Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Aberdeen 1–0 Kilmarnock

Saturday 12 September 2020, 15:00 · Pittodrie Stadium · Round 7 · Half-time 1–0 · Attendance 300

Aberdeen McCrorie 16'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

AberdeenKilmarnock
Goals10
xG1.760.49
Expected Points2.370.42

Aberdeen 72%Draw 21%Kilmarnock 7%

Most likely score 2–0, 20%. Final score 1–0, 19%.

Kilmarnock goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+7%3%11%2%11%3%10%6%1%3%2%19%20%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTLogan on for Kennedy, 76'McGeouch on for McCrorie and McGinn on for Hedges, 81'Taylor on for Wright, 87'Dikamona on for Broadfoot, 46'McKenzie on for Burke and Pinnock on for Brophy, 65'Whitehall on for Waters, 79'Rossi on for Dikamona, 90'McCrorie 16'Aberdeen 1.76Kilmarnock 0.4900.511.520153045607590HTLogan on for Kennedy, 76'McGeouch on for McCrorie and McGinn on for Hedges, 81'Taylor on for Wright, 87'Dikamona on for Broadfoot, 46'McKenzie on for Burke and Pinnock on for Brophy, 65'Whitehall on for Waters, 79'Rossi on for Dikamona, 90'McCrorie 16'1.760.49AberdeenKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

AberdeenKilmarnock

1.76 +0.68xG0.49 −0.33
0.90 −0.56xG on target0.12 −1.05
13 +5.2Shots7 −2.7
3 −0.8Shots on target1 −2.5
3 +1.5Big chances0 −0.8
50% +4Possession50% +11
385 −13Passes382 +59
71% −1Pass accuracy71% +3
46% +4Field tilt54% +15
31 +2Final-third entries36 0
17 +9.8Box entries14 +4.3
41.8 +27Passes per defensive action8.6 −7
10 +8.0Corners10 +6.2
14 +2Tackles20 +7
8 −0.8Interceptions8 −4.5
38 +21Clearances20 +2
1 −0.5Saves2 −0.7
8 −7Fouls14 +2
1 +0.2Offsides4 +2.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Aberdeen

Considine 8', 0.49 xGWright 71', 0.45 xGHoban 90+2', 0.37 xGHoban 8', 0.07 xGHayes 88', 0.07 xGHedges 19', 0.05 xGConsidine 59', 0.04 xGWatkins 89', 0.04 xGFerguson 19', 0.03 xGMcCrorie 57', 0.03 xGConsidine 59', 0.03 xGHayes 63', 0.03 xGMcCrorie 16', 0.07 xG, goal28%0.49 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.49 xG, 0 goals56%1.00 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 1.00 xG, 1 goal6%0.11 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals10%0.17 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Brophy 41', 0.11 xGDikamona 80', 0.11 xGMcKenzie 73', 0.08 xGKiltie 70', 0.06 xGTshibola 1', 0.04 xGKiltie 32', 0.04 xGKabamba 69', 0.04 xG23%0.11 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.11 xG, 0 goals60%0.29 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.29 xG, 0 goals8%0.04 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals8%0.04 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

AberdeenKilmarnock

0.73 7 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.23 4 shots, 0 goals
1.03 6 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.26 3 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
16 min (17%) · Aberdeen 0.62, Kilmarnock 0.04 xG
Aberdeen ahead
76 min (83%) · Aberdeen 1.15, Kilmarnock 0.45 xG

Line-ups

135433194017112550LewisHobanMcKennaConsidineKennedyFergusonMcCrorieHayesHedgesWrightWatkinsGoal76'81'81'87'Aberdeen 3-4-2-1Derek McInnes2322517182927810911RogersMillenBroadfootFindlayWatersBurkeTshibolaDickerKiltieBrophyKabambaYellow card46'79'65'65'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Alex Dyer

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 76' Logan for Kennedy
  • 81' McGeouch for McCrorie
  • 81' McGinn for Hedges
  • 87' Taylor for Wright

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 46' Dikamona for Broadfoot · off 90'
  • 65' Pinnock for Brophy
  • 65' McKenzie for Burke
  • 79' Whitehall for Waters
  • 90' Rossi for Dikamona

Players

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LewisGK900.000.0000.0240
HobanCB900.440.0200.07712
McKennaCB900.000.0000.0236
ConsidineCB900.560.0600.1236
KennedyRWB760.000.0810.0656
FergusonCM900.030.0310.0747
McCrorieCM8110.100.0210.0454
HayesLWB900.110.0400.12104
HedgesAM810.050.0110.0343
WrightAM8710.450.0910.1722
WatkinsST900.040.2430.0415
LoganDF140.000.0000.0214
McGeouchMF90.000.000−0.0102
McGinnMF90.000.081−0.0200
TaylorDF30.000.0000.0111

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RogersGK900.000.0000.0442
MillenRB900.000.0810.0965
BroadfootCB460.000.0000.0424
FindlayCB900.000.0100.02210
WatersLB790.000.0710.1059
BurkeRM650.000.0710.0411
TshibolaCM900.040.0200.0047
DickerCM900.000.0900.16135
KiltieLM900.110.1610.0641
BrophyST650.110.000−0.0202
Kabamba ST900.040.0100.0123
DikamonaDF440.110.0000.1302
PinnockMF250.000.0710.0722
McKenzieMF250.080.0100.0000
WhitehallFW110.000.010−0.0100
RossiDF00.000.000––0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Aberdeen

Lewis and McKenna: 5 passesLewis and Hayes: 5 passesHoban and Ferguson: 5 passesKennedy and Ferguson: 5 passesHayes and McCrorie: 5 passesMcCrorie and Hedges: 5 passesHoban and McCrorie: 6 passesHoban and Hedges: 6 passesKennedy and McCrorie: 6 passesWright and Watkins: 6 passesConsidine and Hayes: 7 passesMcKenna and Ferguson: 7 passesKennedy and Wright: 7 passesMcCrorie and Wright: 7 passesConsidine and McKenna: 8 passesHedges and Watkins: 9 passesKennedy and Hedges: 10 passesHoban and McKenna: 12 passesHayes and Wright: 12 passesConsidine and Ferguson: 14 passesHayes and Ferguson: 14 passesHoban and Kennedy: 19 passesLewis: 13 completed passesHoban: 31 completed passesConsidine: 26 completed passesMcKenna: 26 completed passesKennedy: 28 completed passesHayes: 27 completed passesMcCrorie: 18 completed passesFerguson: 30 completed passesWright: 21 completed passesHedges: 20 completed passesWatkins: 15 completed passes134533174019251150LewisHobanConsidineMcKennaKennedyHayesMcCrorieFergusonWrightHedgesWatkinsStarters until 76' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Kilmarnock

Millen and Kiltie: 3 passesFindlay and Tshibola: 3 passesBurke and Dicker: 4 passesDicker and Kiltie: 4 passesKiltie and Brophy: 4 passesMillen and Broadfoot: 5 passesMillen and Tshibola: 7 passesWaters and Kiltie: 7 passesDicker and Tshibola: 7 passesTshibola and Kiltie: 7 passesMillen and Burke: 8 passesMillen and Dicker: 8 passesBroadfoot and Dicker: 9 passesWaters and Tshibola: 11 passesRogers: 5 completed passesMillen: 19 completed passesFindlay: 4 completed passesBroadfoot: 11 completed passesWaters: 15 completed passesBurke: 9 completed passesDicker: 20 completed passesTshibola: 19 completed passesKiltie: 14 completed passesKabamba: 4 completed passesBrophy: 2 completed passes2322175182982710119RogersMillenFindlayBroadfootWatersBurkeDickerTshibolaKiltieKabambaBrophyStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
HobanKennedy10
KennedyHoban9
ConsidineFerguson8
ConsidineMcKenna7
McKennaHoban7

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
TshibolaDicker12
MillenTshibola11
FindlayDikamona10
WatersKiltie8
TshibolaMillen8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Aberdeen

4−0.28+2.820+9.88+1.28+2.511+4.05−1.270.02−3.86−1.86+0.52−2.82−1.24−0.86−1.22−3.00−2.81−1.22−4.21−3.53+1.21−0.20−1.20−1.23−1.21+0.81+1.00−0.50−0.82+1.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 4 matches

Kilmarnock

2−1.08+2.010−4.017+9.012+6.88+2.58+0.22−4.25−3.36−1.75+1.85+0.22−3.05+0.36+1.01−2.34+0.53+0.36+3.87+2.82−0.81−1.04+2.82+1.820.00−0.50−0.21+0.21+0.82+1.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 6 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Aberdeen

0.020.030.010.010.040.060.010.010.020.050.03−0.010.030.060.050.040.04−0.020.05−0.010.120.11LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.020.030.020.020.010.010.040.050.020.030.020.010.050.07−0.010.020.01−0.010.030.07−0.020.050.080.11LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.00.51.01.52.0League average 0.93AttackAberdeen0.92 → 1.00Kilmarnock0.81 → 0.82Defence (lower is better)Aberdeen0.72 → 0.73Kilmarnock1.16 → 1.16

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Aberdeen
Top six96%98%+2
Kilmarnock
Top six37%31%−6
11th8%10%+2
Bottom5%6%+1
St. Mirren
Top six15%16%+1
11th20%19%−1
Bottom17%17%0

From the forecast before the match (12 September 2020): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

AberdeenKilmarnock
Expected goals1.380.59
Win56%15%
Expected Points1.970.75
Clean sheet56%25%

Aberdeen 56%Draw 29%Kilmarnock 15%

Most likely score 1–0, 19%. Both sides score 34%.

Kilmarnock goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+8%2%12%3%13%8%2%6%4%1%2%1%15%19%

From the forecast as it stood on 12 September 2020: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowAberdeen winDrawKilmarnock win
Aberdeen
Top six96%98%95%92%
Kilmarnock
Top six37%31%39%53%
11th8%10%8%5%
Bottom5%6%4%2%
St. Mirren
Top six15%16%15%12%
11th20%19%21%21%
Bottom17%17%18%18%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Aberdeen

  1. W1–030 AugHibernian (A)xG 1.73–0.46
  2. W2–123 AugLivingston (H)xG 2.15–1.62
  3. W1–020 AugSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.29–0.42
  4. L0–11 AugRangers (H)xG 0.15–1.25

Kilmarnock

  1. W4–029 AugDundee United (H)xG 1.15–1.04
  2. L0–222 AugRangers (A)xG 0.10–2.93
  3. L1–215 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.86–1.65
  4. D2–212 AugRoss County (A)xG 1.06–2.02
  5. D1–19 AugCeltic (H)xG 1.06–0.74
  6. L1–21 AugHibernian (A)xG 0.70–1.18

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

AberdeenKilmarnock
Position4th9th
Played46
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠0–⁠11–⁠2–⁠3
Points9 (2.25 per game)5 (0.83 per game)
Expected Points per game1.430.92
Goals4–⁠29–⁠9
xG per game1.08–⁠0.940.82–⁠1.59
Home: points, xG per game1.50, 1.15–⁠1.441.33, 1.02–⁠1.14
Away: points, xG per game3.00, 1.01–⁠0.440.33, 0.62–⁠2.04
ManagerDerek McInnes (4)Alex Dyer (6)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.00.51.01.52.0League average 0.93AttackAberdeen0.92, 4thKilmarnock0.81, 5thDefence (lower is better)Aberdeen0.72, 3rdKilmarnock1.16, 9th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.01 Aug30 AugAberdeen attack: 0.92Kilmarnock attack: 0.810.920.81KilmarnockAberdeenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.01 Aug30 AugAberdeen defence: 0.72Kilmarnock defence: 1.161.160.72

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

AberdeenKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−15%−9%−37%+26%
Counter-attacks−67%−36%−73%−73%
Set pieces−52%−20%−45%+37%
Penalties+133%−67%averageaverage
Headers−16%−34%−42%+4%
Left side−51%−10%−44%+64%
Centre−31%+1%−51%+4%
Right side+2%−43%−19%+24%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−51%+24%Centre−31%+4%Right side+2%+64%Open play−15%+26%Counter-attacks−67%−73%Set pieces−52%+37%Headers−16%+4%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdAberdeen concededLeft side−44%−43%Centre−51%+1%Right side−19%−10%Open play−37%−9%Counter-attacks−73%−36%Set pieces−45%−20%Headers−42%−34%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

AberdeenKilmarnock

1.08xG0.82
0.94xG against1.59
46%Possession39%
7.8Shots9.7
11.0Shots against17.3
3.8Shots on target3.5
1.5Big chances0.8
398Passes323
72%Pass accuracy68%
2.0Corners3.8
42%Field tilt39%
28.8Final-third entries35.5
7.2Box entries9.7
14.8Passes per defensive action16.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level481.270.58
Ahead251.361.57
Behind170.160.99

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level430.661.49
Ahead161.002.59
Behind300.961.20

xG by period

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.030.050–0
16–300.150.160–1
31–450.280.081–0
46–600.310.152–0
61–750.260.250–1
76–900.040.251–0

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.060.230–3
16–300.160.052–0
31–450.150.202–1
46–600.130.251–1
61–750.140.292–0
76–900.190.562–4

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Aberdeen

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWLewis 4McCrorie 2Hoban 2Hernández 1Taylor 3McKenna 3Considine 1Hayes 1Kennedy 1Logan 1Ferguson 2Kennedy 1Wright 1Hedges 1McCrorie 1Hayes 3Considine 1Ferguson 2Watkins 1Bryson 1Wright 1Hedges 1McGinn 1Kennedy 1Watkins 1Wright 13-4-3 in 1 of 4 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWRogers 5Eastwood 1Millen 4Rossi 1McGowan 1Broadfoot 6Findlay 6Waters 6Power 5Kabamba 1Dicker 5Kiltie 1Tshibola 6Burke 6Kabamba 4Brophy 2Pinnock 2McKenzie 2Kiltie 14-3-3 in 4 of 6 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (4), 4-4-2 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Burke6527300.210.17
Kabamba5467200.160.02
Tshibola6528100.080.04
Findlay6479000.040.04

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.