Digressive Celts

Matches › 2021/22

Hearts 3–0 Livingston

Saturday 25 September 2021, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 7 · Half-time 2–0 · Attendance 16,175

Hearts Smith 25', Boyce 33' (pen), Cochrane 64'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsLivingston
Goals30
xG2.430.12
Non-penalty xG1.640.12
Expected Points2.880.07

Hearts 94%Draw 5%Livingston <1%

Most likely score 2–0, 30%. Final score 3–0, 25%.

Livingston goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+3%16%2%4%3%11%1%3%30%25%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTGnanduillet on for Boyce, 63'Halliday on for Kingsley, 71'Mackay-Steven on for McKay, 77'Haring on for Halkett, 89'Longridge on for Lewis and Oméonga on for Williamson, 46'Anderson on for Bailey, 66'Smith 25'Boyce 33' (pen)Cochrane 64'Hearts 2.43Livingston 0.1201230153045607590HTGnanduillet on for Boyce, 63'Halliday on for Kingsley, 71'Mackay-Steven on for McKay, 77'Haring on for Halkett, 89'Longridge on for Lewis and Oméonga on for Williamson, 46'Anderson on for Bailey, 66'Smith 25'Boyce 33' (pen)Cochrane 64'2.430.12HeartsLivingston

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsLivingston

2.43 +1.14xG0.12 −0.55
1.64Non-penalty xG0.12
2.60 +1.27xG on target0.13 −0.48
14 +1.8Shots3 −5.8
6 +2.3Shots on target1 −1.5
3 +1.7Big chances0 −0.7
25 +0.8Touches in the opposition box8 +6.0
72% +21Possession28% −11
627 +228Passes239 −44
86% +11Pass accuracy61% 0
83% +34Field tilt17% −18
58 +14Final-third entries17 −6
10 −3.0Box entries2 −5.3
12.8 0Passes per defensive action21.9 +8
4 −1.5Corners1 −3.5
13 −4Tackles19 0
4 −6Interceptions9 −2
11 −9Clearances10 −15
1 −3.3Saves3 −1.0
7 −4Fouls22 +7
3 +0.3Offsides0 −1.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

McKay 61', 0.55 xGKingsley 50', 0.18 xGKingsley 18', 0.16 xGHalkett 18', 0.08 xGKingsley 25', 0.07 xGWoodburn 49', 0.06 xGBaningime 18', 0.05 xGMoore 51', 0.03 xGGnanduillet 80', 0.03 xGGnanduillet 74', 0.02 xGSmith 45+2', 0.01 xGCochrane 64', 0.28 xG, goalSmith 25', 0.11 xG, goal27%0.44 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.44 xG, 1 goal50%0.81 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.81 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals23%0.38 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.38 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Livingston

Shinnie 69', 0.06 xGBailey 36', 0.04 xGAnderson 80', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGCentral box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals17%0.02 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals83%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsLivingston

1.00 6 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.08 2 shots, 0 goals
0.63 7 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.04 1 shot, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
25 min (27%) · Hearts 0.47, Livingston 0.00 xG
Hearts ahead
67 min (73%) · Hearts 1.96, Livingston 0.12 xG

Line-ups

11519326141718109GordonMooreHalkettKingsleySmithBaningimeDevlinCochraneMcKayBoyceWoodburnGoalGoalGoal89'71'77'63'Hearts 3-4-3Robbie Neilson3226529211812162214StryjekDevlinObileyeFitzwaterPenriceMcMillanHoltWilliamsonLewisShinnieBaileyYellow cardYellow card46'46'66'Livingston 4-4-2David Martindale

Hearts substitutes

  • 63' Gnanduillet for Boyce
  • 71' Halliday for Kingsley
  • 77' Mackay-Steven for McKay
  • 89' Haring for Halkett

Livingston substitutes

  • 46' Longridge for Lewis
  • 46' Oméonga for Williamson · yellow card 76'
  • 66' Anderson for Bailey

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0220
MooreCB900.030.5910.39215
HalkettCB890.080.0100.2233
KingsleyCB710.410.0100.0883
SmithRWB9010.120.0200.0151
BaningimeCM900.050.051−0.0312
DevlinCM900.000.1410.03111
CochraneLWB9010.280.1320.19141
McKayRW7710.550.5020.36122
BoyceST6310.790.0100.0000
WoodburnLW900.060.040−0.0651
GnanduilletFW270.060.0200.0100
HallidayMF190.000.0100.0140
Mackay-StevenFW130.000.0000.0000
HaringMF10.000.0000.0111

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
StryjekGK900.000.0100.0790
DevlinRB900.000.0200.0464
ObileyeCB900.000.0100.0754
Fitzwater CB900.000.0310.0127
PenriceLB900.000.0000.0114
McMillanRM900.000.020−0.0213
HoltCM900.000.000−0.0102
WilliamsonCM460.000.0000.0003
LewisLM460.000.0000.0014
Shinnie ST900.060.0500.0105
BaileyST660.040.0000.0111
LongridgeDF440.000.0000.0011
Oméonga MF440.000.0000.0004
AndersonFW240.020.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Gordon and Moore: 6 passesKingsley and Baningime: 6 passesKingsley and Woodburn: 6 passesHalkett and Baningime: 6 passesCochrane and Baningime: 6 passesDevlin and Woodburn: 6 passesGordon and Halkett: 7 passesMoore and Baningime: 7 passesHalkett and Woodburn: 7 passesCochrane and Devlin: 8 passesHalkett and Smith: 9 passesCochrane and Woodburn: 10 passesSmith and Baningime: 11 passesDevlin and Baningime: 11 passesMoore and Devlin: 13 passesKingsley and Devlin: 14 passesHalkett and Devlin: 14 passesKingsley and Cochrane: 16 passesMoore and Smith: 20 passesSmith and McKay: 20 passesMoore and McKay: 22 passesKingsley and Halkett: 31 passesMoore and Halkett: 39 passesGordon: 14 completed passesMoore: 58 completed passesKingsley: 43 completed passesHalkett: 62 completed passesSmith: 44 completed passesCochrane: 34 completed passesDevlin: 38 completed passesBaningime: 28 completed passesMcKay: 23 completed passesBoyce: 8 completed passesWoodburn: 20 completed passes11531921714618109GordonMooreKingsleyHalkettSmithCochraneDevlinBaningimeMcKayBoyceWoodburnStarters until 63' · lines join pairs with 6+ passes

Livingston

Devlin and Holt: 3 passesDevlin and Bailey: 3 passesHolt and Bailey: 3 passesStryjek and Obileye: 4 passesDevlin and Shinnie: 4 passesFitzwater and Holt: 4 passesStryjek and Devlin: 5 passesLewis and Bailey: 6 passesStryjek and Fitzwater: 8 passesFitzwater and Penrice: 9 passesStryjek: 14 completed passesDevlin: 11 completed passesFitzwater: 12 completed passesObileye: 5 completed passesPenrice: 10 completed passesMcMillan: 2 completed passesWilliamson: 3 completed passesHolt: 9 completed passesLewis: 3 completed passesBailey: 7 completed passesShinnie: 3 completed passes3225629211218161422StryjekDevlinFitzwaterObileyePenriceMcMillanWilliamsonHoltLewisBaileyShinnieStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
HalkettMoore36
MooreMcKay19
HalkettKingsley18
MooreDevlin16
DevlinMoore15

Livingston

FromToPasses
StryjekDevlin6
PenriceFitzwater6
DevlinShinnie6
FitzwaterStryjek5
DevlinObileye5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

3−2.01−4.710+1.53−2.82−5.04−1.87+1.72−5.23−4.51−4.75−0.56+0.33−4.58+3.37+2.52−1.73−1.02−2.05+1.330.02+0.80−1.82−0.34+1.32+1.80−0.71+0.70−0.30−0.82−7.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 6 matches

Livingston

6+1.23−4.58+1.210+1.77−0.38+0.38+2.05−4.090.012+6.52−2.77+3.85+0.28+3.31−4.02−0.31−1.02−0.76+2.22−0.51+0.22+1.01−1.71−1.21−1.30−0.50−0.70−0.71+0.311−7.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 6 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.060.040.030.010.030.030.040.010.020.050.130.050.030.050.070.11−0.02−0.02−0.01−0.040.030.060.47LessMore

Livingston

0.010.030.010.010.01−0.010.020.010.020.010.010.02−0.03−0.01−0.01−0.020.050.04LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.14AttackHearts1.12 → 1.20Livingston0.94 → 0.92Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.05 → 1.00Livingston1.19 → 1.23

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Title2%2%0
Top six86%91%+5
11th1%<1%−1
Bottom<1%<1%0
Livingston
Top six19%14%−5
11th13%15%+2
Bottom6%8%+2

From the forecast before the match (25 September 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsLivingston
Expected goals1.380.78
Win50%21%
Expected Points1.800.91
Clean sheet46%25%

Hearts 50%Draw 29%Livingston 21%

Most likely score 1–0, 15%. Both sides score 41%.

Livingston goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+8%4%5%1%9%3%5%4%2%2%1%12%15%13%11%

From the forecast as it stood on 25 September 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawLivingston win
Hearts
Title2%2%1%1%
Top six86%91%83%77%
11th1%<1%1%1%
Bottom<1%<1%<1%1%
Livingston
Top six19%14%19%29%
11th13%15%12%9%
Bottom6%8%6%3%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. D2–218 SepRoss County (A)xG 1.21–1.44
  2. D0–012 SepHibernian (H)xG 1.23–1.09
  3. W2–028 AugDundee United (A)xG 2.25–0.40
  4. D1–122 AugAberdeen (H)xG 1.17–0.54
  5. W2–17 AugSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.47–0.73
  6. W2–131 JulCeltic (H)xG 1.40–1.49

Livingston

  1. W1–019 SepCeltic (H)xG 0.62–1.24
  2. D0–011 SepDundee FC (A)xG 0.44–1.08
  3. L0–228 AugHibernian (A)xG 0.63–1.05
  4. L1–221 AugMotherwell (H)xG 0.95–2.30
  5. L1–28 AugAberdeen (H)xG 1.30–0.44
  6. L0–331 JulRangers (A)xG 0.07–1.84

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsLivingston
Position3rd9th
Played66
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠3–⁠01–⁠1–⁠4
Points12 (2.00 per game)4 (0.67 per game)
Expected Points per game1.620.89
Goals9–⁠53–⁠9
xG per game1.29–⁠0.950.67–⁠1.32
Home: points, xG per game1.67, 1.27–⁠1.041.00, 0.96–⁠1.33
Away: points, xG per game2.33, 1.31–⁠0.860.33, 0.38–⁠1.32
ManagerRobbie Neilson (6)David Martindale (29)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.14AttackHearts1.12, 4thLivingston0.94, 9thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.05, 6thLivingston1.19, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepHearts attack: 1.12Livingston attack: 0.941.120.94LivingstonHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepHearts defence: 1.05Livingston defence: 1.191.191.05

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsLivingston
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−15%−7%−62%+22%
Counter-attacks−64%−14%+72%−67%
Set pieces+15%−45%−5%+16%
Penalties+140%−100%−100%−100%
Headers−31%−39%−32%+37%
Left side−20%−16%−1%+13%
Centre−11%−43%−58%+15%
Right side+2%+42%−44%+23%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdLivingston concededLeft side−20%+23%Centre−11%+15%Right side+2%+13%Open play−15%+22%Counter-attacks−64%−67%Set pieces+15%+16%Headers−31%+37%

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdHearts concededLeft side−1%+42%Centre−58%−43%Right side−44%−16%Open play−62%−7%Counter-attacks+72%−14%Set pieces−5%−45%Headers−32%−39%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsLivingston

1.29xG0.67
0.95xG against1.32
51%Possession39%
12.2Shots8.8
11.0Shots against16.0
3.7Shots on target2.5
1.3Big chances0.7
24.2Touches in the opposition box2.0
398Passes283
75%Pass accuracy62%
5.5Corners4.5
50%Field tilt34%
44.3Final-third entries22.5
13.0Box entries7.3
12.7Passes per defensive action14.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level561.820.85
Ahead300.341.20
Behind41.070.26

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level540.651.06
Ahead140.781.88
Behind220.631.60

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.200.102–1
16–300.170.051–0
31–450.410.251–1
46–600.290.111–1
61–750.100.072–1
76–900.120.362–1

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.260–1
16–300.080.031–0
31–450.190.182–0
46–600.020.330–3
61–750.180.090–0
76–900.110.440–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWGordon 6Souttar 6Moore 1Halkett 6Cochrane 3Kingsley 2Smith 5McKay 1Baningime 6Woodburn 1Haring 4Halliday 1Halliday 3Cochrane 2Kingsley 1Ginnelly 3Woodburn 2Mackay-Steven 1Boyce 6Mackay-Steven 5Gnanduillet 13-4-3 in 3 of 6 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (3), 3-4-2-1 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1)

Livingston

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWStryjek 6Devlin 5McMillan 1Obileye 6Fitzwater 6Longridge 3Penrice 2Lewis 1Pittman 3Williamson 1Bailey 1Holt 6Sibbald 3Penrice 2Shinnie 2Sibbald 2Williamson 1McMillan 1Anderson 5Shinnie 1Forrest 4Penrice 1Lewis 14-3-3 in 3 of 6 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (3), 4-1-4-1 (2), 4-5-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Boyce6539410.520.06
Souttar6540100.050.03
Cochrane5450000.010.06
Halkett6540000.030.02

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Forrest5451100.110.07
Penrice5450010.020.12
Fitzwater6499000.100.02
Devlin5476000.050.06

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.