Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Dundee FC 2–2 Kilmarnock

Saturday 23 September 2023, 15:00 · Kilmac Stadium at Dens Park · Round 6 · Half-time 1–1 · Referee David Munro · Attendance 6,101

Dundee FC Bakayoko 16', Rudden 90+3' · Mulligan sent off 34'

Kilmarnock Armstrong 30' (pen), 81'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Dundee FCKilmarnock
Goals22
xG1.493.56
Non-penalty xG1.492.77
Expected Points0.282.60

Dundee FC 5%Draw 12%Kilmarnock 83%

Most likely score 1–3, 12%. Final score 2–2, 7%.

Kilmarnock goalsDundee FC goals0123456+0123456+2%3%3%2%2%7%6%4%2%7%6%3%2%3%2%1%12%11%10%9%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

012340153045607590HTMulligan (Dundee FC), red card 34'McInnes (Kilmarnock), red card 90+5'Robertson on for Tiffoney, 46'Rudden on for Robinson, 63'Kerr on for McGhee, 77'Cameron on for McCowan, 86'Dallas on for Watkins, 36'Davies on for Deas, 46'Polworth on for Lyons, 73'McKenzie on for Armstrong, 89'Bakayoko 16'Rudden 90+3'Armstrong 30' (pen)Armstrong 81'Kilmarnock 3.56Dundee FC 1.49012340153045607590HTMulligan (Dundee FC), red card 34'McInnes (Kilmarnock), red card 90+5'Robertson on for Tiffoney, 46'Rudden on for Robinson, 63'Kerr on for McGhee, 77'Cameron on for McCowan, 86'Dallas on for Watkins, 36'Davies on for Deas, 46'Polworth on for Lyons, 73'McKenzie on for Armstrong, 89'Bakayoko 16'Rudden 90+3'Armstrong 30' (pen)Armstrong 81'3.561.49Dundee FCKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Dundee FCKilmarnock

1.49 −0.05xG3.56 +2.65
1.49Non-penalty xG2.77
2.00 +0.58xG on target1.80 +0.60
10 0Shots23 +10
3 0.0Shots on target3 −0.8
2 −0.8Big chances4 +2.8
38% −1Possession62% +17
285 −15Passes446 +104
67% +2Pass accuracy81% +17
28% −8Field tilt72% +25
30 −1Final-third entries61 +27
5 −4.2Box entries24 +12.2
26.4 +9Passes per defensive action10.7 −5
4 0.0Corners7 +0.8
14 −3Tackles12 −2
10 −1.0Interceptions9 +2.4
35 +5Clearances13 −4
1 −1.2Saves1 −2.2
8 −3Fouls12 −1
1 0.0Offsides0 −0.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Dundee FC

Rudden 90+1', 0.12 xGBeck 10', 0.06 xGMcGhee 5', 0.03 xGBeck 10', 0.03 xGShaughnessy 16', 0.03 xGBakayoko 15', 0.02 xGMcCowan 80', 0.01 xGRobertson 83', 0.01 xGBakayoko 16', 0.76 xG, goalRudden 90+3', 0.41 xG, goal79%1.17 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 1.17 xG, 2 goals12%0.18 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals5%0.08 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals1%0.02 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Kennedy 45+3', 0.49 xGVassell 13', 0.28 xGArmstrong 51', 0.22 xGVassell 19', 0.16 xGWright 73', 0.15 xGVassell 26', 0.11 xGKennedy 3', 0.07 xGKennedy 25', 0.07 xGLyons 26', 0.07 xGVassell 45+5', 0.07 xGLyons 54', 0.06 xGArmstrong 25', 0.05 xGArmstrong 44', 0.05 xGWatkins 26', 0.04 xGPolworth 90+5', 0.04 xGFindlay 7', 0.03 xGWright 47', 0.03 xGVassell 74', 0.03 xGWright 85', 0.03 xGKennedy 45+1', 0.02 xGKennedy 85', 0.02 xGArmstrong 81', 0.70 xG, goal20%0.56 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.56 xG, 0 goals66%1.84 xGCentral box: 11 shots, 1.84 xG, 1 goal5%0.15 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals7%0.20 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals1%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Dundee FCKilmarnock

0.14 5 shots, 0 goalsOpen play2.15 13 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.29 2 shots, 0 goals
1.36 5 shots, 2 goalsSet pieces0.32 7 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
74 min (74%) · Dundee FC 0.94, Kilmarnock 2.22 xG
Dundee FC ahead
14 min (14%) · Dundee FC 0.00, Kilmarnock 1.28 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
12 min (12%) · Dundee FC 0.55, Kilmarnock 0.05 xG

Line-ups

31651231523171697CarsonMcGheeShaughnessyLamieBeckMulliganBoatengMcCowanRobinsonBakayokoTiffoneySent offGoal77'86'63'46'Dundee FC 4-3-3Tony Docherty1541761181610239DennisMayoWrightFindlayDeasArmstrongLyonsMagennisKennedyWatkinsVassellYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoalYellow card46'89'73'36'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Derek McInnes

Dundee FC substitutes

  • 46' Robertson for Tiffoney
  • 63' Rudden for Robinson · yellow card 68', goal 90+3'
  • 77' Kerr for McGhee
  • 86' Cameron for McCowan

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 36' Dallas for Watkins · 1 assist
  • 46' Davies for Deas
  • 73' Polworth for Lyons
  • 89' McKenzie for Armstrong

Players

Dundee FC

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
CarsonGK900.000.0000.0330
McGheeRB770.030.0400.0165
ShaughnessyCB9010.030.0110.04214
LamieCB9010.000.5820.1268
BeckLB900.090.2020.09414
Mulligan CM340.000.0200.0542
BoatengCM900.000.0100.0337
McCowanCM860.010.0100.0034
RobinsonRW630.000.000−0.0305
BakayokoST9010.780.020−0.0301
TiffoneyLW460.000.0000.0341
RobertsonMF440.010.0110.0241
Rudden FW2710.540.0000.0012
KerrDF130.000.0110.0213
CameronMF40.000.0000.0100

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DennisGK900.000.0000.0450
MayoRB900.000.0300.08125
Wright CB900.200.0110.12811
FindlayCB900.030.0400.1157
Deas LB460.000.0300.0573
Armstrong RM8921.800.9850.49134
LyonsCM730.130.2750.3661
MagennisCM900.000.0600.0455
KennedyLM900.680.5050.61221
WatkinsST360.040.010−0.1101
VassellST900.650.3120.1731
DallasFW5410.000.3410.0810
DaviesMF440.00––0.021–
PolworthMF170.040.0200.0860
McKenzieMF10.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Dundee FC

McGhee and Mulligan: 3 passesMcGhee and Bakayoko: 3 passesShaughnessy and Mulligan: 3 passesLamie and Bakayoko: 3 passesBeck and Bakayoko: 3 passesMulligan and Tiffoney: 3 passesShaughnessy and Boateng: 4 passesMulligan and Robinson: 4 passesCarson and Lamie: 5 passesMcGhee and Shaughnessy: 5 passesMcGhee and McCowan: 5 passesLamie and Beck: 6 passesBeck and McCowan: 6 passesShaughnessy and Lamie: 9 passesCarson: 7 completed passesMcGhee: 8 completed passesShaughnessy: 12 completed passesLamie: 13 completed passesBeck: 12 completed passesBoateng: 7 completed passesMcCowan: 8 completed passesMulligan: 11 completed passesRobinson: 3 completed passesBakayoko: 6 completed passesTiffoney: 3 completed passes31651232317151697CarsonMcGheeShaughnessyLamieBeckBoatengMcCowanMulliganRobinsonBakayokoTiffoneyStarters until 34' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Kilmarnock

Mayo and Lyons: 3 passesArmstrong and Magennis: 3 passesKennedy and Watkins: 3 passesWatkins and Vassell: 3 passesDennis and Lyons: 4 passesFindlay and Kennedy: 4 passesLyons and Watkins: 4 passesDeas and Kennedy: 5 passesArmstrong and Vassell: 5 passesKennedy and Vassell: 5 passesDennis and Wright: 8 passesArmstrong and Watkins: 8 passesDennis: 8 completed passesMayo: 4 completed passesWright: 7 completed passesFindlay: 7 completed passesDeas: 6 completed passesArmstrong: 11 completed passesMagennis: 5 completed passesLyons: 12 completed passesKennedy: 10 completed passesWatkins: 7 completed passesVassell: 6 completed passes1541761116810239DennisMayoWrightFindlayDeasArmstrongMagennisLyonsKennedyWatkinsVassellStarters until 36' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Dundee FC

FromToPasses
McGheeBakayoko8
ShaughnessyLamie7
LamieBeck6
BeckLamie6
ShaughnessyBoateng6

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
DennisWright15
FindlayKennedy11
DallasArmstrong11
MayoArmstrong9
WrightFindlay9

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Dundee FC

5−0.89−1.820+0.813+2.214+4.49−0.212+5.23−2.66−2.410+1.64−3.42−2.84+0.87−0.23−3.40−3.81−0.83+0.23−0.26+4.22+0.20−0.420.02−1.80−0.81+0.800.01+0.60−0.60−6.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 5 matches

Kilmarnock

4−3.011−0.89+3.26+2.660.010+1.47−0.46−2.680.06+1.67−0.46+1.44−3.46+0.250.01−2.61−3.23−1.02−2.42−0.86+4.22+1.21−1.02−0.81+0.61+0.81+0.21+0.60−0.60−4.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 5 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Dundee FC

0.030.010.010.010.010.020.020.040.030.020.020.010.020.01−0.020.04−0.010.020.010.07LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.020.010.020.030.020.020.030.030.040.040.130.040.080.130.010.010.100.140.270.010.070.120.010.15−0.230.150.71LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackDundee FC1.04 → 1.03Kilmarnock1.12 → 1.16Defence (lower is better)Dundee FC1.51 → 1.59Kilmarnock1.36 → 1.35

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Dundee FC
Top six21%18%−3
11th16%16%0
Bottom21%23%+2
Kilmarnock
Top six39%39%0
11th9%9%0
Bottom7%6%−1
St. Mirren
Top six55%55%0
11th5%5%0
Bottom3%3%0
St. Johnstone
Top six11%11%0
11th20%21%+1
Bottom28%28%0

From the forecast before the match (23 September 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Dundee FCKilmarnock
Expected goals1.301.17
Win39%32%
Expected Points1.461.26
Clean sheet31%27%

Dundee FC 39%Draw 28%Kilmarnock 32%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 51%.

Kilmarnock goalsDundee FC goals0123456+0123456+9%9%6%2%8%3%7%8%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%10%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 23 September 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowDundee FC winDrawKilmarnock win
Dundee FC
Top six21%29%18%13%
11th16%13%16%19%
Bottom21%14%23%28%
Kilmarnock
Top six39%31%39%49%
11th9%12%9%6%
Bottom7%9%6%4%
St. Mirren
Top six55%56%55%52%
11th5%4%5%6%
Bottom3%3%3%3%
St. Johnstone
Top six11%11%11%11%
11th20%20%21%20%
Bottom28%30%28%27%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Dundee FC

  1. L0–316 SepCeltic (A)xG 0.81–3.17
  2. D2–22 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.44–1.75
  3. W1–027 AugHearts (H)xG 1.52–0.86
  4. L1–212 AugSt. Mirren (A)xG 2.31–1.28
  5. D1–15 AugMotherwell (H)xG 1.60–0.76
  6. L1–215 MayLivingston (A)xG 1.58–1.48

Kilmarnock

  1. D2–216 SepHibernian (H)xG 0.83–0.92
  2. L0–12 SepRoss County (H)xG 1.42–0.72
  3. L1–226 AugMotherwell (A)xG 1.05–2.15
  4. D0–013 AugHearts (A)xG 0.73–0.39
  5. W1–05 AugRangers (H)xG 0.52–1.36
  6. W3–128 MayRoss County (H)xG 1.46–1.25

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Dundee FCKilmarnock
Position9th8th
Played55
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠2–⁠21–⁠2–⁠2
Points5 (1.00 per game)5 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.461.23
Goals5–⁠84–⁠5
xG per game1.54–⁠1.560.91–⁠1.11
Home: points, xG per game2.00, 1.56–⁠0.811.33, 0.92–⁠1.00
Away: points, xG per game0.33, 1.52–⁠2.070.50, 0.89–⁠1.27
ManagerTony Docherty (5)Derek McInnes (43)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackDundee FC1.04, 10thKilmarnock1.12, 7thDefence (lower is better)Dundee FC1.51, 12thKilmarnock1.36, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepDundee FC attack: 1.04Kilmarnock attack: 1.121.121.04KilmarnockDundee FCDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepDundee FC defence: 1.51Kilmarnock defence: 1.361.511.36

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Dundee FCKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+20%+36%−54%−8%
Counter-attacks−43%−83%−41%−84%
Set pieces+21%−3%+30%−13%
Penalties+20%+20%+12%+19%
Headers+17%+66%−3%−26%
Left side+36%+34%+13%−45%
Centre+19%+18%−50%−3%
Right side−13%+1%−38%−7%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Dundee FC attacking

Dundee FC createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+36%−7%Centre+19%−3%Right side−13%−45%Open play+20%−8%Counter-attacks−43%−84%Set pieces+21%−13%Headers+17%−26%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdDundee FC concededLeft side+13%+1%Centre−50%+18%Right side−38%+34%Open play−54%+36%Counter-attacks−41%−83%Set pieces+30%−3%Headers−3%+66%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Dundee FCKilmarnock

1.54xG0.91
1.56xG against1.11
39%Possession45%
10.4Shots13.2
13.2Shots against11.6
3.0Shots on target3.8
2.8Big chances1.2
19.0Touches in the opposition box24.5
300Passes342
65%Pass accuracy64%
4.0Corners6.2
36%Field tilt46%
30.6Final-third entries34.0
9.2Box entries11.8
17.3Passes per defensive action15.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Dundee FC

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.151.24
Ahead161.301.98
Behind292.271.84

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level540.691.04
Ahead140.811.72
Behind221.530.87

xG by period

Dundee FC

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.060.130–1
16–300.070.120–0
31–450.380.111–2
46–600.400.311–1
61–750.440.423–2
76–900.190.470–2

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.091–1
16–300.140.100–0
31–450.170.160–0
46–600.090.140–3
61–750.180.212–0
76–900.220.401–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Dundee FC

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTCarson 4McCracken 1Kerr 2McGhee 2Ashcroft 1Shaughnessy 5Lamie 2McGhee 1Ashcroft 1Beck 3McGhee 1Cameron 1McCowan 2Robertson 2Robinson 1McCowan 2Robertson 1Howley 1Boateng 4Beck 2Tiffoney 2McCowan 1Bakayoko 5Robinson 4Boateng 14-4-2 in 2 of 5 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (2), 3-5-2 (2), 4-1-4-1 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTDennis 5Mayo 5Deas 5Wright 1Findlay 4Armstrong 5Watson 4Watkins 1Lyons 5Magennis 5Kennedy 2Ndaba 2Davies 1Kennedy 3Vassell 2Watkins 4Findlay 13-5-2 in 3 of 5 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (3), 4-1-4-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Key players

Dundee FC

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
McCowan5450110.190.23
Beck5450010.030.09
Shaughnessy5450000.010.03

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong363,176990.250.25
Vassell161,380520.310.10
Cameron5634110.200.04
Murray4515000.080.16

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes. Until a side has played six matches, last season's minutes at the club count too.