Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Motherwell 0–3 Hearts

Sunday 18 September 2022, 15:00 · Fir Park · Round 8 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Nick Walsh · Attendance 7,102

Hearts Shankland 17', Forrest 50', 90'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

MotherwellHearts
Goals03
xG2.831.92
Expected Points1.940.85

Motherwell 57%Draw 22%Hearts 21%

Most likely score 2–2, 10%. Final score 0–3, 1%.

Hearts goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+1%1%1%5%5%3%2%5%1%2%6%1%1%5%6%3%1%2%3%2%1%1%7%10%8%9%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTAarons on for Efford, 30'McKinstry on for Aarons, 45+2'Cornelius on for Maguire, Mugabi on for Lamie, and Moult on for Tierney, 67'Haring on for Cochrane, 39'Snodgrass on for Devlin, 64'Humphrys on for Shankland, 65'Atkinson on for Halliday and Sibbick on for McKay, 73'Shankland 17'Forrest 50'Forrest 90'Motherwell 2.83Hearts 1.9201230153045607590HTAarons on for Efford, 30'McKinstry on for Aarons, 45+2'Cornelius on for Maguire, Mugabi on for Lamie, and Moult on for Tierney, 67'Haring on for Cochrane, 39'Snodgrass on for Devlin, 64'Humphrys on for Shankland, 65'Atkinson on for Halliday and Sibbick on for McKay, 73'Shankland 17'Forrest 50'Forrest 90'2.831.92MotherwellHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

MotherwellHearts

2.83 +1.17xG1.92 +0.54
0.43 −1.02xG on target2.61 +1.45
25 +11Shots10 −3
5 +1.2Shots on target6 +1.3
4 +1.5Big chances3 +0.8
29Touches in the opposition box13 −8
53% 0Possession47% −5
409 +18Passes396 −18
78% +7Pass accuracy74% +1
66% +6Field tilt34% −17
51 +11Final-third entries30 −8
10 +0.5Box entries10 −1.8
10.2 −2Passes per defensive action15.1 −1
6 +1.5Corners2 −2.7
18 +6Tackles19 +2
12 +3.5Interceptions13 +6.2
4 −15Clearances28 +14
3 +0.7Saves5 +1.8
12 −3Fouls13 +3
4 +2.8Offsides0 −1.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Motherwell

McGinn 47', 0.54 xGvan Veen 68', 0.37 xGvan Veen 68', 0.29 xGvan Veen 32', 0.28 xGMugabi 70', 0.23 xGSpittal 47', 0.14 xGCornelius 90+7', 0.14 xGMcKinstry 75', 0.09 xGSpittal 70', 0.08 xGMoult 85', 0.08 xGTierney 66', 0.07 xGMugabi 87', 0.07 xGMugabi 70', 0.06 xGTierney 3', 0.05 xGMcGinn 31', 0.05 xGGoss 40', 0.05 xGEfford 27', 0.04 xGTierney 57', 0.04 xGvan Veen 44', 0.03 xGGoss 81', 0.03 xGMcKinstry 82', 0.03 xGPenney 83', 0.03 xGSpittal 24', 0.02 xGGoss 28', 0.02 xGPenney 85', 0.01 xG32%0.91 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.91 xG, 0 goals53%1.51 xGCentral box: 12 shots, 1.51 xG, 0 goals4%0.12 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals7%0.19 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.19 xG, 0 goals4%0.10 xGFurther out: 4 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Shankland 17', 0.23 xGForrest 21', 0.11 xGDevlin 63', 0.10 xGDevlin 45+2', 0.08 xGForrest 38', 0.04 xGDevlin 48', 0.04 xGShankland 10', 0.03 xGForrest 90', 0.73 xG, goalShankland 17', 0.44 xG, goalForrest 50', 0.12 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals83%1.59 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 1.59 xG, 3 goals7%0.14 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals10%0.19 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.19 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

MotherwellHearts

2.12 15 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.92 10 shots, 3 goals
0.71 10 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
17 min (17%) · Motherwell 0.05, Hearts 0.70 xG
Hearts ahead
82 min (83%) · Motherwell 2.78, Hearts 1.22 xG

Line-ups

11615424627112679KellyMcGinnJohansenLamiePenneyMaguireGossEffordTierneySpittalvan VeenYellow card67'67'30'67'Motherwell 4-2-3-1Steven Hammell12203191614178189GordonSmithNeilsonKingsleyCochraneHallidayDevlinForrestKiomourtzoglouMcKayShanklandYellow cardGoalGoalYellow cardGoal39'73'64'73'65'Hearts 4-2-3-1Robbie Neilson

Motherwell substitutes

  • 30' Aarons for Efford · yellow card 37', off 45+2'
  • 45+2' McKinstry for Aarons · yellow card 75'
  • 67' Mugabi for Lamie
  • 67' Cornelius for Maguire
  • 67' Moult for Tierney

Hearts substitutes

  • 39' Haring for Cochrane
  • 64' Snodgrass for Devlin
  • 65' Humphrys for Shankland
  • 73' Atkinson for Halliday · 1 assist
  • 73' Sibbick for McKay

Players

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KellyGK900.000.0000.0540
McGinn RB900.590.1000.1772
JohansenCB900.000.0110.0655
LamieCB670.000.0210.0749
PenneyLB900.040.2520.3594
MaguireDM670.000.0000.0002
GossDM900.100.2450.37122
EffordRW300.040.0110.0110
TierneyAM670.160.0100.0412
SpittalLW900.240.0520.0352
van VeenST900.960.1110.3033
Aarons FW150.000.0210.0100
McKinstry FW450.120.0000.0111
MugabiDF230.350.0000.0321
CorneliusMF230.140.0100.0402
MoultFW230.080.010−0.0500

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0114
Smith RB900.000.1310.1563
NeilsonCB900.000.0000.0335
KingsleyCB900.000.3500.28813
CochraneLB390.000.0210.0442
HallidayDM730.000.0910.1743
DevlinDM640.220.0000.0236
Forrest RW9021.000.0110.0835
KiomourtzoglouAM900.000.0200.0315
McKayLW730.000.0210.0564
ShanklandST65110.700.041−0.0322
HaringMF510.000.0100.0223
SnodgrassMF260.000.0000.0003
HumphrysFW250.000.0000.0213
AtkinsonDF1710.000.5410.0114
SibbickDF170.000.0000.0002

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Motherwell

McGinn and Maguire: 3 passesMcGinn and Tierney: 3 passesPenney and van Veen: 3 passesGoss and Efford: 3 passesGoss and Tierney: 3 passesEfford and Tierney: 3 passesKelly and Lamie: 4 passesLamie and Maguire: 4 passesMaguire and Efford: 4 passesSpittal and van Veen: 4 passesLamie and Penney: 5 passesMcGinn and Johansen: 6 passesKelly and Johansen: 7 passesLamie and Goss: 7 passesPenney and Goss: 7 passesPenney and Spittal: 8 passesGoss and Spittal: 9 passesKelly: 10 completed passesMcGinn: 10 completed passesJohansen: 12 completed passesLamie: 17 completed passesPenney: 15 completed passesGoss: 17 completed passesMaguire: 9 completed passesEfford: 6 completed passesTierney: 4 completed passesSpittal: 9 completed passesvan Veen: 4 completed passes11615424276112679KellyMcGinnJohansenLamiePenneyGossMaguireEffordTierneySpittalvan VeenStarters until 30' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hearts

Neilson and Devlin: 3 passesNeilson and Halliday: 3 passesCochrane and Devlin: 3 passesCochrane and Shankland: 3 passesDevlin and Halliday: 3 passesHalliday and McKay: 3 passesHalliday and Shankland: 3 passesKiomourtzoglou and Shankland: 3 passesSmith and Kiomourtzoglou: 4 passesSmith and Shankland: 4 passesKingsley and Kiomourtzoglou: 4 passesKingsley and Shankland: 4 passesForrest and Kiomourtzoglou: 4 passesSmith and Kingsley: 5 passesSmith and Devlin: 5 passesCochrane and Halliday: 5 passesCochrane and McKay: 5 passesKingsley and Neilson: 7 passesKingsley and McKay: 7 passesGordon and Neilson: 8 passesSmith and Forrest: 8 passesKingsley and Cochrane: 8 passesSmith and Neilson: 13 passesGordon: 12 completed passesSmith: 23 completed passesKingsley: 22 completed passesNeilson: 19 completed passesCochrane: 16 completed passesDevlin: 12 completed passesHalliday: 10 completed passesForrest: 10 completed passesKiomourtzoglou: 10 completed passesMcKay: 9 completed passesShankland: 7 completed passes12320191416178189GordonSmithKingsleyNeilsonCochraneDevlinHallidayForrestKiomourtzoglouMcKayShanklandStarters until 39' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Motherwell

FromToPasses
GossPenney12
JohansenKelly11
PenneySpittal9
PenneyGoss8
SpittalGoss8

Hearts

FromToPasses
GordonNeilson14
NeilsonSmith14
ForrestSmith10
SmithNeilson7
KingsleyCochrane7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Motherwell

0−4.82−2.24−2.26+0.26−0.86+0.89+3.56−1.52−4.09+1.79+3.71−1.810+3.710+4.28+4.02−1.811+9.26+3.29+4.81−2.20−1.21+0.22−0.33−0.53+1.80−0.30−1.50−0.21−1.01−15.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 6 matches

Hearts

4−2.27+0.321+12.06+0.25+2.212+3.713+7.710+4.511+3.76−0.87+2.710+4.31−1.53−4.02−3.35+1.04+0.52−1.23+0.76+1.35+2.22+1.21+0.30−1.83+0.80−0.50−0.30−0.80−0.30−0.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 6 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Motherwell

0.010.010.010.020.030.010.050.010.040.040.060.050.050.040.020.060.020.250.010.020.090.07−0.010.170.36LessMore

Hearts

0.010.030.020.020.010.020.020.050.010.060.040.010.010.010.040.010.020.080.090.030.10−0.060.070.18LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.18AttackMotherwell1.06 → 1.08Hearts1.21 → 1.22Defence (lower is better)Motherwell1.27 → 1.27Hearts1.18 → 1.20

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Motherwell
Top six48%39%−9
11th4%5%+1
Bottom2%3%+1
Hearts
Top six80%88%+8
11th1%<1%−1

From the forecast before the match (18 September 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

MotherwellHearts
Expected goals1.261.18
Win38%34%
Expected Points1.411.30
Clean sheet31%28%

Motherwell 38%Draw 29%Hearts 34%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 50%.

Hearts goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+9%10%6%2%8%3%7%8%5%2%3%3%2%1%10%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 September 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowMotherwell winDrawHearts win
Motherwell
Top six48%59%45%39%
11th4%2%5%5%
Bottom2%1%2%3%
Hearts
Top six80%73%81%88%
11th1%1%1%<1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Motherwell

  1. D0–03 SepDundee United (H)xG 3.28–0.36
  2. L1–227 AugKilmarnock (A)xG 0.70–1.52
  3. W1–020 AugLivingston (H)xG 1.43–0.27
  4. W3–213 AugAberdeen (A)xG 2.72–1.27
  5. L1–26 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.67–0.87
  6. W1–031 JulSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.16–2.38

Hearts

  1. L0–13 SepLivingston (A)xG 0.69–1.19
  2. W3–228 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.74–0.77
  3. L0–221 AugCeltic (A)xG 0.29–2.55
  4. W4–114 AugDundee United (H)xG 1.80–1.21
  5. D1–17 AugHibernian (A)xG 0.96–1.50
  6. W2–130 JulRoss County (H)xG 1.78–1.54

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

MotherwellHearts
Position8th7th
Played66
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠1–⁠23–⁠1–⁠2
Points10 (1.67 per game)10 (1.67 per game)
Expected Points per game1.681.33
Goals7–⁠610–⁠8
xG per game1.66–⁠1.111.38–⁠1.46
Home: points, xG per game1.33, 1.79–⁠0.503.00, 2.11–⁠1.17
Away: points, xG per game2.00, 1.53–⁠1.720.33, 0.65–⁠1.75
ManagerSteven Hammell (6)Robbie Neilson (44)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.18AttackMotherwell1.06, 6thHearts1.21, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Motherwell1.27, 7thHearts1.18, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepMotherwell attack: 1.06Hearts attack: 1.211.211.06HeartsMotherwellDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepMotherwell defence: 1.27Hearts defence: 1.181.271.18

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

MotherwellHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+24%−11%+22%+28%
Counter-attacks−30%+71%−77%−13%
Set pieces−31%+5%−22%−21%
Penalties+242%−100%+14%+14%
Headers−27%+8%−15%+9%
Left side+47%−17%+18%−4%
Centre−18%+15%+4%+29%
Right side+15%−21%+3%+14%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdHearts concededLeft side+47%+14%Centre−18%+29%Right side+15%−4%Open play+24%+28%Counter-attacks−30%−13%Set pieces−31%−21%Headers−27%+9%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdMotherwell concededLeft side+18%−21%Centre+4%+15%Right side+3%−17%Open play+22%−11%Counter-attacks−77%+71%Set pieces−22%+5%Headers−15%+8%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

MotherwellHearts

1.66xG1.38
1.11xG against1.46
53%Possession52%
14.0Shots12.8
13.3Shots against11.7
3.8Shots on target4.7
2.5Big chances2.2
390Passes414
71%Pass accuracy72%
4.5Corners4.7
59%Field tilt52%
40.1Final-third entries37.7
9.5Box entries11.8
12.6Passes per defensive action15.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level462.191.18
Ahead311.121.34
Behind141.110.37

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level272.471.30
Ahead371.191.44
Behind260.511.66

xG by period

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.071–0
16–300.100.191–1
31–450.410.311–1
46–600.210.182–1
61–750.370.121–1
76–900.440.251–2

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.260.181–2
16–300.130.242–1
31–450.320.231–0
46–600.250.182–1
61–750.140.241–1
76–900.270.393–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Motherwell

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWKelly 6McGinn 6Johansen 6Mugabi 2Lamie 4O'Donnell 4Penney 1Carroll 1Slattery 3Maguire 2van Veen 1Goss 5Spittal 1Cornelius 3Tierney 1Morris 1Spittal 2Shields 2Slattery 1van Veen 4Efford 1Shields 1Spittal 3Goss 1van Veen 14-3-3 in 3 of 6 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (3), 4-4-2 (2), 4-1-4-1 (1)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 5Stewart 1M. Smith 3Sibbick 2Atkinson 1Halkett 3Neilson 2Sibbick 1Rowles 5Kingsley 1Cochrane 5Halliday 1Haring 4Halliday 2Devlin 3Grant 2M. Smith 1Forrest 3McKay 2Ginnelly 1Boyce 3Atkinson 2Grant 1Mackay-Steven 3McKay 2Forrest 1Shankland 3Humphrys 1Ginnelly 14-2-3-1 in 4 of 6 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (4), 3-4-3 (2)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
11 May 2022Motherwell2–1HeartsxG 1.42–1.31
29 January 2022Hearts2–0MotherwellxG 1.65–0.76
20 November 2021Motherwell2–0HeartsxG 2.16–0.30
2 October 2021Hearts2–0MotherwellxG 2.16–1.12

4 league meetings since 2020/21: Motherwell won 2, Hearts won 2, and 0 were drawn. Goals 4–5 and xG 1.36–1.35 per game.

Key players

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
van Veen6535400.790.12
Goss6518010.110.11
McGinn6470000.020.08
Johansen6540000.050.00

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Gordon5450000.000.00

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.