Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Motherwell 3–3 Ross County

Saturday 28 October 2023, 15:00 · Fir Park · Round 10 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Graham Grainger · Attendance 5,119

Motherwell Biereth 79' (pen), Wilkinson 88', Ross 90+4'

Ross County Brophy 65', Murray 73', Loturi 83'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

MotherwellRoss County
Goals33
xG2.341.92
Non-penalty xG1.551.92
Expected Points1.681.06

Motherwell 47%Draw 26%Ross County 27%

Most likely score 2–2, 13%. Final score 3–3, 6%.

Ross County goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+1%2%6%6%4%1%4%7%3%3%8%9%6%2%1%3%4%2%10%13%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTWilkinson on for Bair, 61'Biereth on for O'Donnell and Gent on for Spencer, 75'L. Ross on for Shaw, 87'Turner on for Dhanda, 46'Samuel on for Brophy, White on for Murray, and High on for Allardice, 74'Smith on for Randall, 89'Biereth 79' (pen)Wilkinson 88'Ross 90+4'Brophy 65'Murray 73'Loturi 83'Motherwell 2.34Ross County 1.9201230153045607590HTWilkinson on for Bair, 61'Biereth on for O'Donnell and Gent on for Spencer, 75'L. Ross on for Shaw, 87'Turner on for Dhanda, 46'Samuel on for Brophy, White on for Murray, and High on for Allardice, 74'Smith on for Randall, 89'Biereth 79' (pen)Wilkinson 88'Ross 90+4'Brophy 65'Murray 73'Loturi 83'2.341.92MotherwellRoss County

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

MotherwellRoss County

2.34 +1.41xG1.92 +1.00
1.55Non-penalty xG1.92
2.32 +1.25xG on target2.36 +1.44
13 +2Shots14 +4
3 −1.2Shots on target6 +2.5
4 +2.9Big chances4 +2.1
35 +16Touches in the opposition box17 −2
46% +1Possession54% +12
356 +3Passes430 +117
64% −4Pass accuracy73% +12
54% +7Field tilt46% +1
37 +6Final-third entries31 +1
22 +11.9Box entries13 +3.9
12.7 −4Passes per defensive action18.8 +3
6 +0.8Corners4 −1.0
13 −4Tackles9 −5
13 +4.5Interceptions8 −2.1
9 −15Clearances23 +2
3 +1.0Saves0 −4.6
10 −3Fouls9 −4
1 −0.8Offsides1 −1.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Motherwell

O'Donnell 43', 0.29 xGSpencer 23', 0.13 xGBair 45+3', 0.13 xGSpencer 27', 0.08 xGSpittal 52', 0.08 xGSpittal 69', 0.05 xGSpittal 90+9', 0.04 xGCasey 25', 0.03 xGShaw 32', 0.02 xGCasey 44', 0.02 xGL. Ross 90+4', 0.60 xG, goalWilkinson 88', 0.09 xG, goal57%0.89 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.89 xG, 1 goal31%0.48 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.48 xG, 1 goal11%0.17 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals1%0.02 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Ross County

Murray 62', 0.34 xGLoturi 83', 0.26 xGLeak 8', 0.20 xGLoturi 35', 0.18 xGTurner 62', 0.17 xGRandall 6', 0.04 xGSamuel 81', 0.04 xGTurner 86', 0.03 xGTurner 54', 0.02 xGAllardice 59', 0.02 xGBrophy 11', 0.01 xGLoturi 83', 0.51 xG, goalBrophy 65', 0.05 xG, goalMurray 73', 0.03 xG, goal55%1.06 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 1.06 xG, 1 goal33%0.63 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.63 xG, 0 goals6%0.12 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.12 xG, 1 goal5%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.09 xG, 1 goal1%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

MotherwellRoss County

1.10 7 shots, 2 goalsOpen play1.67 11 shots, 3 goals
0.46 5 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.25 3 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
73 min (72%) · Motherwell 0.82, Ross County 1.04 xG
Ross County ahead
29 min (28%) · Motherwell 1.52, Ross County 0.88 xG

Line-ups

12165152281271814KellyO'DonnellMcGinnMugabiCaseySpencerSlatteryPatonSpittalShawBairYellow cardYellow card75'75'87'61'Motherwell 5-3-2Stuart Kettlewell14542161426101527LaidlawBrownBaldwinLeakHarmonLoturiRandallAllardiceDhandaMurrayBrophyGoalYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoal89'74'46'74'74'Ross County 4-3-1-2Malky Mackay

Motherwell substitutes

  • 61' Wilkinson for Bair · goal 88'
  • 75' Gent for Spencer
  • 75' Biereth for O'Donnell · goal 79' (pen), 1 assist
  • 87' L. Ross for Shaw

Ross County substitutes

  • 46' Turner for Dhanda · 1 assist
  • 74' High for Allardice
  • 74' Samuel for Brophy
  • 74' White for Murray
  • 89' Smith for Randall

Players

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KellyGK900.000.0000.0220
O'DonnellRWB750.290.1920.3495
McGinnCB900.000.1610.2275
MugabiCB900.000.0000.0338
CaseyCB9010.040.1010.2244
Spencer LWB750.220.0300.1991
Slattery CM900.000.072−0.0412
PatonCM900.000.0400.0335
SpittalCM900.170.1020.1970
ShawST870.020.050−0.0130
BairST610.130.031−0.1512
WilkinsonFW2910.090.0100.0721
GentMF150.000.0000.0111
BierethFW15110.790.0210.0200
L. RossFW30.600.0100.0011

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LaidlawGK900.000.0000.0110
BrownRB900.000.1210.1655
BaldwinCB900.000.0510.2266
LeakCB900.200.0100.09710
HarmonLB9010.000.0210.0882
Loturi CM9010.960.0920.1833
RandallCM890.040.0000.0005
Allardice CM740.020.0100.0045
DhandaAM460.000.0710.1122
MurrayST7410.380.0220.0014
BrophyST7410.060.0100.0130
TurnerMF4410.220.0520.0641
HighMF160.000.0000.0011
SamuelFW160.040.011−0.0500
WhiteFW160.000.0000.0100
SmithDF10.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Motherwell

Kelly and McGinn: 4 passesKelly and Spencer: 4 passesO'Donnell and Paton: 4 passesCasey and Slattery: 4 passesMugabi and McGinn: 4 passesMcGinn and Slattery: 4 passesSpencer and Slattery: 4 passesPaton and Bair: 4 passesShaw and Bair: 4 passesO'Donnell and Bair: 5 passesMugabi and Paton: 5 passesMcGinn and Spittal: 5 passesSpencer and Shaw: 5 passesO'Donnell and Shaw: 6 passesCasey and Mugabi: 6 passesCasey and Spencer: 6 passesSpencer and Paton: 6 passesSpencer and Spittal: 6 passesPaton and Spittal: 6 passesCasey and Paton: 7 passesSpittal and Bair: 7 passesSpencer and Bair: 8 passesSlattery and Spittal: 8 passesO'Donnell and McGinn: 11 passesO'Donnell and Slattery: 12 passesKelly: 10 completed passesO'Donnell: 26 completed passesCasey: 20 completed passesMugabi: 16 completed passesMcGinn: 18 completed passesSpencer: 22 completed passesPaton: 21 completed passesSlattery: 18 completed passesSpittal: 17 completed passesShaw: 10 completed passesBair: 14 completed passes12155162212871814KellyO'DonnellCaseyMugabiMcGinnSpencerPatonSlatterySpittalShawBairStarters until 61' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Ross County

Brown and Leak: 4 passesBaldwin and Harmon: 4 passesBaldwin and Loturi: 4 passesLeak and Loturi: 4 passesLeak and Dhanda: 4 passesLoturi and Dhanda: 4 passesLoturi and Brophy: 4 passesDhanda and Murray: 4 passesBaldwin and Randall: 5 passesLeak and Allardice: 5 passesHarmon and Loturi: 5 passesMurray and Brophy: 5 passesBaldwin and Allardice: 6 passesAllardice and Dhanda: 6 passesBrown and Randall: 8 passesHarmon and Dhanda: 8 passesLaidlaw and Baldwin: 9 passesBrown and Baldwin: 11 passesBrown and Loturi: 12 passesBaldwin and Leak: 12 passesLaidlaw and Leak: 18 passesLeak and Harmon: 18 passesLaidlaw: 18 completed passesBrown: 22 completed passesBaldwin: 33 completed passesLeak: 36 completed passesHarmon: 25 completed passesRandall: 8 completed passesAllardice: 13 completed passesLoturi: 16 completed passesDhanda: 17 completed passesMurray: 7 completed passesBrophy: 8 completed passes14542162614101527LaidlawBrownBaldwinLeakHarmonRandallAllardiceLoturiDhandaMurrayBrophyStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Motherwell

FromToPasses
CaseyPaton7
SlatteryO'Donnell7
SpittalSlattery6
O'DonnellMcGinn6
O'DonnellSlattery6

Ross County

FromToPasses
LeakHarmon14
LoturiBrown12
LeakLaidlaw12
BaldwinBrown9
BrownRandall9

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Motherwell

3−3.04−4.54−2.64−2.27−0.85−2.86−3.03−5.66−0.17+0.410+4.15+1.24−0.911+5.19+3.25+1.01−2.03−1.06+1.14+2.11−0.80−1.54+2.80−1.94+3.00−0.81+0.20−0.92+1.18−8.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 8 matches

Ross County

3−2.28+1.910−1.98−2.68+3.47−2.012+6.54−1.98−0.617+6.82−3.65−1.02−1.43−1.41−3.94−1.52−2.92−1.48+4.14−1.12−1.21−1.40−1.20−2.25+2.81−0.60−0.60−1.00−0.40−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 8 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Motherwell

0.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.050.020.020.020.070.050.020.010.010.020.160.010.040.09−0.150.10−0.050.280.31LessMore

Ross County

0.010.010.020.010.030.020.060.030.02−0.010.040.050.030.010.010.010.080.07−0.010.030.03−0.090.150.140.14LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackMotherwell1.13 → 1.15Ross County1.02 → 1.03Defence (lower is better)Motherwell1.33 → 1.35Ross County1.51 → 1.53

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Motherwell
Top six55%49%−6
11th5%5%0
Bottom2%2%0
Ross County
Top six15%16%+1
11th19%18%−1
Bottom17%17%0
Dundee FC
Top six12%12%0
11th21%22%+1
Bottom27%27%0

From the forecast before the match (28 October 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

MotherwellRoss County
Expected goals1.580.94
Win52%22%
Expected Points1.810.92
Clean sheet39%21%

Motherwell 52%Draw 26%Ross County 22%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 49%.

Ross County goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+9%7%4%1%6%2%4%1%5%5%2%2%2%12%13%10%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 28 October 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowMotherwell winDrawRoss County win
Motherwell
Top six55%64%49%42%
11th5%3%5%7%
Bottom2%1%2%3%
Ross County
Top six15%11%16%24%
11th19%22%18%15%
Bottom17%21%17%10%
Dundee FC
Top six12%12%12%13%
11th21%20%22%20%
Bottom27%25%27%29%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Motherwell

  1. L0–27 OctLivingston (A)xG 0.06–2.59
  2. L1–230 SepCeltic (H)xG 0.82–1.68
  3. L0–124 SepRangers (A)xG 0.72–1.00
  4. L0–116 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.18–0.55
  5. W1–03 SepHearts (A)xG 1.14–1.51
  6. W2–126 AugKilmarnock (H)xG 2.15–1.05

Ross County

  1. D0–024 OctDundee FC (A)xG 0.32–0.96
  2. L0–130 SepHearts (H)xG 0.40–0.98
  3. L0–424 SepAberdeen (A)xG 0.85–3.33
  4. D1–116 SepLivingston (H)xG 0.87–0.17
  5. W1–02 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 0.72–1.42
  6. L0–226 AugRangers (H)xG 0.48–1.96

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

MotherwellRoss County
Position6th11th
Played88
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠1–⁠42–⁠2–⁠4
Points10 (1.25 per game)8 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.080.94
Goals7–⁠96–⁠12
xG per game0.93–⁠1.350.92–⁠1.68
Home: points, xG per game1.50, 1.19–⁠1.031.00, 1.09–⁠0.90
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 0.67–⁠1.681.00, 0.75–⁠2.46
ManagerStuart Kettlewell (22)Malky Mackay (84)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackMotherwell1.13, 7thRoss County1.02, 10thDefence (lower is better)Motherwell1.33, 5thRoss County1.51, 11th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctMotherwell attack: 1.13Ross County attack: 1.021.131.02Ross CountyMotherwellDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctMotherwell defence: 1.33Ross County defence: 1.511.511.33

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

MotherwellRoss County
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−19%average−23%+15%
Counter-attacks−55%+5%−75%+191%
Set pieces−55%−16%−12%−4%
Penalties−20%+59%−100%+59%
Headers−67%+32%−15%−29%
Left side−16%+18%+11%+3%
Centre−37%−25%−39%+46%
Right side−34%+16%−25%−2%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdRoss County concededLeft side−16%−2%Centre−37%+46%Right side−34%+3%Open play−19%+15%Counter-attacks−55%+191%Set pieces−55%−4%Headers−67%−29%

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdMotherwell concededLeft side+11%+16%Centre−39%−25%Right side−25%+18%Open play−23%averageCounter-attacks−75%+5%Set pieces−12%−16%Headers−15%+32%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

MotherwellRoss County

0.93xG0.92
1.35xG against1.68
45%Possession42%
10.8Shots10.5
14.0Shots against15.0
4.2Shots on target3.5
1.1Big chances1.9
19.2Touches in the opposition box18.7
353Passes313
68%Pass accuracy61%
5.2Corners5.0
47%Field tilt45%
31.0Final-third entries30.0
10.1Box entries9.1
16.8Passes per defensive action15.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level530.970.97
Ahead140.502.69
Behind241.091.46

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level490.941.13
Ahead121.441.31
Behind290.652.79

xG by period

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.030.140–1
16–300.180.161–1
31–450.120.121–0
46–600.110.341–2
61–750.140.211–2
76–900.350.383–3

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.200.120–0
16–300.170.360–5
31–450.080.471–2
46–600.220.264–2
61–750.100.200–3
76–900.160.271–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Motherwell

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWKelly 8McGinn 7Mugabi 8Casey 8Blaney 1O'Donnell 8Slattery 4Miller 4Paton 4Spittal 3Spencer 1Spencer 5Souaré 2Miller 1Miller 3Slattery 3Paton 1Bair 4Wilkinson 2Slattery 1Bair 4Spittal 43-4-3 in 4 of 8 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (4), 3-5-2 (3), 5-4-1 (1)

Ross County

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTLaidlaw 8Nightingale 5Dhanda 1Smith 1Baldwin 8Leak 7Harmon 1Brown 8Randall 7Turner 4Loturi 3Dhanda 2Reid 3Purrington 2Harmon 2Dhanda 3Sims 2Loturi 1White 8Murray 7Dhanda 13-4-1-2 in 4 of 8 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (4), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
20 May 2023Motherwell1–0Ross CountyxG 1.47–0.29
4 March 2023Ross County0–2MotherwellxG 1.19–1.42
14 January 2023Motherwell1–1Ross CountyxG 0.82–1.23
4 October 2022Ross County0–5MotherwellxG 0.52–2.58
7 May 2022Ross County0–1MotherwellxG 0.72–1.22
2 March 2022Motherwell0–1Ross CountyxG 1.17–1.05

12 league meetings since 2020/21: Motherwell won 7, Ross County won 4, and 1 was a draw. Goals 20–10 and xG 1.45–1.07 per game.

Key players

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Spittal8720120.200.22
Slattery8701100.230.10
Bair8607100.120.04
Paton5489100.080.06

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Murray7520200.300.06
White8645100.240.04
Dhanda8565020.020.23
Brown8715100.030.11

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.