Digressive Celts

Matches › 2021/22

Ross County 2–3 St. Mirren

Saturday 16 October 2021, 15:00 · Global Energy Stadium · Round 9 · Half-time 1–3 · Attendance 3,882

Ross County Spittal 37', Iacovitti 66'

St. Mirren Brophy 15', Fraser 34', Tanser 38'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Ross CountySt. Mirren
Goals23
xG1.151.10
Expected Points1.371.32

Ross County 35%Draw 32%St. Mirren 33%

Most likely score 1–1, 16%. Final score 2–3, 1%.

St. Mirren goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+10%6%2%11%8%3%6%8%5%1%2%3%2%12%16%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTWhite on for A. Samuel and B. Paton on for Burroughs, 56'Hungbo on for Cancola, 71'Flynn on for Erhahon, 68'Tait on for Tanser, 73'Main on for McGrath, 74'Spittal 37'Iacovitti 66'Brophy 15'Fraser 34'Tanser 38'Ross County 1.15St. Mirren 1.1000.511.50153045607590HTWhite on for A. Samuel and B. Paton on for Burroughs, 56'Hungbo on for Cancola, 71'Flynn on for Erhahon, 68'Tait on for Tanser, 73'Main on for McGrath, 74'Spittal 37'Iacovitti 66'Brophy 15'Fraser 34'Tanser 38'1.151.10Ross CountySt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Ross CountySt. Mirren

1.15 +0.28xG1.10 +0.06
1.14 +0.48xG on target1.29 +0.26
20 +10.8Shots15 +4.5
5 +1.5Shots on target5 +1.9
0 −1.1Big chances2 +0.9
21 +1Touches in the opposition box20 +6
56% +18Possession44% −2
416 +118Passes335 +17
71% +5Pass accuracy67% 0
55% +20Field tilt45% +2
38 +12Final-third entries39 +11
13 +5.2Box entries11 +1.9
23.3 +4Passes per defensive action14.6 +1
5 +2.1Corners3 −1.8
9 −6Tackles10 −4
5 −5.9Interceptions15 +6.0
10 −18Clearances25 +8
2 −1.8Saves3 −0.1
5 −8Fouls14 +2
3 +0.9Offsides4 +0.6

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Ross County

A. Samuel 27', 0.14 xGCallachan 31', 0.13 xGClarke 56', 0.12 xGA. Samuel 43', 0.08 xGBaldwin 10', 0.07 xGSpittal 55', 0.06 xGClarke 60', 0.05 xGSpittal 71', 0.05 xGHungbo 80', 0.05 xGWhite 63', 0.04 xGCharles-Cook 86', 0.04 xGCharles-Cook 51', 0.03 xGCharles-Cook 58', 0.03 xGCallachan 78', 0.03 xGH. Paton 79', 0.03 xGCallachan 48', 0.02 xGCharles-Cook 64', 0.02 xGCallachan 10', 0.01 xGIacovitti 66', 0.10 xG, goalSpittal 37', 0.06 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals60%0.68 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.68 xG, 1 goal13%0.15 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals25%0.29 xGEdge of the box: 7 shots, 0.29 xG, 1 goal2%0.02 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Brophy 49', 0.15 xGRonan 50', 0.13 xGTanser 53', 0.10 xGMillar 18', 0.05 xGTanser 33', 0.03 xGRonan 44', 0.03 xGBrophy 47', 0.03 xGBrophy 13', 0.02 xGPower 33', 0.02 xGPower 52', 0.02 xGBrophy 75', 0.02 xGBrophy 90+4', 0.02 xGFraser 34', 0.22 xG, goalTanser 38', 0.22 xG, goalBrophy 15', 0.04 xG, goal20%0.22 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.22 xG, 1 goal54%0.59 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.59 xG, 1 goal14%0.15 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.15 xG, 1 goal6%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals6%0.07 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Ross CountySt. Mirren

0.77 13 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.77 10 shots, 2 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.03 1 shot, 0 goals
0.38 7 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.29 4 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
15 min (16%) · Ross County 0.07, St. Mirren 0.07 xG
St. Mirren ahead
79 min (84%) · Ross County 1.07, St. Mirren 1.03 xG

Line-ups

3120516184687917Maynard-BrewerClarkeBaldwinIacovittiBurroughsCancolaH. PatonCallachanSpittalA. SamuelCharles-CookGoalYellow cardGoal56'71'56'Ross County 4-3-3Malky Mackay145224461637439AlnwickShaughnessyMcCarthyFraserMillarPowerErhahonTanserMcGrathRonanBrophyGoalGoalGoal68'73'74'St. Mirren 3-4-2-1Jim Goodwin

Ross County substitutes

  • 56' B. Paton for Burroughs
  • 56' White for A. Samuel
  • 71' Hungbo for Cancola

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 68' Flynn for Erhahon · yellow card 71'
  • 73' Tait for Tanser
  • 74' Main for McGrath

Players

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
Maynard-BrewerGK900.000.0000.0441
ClarkeRB9010.170.2320.2783
BaldwinCB900.070.0200.1093
IacovittiCB9010.100.0600.0725
BurroughsLB560.000.0100.0131
CancolaCM710.000.0000.0002
H. PatonCM900.030.3370.25112
Callachan CM900.190.0810.0722
SpittalRW9010.170.1550.0731
A. SamuelST560.220.010−0.0400
Charles-CookLW900.130.0400.0531
B. PatonDF340.000.0800.1464
WhiteFW340.040.010−0.0100
HungboFW190.050.0210.0310

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
AlnwickGK9010.000.0110.0332
ShaughnessyCB900.000.0000.00111
McCarthyCB900.000.0000.04411
FraserCB9010.220.0100.0569
MillarRWB900.050.1120.2055
PowerCM900.040.0100.0349
ErhahonCM6810.000.0320.1062
TanserLWB73110.350.1410.0131
McGrathAM740.000.2240.1173
RonanAM900.160.0320.0671
BrophyST9010.280.0100.0930
Flynn MF220.000.000−0.0103
TaitDF170.000.0000.0103
MainFW160.000.0210.0110

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Ross County

Maynard-Brewer and Iacovitti: 3 passesBaldwin and Callachan: 3 passesIacovitti and Cancola: 3 passesBurroughs and Charles-Cook: 3 passesCancola and H. Paton: 3 passesCallachan and Spittal: 3 passesCallachan and A. Samuel: 3 passesClarke and A. Samuel: 4 passesCancola and A. Samuel: 4 passesClarke and H. Paton: 5 passesBaldwin and Iacovitti: 5 passesH. Paton and Charles-Cook: 5 passesSpittal and A. Samuel: 5 passesMaynard-Brewer and A. Samuel: 6 passesClarke and Cancola: 6 passesBaldwin and H. Paton: 6 passesH. Paton and Callachan: 7 passesH. Paton and Spittal: 7 passesBaldwin and Cancola: 8 passesClarke and Charles-Cook: 9 passesIacovitti and Burroughs: 9 passesClarke and Spittal: 10 passesBurroughs and Cancola: 10 passesBurroughs and H. Paton: 10 passesClarke and Baldwin: 11 passesMaynard-Brewer: 10 completed passesClarke: 27 completed passesBaldwin: 19 completed passesIacovitti: 11 completed passesBurroughs: 21 completed passesCancola: 21 completed passesH. Paton: 24 completed passesCallachan: 8 completed passesSpittal: 14 completed passesA. Samuel: 11 completed passesCharles-Cook: 10 completed passes3120516184687917Maynard-BrewerClarkeBaldwinIacovittiBurroughsCancolaH. PatonCallachanSpittalA. SamuelCharles-CookStarters until 56' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

St. Mirren

McCarthy and Power: 4 passesPower and Erhahon: 4 passesMcCarthy and Ronan: 5 passesMillar and Power: 5 passesAlnwick and McCarthy: 6 passesMcCarthy and Fraser: 6 passesFraser and McGrath: 6 passesShaughnessy and McCarthy: 7 passesFraser and Erhahon: 7 passesTanser and Ronan: 7 passesPower and McGrath: 7 passesPower and Ronan: 7 passesErhahon and McGrath: 7 passesTanser and McGrath: 8 passesMcGrath and Ronan: 8 passesAlnwick and Shaughnessy: 9 passesFraser and Power: 9 passesMillar and McGrath: 9 passesMillar and Ronan: 9 passesFraser and Ronan: 10 passesErhahon and Ronan: 10 passesAlnwick: 10 completed passesShaughnessy: 12 completed passesMcCarthy: 23 completed passesFraser: 24 completed passesMillar: 13 completed passesTanser: 15 completed passesPower: 19 completed passesErhahon: 22 completed passesMcGrath: 27 completed passesRonan: 26 completed passesBrophy: 5 completed passes145224436167439AlnwickShaughnessyMcCarthyFraserMillarTanserPowerErhahonMcGrathRonanBrophyStarters until 68' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Ross County

FromToPasses
ClarkeSpittal11
BaldwinClarke11
H. PatonClarke10
B. PatonCharles-Cook9
ClarkeBaldwin7

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
ShaughnessyAlnwick8
ErhahonRonan8
FraserMcCarthy6
McGrathRonan6
McCarthyShaughnessy6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Ross County

5−0.87+2.14−4.84−4.19−0.25−3.01−6.25−3.812+6.41−5.53−1.92−1.80−4.46+0.42−2.53+0.24+1.63+0.55+1.40−2.43+1.10−0.52+0.61−0.50−1.000.00−0.40−0.10−0.81−16.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 8 matches

St. Mirren

7+3.24−2.918+3.89+3.67+1.918+10.89+2.42−4.69+2.69+2.210+3.94−1.03−1.25+0.86−0.61−3.92−1.12−0.21−2.56+2.92−0.41−1.12+0.62+0.21−0.80−1.20−0.10−1.01+1.01+0.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 8 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Ross County

0.030.030.030.010.010.020.030.020.010.010.060.030.010.070.100.040.060.080.12−0.020.070.070.18LessMore

St. Mirren

0.020.020.030.070.030.010.010.020.020.030.010.030.090.03−0.010.040.100.020.020.02−0.020.15LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.15AttackRoss County0.91 → 0.94St. Mirren0.97 → 1.00Defence (lower is better)Ross County1.54 → 1.58St. Mirren1.28 → 1.31

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Ross County
Top six2%1%−1
11th31%32%+1
Bottom35%42%+7
St. Mirren
Top six25%33%+8
11th8%5%−3
Bottom3%1%−2
Dundee FC
Top six2%2%0
11th25%28%+3
Bottom47%43%−4
St. Johnstone
Top six47%45%−2
11th3%3%0

From the forecast before the match (16 October 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Ross CountySt. Mirren
Expected goals1.181.20
Win35%36%
Expected Points1.341.37
Clean sheet30%31%

Ross County 35%Draw 29%St. Mirren 36%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 49%.

St. Mirren goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+7%3%8%3%1%6%8%5%2%3%3%2%10%10%10%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 16 October 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowRoss County winDrawSt. Mirren win
Ross County
Top six2%3%2%1%
11th31%29%30%32%
Bottom35%27%36%42%
St. Mirren
Top six25%17%23%33%
11th8%11%8%5%
Bottom3%5%3%1%
Dundee FC
Top six2%2%3%2%
11th25%22%25%28%
Bottom47%51%46%43%
St. Johnstone
Top six47%49%49%45%
11th3%4%3%3%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Ross County

  1. L0–12 OctDundee United (A)xG 0.90–1.26
  2. L1–225 SepMotherwell (A)xG 0.79–0.85
  3. D2–218 SepHearts (H)xG 1.44–1.21
  4. L0–311 SepCeltic (A)xG 0.45–2.71
  5. D1–129 AugAberdeen (A)xG 1.15–2.94
  6. L2–422 AugRangers (H)xG 1.44–2.40

St. Mirren

  1. W1–02 OctLivingston (A)xG 0.77–1.03
  2. W3–226 SepAberdeen (H)xG 1.50–1.11
  3. D2–218 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.82–2.10
  4. D0–011 SepDundee United (H)xG 0.72–1.20
  5. D0–029 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.72–0.81
  6. L0–621 AugCeltic (A)xG 0.23–4.93

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Ross CountySt. Mirren
Position11th7th
Played88
Won, drawn, lost0–⁠3–⁠52–⁠4–⁠2
Points3 (0.38 per game)10 (1.25 per game)
Expected Points per game0.731.22
Goals6–⁠169–⁠14
xG per game0.87–⁠1.831.04–⁠1.59
Home: points, xG per game0.67, 1.06–⁠1.761.25, 1.17–⁠0.90
Away: points, xG per game0.20, 0.75–⁠1.881.25, 0.91–⁠2.29
ManagerMalky Mackay (8)Jim Goodwin (46)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.15AttackRoss County0.91, 9thSt. Mirren0.97, 8thDefence (lower is better)Ross County1.54, 12thSt. Mirren1.28, 9th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctRoss County attack: 0.91St. Mirren attack: 0.970.970.91St. MirrenRoss CountyDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctRoss County defence: 1.54St. Mirren defence: 1.281.541.28

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Ross CountySt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−15%+65%−43%+39%
Counter-attacks−100%+23%+75%+111%
Set pieces−64%+33%+40%+6%
Penalties−20%−20%−20%−20%
Headers−42%+89%+19%−34%
Left side−26%+76%−31%+34%
Centre−43%+40%−6%+34%
Right side−11%+67%−23%+34%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−26%+34%Centre−43%+34%Right side−11%+34%Open play−15%+39%Counter-attacks−100%+111%Set pieces−64%+6%Headers−42%−34%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdRoss County concededLeft side−31%+67%Centre−6%+40%Right side−23%+76%Open play−43%+65%Counter-attacks+75%+23%Set pieces+40%+33%Headers+19%+89%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Ross CountySt. Mirren

0.87xG1.04
1.83xG against1.59
38%Possession46%
9.2Shots10.5
17.0Shots against15.8
3.5Shots on target3.1
1.1Big chances1.1
20.0Touches in the opposition box14.0
298Passes318
66%Pass accuracy67%
2.9Corners4.8
35%Field tilt43%
26.2Final-third entries28.1
7.8Box entries9.1
19.7Passes per defensive action13.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level460.821.58
Ahead100.622.39
Behind351.002.02

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.121.09
Ahead191.161.81
Behind250.782.36

xG by period

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.201–3
16–300.040.280–3
31–450.230.244–2
46–600.050.200–1
61–750.200.400–3
76–900.230.511–4

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.060.152–0
16–300.130.271–5
31–450.150.391–3
46–600.190.212–2
61–750.150.441–3
76–900.350.142–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Ross County

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTLaidlaw 5Maynard-Brewer 3Baldwin 4Charles-Cook 2Donaldson 2Clarke 3Watson 2Iacovitti 7H. Paton 1Burroughs 1Randall 4Burroughs 2Clarke 1Tillson 6H. Paton 2Callachan 1Spittal 5Charles-Cook 1Cancola 1B. Paton 4Charles-Cook 3Burroughs 1Callachan 5Tillson 2H. Paton 1White 7A. Samuel 1Spittal 3Charles-Cook 2Hungbo 13-4-1-2 in 2 of 8 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (2), 4-3-3 (1), 4-5-1 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBDMRWBCMCMLWBSTSTAlnwick 8Fraser 8Shaughnessy 8McCarthy 5Dunne 3Millar 3McGrath 2Erhahon 1Ronan 3McGrath 1Millar 1Erhahon 4McGrath 3Reid 2Power 6Tanser 8Main 5McGrath 2Brophy 7Ronan 1Kiltie 13-1-4-2 in 4 of 8 starts

Formations: 3-1-4-2 (4), 3-4-1-2 (2), 3-4-2-1 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
21 April 2021Ross County1–3St. MirrenxG 0.65–2.23
27 February 2021St. Mirren1–0Ross CountyxG 1.41–1.91
26 December 2020Ross County0–2St. MirrenxG 0.54–1.79
22 August 2020St. Mirren1–1Ross CountyxG 1.31–2.21

4 league meetings since 2020/21: Ross County won 0, St. Mirren won 3, and 1 was a draw. Goals 2–7 and xG 1.33–1.69 per game.

Key players

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Spittal8664200.160.15
Callachan7624000.220.05
White7647110.190.04
Charles-Cook8617210.090.13

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
McGrath8720110.150.20
Tanser8720020.070.24
Main5505110.230.02
Shaughnessy8720200.180.02

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.