Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

St. Mirren 4–0 St. Johnstone

Saturday 28 October 2023, 15:00 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 10 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee David Dickinson · Attendance 5,552

St. Mirren Baccus 36', Mandron 48', 70', Kiltie 90'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenSt. Johnstone
Goals40
xG1.520.74
Expected Points2.000.72

St. Mirren 58%Draw 27%St. Johnstone 15%

Most likely score 1–0, 17%. Final score 4–0, 1%.

St. Johnstone goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+8%6%2%5%1%11%4%6%5%2%1%1%17%15%14%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTOlusanya on for McMenamin, 61'Boyd-Munce on for Baccus, 77'Dunne on for Taylor, Bolton on for Flynn, and Greive on for Mandron, 87'MacPherson on for Smith and Kane on for Brown, 55'May on for Clark and Turner-Cooke on for Kucheriavyi, 65'Gallacher on for Jaiyesimi, 73'Baccus 36'Mandron 48'Mandron 70'Kiltie 90'St. Mirren 1.52St. Johnstone 0.7400.511.520153045607590HTOlusanya on for McMenamin, 61'Boyd-Munce on for Baccus, 77'Dunne on for Taylor, Bolton on for Flynn, and Greive on for Mandron, 87'MacPherson on for Smith and Kane on for Brown, 55'May on for Clark and Turner-Cooke on for Kucheriavyi, 65'Gallacher on for Jaiyesimi, 73'Baccus 36'Mandron 48'Mandron 70'Kiltie 90'1.520.74St. MirrenSt. Johnstone

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenSt. Johnstone

1.52 +0.47xG0.74 +0.07
2.63 +1.38xG on target0.35 −0.14
10 +0.5Shots13 +4.1
5 +1.6Shots on target3 +1.2
3 +0.6Big chances0 −1.0
18 +3Touches in the opposition box26 +10
46% +4Possession54% +12
346 +47Passes393 +66
68% +7Pass accuracy68% +5
40% +1Field tilt60% +25
28 −1Final-third entries29 +4
11 +2.0Box entries9 +1.2
23.3 +7Passes per defensive action17.1 +1
4 −0.1Corners7 +2.9
10 −4Tackles21 +5
9 +0.4Interceptions10 −0.4
35 +9Clearances18 −6
3 +0.2Saves1 −3.2
9 −2Fouls5 −8
1 −0.9Offsides0 −1.8

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Olusanya 89', 0.15 xGBaccus 42', 0.07 xGTanser 67', 0.07 xGMandron 46', 0.06 xGOlusanya 82', 0.05 xGBaccus 40', 0.02 xGMandron 70', 0.49 xG, goalKiltie 90', 0.39 xG, goalMandron 48', 0.18 xG, goalBaccus 36', 0.04 xG, goal26%0.39 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.39 xG, 1 goal67%1.02 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 1.02 xG, 2 goals5%0.07 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals3%0.04 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

St. Johnstone

Costelloe 64', 0.14 xGBrown 53', 0.09 xGCostelloe 30', 0.08 xGJaiyesimi 43', 0.08 xGJaiyesimi 72', 0.08 xGMacPherson 78', 0.07 xGKane 82', 0.04 xGClark 7', 0.03 xGTurner-Cooke 68', 0.03 xGKane 77', 0.03 xGClark 28', 0.02 xGGordon 34', 0.02 xGSmith 50', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals72%0.53 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.53 xG, 0 goals11%0.08 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.08 xG, 0 goals15%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals3%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenSt. Johnstone

0.90 7 shots, 3 goalsOpen play0.67 11 shots, 0 goals
0.49 1 shot, 1 goalCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.12 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.06 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
36 min (40%) · St. Mirren 0.04, St. Johnstone 0.15 xG
St. Mirren ahead
55 min (60%) · St. Mirren 1.48, St. Johnstone 0.58 xG

Line-ups

1221358176310119HemmingFraserGogicTaylorFlynnBaccusO'HaraTanserMcMenaminKiltieMandronGoalYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoalGoal87'87'77'61'87'St. Mirren 3-4-2-1Stephen Robinson146192222315134410MitovConsidineGordonRobinsonBrownSmithSpranglerKucheriavyiJaiyesimiCostelloeClark55'55'65'73'65'St. Johnstone 3-5-2Steven MacLean

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 61' Olusanya for McMenamin · 1 assist
  • 77' Boyd-Munce for Baccus
  • 87' Dunne for Taylor
  • 87' Bolton for Flynn
  • 87' Greive for Mandron

St. Johnstone substitutes

  • 55' MacPherson for Smith
  • 55' Kane for Brown
  • 65' Turner-Cooke for Kucheriavyi
  • 65' May for Clark
  • 73' Gallacher for Jaiyesimi

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HemmingGK900.000.0000.0450
FraserCB900.000.0100.0566
GogicCB900.000.0000.07515
TaylorCB870.000.0000.03210
FlynnRWB870.000.0520.0221
Baccus CM7710.130.0100.0163
O'Hara CM900.000.2110.1833
TanserLWB900.070.0810.0557
McMenaminAM610.000.020−0.0311
KiltieAM90110.390.1520.1042
MandronST8720.730.0300.0125
OlusanyaFW2910.200.1610.1120
Boyd-MunceMF130.000.0000.0002
DunneDF30.000.0000.0111
BoltonDF30.000.0000.0001
GreiveFW30.000.0100.0010

St. Johnstone

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MitovGK900.000.0000.0321
ConsidineCB900.000.0100.0103
GordonCB900.020.0520.0836
RobinsonCB900.000.2920.31910
BrownRWB550.090.1110.1853
SmithCM550.020.0210.0622
SpranglerCM900.000.0200.05410
KucheriavyiCM650.000.030−0.0214
JaiyesimiLWB730.160.0310.0734
CostelloeST900.220.0700.0862
ClarkST650.050.0000.0001
MacPhersonMF350.070.0500.0333
KaneFW350.070.1410.0711
Turner-CookeMF250.030.0100.0100
MayFW250.000.000−0.0100
GallacherDF170.000.0100.0010

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

Hemming and Fraser: 3 passesTaylor and Fraser: 3 passesFraser and O'Hara: 3 passesFlynn and O'Hara: 3 passesTanser and Kiltie: 3 passesBaccus and Mandron: 3 passesO'Hara and Kiltie: 3 passesTaylor and O'Hara: 4 passesFraser and Baccus: 4 passesTanser and Mandron: 4 passesBaccus and O'Hara: 4 passesTaylor and Kiltie: 5 passesFraser and Flynn: 6 passesMandron and Kiltie: 6 passesHemming and Gogic: 7 passesFlynn and Baccus: 7 passesFlynn and McMenamin: 8 passesBaccus and McMenamin: 8 passesFraser and McMenamin: 9 passesGogic and Baccus: 10 passesTanser and O'Hara: 11 passesTaylor and Tanser: 15 passesGogic and Taylor: 19 passesGogic and Fraser: 19 passesHemming: 9 completed passesGogic: 37 completed passesTaylor: 28 completed passesFraser: 29 completed passesFlynn: 15 completed passesTanser: 19 completed passesBaccus: 19 completed passesO'Hara: 19 completed passesMcMenamin: 13 completed passesMandron: 9 completed passesKiltie: 10 completed passes1135228317610911HemmingGogicTaylorFraserFlynnTanserBaccusO'HaraMcMenaminMandronKiltieStarters until 61' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

St. Johnstone

Considine and Jaiyesimi: 3 passesGordon and Sprangler: 3 passesGordon and Smith: 3 passesBrown and Jaiyesimi: 3 passesSprangler and Kucheriavyi: 3 passesGordon and Costelloe: 4 passesRobinson and Costelloe: 4 passesBrown and Kucheriavyi: 4 passesJaiyesimi and Kucheriavyi: 4 passesSprangler and Costelloe: 4 passesConsidine and Gordon: 5 passesBrown and Costelloe: 5 passesSmith and Costelloe: 5 passesMitov and Considine: 6 passesKucheriavyi and Smith: 6 passesMitov and Gordon: 7 passesConsidine and Robinson: 7 passesRobinson and Kucheriavyi: 7 passesConsidine and Smith: 8 passesRobinson and Jaiyesimi: 8 passesRobinson and Smith: 8 passesJaiyesimi and Smith: 8 passesGordon and Brown: 10 passesMitov: 11 completed passesConsidine: 21 completed passesGordon: 15 completed passesRobinson: 22 completed passesBrown: 15 completed passesJaiyesimi: 11 completed passesSprangler: 11 completed passesKucheriavyi: 15 completed passesSmith: 20 completed passesCostelloe: 12 completed passesClark: 2 completed passes146192132315224410MitovConsidineGordonRobinsonBrownJaiyesimiSpranglerKucheriavyiSmithCostelloeClarkStarters until 55' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
GogicTaylor12
FraserGogic11
TaylorTanser11
TaylorGogic9
GogicFraser9

St. Johnstone

FromToPasses
GordonCostelloe11
RobinsonJaiyesimi7
ConsidineRobinson7
ConsidineMitov6
MitovGordon6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

7+2.49+0.226+11.05−3.63−2.18−0.211+2.58+2.46−4.06−2.211+5.14−2.63−0.510+2.570.08+4.84+1.22−0.15+1.90−4.12+0.50−1.62+1.81−0.50−2.51+0.10−0.20−0.90−0.21−0.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 8 matches

St. Johnstone

3−2.14−4.112−2.05−5.210+3.113+7.16−0.92−3.86−1.99−1.05−2.59+4.52−1.96+0.49+0.96+1.61−1.90−1.82−1.23−3.01−1.12+1.41−0.63+2.22−0.80−0.40−0.40−0.21+0.90−1.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 8 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.010.020.020.020.030.020.010.010.040.030.01−0.010.010.020.030.030.070.040.14−0.01−0.04−0.05−0.020.22LessMore

St. Johnstone

0.020.010.020.010.010.020.040.050.010.020.020.020.02−0.010.010.050.030.090.040.020.030.100.020.050.24LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackSt. Mirren1.07 → 1.10St. Johnstone0.95 → 0.94Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.40 → 1.38St. Johnstone1.47 → 1.50

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six62%71%+9
11th3%2%−1
Bottom2%1%−1
St. Johnstone
Top six6%3%−3
11th23%24%+1
Bottom38%43%+5
Dundee FC
Top six12%12%0
11th21%22%+1
Bottom27%25%−2
Ross County
Top six15%15%0
11th19%20%+1
Bottom17%16%−1

From the forecast before the match (28 October 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenSt. Johnstone
Expected goals1.460.92
Win49%23%
Expected Points1.750.97
Clean sheet40%23%

St. Mirren 49%Draw 28%St. Johnstone 23%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 47%.

St. Johnstone goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+8%4%1%6%2%9%4%1%5%4%2%2%2%10%13%13%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 28 October 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawSt. Johnstone win
St. Mirren
Top six62%71%58%49%
11th3%2%4%7%
Bottom2%1%2%3%
St. Johnstone
Top six6%3%6%12%
11th23%24%22%22%
Bottom38%43%38%26%
Dundee FC
Top six12%12%13%12%
11th21%22%20%19%
Bottom27%25%26%31%
Ross County
Top six15%15%15%16%
11th19%20%20%18%
Bottom17%16%18%20%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. L0–38 OctRangers (H)xG 0.03–2.05
  2. D1–130 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 0.79–0.73
  3. W1–023 SepHearts (H)xG 1.59–1.19
  4. W1–016 SepMotherwell (A)xG 0.55–1.18
  5. D1–12 SepLivingston (A)xG 0.67–1.45
  6. D2–227 AugAberdeen (H)xG 1.97–0.87

St. Johnstone

  1. D0–08 OctAberdeen (A)xG 0.33–1.01
  2. D1–130 SepLivingston (H)xG 0.62–0.98
  3. L0–223 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.62–2.78
  4. L0–216 SepRangers (H)xG 0.32–2.02
  5. D2–22 SepDundee FC (H)xG 1.75–1.44
  6. D0–026 AugCeltic (A)xG 0.28–2.02

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenSt. Johnstone
Position3rd12th
Played88
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠3–⁠10–⁠4–⁠4
Points15 (1.88 per game)4 (0.50 per game)
Expected Points per game1.120.60
Goals11–⁠103–⁠11
xG per game1.05–⁠1.400.67–⁠1.83
Home: points, xG per game1.75, 1.22–⁠1.600.50, 0.91–⁠1.55
Away: points, xG per game2.00, 0.89–⁠1.190.50, 0.43–⁠2.10
ManagerStephen Robinson (3)Steven MacLean (14)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackSt. Mirren1.07, 8thSt. Johnstone0.95, 12thDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.40, 9thSt. Johnstone1.47, 10th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctSt. Mirren attack: 1.07St. Johnstone attack: 0.951.070.95St. JohnstoneSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctSt. Mirren defence: 1.40St. Johnstone defence: 1.471.471.40

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenSt. Johnstone
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−34%−6%−52%+43%
Counter-attacks+23%−46%−80%+149%
Set pieces−31%−4%−18%+16%
Penalties+59%+139%−100%−20%
Headers+14%−27%−31%−9%
Left side−29%−3%−29%+25%
Centre−42%average−46%+21%
Right side−5%−33%−56%+111%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdSt. Johnstone concededLeft side−29%+111%Centre−42%+21%Right side−5%+25%Open play−34%+43%Counter-attacks+23%+149%Set pieces−31%+16%Headers+14%−9%

St. Johnstone attacking

St. Johnstone createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−29%−33%Centre−46%averageRight side−56%−3%Open play−52%−6%Counter-attacks−80%−46%Set pieces−18%−4%Headers−31%−27%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenSt. Johnstone

1.05xG0.67
1.40xG against1.83
42%Possession42%
9.5Shots8.9
11.8Shots against15.0
3.4Shots on target1.8
2.4Big chances1.0
14.8Touches in the opposition box16.5
299Passes327
62%Pass accuracy63%
4.1Corners4.1
39%Field tilt35%
29.4Final-third entries25.4
9.0Box entries7.8
16.7Passes per defensive action15.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level431.140.96
Ahead350.861.98
Behind111.341.24

St. Johnstone

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level560.541.38
Ahead30.643.39
Behind310.912.52

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.320.043–0
16–300.140.211–2
31–450.150.262–1
46–600.220.132–0
61–750.080.300–3
76–900.130.463–4

St. Johnstone

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.110–0
16–300.060.260–1
31–450.060.181–3
46–600.070.400–3
61–750.090.300–2
76–900.240.582–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWHemming 8Fraser 8Gogic 8Taylor 7Dunne 1Strain 8Baccus 7O'Hara 5Boyd-Munce 4Tanser 8McMenamin 8Olusanya 5Mandron 3Kiltie 83-4-3 in 5 of 8 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (5), 3-4-2-1 (2), 5-4-1 (1)

St. Johnstone

GKRBCBCBLBDMRMCMCMLMSTMitov 8Olufunwa 4Wright 2Brown 2McClelland 5Gordon 4Considine 6Robinson 1Robinson 5Considine 1Sprangler 1Sprangler 2Turner-Cooke 2McGowan 2Costelloe 3Wright 2Smith 1Phillips 6Kucheriavyi 3Ballantyne 2Smith 4MacPherson 1Carey 6Costelloe 1Jephcott 1May 4Jephcott 2Costelloe 14-1-4-1 in 3 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-1-4-1 (3), 4-4-1-1 (2), 4-2-3-1 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
25 February 2023St. Johnstone1–1St. MirrenxG 0.39–1.59
9 November 2022St. Mirren2–2St. JohnstonexG 0.87–1.19
3 September 2022St. Johnstone3–0St. MirrenxG 2.25–0.81
30 April 2022St. Johnstone0–1St. MirrenxG 0.25–0.87
9 February 2022St. Mirren2–1St. JohnstonexG 2.22–1.02
6 November 2021St. Johnstone0–0St. MirrenxG 0.18–0.76

10 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 3, St. Johnstone won 3, and 4 were drawn. Goals 9–11 and xG 1.05–1.10 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Strain8651110.170.15
Tanser8720110.030.27
Kiltie8629110.220.03
O'Hara5450110.170.07

St. Johnstone

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Carey8720010.020.19
McClelland5525000.080.01
Phillips7609010.040.01
Robinson6540010.010.04

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.