Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Livingston 2–0 Motherwell

Saturday 7 October 2023, 15:00 · Tony Macaroni Arena · Round 8 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Don Robertson · Attendance 2,039

Livingston Anderson 53', Sean Kelly 62' (pen)

Motherwell Miller sent off 45+1'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

LivingstonMotherwell
Goals20
xG2.590.06
Non-penalty xG1.800.06
Expected Points2.940.03

Livingston 97%Draw 3%Motherwell <1%

Most likely score 2–0, 31%. Final score 2–0, 31%.

Motherwell goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+2%13%2%2%14%4%31%30%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTMiller (Motherwell), red card 45+1'Shinnie on for Stephen Kelly, 72'Guthrie on for Anderson, 82'Bradley on for Mackay, 85'Gent on for O'Donnell, Wilkinson on for Bair, and Shaw on for Mugabi, 67'Zdravkovski on for Paton, 85'Anderson 53'Sean Kelly 62' (pen)Livingston 2.59Motherwell 0.0601230153045607590HTMiller (Motherwell), red card 45+1'Shinnie on for Stephen Kelly, 72'Guthrie on for Anderson, 82'Bradley on for Mackay, 85'Gent on for O'Donnell, Wilkinson on for Bair, and Shaw on for Mugabi, 67'Zdravkovski on for Paton, 85'Anderson 53'Sean Kelly 62' (pen)2.590.06LivingstonMotherwell

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

LivingstonMotherwell

2.59 +1.72xG0.06 −0.99
1.80Non-penalty xG0.06
2.07 +1.19xG on target0.20 −0.99
11 +1.6Shots3 −8.9
3 +0.3Shots on target2 −2.6
3 +2.1Big chances0 −1.3
17 +5Touches in the opposition box9 −13
56% +12Possession44% −1
428 +97Passes335 −21
73% +9Pass accuracy62% −7
60% +21Field tilt40% −8
38 +12Final-third entries32 +1
10 +3.0Box entries8 −2.4
9.6 −3Passes per defensive action18.0 +1
3 −0.7Corners5 −0.3
14 −4Tackles14 −4
10 −0.3Interceptions10 +1.7
23 −2Clearances18 −7
2 −0.4Saves1 −1.1
12 −3Fouls15 +2
0 −1.1Offsides3 +1.4

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Livingston

Bradley 86', 0.66 xGStephen Kelly 8', 0.21 xGNouble 38', 0.13 xGObileye 3', 0.10 xGPenrice 28', 0.07 xGSean Kelly 45+3', 0.04 xGSean Kelly 77', 0.04 xGBradley 90+6', 0.04 xGStephen Kelly 70', 0.03 xGAnderson 53', 0.46 xG, goal62%1.12 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 1.12 xG, 1 goal27%0.49 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.49 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals4%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.07 xG, 0 goals7%0.12 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals

Motherwell

Wilkinson 73', 0.03 xGBair 12', 0.02 xGCasey 30', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGCentral box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals33%0.02 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals50%0.03 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals17%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

LivingstonMotherwell

0.79 4 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.05 2 shots, 0 goals
0.66 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.35 5 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.01 1 shot, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
56 min (57%) · Livingston 1.02, Motherwell 0.04 xG
Livingston ahead
43 min (43%) · Livingston 1.56, Motherwell 0.03 xG

Line-ups

123624111882910199Georgede LucasObileyeSean KellyMackayHoltPittmanPenriceStephen KellyNoubleAndersonGoalYellow cardGoal85'72'82'Livingston 3-4-1-2David Martindale15151621222387814KellyMugabiCaseyMcGinnO'DonnellPatonSpencerMillerSpittalSlatteryBairYellow cardYellow cardSent off67'67'85'67'Motherwell 3-4-3Stuart Kettlewell

Livingston substitutes

  • 72' Shinnie for Stephen Kelly
  • 82' Guthrie for Anderson
  • 85' Bradley for Mackay

Motherwell substitutes

  • 67' Gent for O'Donnell
  • 67' Wilkinson for Bair · yellow card 90+4'
  • 67' Shaw for Mugabi
  • 85' Zdravkovski for Paton

Players

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GeorgeGK900.000.0100.1290
de LucasCB900.000.0200.09813
ObileyeCB900.100.0000.0246
Sean KellyCB9010.870.0710.0656
MackayRWB8510.000.7320.2662
Holt CM900.000.0300.0036
PittmanCM900.000.0100.0026
PenriceLWB900.070.0410.0141
Stephen KellyAM720.250.1310.0141
NoubleST900.130.020−0.0353
AndersonST8210.460.010−0.0120
ShinnieMF180.000.0100.0003
GuthrieFW80.000.0710.1731
BradleyMF50.700.0200.0420

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KellyGK900.000.0000.0341
MugabiCB670.000.0000.0117
Casey CB900.010.0100.0557
McGinnCB900.000.0100.0879
O'DonnellRWB670.000.0110.0774
PatonCM850.000.0100.0230
Spencer CM900.000.1400.0882
Miller LWB450.000.0300.0333
SpittalRW900.000.0400.0852
SlatteryST900.000.0900.0123
BairLW670.020.0200.0222
GentMF230.000.0000.0021
Wilkinson FW230.030.0000.0102
ShawFW230.000.0000.0102
ZdravkovskiMF50.000.0000.0101

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Livingston

de Lucas and Pittman: 5 passesde Lucas and Stephen Kelly: 5 passesde Lucas and Nouble: 5 passesMackay and Holt: 5 passesPittman and Stephen Kelly: 5 passesHolt and Stephen Kelly: 5 passesPenrice and Stephen Kelly: 5 passesSean Kelly and Pittman: 6 passesSean Kelly and Nouble: 6 passesMackay and Stephen Kelly: 6 passesPittman and Holt: 6 passesStephen Kelly and Nouble: 6 passesGeorge and de Lucas: 7 passesGeorge and Nouble: 7 passesObileye and Stephen Kelly: 7 passesStephen Kelly and Anderson: 7 passesGeorge and Obileye: 8 passesSean Kelly and Holt: 8 passesHolt and Nouble: 8 passesPenrice and Nouble: 8 passesGeorge and Sean Kelly: 10 passesSean Kelly and Penrice: 10 passesHolt and Penrice: 10 passesde Lucas and Mackay: 12 passesObileye and Sean Kelly: 17 passesObileye and de Lucas: 21 passesGeorge: 20 completed passesObileye: 38 completed passesSean Kelly: 35 completed passesde Lucas: 33 completed passesMackay: 17 completed passesPittman: 19 completed passesHolt: 32 completed passesPenrice: 25 completed passesStephen Kelly: 25 completed passesNouble: 19 completed passesAnderson: 9 completed passes162423118182910199GeorgeObileyeSean Kellyde LucasMackayPittmanHoltPenriceStephen KellyNoubleAndersonStarters until 72' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Motherwell

Kelly and O'Donnell: 3 passesCasey and McGinn: 3 passesMcGinn and Spittal: 3 passesO'Donnell and Miller: 3 passesSpencer and Paton: 3 passesSpencer and Bair: 3 passesSpencer and Spittal: 3 passesSlattery and Bair: 3 passesKelly and McGinn: 4 passesCasey and Slattery: 4 passesMugabi and Slattery: 4 passesMcGinn and Slattery: 4 passesO'Donnell and Slattery: 4 passesPaton and Bair: 4 passesBair and Spittal: 4 passesMcGinn and Bair: 6 passesSlattery and Spittal: 6 passesMcGinn and O'Donnell: 7 passesO'Donnell and Bair: 7 passesKelly: 8 completed passesCasey: 11 completed passesMugabi: 8 completed passesMcGinn: 16 completed passesO'Donnell: 15 completed passesSpencer: 7 completed passesPaton: 6 completed passesMiller: 9 completed passesSlattery: 12 completed passesBair: 11 completed passesSpittal: 10 completed passes11551622212388147KellyCaseyMugabiMcGinnO'DonnellSpencerPatonMillerSlatteryBairSpittalStarters until 45+1' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Livingston

FromToPasses
de LucasObileye13
Obileyede Lucas11
Sean KellyObileye9
Sean KellyGeorge9
GeorgeNouble9

Motherwell

FromToPasses
McGinnO'Donnell8
CaseyMcGinn8
O'DonnellBair7
SlatteryMcGinn6
McGinnBair6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Livingston

5−3.911−4.99+1.17+0.76−1.712+1.72−3.19+2.311+4.06−1.98+2.77+2.311+5.45−1.93−2.15−0.62−0.14+0.13−0.64+1.06+3.90−0.92−0.95+2.41+0.30−0.60−1.00−0.11+0.73−6.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

Motherwell

60.011+2.97+0.413+7.79+1.47−0.94−5.74−5.36−0.17+0.47+1.30−4.36+1.34−2.13−3.140.02−1.13−1.11−4.44+2.42+0.30−1.72+0.91−1.00−1.10−0.91+0.34+3.61+0.111−6.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Livingston

0.020.010.010.060.050.010.040.020.010.050.040.010.010.010.01−0.02−0.040.03−0.020.050.37LessMore

Motherwell

0.010.020.010.030.030.010.010.010.030.020.010.020.01−0.020.020.060.010.050.040.04−0.010.08LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackLivingston1.00 → 1.05Motherwell1.17 → 1.13Defence (lower is better)Livingston1.45 → 1.39Motherwell1.29 → 1.34

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Livingston
Top six16%23%+7
11th17%13%−4
Bottom12%8%−4
Motherwell
Top six65%56%−9
11th2%4%+2
Bottom1%1%0
Dundee FC
11th21%23%+2
Bottom25%26%+1
Kilmarnock
Top six37%38%+1

From the forecast before the match (7 October 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

LivingstonMotherwell
Expected goals1.191.17
Win36%35%
Expected Points1.371.34
Clean sheet31%30%

Livingston 36%Draw 29%Motherwell 35%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 49%.

Motherwell goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+6%3%8%3%7%8%5%2%3%3%2%10%10%11%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 7 October 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowLivingston winDrawMotherwell win
Livingston
Top six16%23%14%10%
11th17%13%18%20%
Bottom12%8%12%16%
Motherwell
Top six65%56%63%75%
11th2%4%2%1%
Bottom1%1%1%1%
Dundee FC
11th21%23%20%19%
Bottom25%26%25%24%
Kilmarnock
Top six37%38%39%35%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Livingston

  1. D1–130 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.98–0.62
  2. L0–323 SepCeltic (H)xG 0.94–2.61
  3. D1–116 SepRoss County (A)xG 0.17–0.87
  4. D1–12 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.45–0.67
  5. W3–226 AugHibernian (A)xG 1.68–0.81
  6. L0–412 AugRangers (A)xG 0.12–2.44

Motherwell

  1. L1–230 SepCeltic (H)xG 0.82–1.68
  2. L0–124 SepRangers (A)xG 0.72–1.00
  3. L0–116 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.18–0.55
  4. W1–03 SepHearts (A)xG 1.14–1.51
  5. W2–126 AugKilmarnock (H)xG 2.15–1.05
  6. W2–113 AugHibernian (H)xG 0.60–0.86

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

LivingstonMotherwell
Position11th5th
Played77
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠4–⁠23–⁠1–⁠3
Points7 (1.00 per game)10 (1.43 per game)
Expected Points per game1.191.23
Goals6–⁠127–⁠7
xG per game0.87–⁠1.251.05–⁠1.18
Home: points, xG per game0.67, 1.05–⁠1.331.50, 1.19–⁠1.03
Away: points, xG per game1.25, 0.74–⁠1.191.33, 0.87–⁠1.37
ManagerDavid Martindale (106)Stuart Kettlewell (21)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackLivingston1.00, 11thMotherwell1.17, 6thDefence (lower is better)Livingston1.45, 9thMotherwell1.29, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepLivingston attack: 1.00Motherwell attack: 1.171.171.00MotherwellLivingstonDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepLivingston defence: 1.45Motherwell defence: 1.291.451.29

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

LivingstonMotherwell
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−43%+7%−8%average
Counter-attacks−72%−44%−44%−86%
Set pieces−18%−30%−51%−21%
Penaltiesaverageaverageaverageaverage
Headers+6%−25%−66%+26%
Left side−35%+8%−5%+6%
Centre−31%−7%−30%−38%
Right side−53%−23%−23%+24%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdMotherwell concededLeft side−35%+24%Centre−31%−38%Right side−53%+6%Open play−43%averageCounter-attacks−72%−86%Set pieces−18%−21%Headers+6%+26%

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdLivingston concededLeft side−5%−23%Centre−30%−7%Right side−23%+8%Open play−8%+7%Counter-attacks−44%−44%Set pieces−51%−30%Headers−66%−25%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

LivingstonMotherwell

0.87xG1.05
1.25xG against1.18
44%Possession45%
9.4Shots11.9
13.7Shots against14.4
2.7Shots on target4.6
0.9Big chances1.3
12.0Touches in the opposition box21.8
331Passes356
64%Pass accuracy68%
3.7Corners5.3
39%Field tilt48%
25.7Final-third entries30.8
7.0Box entries10.4
12.5Passes per defensive action16.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level510.920.85
Ahead120.731.16
Behind270.832.03

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level531.100.86
Ahead150.502.69
Behind221.340.89

xG by period

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.070.211–2
16–300.050.110–0
31–450.070.110–1
46–600.250.361–2
61–750.230.153–1
76–900.200.291–6

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.030.110–1
16–300.200.181–1
31–450.140.121–0
46–600.120.321–1
61–750.160.131–1
76–900.400.323–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Livingston

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTGeorge 7de Lucas 6Shinnie 1Parkes 1Obileye 7Devlin 5Sean Kelly 1Brandon 7Holt 6Sangare 1Penrice 1Shinnie 5Pittman 1Penrice 4Montano 2Shinnie 1Sangare 3Pittman 2Holt 1Nouble 6Anderson 1Guthrie 3Anderson 2Nouble 13-4-2-1 in 2 of 7 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (2), 3-5-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-3-2-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

Motherwell

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWKelly 7McGinn 6Mugabi 7Casey 7Blaney 1O'Donnell 7Slattery 4Miller 4Paton 3Spittal 3Spencer 5Souaré 2Miller 3Slattery 3Paton 1Bair 4Wilkinson 2Efford 1Spittal 4Bair 33-4-3 in 3 of 7 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (3), 3-5-2 (3), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
24 May 2023Livingston1–1MotherwellxG 0.70–0.47
8 April 2023Motherwell3–0LivingstonxG 1.59–0.84
2 January 2023Livingston1–1MotherwellxG 2.40–1.82
20 August 2022Motherwell1–0LivingstonxG 1.43–0.27
9 April 2022Livingston2–2MotherwellxG 1.21–0.90
26 December 2021Motherwell2–1LivingstonxG 0.92–0.43

10 league meetings since 2020/21: Livingston won 0, Motherwell won 6, and 4 were drawn. Goals 9–19 and xG 1.07–1.31 per game.

Key players

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nouble7626010.150.04
de Lucas6568100.160.01
Brandon7500000.020.10
Obileye7630000.090.01

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Spittal7630120.220.25
Slattery7611100.260.10
Bair7540100.130.04
Casey7630110.070.08

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.