Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Kilmarnock 0–2 Aberdeen

Sunday 20 December 2020, 12:00 · Rugby Park · Round 18 · Half-time 0–0

Kilmarnock Haunstrup sent off 90'

Aberdeen Hedges 52', Cosgrove 90'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockAberdeen
Goals02
xG0.361.03
Expected Points0.711.92

Kilmarnock 12%Draw 37%Aberdeen 52%

Most likely score 0–1, 26%. Final score 0–2, 13%.

Aberdeen goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+13%4%8%11%5%1%1%2%25%26%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTHaunstrup (Kilmarnock), red card 90'Kiltie on for McGowan, 29'Whitehall on for Kabamba, 72'Haunstrup on for Findlay, 87'Campbell on for Hoban, 46'Logan on for McLennan and Cosgrove on for Main, 80'Hedges 52'Cosgrove 90'Aberdeen 1.03Kilmarnock 0.3600.511.50153045607590HTHaunstrup (Kilmarnock), red card 90'Kiltie on for McGowan, 29'Whitehall on for Kabamba, 72'Haunstrup on for Findlay, 87'Campbell on for Hoban, 46'Logan on for McLennan and Cosgrove on for Main, 80'Hedges 52'Cosgrove 90'1.030.36KilmarnockAberdeen

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockAberdeen

0.36 −0.63xG1.03 −0.23
0.09 −0.98xG on target0.65 −0.76
7 −2.6Shots14 +3.2
2 −1.2Shots on target3 −0.9
0 −1.1Big chances1 −0.6
16 +1Touches in the opposition box17 −2
48% +4Possession52% +2
364 +15Passes407 −8
69% −1Pass accuracy73% −1
55% +12Field tilt45% −6
40 +4Final-third entries36 0
5 −3.6Box entries12 +2.7
22.8 +7Passes per defensive action12.1 −2
10 +5.8Corners1 −3.8
11 −1Tackles13 +1
6 −5Interceptions13 +2
7 −11Clearances27 +8
1 −1.5Saves2 −0.1
10 −2Fouls15 +1
4 +1.9Offsides2 +0.4

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Findlay 45', 0.10 xGFindlay 9', 0.06 xGMcKenzie 20', 0.05 xGBrophy 51', 0.05 xGKabamba 37', 0.04 xGBrophy 16', 0.03 xGBrophy 88', 0.03 xG28%0.10 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.10 xG, 0 goals28%0.10 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals14%0.05 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals22%0.08 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals8%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Aberdeen

Cosgrove 84', 0.29 xGMain 7', 0.10 xGConsidine 23', 0.07 xGHedges 84', 0.07 xGHoban 43', 0.06 xGHedges 18', 0.05 xGMcLennan 71', 0.05 xGMcLennan 3', 0.04 xGFerguson 7', 0.04 xGMcLennan 19', 0.04 xGMcLennan 67', 0.04 xGMcCrorie 33', 0.03 xGCosgrove 90+6', 0.11 xG, goalHedges 52', 0.04 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals62%0.64 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.64 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals38%0.39 xGEdge of the box: 8 shots, 0.39 xG, 2 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockAberdeen

0.11 3 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.81 11 shots, 1 goal
0.25 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.22 3 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
52 min (54%) · Kilmarnock 0.33, Aberdeen 0.47 xG
Aberdeen ahead
44 min (46%) · Kilmarnock 0.03, Aberdeen 0.56 xG

Line-ups

23251718296277911RogersMcGowanBroadfootFindlayWatersBurkePowerTshibolaMcKenzieBrophyKabambaYellow card29'87'72'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Alex Dyer131443340191711918LewisHobanTaylorConsidineKennedyMcCrorieFergusonHayesHedgesMainMcLennanGoal46'80'80'Aberdeen 3-4-3Derek McInnes

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 29' Kiltie for McGowan
  • 72' Whitehall for Kabamba
  • 87' Haunstrup for Findlay · red card 90'

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 46' Campbell for Hoban
  • 80' Logan for McLennan
  • 80' Cosgrove for Main · goal 90'

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RogersGK900.000.0000.0230
McGowanRB290.000.0310.0330
BroadfootCB900.000.0310.1083
FindlayCB870.160.0100.1084
WatersLB900.000.0310.0356
BurkeRM900.000.0210.0550
PowerCM900.000.0600.1234
Tshibola CM900.000.0200.0124
McKenzieLM900.050.2120.0664
BrophyST900.110.020−0.0501
KabambaST720.040.0100.0001
KiltieFW610.000.010−0.0301
WhitehallFW180.000.0000.0000
Haunstrup DF30.000.010−0.0100

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LewisGK900.000.0010.0220
HobanCB460.060.0300.2445
TaylorCB900.000.0000.0337
ConsidineCB900.070.0100.0758
KennedyRWB900.000.3310.30107
McCrorieCM900.030.0000.0359
FergusonCM900.040.0610.0797
HayesLWB900.000.1320.1483
HedgesRW9010.150.031−0.0214
MainST800.100.0110.0434
McLennanLW800.180.020−0.0431
CampbellMF440.000.0000.0011
LoganDF100.000.0100.0110
CosgroveFW1010.390.0000.0920

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

McGowan and Burke: 3 passesMcGowan and Brophy: 3 passesFindlay and Waters: 3 passesWaters and Power: 3 passesWaters and Tshibola: 3 passesWaters and Kabamba: 3 passesWaters and Brophy: 3 passesMcGowan and Broadfoot: 4 passesRogers: 1 completed passesMcGowan: 8 completed passesFindlay: 7 completed passesBroadfoot: 6 completed passesWaters: 10 completed passesBurke: 4 completed passesPower: 8 completed passesTshibola: 5 completed passesMcKenzie: 3 completed passesKabamba: 2 completed passesBrophy: 5 completed passes23217518296277119RogersMcGowanFindlayBroadfootWatersBurkePowerTshibolaMcKenzieKabambaBrophyStarters until 29' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Aberdeen

Lewis and Taylor: 4 passesHoban and Ferguson: 4 passesHoban and McLennan: 4 passesTaylor and Hayes: 4 passesConsidine and Hedges: 4 passesConsidine and McLennan: 4 passesKennedy and McCrorie: 4 passesKennedy and Ferguson: 4 passesKennedy and Main: 4 passesKennedy and McLennan: 4 passesFerguson and Hedges: 4 passesHedges and Main: 4 passesMain and McLennan: 4 passesHoban and Taylor: 5 passesTaylor and Considine: 5 passesTaylor and McCrorie: 5 passesHayes and Hedges: 6 passesHoban and Kennedy: 7 passesHoban and McCrorie: 7 passesHayes and McLennan: 7 passesMcCrorie and Ferguson: 7 passesConsidine and Ferguson: 9 passesFerguson and McLennan: 9 passesKennedy and Hedges: 12 passesHayes and Ferguson: 12 passesConsidine and Hayes: 16 passesLewis: 8 completed passesHoban: 20 completed passesTaylor: 18 completed passesConsidine: 29 completed passesKennedy: 22 completed passesHayes: 22 completed passesMcCrorie: 16 completed passesFerguson: 28 completed passesHedges: 15 completed passesMain: 7 completed passesMcLennan: 14 completed passes131443317401911918LewisHobanTaylorConsidineKennedyHayesMcCrorieFergusonHedgesMainMcLennanStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
TshibolaBroadfoot9
PowerBroadfoot8
WatersTshibola7
WatersFindlay7
TshibolaWaters6

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
ConsidineHayes11
TaylorMcCrorie10
ConsidineTaylor8
FergusonMcLennan8
McCrorieKennedy8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

2−1.46+0.34−4.112+6.06−1.24−3.05−1.88−0.23−0.65−0.13−0.83−1.36+1.12−1.07+3.91−1.42−0.63−0.62+0.22+0.41−0.44+3.03+1.00−0.70−0.20−1.02+1.62+1.47−6.33−6.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 16 matches

Aberdeen

9+4.310+3.915+3.08+0.84−0.86−0.96+0.65−0.97+0.17−0.211+6.14−0.85+1.33−2.86−0.92−2.06+2.31−1.22−2.05+0.50−1.73+1.40−1.01−1.11−2.41+0.21+0.53+2.10−0.81+0.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 16 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.010.030.010.010.020.020.020.010.010.020.020.040.010.01−0.060.010.050.050.060.050.05LessMore

Aberdeen

0.010.010.010.020.020.010.040.050.020.030.060.020.050.030.030.060.010.150.060.030.05−0.030.020.24LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.25AttackKilmarnock1.01 → 0.98Aberdeen1.21 → 1.21Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.30 → 1.30Aberdeen1.10 → 1.07

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six37%28%−9
11th6%8%+2
Bottom2%3%+1
Aberdeen
Top six99%>99%+1
St. Johnstone
Top six31%33%+2
11th5%4%−1
Dundee United
Top six28%30%+2

From the forecast before the match (20 December 2020): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockAberdeen
Expected goals0.961.27
Win27%43%
Expected Points1.121.58
Clean sheet28%38%

Kilmarnock 27%Draw 30%Aberdeen 43%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 45%.

Aberdeen goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+9%4%1%10%8%4%1%5%6%4%2%2%2%1%12%13%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 20 December 2020: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawAberdeen win
Kilmarnock
Top six37%50%37%28%
11th6%3%5%8%
Bottom2%1%1%3%
Aberdeen
Top six99%99%99%>99%
St. Johnstone
Top six31%28%31%33%
11th5%5%5%4%
Dundee United
Top six28%25%28%30%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–213 DecCeltic (A)xG 0.79–1.83
  2. L0–15 DecHamilton Academical (A)xG 0.85–1.56
  3. W3–121 NovRoss County (H)xG 2.12–1.87
  4. L0–16 NovSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.46–0.61
  5. L0–11 NovRangers (H)xG 0.50–2.80
  6. L0–124 OctHibernian (H)xG 0.97–1.50

Aberdeen

  1. W2–012 DecRoss County (H)xG 1.19–0.80
  2. D1–15 DecSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.39–2.58
  3. D1–125 NovHamilton Academical (A)xG 0.52–0.49
  4. L0–422 NovRangers (A)xG 0.57–2.04
  5. W2–06 NovHibernian (H)xG 0.88–0.67
  6. D3–325 OctCeltic (H)xG 2.76–2.04

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockAberdeen
Position8th4th
Played1616
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠2–⁠99–⁠4–⁠3
Points17 (1.06 per game)31 (1.94 per game)
Expected Points per game1.001.46
Goals18–⁠1923–⁠17
xG per game0.99–⁠1.571.26–⁠1.11
Home: points, xG per game1.43, 1.22–⁠1.602.11, 1.35–⁠1.19
Away: points, xG per game0.78, 0.82–⁠1.551.71, 1.14–⁠0.99
ManagerAlex Dyer (16)Derek McInnes (16)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.25AttackKilmarnock1.01, 8thAberdeen1.21, 4thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.30, 7thAberdeen1.10, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecKilmarnock attack: 1.01Aberdeen attack: 1.211.211.01AberdeenKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecKilmarnock defence: 1.30Aberdeen defence: 1.101.301.10

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockAberdeen
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−37%+11%−15%−23%
Counter-attacks−89%−68%−42%−39%
Set pieces−2%+38%−22%−35%
Penalties−10%+20%+80%+50%
Headers−19%+9%−21%−36%
Left side−15%+28%−29%−30%
Centre−34%+11%−24%−33%
Right side−32%+11%+1%−12%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdAberdeen concededLeft side−15%−12%Centre−34%−33%Right side−32%−30%Open play−37%−23%Counter-attacks−89%−39%Set pieces−2%−35%Headers−19%−36%

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−29%+11%Centre−24%+11%Right side+1%+28%Open play−15%+11%Counter-attacks−42%−68%Set pieces−22%+38%Headers−21%+9%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockAberdeen

0.99xG1.26
1.57xG against1.11
44%Possession50%
9.6Shots10.8
15.9Shots against10.5
3.2Shots on target3.9
1.1Big chances1.6
15.1Touches in the opposition box19.4
349Passes415
70%Pass accuracy74%
4.2Corners4.8
43%Field tilt50%
36.2Final-third entries36.1
8.6Box entries9.3
15.6Passes per defensive action14.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.011.50
Ahead190.882.12
Behind301.061.30

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level411.510.92
Ahead331.171.29
Behind160.831.18

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.202–4
16–300.190.244–4
31–450.170.183–2
46–600.150.233–2
61–750.230.333–3
76–900.160.383–4

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.290.154–3
16–300.120.114–3
31–450.220.175–2
46–600.200.214–5
61–750.170.202–2
76–900.260.274–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWRogers 15Eastwood 1Millen 9McGowan 4Rossi 3Broadfoot 16Findlay 13Dikamona 3Waters 13Haunstrup 3Power 12Kabamba 4Dicker 13Kiltie 1Tshibola 15McKenzie 2Pinnock 1Burke 13McKenzie 1Kiltie 1Kabamba 11Brophy 5Kiltie 8Pinnock 4McKenzie 24-3-3 in 9 of 16 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (9), 4-4-2 (4), 4-2-3-1 (2), 4-5-1 (1)

Aberdeen

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTLewis 16Hoban 12McCrorie 3Hayes 2Taylor 14McKenna 4Considine 13Kennedy 3Hedges 3McLennan 3Ferguson 10Ojo 4Kennedy 1McCrorie 8Campbell 2McGeouch 2Hayes 10Kennedy 3Leigh 2Hedges 6Wright 5Ferguson 2Watkins 7Cosgrove 4Main 2Hedges 4Wright 4Edmondson 33-4-1-2 in 5 of 16 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (5), 3-4-2-1 (4), 3-5-1-1 (2), 4-4-1-1 (2), 3-1-4-2 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
12 September 2020Aberdeen1–0KilmarnockxG 1.76–0.49

1 league meeting since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 0, Aberdeen won 1, and 0 were drawn. Goals 0–1 and xG 0.49–1.76 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Burke131,100520.240.26
Brophy6474200.400.02
Pinnock5492020.050.31
Kabamba151,315500.310.02

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Ferguson131,131820.430.05
Watkins9732210.330.07
Hedges141,223330.170.16
Wright10783210.200.13

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.