Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

St. Mirren 1–0 Ross County

Saturday 18 February 2023, 15:00 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 26 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Graham Grainger · Attendance 5,634

St. Mirren Gallagher 7'

Ross County O. Edwards sent off 90+3'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenRoss County
Goals10
xG2.340.63
Expected Points2.480.36

St. Mirren 77%Draw 16%Ross County 7%

Most likely score 2–0, 15%. Final score 1–0, 11%.

Ross County goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+4%3%8%2%10%3%8%2%6%4%1%2%2%11%15%12%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTO. Edwards (Ross County), red card 90+3'Shaughnessy on for Small, 56'Offord on for Watt, 78'R. Taylor on for Gallagher, 90+6'Callachan on for Baldwin, O. Edwards on for Dhanda, and G. Edwards on for Harmon, 46'Smith on for Randall, 75'Samuel on for Murray, 80'Gallagher 7'St. Mirren 2.34Ross County 0.6301230153045607590HTO. Edwards (Ross County), red card 90+3'Shaughnessy on for Small, 56'Offord on for Watt, 78'R. Taylor on for Gallagher, 90+6'Callachan on for Baldwin, O. Edwards on for Dhanda, and G. Edwards on for Harmon, 46'Smith on for Randall, 75'Samuel on for Murray, 80'Gallagher 7'2.340.63St. MirrenRoss County

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenRoss County

2.34 +1.30xG0.63 −0.16
1.38 +0.43xG on target0.12 −0.67
20 +8.4Shots10 +1.8
5 +1.8Shots on target2 −0.4
2 +0.4Big chances0 −1.0
47 +28Touches in the opposition box19 +4
41% +3Possession59% +16
269 −8Passes410 +89
62% 0Pass accuracy68% +4
54% +14Field tilt46% +10
24 −8Final-third entries30 +1
16 +6.8Box entries8 +0.9
20.5 +4Passes per defensive action12.6 −3
10 +4.4Corners8 +5.0
15 0Tackles16 0
5 −4.4Interceptions7 −2.8
27 +5Clearances48 +25
2 −0.3Saves4 +0.6
8 −6Fouls9 −3
0 −1.2Offsides0 −2.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Offord 82', 0.45 xGStrain 82', 0.24 xGMain 78', 0.21 xGO'Hara 82', 0.17 xGO'Hara 21', 0.13 xGStrain 22', 0.13 xGWatt 45+2', 0.11 xGKiltie 78', 0.11 xGDunne 45+1', 0.10 xGWatt 66', 0.10 xGMain 3', 0.09 xGO'Hara 32', 0.08 xGMain 62', 0.08 xGStrain 23', 0.05 xGO'Hara 45', 0.05 xGFraser 45+1', 0.05 xGWatt 32', 0.04 xGKiltie 21', 0.02 xGMain 21', 0.01 xGGallagher 7', 0.14 xG, goal10%0.24 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.24 xG, 1 goal79%1.86 xGCentral box: 14 shots, 1.86 xG, 0 goals8%0.18 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals3%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Ross County

Watson 29', 0.14 xGKenneh 49', 0.10 xGCallachan 88', 0.10 xGWhite 41', 0.07 xGIacovitti 65', 0.06 xGG. Edwards 71', 0.05 xGG. Edwards 90', 0.05 xGCallachan 53', 0.03 xGDhanda 37', 0.02 xGG. Edwards 68', 0.02 xG22%0.14 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.14 xG, 0 goals35%0.22 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.22 xG, 0 goals13%0.08 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals22%0.14 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals8%0.05 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenRoss County

1.67 12 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.36 6 shots, 0 goals
0.68 8 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.26 4 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
7 min (7%) · St. Mirren 0.23, Ross County 0.00 xG
St. Mirren ahead
91 min (93%) · St. Mirren 2.12, Ross County 0.63 xG

Line-ups

123223118161186910CarsonStrainFraserGallagherDunneSmallKiltieFlynnO'HaraWattMainGoal90+6'56'78'St. Mirren 5-3-2Stephen Robinson115562144216102617LaidlawWatsonBaldwinIacovittiRandallLoturiKennehHarmonDhandaWhiteMurrayYellow card46'75'46'46'80'Ross County 3-4-1-2Malky Mackay

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 56' Shaughnessy for Small
  • 78' Offord for Watt
  • 90+6' R. Taylor for Gallagher

Ross County substitutes

  • 46' Callachan for Baldwin
  • 46' G. Edwards for Harmon
  • 46' O. Edwards for Dhanda · red card 90+3'
  • 75' Smith for Randall
  • 80' Samuel for Murray

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
CarsonGK900.000.0100.0581
StrainRWB9010.410.5130.3276
FraserCB900.050.2030.3399
GallagherCB9010.140.0100.02310
DunneCB900.100.0100.0359
SmallLWB560.000.0100.0431
KiltieCM900.140.1230.2463
FlynnCM900.000.4020.1825
O'HaraCM900.420.0200.0321
WattST780.240.021−0.1211
MainST900.390.050−0.1722
ShaughnessyDF340.000.0200.0002
OffordFW120.450.0000.0010
R. TaylorDF00.000.0000.0000

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LaidlawGK900.000.0000.0113
Watson CB900.140.0000.04613
BaldwinCB460.000.0000.0138
IacovittiCB900.060.0000.07812
RandallRWB750.000.0100.0348
LoturiCM900.000.0310.0545
KennehCM900.100.051−0.0112
HarmonLWB460.000.181−0.0118
DhandaAM460.020.0300.0333
WhiteST900.070.0110.0306
MurrayST800.000.0200.0321
CallachanMF440.130.0000.0111
G. EdwardsFW440.120.0810.0484
O. Edwards FW440.000.0100.0540
SmithDF150.000.0000.0225
SamuelFW100.000.0000.0110

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

Carson and Kiltie: 3 passesStrain and Gallagher: 3 passesFraser and O'Hara: 3 passesFraser and Main: 3 passesFraser and Watt: 3 passesGallagher and Small: 3 passesSmall and Watt: 3 passesKiltie and O'Hara: 3 passesKiltie and Watt: 3 passesMain and Watt: 3 passesFraser and Gallagher: 4 passesKiltie and Flynn: 4 passesDunne and Main: 5 passesFraser and Kiltie: 5 passesStrain and Watt: 6 passesKiltie and Main: 6 passesStrain and Kiltie: 7 passesDunne and Gallagher: 8 passesGallagher and Kiltie: 8 passesSmall and O'Hara: 9 passesStrain and Fraser: 11 passesCarson: 9 completed passesStrain: 16 completed passesDunne: 10 completed passesFraser: 21 completed passesGallagher: 23 completed passesSmall: 7 completed passesKiltie: 20 completed passesO'Hara: 9 completed passesFlynn: 9 completed passesMain: 6 completed passesWatt: 7 completed passes123182231161168109CarsonStrainDunneFraserGallagherSmallKiltieO'HaraFlynnMainWattStarters until 56' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Ross County

Randall and Murray: 3 passesKenneh and Loturi: 3 passesDhanda and Murray: 3 passesLaidlaw and Randall: 4 passesKenneh and Harmon: 4 passesLaidlaw and Iacovitti: 5 passesWatson and Loturi: 5 passesIacovitti and Loturi: 5 passesLoturi and Harmon: 5 passesLoturi and Dhanda: 5 passesBaldwin and Randall: 6 passesIacovitti and Dhanda: 6 passesLaidlaw and Watson: 7 passesRandall and Loturi: 7 passesRandall and Dhanda: 7 passesBaldwin and Watson: 8 passesBaldwin and Iacovitti: 10 passesWatson and Randall: 12 passesIacovitti and Harmon: 14 passesLaidlaw: 12 completed passesBaldwin: 17 completed passesWatson: 17 completed passesIacovitti: 22 completed passesRandall: 21 completed passesKenneh: 9 completed passesLoturi: 18 completed passesHarmon: 16 completed passesDhanda: 15 completed passesWhite: 4 completed passesMurray: 5 completed passes151562421416102617LaidlawBaldwinWatsonIacovittiRandallKennehLoturiHarmonDhandaWhiteMurrayStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
StrainWatt8
KiltieMain8
KiltieStrain6
FraserStrain6
O'HaraSmall5

Ross County

FromToPasses
RandallWatson12
LoturiRandall10
IacovittiHarmon8
BaldwinIacovitti7
G. EdwardsIacovitti7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

6+1.416+3.04−4.240.010+0.74−2.83−1.88+1.39+2.19+2.650.03−0.22−2.67+0.42−2.03−0.81−1.42−1.59+5.63+0.20−1.80−0.93+1.03+0.81−0.20−0.80−0.81+0.52+1.22−5.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 25 matches

Ross County

7+1.413+4.531+14.510+1.96−0.217+9.73−4.56−1.18+0.29+1.67+1.43−1.03−0.28+3.21−3.23−1.21−2.74+1.630.03−0.93+0.41−0.81+0.42+0.520.00−0.70−0.41+0.40−0.30−0.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 25 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.010.040.010.010.010.010.020.010.040.120.030.010.010.040.100.070.010.040.13−0.240.270.21LessMore

Ross County

0.040.010.030.030.010.030.010.030.010.020.020.010.010.010.01−0.010.040.060.05LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.24AttackSt. Mirren0.98 → 1.02Ross County0.91 → 0.89Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.31 → 1.27Ross County1.47 → 1.50

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six54%68%+14
11th1%<1%−1
Ross County
Bottom42%49%+7
Aberdeen
Top six51%44%−7
11th1%1%0
Kilmarnock
Top six<1%<1%0
11th24%25%+1
Bottom18%16%−2

From the forecast before the match (18 February 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenRoss County
Expected goals1.410.86
Win49%22%
Expected Points1.760.95
Clean sheet42%24%

St. Mirren 49%Draw 28%Ross County 22%

Most likely score 1–0, 14%. Both sides score 44%.

Ross County goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+8%4%1%5%2%9%4%1%5%4%2%2%1%11%14%13%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 February 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawRoss County win
St. Mirren
Top six54%68%45%36%
11th1%<1%1%2%
Ross County
Bottom42%49%41%26%
Aberdeen
Top six51%44%56%60%
11th1%1%1%1%
Kilmarnock
Top six<1%<1%1%1%
11th24%25%25%22%
Bottom18%16%18%24%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. L1–215 FebMotherwell (A)xG 0.46–0.48
  2. L0–14 FebHibernian (H)xG 0.36–0.64
  3. W3–11 FebAberdeen (A)xG 2.21–0.94
  4. W1–028 JanMotherwell (H)xG 0.60–0.40
  5. L0–418 JanCeltic (A)xG 0.53–2.25
  6. L0–113 JanHearts (A)xG 1.41–1.68

Ross County

  1. L1–24 FebRangers (A)xG 1.01–2.15
  2. D1–131 JanHibernian (H)xG 0.69–1.03
  3. W3–028 JanKilmarnock (H)xG 1.74–1.38
  4. D1–114 JanMotherwell (A)xG 1.23–0.82
  5. L0–27 JanLivingston (H)xG 0.86–0.90
  6. D0–02 JanAberdeen (A)xG 0.44–2.08

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenRoss County
Position6th11th
Played2525
Won, drawn, lost9–⁠6–⁠105–⁠6–⁠14
Points33 (1.32 per game)21 (0.84 per game)
Expected Points per game1.140.94
Goals27–⁠3520–⁠38
xG per game1.04–⁠1.320.79–⁠1.44
Home: points, xG per game1.92, 1.11–⁠0.990.92, 0.82–⁠1.40
Away: points, xG per game0.67, 0.97–⁠1.690.75, 0.77–⁠1.48
ManagerStephen Robinson (18)Malky Mackay (63)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.24AttackSt. Mirren0.98, 9thRoss County0.91, 12thDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.31, 5thRoss County1.47, 12th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebSt. Mirren attack: 0.98Ross County attack: 0.910.980.91Ross CountySt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebSt. Mirren defence: 1.31Ross County defence: 1.471.471.31

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenRoss County
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−28%−10%−40%+23%
Counter-attacks−11%−12%+11%+120%
Set pieces+3%−6%−23%+5%
Penalties−18%+85%−79%−79%
Headers+13%−2%−21%+12%
Left side−16%+3%−31%+18%
Centre−25%−11%−25%+21%
Right side−15%−20%−49%+32%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdRoss County concededLeft side−16%+32%Centre−25%+21%Right side−15%+18%Open play−28%+23%Counter-attacks−11%+120%Set pieces+3%+5%Headers+13%+12%

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−31%−20%Centre−25%−11%Right side−49%+3%Open play−40%−10%Counter-attacks+11%−12%Set pieces−23%−6%Headers−21%−2%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenRoss County

1.04xG0.79
1.32xG against1.44
38%Possession43%
11.6Shots8.2
11.7Shots against16.7
3.2Shots on target2.4
1.6Big chances1.0
18.9Touches in the opposition box14.9
277Passes321
62%Pass accuracy64%
5.6Corners3.0
39%Field tilt37%
32.0Final-third entries28.9
9.2Box entries7.1
16.7Passes per defensive action15.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.011.23
Ahead201.241.32
Behind250.941.50

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level510.781.36
Ahead110.591.99
Behind280.881.36

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.183–5
16–300.120.182–5
31–450.220.266–6
46–600.200.217–6
61–750.180.202–5
76–900.230.297–8

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.120.163–3
16–300.130.181–4
31–450.120.312–5
46–600.140.305–8
61–750.130.204–8
76–900.140.295–10

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTCarson 25Strain 22Fraser 2Flynn 1Fraser 18Gallagher 18Gogic 8Shaughne… 6ShaughnessyDunne 23R. Taylor 2Tanser 14Tait 7O'Hara 3Baccus 22Tanser 3Erhahon 20O'Hara 18Kiltie 8Gogic 4Ayunga 16Greive 8Kiltie 1Main 23Watt 1Brophy 15-3-2 in 22 of 25 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (22), 3-5-2 (3)

Ross County

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTLaidlaw 25Johnson 14Randall 9Watson 2Baldwin 18Watson 6Randall 1Iacovitti 25Harmon 11Purrington 11Kenneh 2Tillson 12Loturi 8Callachan 8Cancola 16Paton 2Dhanda 1Edwards 8Watson 4Hiwula-Mayifuila 4Dhanda 9Callachan 8Tillson 4Edwards 6White 5Olaigbe 4White 15Hiwula-Mayifuila 5Brophy 34-2-3-1 in 21 of 25 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (21), 3-4-1-2 (3), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
5 November 2022Ross County3–2St. MirrenxG 1.14–0.59
13 August 2022St. Mirren1–0Ross CountyxG 0.25–0.35
5 March 2022Ross County1–0St. MirrenxG 1.23–0.31
1 December 2021St. Mirren0–0Ross CountyxG 1.89–0.93
16 October 2021Ross County2–3St. MirrenxG 1.15–1.10
21 April 2021Ross County1–3St. MirrenxG 0.65–2.23

9 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 5, Ross County won 2, and 2 were drawn. Goals 13–8 and xG 1.21–1.12 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Ayunga161,288320.420.04
Greive8738300.400.02
Main231,938600.230.08
O'Hara211,775400.160.09

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
White201,801610.240.05
Edwards151,354220.130.08
Callachan171,409110.100.09
Dhanda151,319240.040.15

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.