Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Kilmarnock 0–1 Hibernian

Saturday 24 October 2020, 15:00 · Rugby Park · Round 12 · Half-time 0–1

Hibernian Nisbet 27' (pen)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockHibernian
Goals01
xG0.971.50
Non-penalty xG0.970.71
Expected Points0.871.81

Kilmarnock 19%Draw 31%Hibernian 50%

Most likely score 1–1, 20%. Final score 0–1, 14%.

Hibernian goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+3%14%11%3%4%14%4%2%8%7%2%2%1%20%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTFindlay on for Dikamona, 38'Pinnock on for Dicker and Brophy on for Kiltie, 67'Mulumbu on for Tshibola, 82'Doig on for Stevenson, 46'Magennis on for Nisbet, 82'Hallberg on for Mallan, 87'Nisbet 27' (pen)Hibernian 1.50Kilmarnock 0.9700.511.520153045607590HTFindlay on for Dikamona, 38'Pinnock on for Dicker and Brophy on for Kiltie, 67'Mulumbu on for Tshibola, 82'Doig on for Stevenson, 46'Magennis on for Nisbet, 82'Hallberg on for Mallan, 87'Nisbet 27' (pen)1.500.97KilmarnockHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockHibernian

0.97 −0.05xG1.50 −0.07
0.97Non-penalty xG0.71
0.00 −1.29xG on target1.30 −0.26
8 −1.8Shots11 −2.0
0 −3.8Shots on target2 −2.2
1 −0.2Big chances2 +0.1
22 +9Touches in the opposition box10 −18
55% +13Possession45% −2
414 +74Passes343 −25
77% +8Pass accuracy68% −2
68% +24Field tilt32% −7
40 +3Final-third entries40 +4
10 +0.7Box entries8 −3.7
11.5 −4Passes per defensive action11.8 −4
1 −3.8Corners6 +0.7
12 −1Tackles12 −2
4 −7.2Interceptions8 −1.0
8 −12Clearances19 −3
1 −1.2Saves0 −2.9
17 +5Fouls20 +8
4 +1.9Offsides2 −0.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Kiltie 40', 0.37 xGRossi 8', 0.18 xGFindlay 74', 0.13 xGKabamba 82', 0.09 xGKiltie 59', 0.08 xGFindlay 40', 0.06 xGWaters 65', 0.03 xGPower 81', 0.03 xG31%0.30 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.30 xG, 0 goals62%0.60 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.60 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals7%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

Hallberg 89', 0.30 xGDoidge 62', 0.09 xGP. McGinn 66', 0.05 xGDoidge 50', 0.04 xGMallan 57', 0.04 xGNisbet 57', 0.04 xGMallan 69', 0.04 xGNewell 84', 0.04 xGNewell 88', 0.04 xGNewell 2', 0.03 xG42%0.30 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.30 xG, 0 goals13%0.09 xGCentral box: 1 shot, 0.09 xG, 0 goals7%0.05 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals38%0.27 xGEdge of the box: 7 shots, 0.27 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockHibernian

0.36 5 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.71 10 shots, 0 goals
0.61 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
27 min (30%) · Kilmarnock 0.18, Hibernian 0.81 xG
Hibernian ahead
63 min (70%) · Kilmarnock 0.80, Hibernian 0.68 xG

Line-ups

231454182786291110RogersRossiBroadfootDikamonaWatersTshibolaDickerPowerBurkeKabambaKiltieYellow cardYellow card38'82'67'67'Kilmarnock 4-3-3Alex Dyer16541610131114159MarcianoP. McGinnPorteousHanlonStevensonBoyleGogicNewellMallanNisbetDoidgeYellow cardGoal46'87'82'Hibernian 4-4-2Jack Ross

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 38' Findlay for Dikamona
  • 67' Pinnock for Dicker
  • 67' Brophy for Kiltie
  • 82' Mulumbu for Tshibola

Hibernian substitutes

  • 46' Doig for Stevenson
  • 82' Magennis for Nisbet
  • 87' Hallberg for Mallan

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RogersGK900.000.0000.0341
RossiRB900.180.0400.0365
BroadfootCB900.000.0200.11104
Dikamona CB380.000.0000.0112
WatersLB900.030.0400.0231
TshibolaCM820.000.0320.0651
DickerCM670.000.1500.1145
Power CM900.030.1100.15132
BurkeRW900.000.4430.1561
KabambaST900.090.010−0.0101
KiltieLW670.450.1200.0020
FindlayDF520.190.0110.0544
PinnockMF230.000.4120.4442
BrophyFW230.000.010−0.0100
MulumbuMF80.000.000−0.0100

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarcianoGK900.000.0000.0451
P. McGinnRB900.050.1320.17117
PorteousCB900.000.0000.0353
HanlonCB900.000.0810.1149
StevensonLB460.000.0100.0453
BoyleRM900.000.0110.0112
GogicCM900.000.0000.0462
NewellCM900.100.1020.32114
Mallan LM870.080.0710.0864
NisbetST8210.830.0200.0441
DoidgeST900.130.0110.0842
DoigDF440.000.0010.0102
MagennisMF80.000.0000.0000
HallbergMF30.300.0000.0001

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Rossi and Tshibola: 3 passesDikamona and Waters: 3 passesBroadfoot and Burke: 3 passesWaters and Dicker: 3 passesPower and Burke: 3 passesPower and Kiltie: 3 passesTshibola and Kiltie: 3 passesRossi and Power: 4 passesWaters and Power: 4 passesPower and Tshibola: 4 passesDikamona and Broadfoot: 5 passesDikamona and Dicker: 5 passesDicker and Kiltie: 5 passesWaters and Tshibola: 7 passesWaters and Kiltie: 9 passesRossi and Burke: 10 passesDicker and Tshibola: 12 passesRogers: 2 completed passesRossi: 11 completed passesDikamona: 11 completed passesBroadfoot: 7 completed passesWaters: 16 completed passesDicker: 20 completed passesPower: 12 completed passesTshibola: 17 completed passesBurke: 8 completed passesKabamba: 4 completed passesKiltie: 10 completed passes231445188627291110RogersRossiDikamonaBroadfootWatersDickerPowerTshibolaBurkeKabambaKiltieStarters until 38' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hibernian

Marciano and P. McGinn: 3 passesMarciano and Stevenson: 3 passesP. McGinn and Newell: 3 passesPorteous and Mallan: 3 passesHanlon and Mallan: 3 passesStevenson and Doidge: 3 passesGogic and Nisbet: 3 passesMallan and Doidge: 3 passesMarciano and Doidge: 4 passesStevenson and Nisbet: 4 passesNewell and Mallan: 4 passesP. McGinn and Boyle: 5 passesP. McGinn and Doidge: 5 passesP. McGinn and Nisbet: 5 passesStevenson and Newell: 5 passesBoyle and Nisbet: 5 passesNewell and Nisbet: 5 passesPorteous and Newell: 6 passesHanlon and Stevenson: 6 passesPorteous and Hanlon: 7 passesHanlon and Newell: 9 passesStevenson and Mallan: 9 passesP. McGinn and Porteous: 10 passesMarciano and Porteous: 13 passesMarciano: 15 completed passesP. McGinn: 19 completed passesPorteous: 26 completed passesHanlon: 16 completed passesStevenson: 20 completed passesBoyle: 3 completed passesGogic: 3 completed passesNewell: 18 completed passesMallan: 12 completed passesDoidge: 6 completed passesNisbet: 10 completed passes16541610131114915MarcianoP. McGinnPorteousHanlonStevensonBoyleGogicNewellMallanDoidgeNisbetStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
TshibolaPower10
DickerTshibola10
PowerBurke9
TshibolaDicker8
BurkeRossi8

Hibernian

FromToPasses
MarcianoDoidge10
PorteousMarciano9
NewellNisbet7
StevensonMallan7
PorteousP. McGinn7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

1−1.83−3.22−6.18+2.210+4.12−5.66−0.26−3.09+0.45+2.05−0.34−0.57+2.611+6.05+2.14+1.01−1.82−0.91−3.51−1.31−0.83+1.43+2.61−1.71+0.32+1.93+2.30−0.50−0.63−11.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 10 matches

Hibernian

3−2.54−1.29+2.24−2.99+3.13−4.810+1.23−3.79+2.25−0.57+1.62−2.86−0.46+1.63−0.85+2.60−1.44+0.54+0.82+1.10−1.42+1.41−0.21−0.40−0.92+1.61−0.41+0.60−1.110−6.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 11 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.020.010.010.010.030.010.060.100.050.020.030.050.040.020.010.030.060.03−0.05−0.010.060.100.040.34LessMore

Hibernian

0.010.010.030.030.010.040.030.020.010.010.100.020.020.050.070.020.040.040.04−0.010.040.10−0.010.24LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.21AttackKilmarnock1.04 → 1.01Hibernian1.25 → 1.22Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.32 → 1.30Hibernian1.18 → 1.15

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six54%46%−8
11th4%5%+1
Bottom1%2%+1
Hibernian
Top six95%98%+3
Livingston
Top six40%42%+2
11th6%6%0

From the forecast before the match (24 October 2020): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockHibernian
Expected goals1.041.47
Win26%47%
Expected Points1.061.67
Clean sheet23%35%

Kilmarnock 26%Draw 27%Hibernian 47%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 50%.

Hibernian goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+9%9%4%2%8%9%4%2%4%6%5%2%2%2%2%11%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 24 October 2020: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawHibernian win
Kilmarnock
Top six54%68%55%46%
11th4%2%4%5%
Bottom1%<1%1%2%
Hibernian
Top six95%91%95%98%
Livingston
Top six40%37%41%42%
11th6%6%5%6%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. W3–117 OctLivingston (A)xG 2.27–1.53
  2. W1–026 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.65–0.49
  3. W2–119 SepHamilton Academical (H)xG 1.88–1.57
  4. L0–112 SepAberdeen (A)xG 0.49–1.76
  5. W4–029 AugDundee United (H)xG 1.15–1.04
  6. L0–222 AugRangers (A)xG 0.10–2.93

Hibernian

  1. D0–017 OctRoss County (A)xG 2.70–0.63
  2. W3–22 OctHamilton Academical (H)xG 2.97–1.80
  3. L0–327 SepCeltic (A)xG 0.60–1.94
  4. D2–220 SepRangers (H)xG 0.60–3.01
  5. W3–012 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.09–1.24
  6. L0–130 AugAberdeen (H)xG 0.46–1.73

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockHibernian
Position5th4th
Played1011
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠2–⁠46–⁠3–⁠2
Points14 (1.40 per game)21 (1.91 per game)
Expected Points per game1.091.54
Goals15–⁠1216–⁠10
xG per game1.02–⁠1.491.57–⁠1.34
Home: points, xG per game1.75, 1.24–⁠1.251.60, 1.33–⁠1.63
Away: points, xG per game1.17, 0.88–⁠1.652.17, 1.78–⁠1.10
ManagerAlex Dyer (10)Jack Ross (11)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.21AttackKilmarnock1.04, 6thHibernian1.25, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.32, 7thHibernian1.18, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctKilmarnock attack: 1.04Hibernian attack: 1.251.251.04HibernianKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctKilmarnock defence: 1.32Hibernian defence: 1.181.321.18

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−21%+8%+22%−13%
Counter-attacks−82%−65%−66%−84%
Set pieces−39%+46%+20%−4%
Penalties+5%−47%−5%+91%
Headers−53%−13%+45%−18%
Left side−10%+26%+10%+8%
Centre−48%+17%+36%−40%
Right side−10%+9%−3%+14%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHibernian concededLeft side−10%+14%Centre−48%−40%Right side−10%+8%Open play−21%−13%Counter-attacks−82%−84%Set pieces−39%−4%Headers−53%−18%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+10%+9%Centre+36%+17%Right side−3%+26%Open play+22%+8%Counter-attacks−66%−65%Set pieces+20%+46%Headers+45%−13%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockHibernian

1.02xG1.57
1.49xG against1.34
42%Possession47%
9.8Shots13.0
15.3Shots against13.9
3.8Shots on target4.2
1.2Big chances1.9
13.0Touches in the opposition box28.3
340Passes368
69%Pass accuracy70%
4.8Corners5.3
43%Field tilt39%
37.3Final-third entries35.7
9.3Box entries11.7
15.1Passes per defensive action16.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level381.081.39
Ahead250.891.94
Behind271.071.21

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.711.13
Ahead321.731.54
Behind140.721.56

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.241–4
16–300.270.154–2
31–450.190.183–1
46–600.200.203–1
61–750.120.272–0
76–900.170.442–4

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.330.152–1
16–300.170.114–0
31–450.300.344–4
46–600.090.301–2
61–750.390.193–1
76–900.290.252–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWRogers 9Eastwood 1Millen 7Rossi 2McGowan 1Broadfoot 10Findlay 9Dikamona 1Waters 10Power 7Kabamba 3Tshibola 10Kiltie 1Dicker 9Burke 10Kabamba 6Brophy 4Kiltie 5Pinnock 2McKenzie 24-3-3 in 5 of 10 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (5), 4-4-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (2)

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMarciano 11P. McGinn 10Boyle 1Porteous 11Hanlon 11Doig 6Gogic 2Stevenson 2Boyle 8P. McGinn 1Newell 1Gogic 7Wright 2Boyle 1Newell 10Magennis 1Horgan 4Doig 3Murphy 2Doidge 10Boyle 1Wright 1Nisbet 94-4-2 in 6 of 11 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (6), 3-5-2 (3), 4-1-3-2 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
1 August 2020Hibernian2–1KilmarnockxG 1.18–0.70

1 league meeting since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 0, Hibernian won 1, and 0 were drawn. Goals 1–2 and xG 0.70–1.18 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Burke10816420.300.26
Kiltie6535220.150.08
Kabamba9807400.200.02
Tshibola10883200.150.04

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nisbet9791610.680.08
Doidge10913310.390.11
Boyle11987330.220.15
Newell11881120.040.24

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.