Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Motherwell 1–2 Celtic

Saturday 30 September 2023, 12:30 · Fir Park · Round 7 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee William Collum · Attendance 8,778

Motherwell Spittal 90+5'

Celtic Palma 87', O'Riley 90+7'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

MotherwellCeltic
Goals12
xG0.821.68
Expected Points0.751.98

Motherwell 16%Draw 26%Celtic 57%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Final score 1–2, 11%.

Celtic goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+7%6%2%7%6%2%2%5%5%2%13%11%14%11%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTShaw on for Bair and Souaré on for O'Donnell, 70'Wilkinson on for Miller and Zdravkovski on for Slattery, 89'Forrest on for Yang, 46'Phillips on for Lagerbielke, 62'Oh on for Furuhashi and Turnbull on for Hatate, 76'Palma on for Maeda, 77'Spittal 90+5'Palma 87'O'Riley 90+7'Celtic 1.68Motherwell 0.8200.511.520153045607590HTShaw on for Bair and Souaré on for O'Donnell, 70'Wilkinson on for Miller and Zdravkovski on for Slattery, 89'Forrest on for Yang, 46'Phillips on for Lagerbielke, 62'Oh on for Furuhashi and Turnbull on for Hatate, 76'Palma on for Maeda, 77'Spittal 90+5'Palma 87'O'Riley 90+7'1.680.82MotherwellCeltic

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

MotherwellCeltic

0.82 −0.27xG1.68 −0.96
0.71 −0.56xG on target1.92 −1.14
10 −2Shots24 +8
4 −0.7Shots on target6 −1.7
0 −1.5Big chances2 −2.8
23 +2Touches in the opposition box44
30% −17Possession70% +4
294 −72Passes709 +74
62% −7Pass accuracy86% +4
19% −33Field tilt81% +10
24 −8Final-third entries81 +21
11 +1Box entries25 +4
23.4 +8Passes per defensive action7.9 −4
4 −1.5Corners6 −1.8
17 −1Tackles22 +8
8 −0.3Interceptions3 −4.8
22 −3Clearances20 +2
4 +2.2Saves3 +1.2
12 −1.0Fouls11 +2.0
2 +0.5Offsides1 0.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Motherwell

Spittal 71', 0.31 xGBair 62', 0.10 xGSpittal 16', 0.06 xGCasey 45+5', 0.05 xGBair 67', 0.04 xGSlattery 1', 0.02 xGCasey 90', 0.02 xGPaton 36', 0.01 xGSlattery 37', 0.01 xGSpittal 90+5', 0.18 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals80%0.65 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.65 xG, 1 goal12%0.10 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals6%0.05 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Celtic

Maeda 60', 0.13 xGForrest 83', 0.13 xGLagerbielke 50', 0.11 xGScales 21', 0.10 xGForrest 71', 0.10 xGHatate 23', 0.09 xGYang 27', 0.07 xGTaylor 47', 0.07 xGFuruhashi 34', 0.06 xGO'Riley 40', 0.06 xGO'Riley 87', 0.06 xGFuruhashi 30', 0.05 xGFuruhashi 24', 0.04 xGO'Riley 45', 0.04 xGScales 55', 0.04 xGLagerbielke 55', 0.04 xGO'Riley 80', 0.04 xGYang 16', 0.03 xGTurnbull 83', 0.03 xGJohnston 8', 0.02 xGHatate 19', 0.02 xGPalma 78', 0.02 xGO'Riley 90+7', 0.33 xG, goalPalma 87', 0.02 xG, goal20%0.33 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.33 xG, 1 goal47%0.79 xGCentral box: 10 shots, 0.79 xG, 0 goals20%0.33 xGWide in the box: 6 shots, 0.33 xG, 0 goals14%0.23 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.23 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 1 goal

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

MotherwellCeltic

0.73 7 shots, 1 goalOpen play1.35 19 shots, 2 goals
0.09 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.34 5 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
94 min (91%) · Motherwell 0.61, Celtic 1.68 xG
Celtic ahead
9 min (9%) · Motherwell 0.20, Celtic 0.00 xG

Line-ups

11651523812228147KellyMcGinnMugabiCaseyO'DonnellMillerPatonSpencerSlatteryBairSpittalYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoal70'89'89'70'Motherwell 3-4-3Stuart Kettlewell29245333424113838BainJohnstonLagerbielkeScalesTaylorO'RileyMcGregorHatateYangFuruhashiMaedaGoal62'76'46'76'77'Celtic 4-3-3Brendan Rodgers

Motherwell substitutes

  • 70' Souaré for O'Donnell
  • 70' Shaw for Bair
  • 89' Zdravkovski for Slattery
  • 89' Wilkinson for Miller

Celtic substitutes

  • 46' Forrest for Yang
  • 62' Phillips for Lagerbielke · yellow card 84'
  • 76' Turnbull for Hatate
  • 76' Oh for Furuhashi
  • 77' Palma for Maeda · goal 87'

Players

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KellyGK900.000.0000.0440
McGinnCB900.000.0100.0637
MugabiCB900.000.0110.0129
CaseyCB9010.080.1810.05511
O'Donnell RWB700.000.0410.1034
MillerCM890.000.0100.0213
PatonCM900.010.0200.0336
Spencer LWB900.000.0200.0465
Slattery RW890.030.1310.0033
BairST700.140.100−0.0500
SpittalLW9010.550.2330.3163
SouaréDF200.000.0400.0823
ShawFW200.000.0000.0010
ZdravkovskiMF10.000.0000.0000
WilkinsonFW10.000.000−0.0100

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BainGK900.000.0000.0100
JohnstonRB900.020.3050.36106
LagerbielkeCB620.150.0200.1073
ScalesCB900.130.0300.201616
TaylorLB9010.070.7950.68194
O'RileyCM9010.530.3370.0854
McGregorCM9010.000.2640.3282
HatateCM760.110.1800.0014
YangRW460.100.0600.0861
FuruhashiST760.150.011−0.0901
MaedaLW770.130.0300.0543
ForrestFW440.230.0200.0101
Phillips DF280.000.0100.0421
TurnbullMF140.030.1400.1011
OhFW140.000.0000.0000
PalmaFW1310.030.0920.0721

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Motherwell

Mugabi and Spittal: 3 passesPaton and Miller: 3 passesMiller and Bair: 3 passesMiller and Spittal: 3 passesKelly and McGinn: 4 passesKelly and Spencer: 4 passesCasey and Spencer: 4 passesCasey and Miller: 4 passesMcGinn and Spittal: 4 passesO'Donnell and Miller: 4 passesPaton and Slattery: 4 passesPaton and Spittal: 4 passesSlattery and Spittal: 4 passesCasey and Mugabi: 5 passesCasey and Paton: 5 passesMcGinn and Miller: 5 passesO'Donnell and Bair: 5 passesSpencer and Bair: 5 passesBair and Spittal: 5 passesMcGinn and Paton: 6 passesMcGinn and Slattery: 6 passesSpencer and Paton: 6 passesKelly and O'Donnell: 7 passesSpencer and Spittal: 8 passesMcGinn and O'Donnell: 9 passesO'Donnell and Slattery: 11 passesKelly: 20 completed passesCasey: 19 completed passesMugabi: 7 completed passesMcGinn: 20 completed passesO'Donnell: 18 completed passesSpencer: 10 completed passesPaton: 17 completed passesMiller: 16 completed passesSlattery: 12 completed passesBair: 8 completed passesSpittal: 16 completed passes11551622212388147KellyCaseyMugabiMcGinnO'DonnellSpencerPatonMillerSlatteryBairSpittalStarters until 70' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Celtic

Johnston and Hatate: 4 passesLagerbielke and Taylor: 4 passesJohnston and McGregor: 5 passesTaylor and O'Riley: 5 passesTaylor and Hatate: 5 passesMcGregor and Furuhashi: 5 passesBain and Scales: 6 passesHatate and McGregor: 6 passesScales and Hatate: 8 passesO'Riley and Yang: 8 passesMcGregor and Yang: 8 passesLagerbielke and O'Riley: 9 passesTaylor and Maeda: 9 passesBain and Lagerbielke: 10 passesJohnston and O'Riley: 12 passesLagerbielke and McGregor: 12 passesO'Riley and McGregor: 12 passesTaylor and McGregor: 15 passesJohnston and Yang: 17 passesJohnston and Lagerbielke: 18 passesScales and McGregor: 18 passesScales and Taylor: 24 passesScales and Lagerbielke: 42 passesBain: 12 completed passesJohnston: 32 completed passesScales: 55 completed passesLagerbielke: 52 completed passesTaylor: 37 completed passesO'Riley: 26 completed passesHatate: 11 completed passesMcGregor: 47 completed passesYang: 17 completed passesFuruhashi: 3 completed passesMaeda: 5 completed passes29254333414213838BainJohnstonScalesLagerbielkeTaylorO'RileyHatateMcGregorYangFuruhashiMaedaStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Motherwell

FromToPasses
KellyO'Donnell7
KellySpencer7
SlatteryO'Donnell6
O'DonnellMcGinn6
SpittalSpencer6

Celtic

FromToPasses
McGregorTaylor34
ScalesLagerbielke29
ScalesTaylor29
LagerbielkeScales25
TaylorScales24

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Motherwell

4−2.35−3.712−6.310+4.00−6.210+2.815+8.318+9.712+3.24−2.56−0.74−2.01−3.84−0.81−6.08+2.23−1.22−1.33−1.35−0.52+0.51−0.80−2.02+1.01−1.21−0.20−1.00−0.80−0.51+0.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 6 matches

Celtic

2−2.53−0.210−1.210+1.311+6.012+4.75+0.27+3.06−0.59+1.28+3.33+0.25+2.310+3.76−3.32−2.54+1.24+1.72−0.36−1.85+2.01−1.75+3.06+4.54−1.00−1.01+1.02+1.71+0.50−1.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 6 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Motherwell

0.010.010.020.010.010.010.020.010.030.030.010.010.030.01−0.020.010.050.080.030.060.02−0.02−0.01−0.030.100.18LessMore

Celtic

0.010.010.010.020.010.050.010.010.040.080.070.040.060.070.110.160.080.040.030.130.030.150.21−0.110.040.020.62LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackMotherwell1.18 → 1.17Celtic2.31 → 2.30Defence (lower is better)Motherwell1.29 → 1.29Celtic0.75 → 0.75

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Motherwell
Top six70%67%−3
11th2%2%0
Bottom1%1%0
Celtic
Title72%76%+4
Rangers
Title28%24%−4

From the forecast before the match (30 September 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

MotherwellCeltic
Expected goals0.822.04
Win14%65%
Expected Points0.622.17
Clean sheet13%44%

Motherwell 14%Draw 21%Celtic 65%

Most likely score 0–2, 12%. Both sides score 49%.

Celtic goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+6%8%4%2%4%7%3%1%2%4%4%3%1%1%1%11%12%10%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 30 September 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowMotherwell winDrawCeltic win
Motherwell
Top six70%82%75%67%
11th2%1%2%2%
Bottom1%<1%1%1%
Celtic
Title72%64%67%76%
Rangers
Title28%36%33%24%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Motherwell

  1. L0–124 SepRangers (A)xG 0.72–1.00
  2. L0–116 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.18–0.55
  3. W1–03 SepHearts (A)xG 1.14–1.51
  4. W2–126 AugKilmarnock (H)xG 2.15–1.05
  5. W2–113 AugHibernian (H)xG 0.60–0.86
  6. D1–15 AugDundee FC (A)xG 0.76–1.60

Celtic

  1. W3–023 SepLivingston (A)xG 2.61–0.94
  2. W3–016 SepDundee FC (H)xG 3.17–0.81
  3. W1–03 SepRangers (A)xG 0.95–1.80
  4. D0–026 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.02–0.28
  5. W3–113 AugAberdeen (A)xG 2.94–1.76
  6. W4–25 AugRoss County (H)xG 4.15–1.13

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

MotherwellCeltic
Position4th1st
Played66
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠1–⁠25–⁠1–⁠0
Points10 (1.67 per game)16 (2.67 per game)
Expected Points per game1.312.27
Goals6–⁠514–⁠3
xG per game1.09–⁠1.092.64–⁠1.12
Home: points, xG per game2.00, 1.31–⁠0.822.33, 3.11–⁠0.74
Away: points, xG per game1.33, 0.87–⁠1.373.00, 2.17–⁠1.50
ManagerStuart Kettlewell (20)Brendan Rodgers (6)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackMotherwell1.18, 6thCeltic2.31, 1stDefence (lower is better)Motherwell1.29, 4thCeltic0.75, 2nd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepMotherwell attack: 1.18Celtic attack: 2.312.311.18CelticMotherwellDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepMotherwell defence: 1.29Celtic defence: 0.751.290.75

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

MotherwellCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−11%−14%+110%+8%
Counter-attacks−42%−85%+128%−75%
Set pieces−44%−21%+1%−33%
Penalties+9%+9%+227%−100%
Headers−60%+21%−38%−30%
Left side+4%−21%+35%+4%
Centre−32%−42%+100%−17%
Right side−26%+23%+94%−6%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdCeltic concededLeft side+4%−6%Centre−32%−17%Right side−26%+4%Open play−11%+8%Counter-attacks−42%−75%Set pieces−44%−33%Headers−60%−30%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdMotherwell concededLeft side+35%+23%Centre+100%−42%Right side+94%−21%Open play+110%−14%Counter-attacks+128%−85%Set pieces+1%−21%Headers−38%+21%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

MotherwellCeltic

1.09xG2.64
1.09xG against1.12
47%Possession66%
12.2Shots15.7
12.8Shots against9.8
4.7Shots on target7.7
1.5Big chances4.8
366Passes636
69%Pass accuracy82%
5.5Corners7.8
52%Field tilt70%
32.0Final-third entries59.7
10.3Box entries21.2
15.5Passes per defensive action12.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level471.250.59
Ahead180.502.69
Behind251.240.91

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level392.610.82
Ahead512.671.35
Behind0––

xG by period

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.030.130–1
16–300.220.141–1
31–450.150.111–0
46–600.150.311–1
61–750.110.131–1
76–900.430.272–1

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.380.202–0
16–300.490.193–1
31–450.330.192–0
46–600.700.122–1
61–750.360.203–0
76–900.370.212–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Motherwell

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTKelly 6McGinn 5Mugabi 6Casey 6Blaney 1O'Donnell 6Slattery 6Miller 6Paton 3Spittal 3Spencer 4Souaré 2Bair 6Wilkinson 2Efford 1Spittal 33-5-2 in 3 of 6 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (3), 3-4-3 (2), 5-4-1 (1)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWHart 6Johnston 4Ralston 2Lagerbielke 3Carter-Vickers 2Phillips 1Scales 4Nawrocki 2Taylor 6O'Riley 6McGregor 6Turnbull 5Hatate 1Abada 3Maeda 1Forrest 1Furuhashi 6Maeda 5Yang 14-3-3 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
22 April 2023Celtic1–1MotherwellxG 2.04–0.81
9 November 2022Motherwell1–2CelticxG 0.47–1.43
1 October 2022Celtic2–1MotherwellxG 3.50–0.35
14 May 2022Celtic6–0MotherwellxG 2.32–0.90
6 February 2022Motherwell0–4CelticxG 0.24–2.79
12 December 2021Celtic1–0MotherwellxG 2.45–0.75

10 league meetings since 2020/21: Motherwell won 0, Celtic won 9, and 1 was a draw. Goals 5–27 and xG 0.64–2.22 per game.

Key players

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Spittal6540020.170.25
Slattery6522100.300.09
Bair6470100.120.02
Casey6540100.070.07

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Furuhashi6471420.570.26
O'Riley6517420.590.23
Maeda6510110.410.08
McGregor6540010.010.14

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.