Matches › 2022/23

St. Mirren 1–0 Hibernian

Saturday 27 August 2022, 15:00 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 5 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Graham Grainger · Attendance 5,343

St. Mirren Baccus 6'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Measure	St. Mirren	Hibernian
Goals	1	0
xG	1.37	0.80
Expected Points	1.79	0.90

St. Mirren 50%Draw 30%Hibernian 20%

Most likely score 1–1, 16%. Final score 1–0, 15%.

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenHibernian

1.37 +0.02xG0.80 −0.43

0.73 −0.66xG on target0.04 −0.64

14 +3Shots14 −2

2 −1.5Shots on target1 −2.5

3 +0.8Big chances1 −0.2

30% −6Possession70% +11

194 −66Passes455 +66

54% −7Pass accuracy81% +3

34% −5Field tilt66% 0

21 −10Final-third entries58 +10

11 −2Box entries11 −4

18.6 −1Passes per defensive action9.8 −1

4 −2.2Corners10 +1.2

20 +7Tackles17 +6

5 −1.8Interceptions4 −3.0

28 +7Clearances26 +10

1 −1.8Saves1 −1.5

8 −5Fouls12 −4

2 +1.0Offsides1 −1.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Zones Shots

St. Mirren

Hibernian

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenHibernian

0.85 9 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.66 9 shots, 0 goals

0.11 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

0.42 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.14 5 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

1–0

Level: 6 min (6%) · St. Mirren 0.17, Hibernian 0.00 xG
St. Mirren ahead: 92 min (94%) · St. Mirren 1.20, Hibernian 0.80 xG

Line-ups

St. Mirren substitutes

67' Brophy for Ayunga
76' Kiltie for Main
79' Gogic for Erhahon

Hibernian substitutes

57' Melkersen for Youan
69' Henderson for Campbell
70' Stevenson for Cabraja
87' Miller for Cadden
87' Bojang for Doidge

Players

St. Mirren

Player	Pos	Min	G	A	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Carson	GK	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.01	1	0
Strain	RWB	90		1	0.00	0.14	2	0.17	5	6
Fraser	CB	90			0.00	0.04	2	0.11	5	5
Gallagher	CB	90			0.00	0.02	1	0.00	0	7
Dunne	CB	90			0.00	0.00	1	0.01	1	8
Tait	LWB	90			0.00	0.01	0	0.01	1	11
Baccus	CM	90	1		0.62	0.00	0	0.02	1	5
Erhahon	CM	79			0.00	0.18	1	0.01	2	4
O'Hara	CM	90			0.04	0.02	0	0.01	3	3
Ayunga	ST	67			0.13	0.06	1	0.15	3	3
Main	ST	76			0.33	0.08	1	0.09	2	2
Brophy	FW	23			0.21	0.00	0	0.02	2	2
Kiltie	MF	14			0.00	0.03	1	0.00	0	0
Gogic	DF	11			0.04	0.00	0	0.00	0	0

Hibernian

Player	Pos	Min	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Marshall	GK	90	0.00	0.00	0	0.01	1	0
Cadden	RB	87	0.19	0.09	3	0.17	10	2
Porteous	CB	90	0.02	0.04	2	0.07	11	5
Hanlon	CB	90	0.00	0.01	0	0.08	10	15
Cabraja	LB	70	0.02	0.01	1	0.06	7	6
Doyle-Hayes	DM	90	0.00	0.05	2	0.10	8	3
Newell	DM	90	0.02	0.07	1	0.01	2	8
Boyle	RW	90	0.00	0.09	2	0.20	5	0
Campbell	AM	69	0.00	0.06	1	0.08	3	0
Youan	LW	57	0.40	0.01	0	0.01	2	1
Doidge	ST	87	0.15	0.03	1	0.02	1	2
Melkersen	FW	33	0.00	0.00	0	0.01	1	2
Henderson	FW	21	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	2	1
Stevenson	DF	20	0.00	0.03	0	0.13	8	3
Miller	DF	3	0.00	0.00	0	0.01	0	1
Bojang	FW	3	0.00	0.00	0	–	–	0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

Hibernian

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

From	To	Passes
Carson	Main	8
Strain	Fraser	6
Tait	Main	5
Erhahon	Strain	4
Fraser	Baccus	4

Hibernian

From	To	Passes
Porteous	Cadden	17
Cadden	Porteous	16
Hanlon	Cabraja	14
Doyle-Hayes	Cadden	12
Doyle-Hayes	Cabraja	11

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

Against its average of 4 matches

Hibernian

Against its average of 4 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

Hibernian

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

Chance	Before	With this result	Change
St. Mirren
Top six	25%	34%	+9
11th	13%	9%	−4
Bottom	9%	6%	−3
Hibernian
Top six	73%	63%	−10
11th	2%	2%	0
Bottom	1%	1%	0
Dundee United
Top six	11%	11%	0
11th	19%	21%	+2
Bottom	20%	20%	0

From the forecast before the match (27 August 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Measure	St. Mirren	Hibernian
Expected goals	1.01	1.15
Win	31%	38%
Expected Points	1.24	1.45
Clean sheet	32%	36%

St. Mirren 31%Draw 31%Hibernian 38%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 44%.

From the forecast as it stood on 27 August 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

Chance	Now	St. Mirren win	Draw	Hibernian win
St. Mirren
Top six	25%	34%	24%	18%
11th	13%	9%	13%	15%
Bottom	9%	6%	9%	12%
Hibernian
Top six	73%	63%	72%	81%
11th	2%	2%	2%	1%
Bottom	1%	1%	1%	<1%
Dundee United
Top six	11%	11%	11%	10%
11th	19%	21%	18%	18%
Bottom	20%	20%	20%	20%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

Hibernian

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Measure	St. Mirren	Hibernian
Position	6th	8th
Played	4	4
Won, drawn, lost	2–⁠0–⁠2	1–⁠2–⁠1
Points	6 (1.50 per game)	5 (1.25 per game)
Expected Points per game	1.30	1.49
Goals	5–⁠5	5–⁠5
xG per game	1.35–⁠1.53	1.23–⁠1.03
Home: points, xG per game	1.50, 1.31–⁠0.75	1.00, 1.14–⁠1.27
Away: points, xG per game	1.50, 1.39–⁠2.31	1.50, 1.32–⁠0.80
Manager	Steve Robinson (8)	Lee Johnson (4)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

This season

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Chances	St. Mirren		Hibernian
Chances	Created	Conceded	Created	Conceded
Open play	−16%	+20%	+3%	−20%
Counter-attacks	+335%	−18%	−39%	−62%
Set pieces	−27%	−24%	+23%	−21%
Penalties	+52%	+198%	−69%	+65%
Headers	+27%	−3%	+63%	+2%
Left side	−26%	+25%	+29%	+4%
Centre	+6%	+4%	−14%	−47%
Right side	−6%	average	+15%	−11%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdHibernian concededLeft side−26%−11%Centre+6%−47%Right side−6%+4%Open play−16%−20%Counter-attacks+335%−62%Set pieces−27%−21%Headers+27%+2%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side+29%averageCentre−14%+4%Right side+15%+25%Open play+3%+20%Counter-attacks−39%−18%Set pieces+23%−24%Headers+63%−3%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenHibernian

1.35xG1.23

1.53xG against1.03

36%Possession59%

11.2Shots15.8

12.5Shots against9.2

3.5Shots on target3.5

2.2Big chances1.2

260Passes390

61%Pass accuracy78%

6.2Corners8.8

38%Field tilt66%

30.9Final-third entries48.5

12.8Box entries15.0

19.3Passes per defensive action10.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	39	1.32	1.65
Ahead	22	1.31	0.74
Behind	28	1.41	2.01

Hibernian

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	52	0.75	1.17
Ahead	0	–	–
Behind	38	1.87	0.85

xG by period

St. Mirren

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.07	0.14	0–0
16–30	0.17	0.34	0–1
31–45	0.34	0.42	1–3
46–60	0.35	0.24	3–0
61–75	0.08	0.12	0–0
76–90	0.33	0.28	1–1

Hibernian

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.09	0.11	0–1
16–30	0.06	0.09	0–1
31–45	0.16	0.32	0–1
46–60	0.29	0.30	2–1
61–75	0.11	0.04	0–0
76–90	0.51	0.17	3–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

Hibernian

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (3), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

Date	Home	Score	Away	xG
23 April 2022	St. Mirren	0–1	Hibernian	xG 0.69–0.72
5 February 2022	Hibernian	0–1	St. Mirren	xG 1.22–0.38
11 December 2021	St. Mirren	1–1	Hibernian	xG 0.60–1.06
18 September 2021	Hibernian	2–2	St. Mirren	xG 2.10–0.82
2 February 2021	St. Mirren	1–2	Hibernian	xG 0.65–1.60
23 December 2020	Hibernian	1–0	St. Mirren	xG 0.86–0.85

7 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 1, Hibernian won 4, and 2 were drawn. Goals 5–10 and xG 0.75–1.24 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
Greive	10	937	3	1	0.38	0.03
Brophy	23	1,980	7	1	0.30	0.01
Tanser	31	2,623	2	4	0.06	0.21
Main	19	1,895	4	1	0.20	0.03

Hibernian

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
Boyle	21	1,943	9	3	0.31	0.20
Henderson	14	1,189	1	1	0.18	0.21
Doidge	6	899	2	0	0.33	0.06
Melkersen	10	744	0	1	0.27	0.03

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes. Until a side has played six matches, last season's minutes at the club count too.