44-3-3 in 9 of 22 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (9), 3-4-2-1 (3), 4-2-3-1 (3), 4-1-4-1 (2), 3-1-4-2 (1), 4-3-2-1 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 4-4-2 (1), 4-5-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
8 December 2021Livingston1–0HibernianxG 1.23–1.95
28 August 2021Hibernian2–0LivingstonxG 1.05–0.63
21 April 2021Hibernian2–1LivingstonxG 2.31–1.77
20 March 2021Livingston1–1HibernianxG 1.09–0.68
2 January 2021Hibernian0–3LivingstonxG 0.49–1.18
8 August 2020Livingston1–4HibernianxG 1.42–3.83

6 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 3, Livingston won 2, and 1 was a draw. Goals 9–7 and xG 1.72–1.22 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Murphy8776210.330.20
Boyle201,781730.310.21
Nisbet201,682500.360.04
Magennis7580210.240.15

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Forrest141,302110.190.11
Anderson151,143730.210.07
Montano5477000.240.02
Pittman8827110.160.03

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.