Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Ross County 3–2 St. Mirren

Saturday 5 November 2022, 15:00 · Global Energy Stadium · Round 14 · Half-time 1–2 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 3,589

Ross County White 10', Tillson 56', Harmon 60'

St. Mirren Strain 13', O'Hara 45+2'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Ross CountySt. Mirren
Goals32
xG1.140.59
Expected Points1.810.85

Ross County 49%Draw 34%St. Mirren 17%

Most likely score 1–0, 21%. Final score 3–2, 1%.

St. Mirren goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+9%3%4%12%8%2%4%2%16%21%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTWatson on for Baldwin, 26'Cancola on for Loturi, 73'Akio on for Hiwula-Mayifuila, 81'Samuel on for Edwards, 82'Greive on for Gogic and Tanser on for Erhahon, 62'Brophy on for Main, 73'Kiltie on for Fraser, 78'White 10'Tillson 56'Harmon 60'Strain 13'O'Hara 45+2'Ross County 1.14St. Mirren 0.5900.511.50153045607590HTWatson on for Baldwin, 26'Cancola on for Loturi, 73'Akio on for Hiwula-Mayifuila, 81'Samuel on for Edwards, 82'Greive on for Gogic and Tanser on for Erhahon, 62'Brophy on for Main, 73'Kiltie on for Fraser, 78'White 10'Tillson 56'Harmon 60'Strain 13'O'Hara 45+2'1.140.59Ross CountySt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Ross CountySt. Mirren

1.14 +0.42xG0.59 −0.44
1.98 +1.26xG on target1.16 +0.21
10 +1.7Shots11 +0.2
4 +1.7Shots on target4 +1.2
1 +0.2Big chances1 −0.9
21 +5Touches in the opposition box17 +4
59% +16Possession41% +4
440 +116Passes297 +36
76% +12Pass accuracy64% +3
56% +19Field tilt44% +8
37 +8Final-third entries39 +10
7 −0.8Box entries12 +3.0
15.6 0Passes per defensive action17.2 +1
7 +3.4Corners5 −1.1
7 −9Tackles20 +5
8 −2.0Interceptions13 +4.1
27 +6Clearances17 −6
2 −1.1Saves1 −1.6
9 −3Fouls13 −1
0 −2.4Offsides0 −1.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Ross County

Harmon 41', 0.11 xGIacovitti 4', 0.10 xGWhite 33', 0.08 xGWhite 39', 0.08 xGWhite 29', 0.07 xGEdwards 70', 0.04 xGLoturi 9', 0.02 xGWhite 10', 0.40 xG, goalTillson 56', 0.14 xG, goalHarmon 60', 0.09 xG, goal35%0.40 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.40 xG, 1 goal53%0.60 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.60 xG, 2 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals12%0.13 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Greive 85', 0.15 xGAyunga 72', 0.13 xGAyunga 46', 0.10 xGMain 57', 0.04 xGStrain 58', 0.04 xGBaccus 45', 0.03 xGBrophy 79', 0.03 xGAyunga 90', 0.02 xGAyunga 21', 0.01 xGStrain 13', 0.03 xG, goalO'Hara 45+2', 0.02 xG, goal17%0.10 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.10 xG, 0 goals3%0.02 xGCentral box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 1 goal62%0.37 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.37 xG, 0 goals7%0.04 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals12%0.07 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.07 xG, 1 goal

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Ross CountySt. Mirren

0.81 6 shots, 3 goalsOpen play0.52 8 shots, 0 goals
0.11 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.21 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.07 3 shots, 2 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
48 min (51%) · Ross County 0.95, St. Mirren 0.14 xG
Ross County ahead
35 min (37%) · Ross County 0.04, St. Mirren 0.35 xG
St. Mirren ahead
11 min (12%) · Ross County 0.14, St. Mirren 0.10 xG

Line-ups

112561622147101926LaidlawJohnsonBaldwinIacovittiHarmonTillsonLoturiEdwardsDhandaHiwula-MayifuilaWhiteGoalGoalYellow cardGoalYellow card26'73'82'81'Ross County 4-2-3-1Malky Mackay1231331182217166710CarsonStrainGogicGallagherDunneFraserBaccusErhahonO'HaraAyungaMainGoalGoalYellow cardYellow cardYellow card62'78'62'73'St. Mirren 5-3-2Stephen Robinson

Ross County substitutes

  • 26' Watson for Baldwin
  • 73' Cancola for Loturi
  • 81' Akio for Hiwula-Mayifuila
  • 82' Samuel for Edwards

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 62' Tanser for Erhahon
  • 62' Greive for Gogic
  • 73' Brophy for Main
  • 78' Kiltie for Fraser

Players

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LaidlawGK900.000.0000.0330
JohnsonRB900.000.0910.0680
BaldwinCB260.000.0010.0113
IacovittiCB900.100.0700.12135
HarmonLB9010.200.0910.0883
TillsonDM9010.140.030−0.0127
Loturi DM7310.020.4310.2783
EdwardsRW8210.040.3320.1351
DhandaAM900.000.1010.0964
Hiwula-MayifuilaLW810.000.0110.0320
White ST9010.620.010−0.0111
WatsonDF640.000.1410.13216
CancolaMF170.000.0000.0121
AkioFW90.000.0000.0000
SamuelFW80.000.0000.0101

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
CarsonGK900.000.0110.0440
StrainRWB9010.070.1020.32118
GogicCB620.000.0000.0005
GallagherCB900.000.0000.0215
DunneCB900.000.0200.0969
FraserLWB780.000.0100.0218
BaccusCM900.030.0100.0236
ErhahonCM620.000.0210.0552
O'Hara CM9010.020.0300.0134
Ayunga ST900.260.011−0.0712
Main ST730.040.0500.0843
TanserMF280.000.0300.0741
GreiveFW280.150.000−0.0130
BrophyFW170.030.0000.0110
KiltieFW120.000.0620.0330

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Ross County

Baldwin and Edwards: 3 passesTillson and Edwards: 3 passesTillson and Dhanda: 3 passesLoturi and Edwards: 3 passesJohnson and Edwards: 4 passesIacovitti and Dhanda: 4 passesLoturi and Dhanda: 4 passesLaidlaw and Iacovitti: 5 passesEdwards and Dhanda: 5 passesJohnson and Loturi: 6 passesBaldwin and Iacovitti: 7 passesJohnson and Baldwin: 8 passesBaldwin and Loturi: 8 passesIacovitti and Harmon: 13 passesLaidlaw: 9 completed passesJohnson: 14 completed passesBaldwin: 15 completed passesIacovitti: 15 completed passesHarmon: 9 completed passesTillson: 5 completed passesLoturi: 13 completed passesEdwards: 9 completed passesDhanda: 10 completed passesHiwula-Mayifuila: 1 completed passesWhite: 1 completed passes112561622147101926LaidlawJohnsonBaldwinIacovittiHarmonTillsonLoturiEdwardsDhandaHiwula-MayifuilaWhiteStarters until 26' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

St. Mirren

Carson and Fraser: 3 passesCarson and Main: 3 passesGogic and Gallagher: 3 passesDunne and Gallagher: 3 passesGallagher and Erhahon: 3 passesGallagher and O'Hara: 3 passesErhahon and Main: 3 passesO'Hara and Ayunga: 3 passesDunne and Fraser: 4 passesDunne and O'Hara: 4 passesStrain and Baccus: 5 passesStrain and Erhahon: 5 passesFraser and Erhahon: 5 passesStrain and Main: 7 passesErhahon and O'Hara: 7 passesFraser and O'Hara: 9 passesStrain and Ayunga: 15 passesCarson: 9 completed passesStrain: 21 completed passesGogic: 5 completed passesDunne: 9 completed passesGallagher: 7 completed passesFraser: 13 completed passesBaccus: 2 completed passesErhahon: 19 completed passesO'Hara: 16 completed passesAyunga: 8 completed passesMain: 8 completed passes1231318312217166710CarsonStrainGogicDunneGallagherFraserBaccusErhahonO'HaraAyungaMainStarters until 62' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Ross County

FromToPasses
IacovittiHarmon14
HarmonIacovitti13
JohnsonEdwards13
LoturiJohnson9
IacovittiDhanda9

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
StrainAyunga9
O'HaraDunne7
FraserO'Hara7
AyungaStrain6
TanserGreive6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Ross County

4−2.07−1.418+3.07−0.74−1.94−2.17+0.14−2.08+1.54−2.11−3.22−1.54−1.01−3.56+1.80−3.65+1.81−2.31−3.53+0.72+0.40−0.82+0.22+0.30−0.70−0.40−0.90−0.30−0.62−5.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 13 matches

St. Mirren

7+2.712−1.86+2.111+2.76−2.23−2.29+3.310+3.04−2.63−1.52−1.16+1.99+3.73−0.81−2.45+2.74+1.04+1.11−1.51−0.90−0.83+1.52−0.11−0.41+0.410.01+0.40−0.94−3.75−3.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 12 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Ross County

0.030.010.020.010.020.030.060.040.020.030.050.030.050.06−0.010.040.050.010.050.11−0.010.030.22LessMore

St. Mirren

0.010.020.010.010.010.030.010.020.010.040.060.020.010.030.100.020.02−0.020.06−0.01−0.01−0.050.040.020.20LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.21AttackRoss County0.86 → 0.89St. Mirren0.92 → 0.92Defence (lower is better)Ross County1.51 → 1.49St. Mirren1.37 → 1.40

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Ross County
Top six1%2%+1
11th24%25%+1
Bottom53%43%−10
St. Mirren
Top six36%28%−8
11th6%8%+2
Bottom2%3%+1
Dundee United
11th28%26%−2
Bottom23%26%+3
Kilmarnock
Top six5%5%0
11th24%22%−2
Bottom16%19%+3

From the forecast before the match (5 November 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Ross CountySt. Mirren
Expected goals1.181.04
Win38%31%
Expected Points1.451.25
Clean sheet35%31%

Ross County 38%Draw 30%St. Mirren 31%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 46%.

St. Mirren goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+6%2%7%2%8%8%4%1%3%3%2%11%11%12%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 5 November 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowRoss County winDrawSt. Mirren win
Ross County
Top six1%2%<1%<1%
11th24%25%24%22%
Bottom53%43%55%62%
St. Mirren
Top six36%28%33%48%
11th6%8%6%3%
Bottom2%3%2%1%
Dundee United
11th28%26%28%31%
Bottom23%26%22%19%
Kilmarnock
Top six5%5%5%4%
11th24%22%24%25%
Bottom16%19%15%13%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Ross County

  1. L1–230 OctHearts (H)xG 1.44–0.65
  2. L0–122 OctKilmarnock (A)xG 0.70–1.10
  3. D1–115 OctDundee United (H)xG 0.35–1.64
  4. W1–08 OctLivingston (A)xG 0.53–1.73
  5. L0–54 OctMotherwell (H)xG 0.52–2.58
  6. L0–21 OctHibernian (H)xG 0.66–1.66

St. Mirren

  1. L0–329 OctHibernian (A)xG 0.82–1.87
  2. W2–122 OctDundee United (H)xG 1.29–0.70
  3. D0–015 OctKilmarnock (H)xG 0.68–1.13
  4. L0–48 OctRangers (A)xG 0.37–2.73
  5. W2–11 OctLivingston (H)xG 0.77–1.45
  6. W2–018 SepCeltic (H)xG 0.82–1.18

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Ross CountySt. Mirren
Position12th5th
Played1312
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠3–⁠86–⁠1–⁠5
Points9 (0.69 per game)19 (1.58 per game)
Expected Points per game0.891.05
Goals7–⁠2212–⁠17
xG per game0.72–⁠1.441.03–⁠1.52
Home: points, xG per game0.71, 0.77–⁠1.402.29, 1.08–⁠0.97
Away: points, xG per game0.67, 0.67–⁠1.480.60, 0.95–⁠2.29
ManagerMalky Mackay (51)Stephen Robinson (5)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.21AttackRoss County0.86, 12thSt. Mirren0.92, 10thDefence (lower is better)Ross County1.51, 12thSt. Mirren1.37, 10th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovRoss County attack: 0.86St. Mirren attack: 0.920.920.86St. MirrenRoss CountyDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovRoss County defence: 1.51St. Mirren defence: 1.371.511.37

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Ross CountySt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−45%+20%−31%+10%
Counter-attacks−48%+100%+89%−86%
Set pieces−7%+9%+16%−24%
Penalties−100%−51%−47%+221%
Headers−15%+1%+42%−14%
Left side−21%+4%−20%+33%
Centre−32%+28%−17%−16%
Right side−60%+26%−10%−16%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−21%−16%Centre−32%−16%Right side−60%+33%Open play−45%+10%Counter-attacks−48%−86%Set pieces−7%−24%Headers−15%−14%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdRoss County concededLeft side−20%+26%Centre−17%+28%Right side−10%+4%Open play−31%+20%Counter-attacks+89%+100%Set pieces+16%+9%Headers+42%+1%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Ross CountySt. Mirren

0.72xG1.03
1.44xG against1.52
43%Possession37%
8.3Shots10.8
16.2Shots against13.4
2.3Shots on target2.8
0.8Big chances1.9
16.3Touches in the opposition box13.4
324Passes262
64%Pass accuracy61%
3.6Corners6.1
37%Field tilt36%
29.5Final-third entries29.0
7.8Box entries9.0
15.1Passes per defensive action16.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level550.691.39
Ahead40.003.08
Behind310.871.34

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level420.971.32
Ahead221.301.40
Behind260.901.96

xG by period

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.191–1
16–300.130.220–4
31–450.130.281–1
46–600.060.341–8
61–750.160.181–1
76–900.150.233–7

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.151–1
16–300.130.310–3
31–450.210.313–4
46–600.200.204–1
61–750.120.241–4
76–900.280.323–4

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Ross County

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTLaidlaw 13Johnson 9Watson 2Randall 2Baldwin 12Watson 1Iacovitti 13Purrington 11Harmon 2Tillson 6Callachan 6Loturi 1Cancola 11Paton 2Hiwula-Mayifuila 4Edwards 3Sims 2Callachan 5Dhanda 4Samuel 3Edwards 5Olaigbe 3Sims 2White 8Hiwula-Mayifuila 54-2-3-1 in every start

St. Mirren

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTCarson 12Strain 10Fraser 2Fraser 8Gogic 4Gallagher 9Shaughne… 3ShaughnessyDunne 12Tait 7Tanser 5Baccus 12Erhahon 12O'Hara 10Kiltie 2Ayunga 11Kiltie 1Main 10Greive 25-3-2 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
13 August 2022St. Mirren1–0Ross CountyxG 0.25–0.35
5 March 2022Ross County1–0St. MirrenxG 1.23–0.31
1 December 2021St. Mirren0–0Ross CountyxG 1.89–0.93
16 October 2021Ross County2–3St. MirrenxG 1.15–1.10
21 April 2021Ross County1–3St. MirrenxG 0.65–2.23
27 February 2021St. Mirren1–0Ross CountyxG 1.41–1.91

8 league meetings since 2020/21: Ross County won 1, St. Mirren won 5, and 2 were drawn. Goals 5–11 and xG 1.12–1.29 per game.

Key players

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
White8764200.240.07
Edwards8787210.150.09
Dhanda4489010.020.17
Johnson9849000.100.07

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Ayunga11866220.400.04
Main10802200.210.05
Strain10848020.040.20
Baccus121,014200.100.04

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.