Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Rangers 2–1 Hearts

Sunday 29 October 2023, 15:00 · Ibrox Stadium · Round 10 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 49,530

Rangers Tavernier 90' (pen), Danilo 90+3'

Hearts Shankland 5'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

RangersHearts
Goals21
xG4.030.24
Non-penalty xG2.460.24
Expected Points2.980.01

Rangers 99%Draw 1%Hearts <1%

Most likely score 4–0, 21%. Final score 2–1, 2%.

Hearts goalsRangers goals0123456+0123456+2%8%2%5%6%4%12%3%18%21%16%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

02460153045607590HTDanilo on for Dessers, 46'Wright on for Raskin, 64'McCausland on for Cantwell, 76'Jack on for Lammers, 83'Kingsley on for Offiah, 39'Forrest on for Grant and Devlin on for Baningime, 61'Haring on for Nieuwenhof, 78'Halliday on for Sibbick, 79'Tavernier 90' (pen)Danilo 90+3'Shankland 5'Rangers 4.03Hearts 0.2402460153045607590HTDanilo on for Dessers, 46'Wright on for Raskin, 64'McCausland on for Cantwell, 76'Jack on for Lammers, 83'Kingsley on for Offiah, 39'Forrest on for Grant and Devlin on for Baningime, 61'Haring on for Nieuwenhof, 78'Halliday on for Sibbick, 79'Tavernier 90' (pen)Danilo 90+3'Shankland 5'4.030.24RangersHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

RangersHearts

4.03 +2.04xG0.24 −0.86
2.46Non-penalty xG0.24
1.35 −0.70xG on target0.13 −1.16
28 +9Shots5 −9
5 −1.7Shots on target1 −3.2
4 +0.6Big chances0 −1.2
53 +24Touches in the opposition box9 −19
69% +5Possession31% −29
609 +39Passes283 −201
85% +1Pass accuracy69% −7
85% +15Field tilt15% −45
75 +14Final-third entries18 −28
24 +8Box entries3 −12
7.5 −3Passes per defensive action31.7 +20
11 +5.0Corners2 −5.9
14 −1Tackles13 0
10 +2.8Interceptions7 −0.4
10 −4Clearances34 +16
0 −1.9Saves2 −0.8
6 −7Fouls13 +1
1 −1.2Offsides0 −1.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Rangers

Dessers 27', 0.64 xGLammers 57', 0.38 xGCantwell 12', 0.16 xGRaskin 60', 0.16 xGDessers 25', 0.11 xGCantwell 72', 0.10 xGGoldson 27', 0.09 xGLundstram 33', 0.07 xGYilmaz 56', 0.06 xGCantwell 57', 0.06 xGLammers 67', 0.06 xGSima 34', 0.05 xGCantwell 27', 0.04 xGLundstram 49', 0.04 xGLundstram 74', 0.04 xGWright 87', 0.04 xGDanilo 67', 0.03 xGTavernier 84', 0.03 xGSima 37', 0.02 xGLammers 38', 0.02 xGLundstram 48', 0.02 xGLundstram 51', 0.02 xGSima 58', 0.02 xGLundstram 81', 0.02 xGSima 90+2', 0.02 xGDanilo 90+3', 0.16 xG, goal42%1.04 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 1.04 xG, 0 goals38%0.93 xGCentral box: 10 shots, 0.93 xG, 1 goal2%0.04 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals16%0.40 xGEdge of the box: 10 shots, 0.40 xG, 0 goals2%0.04 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Vargas 33', 0.10 xGOffiah 32', 0.04 xGShankland 42', 0.01 xGHaring 90+4', 0.01 xGShankland 5', 0.08 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals50%0.12 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.12 xG, 1 goal46%0.11 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals4%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

RangersHearts

1.60 20 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.22 3 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.01 1 shot, 0 goals
0.85 6 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.01 1 shot, 0 goals
1.58 2 shots, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
8 min (8%) · Rangers 0.18, Hearts 0.08 xG
Rangers ahead
6 min (6%) · Rangers 0.00, Hearts 0.01 xG
Hearts ahead
89 min (86%) · Rangers 3.85, Hearts 0.15 xG

Line-ups

1262634431413199ButlandTavernierGoldsonDaviesYilmazLundstramRaskinLammersCantwellSimaDessersGoalYellow card64'83'76'46'Rangers 4-2-3-1Philippe Clement28212152986719977ClarkSibbickKentRowlesOffiahNieuwenhofBaningimeGrantCochraneShanklandVargasYellow cardYellow cardGoalYellow card79'39'78'61'61'Hearts 3-5-2Steven Naismith

Rangers substitutes

  • 46' Danilo for Dessers · goal 90+3'
  • 64' Wright for Raskin
  • 76' McCausland for Cantwell
  • 83' Jack for Lammers

Hearts substitutes

  • 39' Kingsley for Offiah
  • 61' Forrest for Grant · yellow card 90+7'
  • 61' Devlin for Baningime
  • 78' Haring for Nieuwenhof · yellow card 89'
  • 79' Halliday for Sibbick

Players

Rangers

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ButlandGK900.000.0000.0100
TavernierRB90111.610.3050.36147
GoldsonCB900.090.3210.15105
DaviesCB900.000.0100.0945
YilmazLB900.060.5440.28103
Lundstram DM900.210.1500.1971
RaskinDM640.160.0600.1352
LammersRW830.450.0900.0843
CantwellAM760.370.1610.35101
SimaLW900.100.3450.2795
DessersST460.750.3410.1800
DaniloFW4410.190.031−0.1011
WrightFW260.040.0300.0531
McCauslandMF140.000.0420.1021
JackMF70.000.0320.0430

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0100.0642
SibbickCB790.000.0000.0226
KentCB900.000.0000.02314
RowlesCB900.000.0000.04216
Offiah RWB390.040.0100.0114
NieuwenhofCM780.000.0010.0224
BaningimeCM610.000.010−0.0112
GrantCM610.000.0000.0001
Cochrane LWB9010.000.1020.2044
ShanklandST9010.090.4910.1424
Vargas ST900.100.090−0.0931
KingsleyDF510.000.0000.0004
Forrest MF290.000.0100.0101
DevlinMF290.000.0000.0110
Haring MF120.010.000−0.0701
HallidayMF110.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Rangers

Butland and Lundstram: 5 passesTavernier and Dessers: 5 passesButland and Davies: 6 passesTavernier and Raskin: 6 passesDavies and Raskin: 6 passesYilmaz and Lundstram: 6 passesRaskin and Lundstram: 6 passesRaskin and Sima: 6 passesLundstram and Lammers: 7 passesButland and Goldson: 8 passesGoldson and Lundstram: 8 passesLammers and Cantwell: 8 passesTavernier and Lammers: 9 passesYilmaz and Sima: 11 passesTavernier and Lundstram: 12 passesLundstram and Cantwell: 12 passesDavies and Goldson: 13 passesDavies and Yilmaz: 15 passesTavernier and Cantwell: 17 passesTavernier and Goldson: 18 passesButland: 17 completed passesTavernier: 37 completed passesDavies: 31 completed passesGoldson: 29 completed passesYilmaz: 27 completed passesRaskin: 20 completed passesLundstram: 32 completed passesLammers: 19 completed passesCantwell: 21 completed passesSima: 11 completed passesDessers: 6 completed passes1226634341413199ButlandTavernierDaviesGoldsonYilmazRaskinLundstramLammersCantwellSimaDessersStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Hearts

Clark and Sibbick: 3 passesClark and Shankland: 3 passesSibbick and Offiah: 3 passesSibbick and Vargas: 3 passesSibbick and Shankland: 3 passesOffiah and Baningime: 3 passesRowles and Baningime: 4 passesCochrane and Grant: 4 passesNieuwenhof and Baningime: 4 passesNieuwenhof and Shankland: 4 passesBaningime and Grant: 4 passesVargas and Shankland: 4 passesRowles and Kent: 5 passesOffiah and Nieuwenhof: 5 passesBaningime and Shankland: 5 passesRowles and Grant: 6 passesOffiah and Vargas: 6 passesSibbick and Baningime: 7 passesKent and Baningime: 8 passesCochrane and Shankland: 8 passesOffiah and Shankland: 10 passesRowles and Cochrane: 11 passesClark: 6 completed passesRowles: 13 completed passesKent: 11 completed passesSibbick: 9 completed passesOffiah: 17 completed passesCochrane: 15 completed passesNieuwenhof: 9 completed passesBaningime: 17 completed passesGrant: 12 completed passesVargas: 10 completed passesShankland: 17 completed passes28152212919867779ClarkRowlesKentSibbickOffiahCochraneNieuwenhofBaningimeGrantVargasShanklandStarters until 39' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Rangers

FromToPasses
GoldsonTavernier25
TavernierCantwell21
DaviesGoldson19
YilmazSima17
LundstramTavernier16

Hearts

FromToPasses
RowlesCochrane9
CochraneShankland8
OffiahShankland7
CochraneRowles7
ClarkShankland7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Rangers

2−2.42−2.45+0.71−3.810+4.25+0.66+2.26−2.610+2.04−4.22−2.93−1.38+0.49+1.95−0.810+5.15+1.75+0.78+3.12−0.22−0.93+1.01−1.33+1.32+0.81+0.70−1.12+1.62+0.34−5.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 9 matches

Hearts

5−1.816+8.437+26.110+2.85−0.18−0.710+4.37+3.313+6.69+2.94−2.65−0.45+1.38+2.76−1.11−3.73−2.43−0.42−2.05−0.61−0.61−0.60−1.31−0.40−2.80−0.80−1.10−0.60−0.80−1.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 9 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Rangers

0.010.020.040.020.020.010.010.040.040.040.040.100.190.040.070.170.210.020.050.140.02−0.05−0.100.360.140.51LessMore

Hearts

0.040.010.020.010.010.020.010.020.010.010.020.010.010.010.010.010.05−0.12−0.010.20LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackRangers2.18 → 2.22Hearts1.25 → 1.22Defence (lower is better)Rangers0.73 → 0.71Hearts1.34 → 1.38

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Rangers
Title21%22%+1
Hearts
Top six56%54%−2
11th4%4%0
Bottom1%2%+1
Celtic
Title79%78%−1
Hibernian
Top six61%61%0
11th4%4%0

From the forecast before the match (29 October 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

RangersHearts
Expected goals2.710.63
Win81%6%
Expected Points2.560.31
Clean sheet53%7%

Rangers 81%Draw 13%Hearts 6%

Most likely score 2–0, 13%. Both sides score 44%.

Hearts goalsRangers goals0123456+0123456+4%2%9%6%2%8%3%7%2%8%5%2%4%3%3%2%13%12%

From the forecast as it stood on 29 October 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowRangers winDrawHearts win
Rangers
Title21%22%17%13%
Hearts
Top six56%54%64%76%
11th4%4%4%2%
Bottom1%2%1%<1%
Celtic
Title79%78%83%87%
Hibernian
Top six61%61%61%54%
11th4%4%4%3%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Rangers

  1. W4–021 OctHibernian (H)xG 2.69–0.45
  2. W3–08 OctSt. Mirren (A)xG 2.05–0.03
  3. L1–330 SepAberdeen (H)xG 2.55–1.64
  4. W1–024 SepMotherwell (H)xG 1.00–0.72
  5. W2–016 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 2.02–0.32
  6. L0–13 SepCeltic (H)xG 1.80–0.95

Hearts

  1. L1–422 OctCeltic (H)xG 0.73–4.01
  2. D2–27 OctHibernian (H)xG 1.25–1.32
  3. W1–030 SepRoss County (A)xG 0.98–0.40
  4. L0–123 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.19–1.59
  5. W2–016 SepAberdeen (H)xG 1.18–0.53
  6. L0–13 SepMotherwell (H)xG 1.51–1.14

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

RangersHearts
Position2nd6th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠0–⁠33–⁠2–⁠4
Points18 (2.00 per game)11 (1.22 per game)
Expected Points per game2.331.28
Goals17–⁠58–⁠9
xG per game1.99–⁠0.581.10–⁠1.35
Home: points, xG per game1.80, 2.10–⁠0.781.00, 1.01–⁠1.55
Away: points, xG per game2.25, 1.85–⁠0.341.50, 1.20–⁠1.11
ManagerPhilippe Clement (1)Steven Naismith (5)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackRangers2.18, 2ndHearts1.25, 4thDefence (lower is better)Rangers0.73, 1stHearts1.34, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctRangers attack: 2.18Hearts attack: 1.252.181.25HeartsRangersDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctRangers defence: 0.73Hearts defence: 1.341.340.73

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

RangersHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+78%−59%−3%+9%
Counter-attacks+57%−81%−17%−15%
Set pieces+5%−26%−24%−1%
Penalties−27%−100%−100%−27%
Headers+78%−44%−33%+1%
Left side+41%−26%−30%−2%
Centre+42%−58%−3%+5%
Right side+100%−70%−4%+11%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Rangers attacking

Rangers createdHearts concededLeft side+41%+11%Centre+42%+5%Right side+100%−2%Open play+78%+9%Counter-attacks+57%−15%Set pieces+5%−1%Headers+78%+1%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdRangers concededLeft side−30%−70%Centre−3%−58%Right side−4%−26%Open play−3%−59%Counter-attacks−17%−81%Set pieces−24%−26%Headers−33%−44%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

RangersHearts

1.99xG1.10
0.58xG against1.35
64%Possession60%
19.1Shots14.1
7.3Shots against12.3
6.7Shots on target4.2
3.4Big chances1.2
29.0Touches in the opposition box27.7
570Passes484
84%Pass accuracy76%
6.0Corners7.9
70%Field tilt60%
60.6Final-third entries45.6
15.6Box entries14.8
10.7Passes per defensive action11.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Rangers

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level301.590.63
Ahead472.030.34
Behind142.711.31

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level450.981.16
Ahead171.091.10
Behind291.291.80

xG by period

Rangers

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.061–0
16–300.290.086–0
31–450.270.051–2
46–600.230.120–0
61–750.430.123–2
76–900.590.156–1

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.050.241–2
16–300.100.271–2
31–450.060.100–0
46–600.210.421–1
61–750.360.094–3
76–900.320.231–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Rangers

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWButland 9Tavernier 9Goldson 8Souttar 6Davies 3Balogun 1Barisic 6Yilmaz 2Sterling 1Cifuentes 4Lundstram 7Lammers 2Jack 2Raskin 7Cantwell 3Dowell 1Lammers 5Wright 1Roofe 1Dessers 7Roofe 1Danilo 1Sima 4Wright 1Roofe 14-3-3 in 4 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (4), 4-2-3-1 (3), 4-3-1-2 (2)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTClark 9Atkinson 5Sibbick 3Offiah 1Kent 9Rowles 9Kingsley 7Cochrane 2Devlin 6Lowry 1Offiah 1Nieuwenhof 4Haring 4Denholm 1Oda 5Forrest 2Devlin 1Boyce 3Shankland 2Nieuwenhof 1Vargas 4Lowry 3Forrest 1Shankland 7Vargas 1Tagawa 14-2-3-1 in 8 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (8), 4-3-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
24 May 2023Rangers2–2HeartsxG 2.85–1.17
1 February 2023Hearts0–3RangersxG 0.86–3.07
9 November 2022Rangers1–0HeartsxG 1.82–0.50
1 October 2022Hearts0–4RangersxG 0.41–1.85
14 May 2022Hearts1–3RangersxG 0.62–1.22
6 February 2022Rangers5–0HeartsxG 4.76–0.57

8 league meetings since 2020/21: Rangers won 6, Hearts won 0, and 2 were drawn. Goals 21–4 and xG 2.60–0.70 per game.

Key players

Rangers

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Sima4515500.650.06
Dessers7543200.560.08
Lammers7563110.420.08
Tavernier9810310.150.25

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland9810200.290.15
Kingsley7585000.050.17
Devlin7588000.070.14
Vargas6518000.070.12

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.