Digressive Celts

Matches › 2021/22

Hearts 1–2 Celtic

Wednesday 26 January 2022, 19:45 · Tynecastle Park · Round 23 · Half-time 0–2 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 17,967

Hearts Boyce 62'

Celtic Hatate 27', Giakoumakis 35'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsCeltic
Goals12
xG1.221.70
Non-penalty xG0.431.70
Expected Points1.031.67

Hearts 24%Draw 30%Celtic 46%

Most likely score 1–1, 19%. Final score 1–2, 16%.

Celtic goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+2%4%4%2%9%9%3%4%8%8%4%2%1%1%19%16%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTAtkinson on for Smith, 22'Simms on for Ginnelly, 46'Baningime on for Devlin, 57'Mackay-Steven on for Cochrane, 58'Halliday on for Halkett, 81'Abada on for Jota, 62'McCarthy on for O'Riley, 86'Soro on for Hatate, 90+3'Boyce 62'Hatate 27'Giakoumakis 35'Celtic 1.70Hearts 1.2200.511.520153045607590HTAtkinson on for Smith, 22'Simms on for Ginnelly, 46'Baningime on for Devlin, 57'Mackay-Steven on for Cochrane, 58'Halliday on for Halkett, 81'Abada on for Jota, 62'McCarthy on for O'Riley, 86'Soro on for Hatate, 90+3'Boyce 62'Hatate 27'Giakoumakis 35'1.701.22HeartsCeltic

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsCeltic

1.22 −0.15xG1.70 −0.87
0.43Non-penalty xG1.70
0.17 −1.34xG on target1.12 −1.34
8 −5Shots20 −2
1 −3.6Shots on target8 +1.0
2 +0.4Big chances0 −3.7
20 −3Touches in the opposition box27 −11
42% −12Possession58% −13
347 −94Passes504 −160
69% −7Pass accuracy82% −5
29% −24Field tilt71% −10
29 −15Final-third entries38 −38
6 −6Box entries18 −5
11.7 −2Passes per defensive action8.6 −2
4 −1.6Corners10 +0.5
24 +9Tackles15 +3
12 +3.8Interceptions16 +8.6
16 −2Clearances22 +7
6 +1.7Saves0 −1.5
14 +2Fouls12 0
2 0.0Offsides2 +0.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Simms 68', 0.10 xGDevlin 54', 0.04 xGMcKay 1', 0.02 xGBoyce 72', 0.02 xGMackay-Steven 77', 0.01 xGMackay-Steven 89', 0.01 xGBoyce 62', 0.23 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals91%0.39 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.39 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals9%0.04 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Celtic

Jota 41', 0.19 xGGiakoumakis 89', 0.19 xGForrest 78', 0.12 xGForrest 32', 0.11 xGJuranovic 55', 0.11 xGGiakoumakis 25', 0.08 xGO'Riley 69', 0.08 xGJota 17', 0.07 xGJota 59', 0.07 xGO'Riley 6', 0.06 xGJota 16', 0.06 xGJota 59', 0.06 xGHatate 15', 0.05 xGHatate 46', 0.05 xGJuranovic 41', 0.04 xGForrest 23', 0.03 xGBitton 27', 0.02 xGForrest 34', 0.02 xGGiakoumakis 35', 0.26 xG, goalHatate 27', 0.02 xG, goal15%0.26 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.26 xG, 1 goal22%0.38 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.38 xG, 0 goals25%0.43 xGWide in the box: 7 shots, 0.43 xG, 0 goals25%0.42 xGEdge of the box: 7 shots, 0.42 xG, 0 goals12%0.21 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.21 xG, 1 goal

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsCeltic

0.36 4 shots, 1 goalOpen play1.54 17 shots, 2 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.12 1 shot, 0 goals
0.08 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.04 2 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 0 goalsPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
27 min (29%) · Hearts 0.02, Celtic 0.39 xG
Celtic ahead
66 min (71%) · Hearts 1.20, Celtic 1.31 xG

Line-ups

14193214517301018GordonSouttarHalkettKingsleySmithDevlinHaringCochraneGinnellyBoyceMcKayYellow cardYellow cardGoalYellow card81'22'57'58'46'Hearts 3-4-3Robbie Neilson18820433364149717HartJuranovicCarter-VickersStarfeltTaylorO'RileyBittonHatateForrestGiakoumakisJotaYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoalYellow card86'90+3'62'Celtic 4-3-3Ange Postecoglou

Hearts substitutes

  • 22' Atkinson for Smith
  • 46' Simms for Ginnelly
  • 57' Baningime for Devlin
  • 58' Mackay-Steven for Cochrane
  • 81' Halliday for Halkett

Celtic substitutes

  • 62' Abada for Jota
  • 86' McCarthy for O'Riley
  • 90+3' Soro for Hatate

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0231
SouttarCB900.000.0100.0548
Halkett CB810.000.0610.04511
KingsleyCB900.000.0410.1055
SmithRWB220.000.0000.0001
Devlin CM570.040.0000.0105
HaringCM900.000.0110.0047
CochraneLWB580.000.0000.0111
GinnellyRW460.000.0000.0212
Boyce ST9011.040.0210.0321
McKayLW9010.020.2120.1331
AtkinsonDF680.000.0100.0249
SimmsFW440.100.0100.0910
BaningimeMF330.000.000−0.0112
Mackay-StevenFW320.020.0000.0431
HallidayMF90.000.0000.0312

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HartGK900.000.0000.0222
JuranovicRB900.150.0320.0547
Carter-VickersCB900.000.0410.0268
StarfeltCB900.000.0000.0738
Taylor LB900.000.0710.1376
O'RileyCM8610.140.7180.2771
Bitton CM9010.020.0510.0488
HatateCM9010.120.0810.11104
ForrestRW900.290.0810.0022
GiakoumakisST9010.530.010−0.0200
Jota LW620.460.0520.15113
AbadaFW280.000.0700.1711
McCarthyMF40.000.0000.0004
SoroMF00.000.000−0.0100

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Souttar and Halkett: 3 passesHalkett and Kingsley: 3 passesKingsley and Haring: 3 passesGordon: 1 completed passesSouttar: 5 completed passesHalkett: 5 completed passesKingsley: 6 completed passesSmith: 5 completed passesCochrane: 2 completed passesDevlin: 2 completed passesHaring: 5 completed passesGinnelly: 0 completed passesBoyce: 4 completed passesMcKay: 1 completed passes14193217145301018GordonSouttarHalkettKingsleySmithCochraneDevlinHaringGinnellyBoyceMcKayStarters until 22' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Celtic

Hart and Taylor: 5 passesStarfelt and Jota: 5 passesO'Riley and Forrest: 5 passesCarter-Vickers and O'Riley: 6 passesCarter-Vickers and Bitton: 6 passesBitton and Forrest: 7 passesJuranovic and O'Riley: 8 passesStarfelt and Bitton: 8 passesStarfelt and Hatate: 8 passesO'Riley and Hatate: 8 passesJuranovic and Forrest: 10 passesO'Riley and Bitton: 10 passesTaylor and Bitton: 11 passesO'Riley and Jota: 11 passesHatate and Jota: 11 passesTaylor and Hatate: 13 passesBitton and Hatate: 13 passesJuranovic and Bitton: 14 passesHart and Carter-Vickers: 16 passesStarfelt and Taylor: 16 passesTaylor and Jota: 21 passesHart and Starfelt: 24 passesJuranovic and Carter-Vickers: 28 passesStarfelt and Carter-Vickers: 44 passesHart: 34 completed passesJuranovic: 42 completed passesStarfelt: 56 completed passesCarter-Vickers: 57 completed passesTaylor: 41 completed passesO'Riley: 28 completed passesBitton: 38 completed passesHatate: 27 completed passesForrest: 11 completed passesGiakoumakis: 4 completed passesJota: 21 completed passes158842033364149717HartJuranovicStarfeltCarter-VickersTaylorO'RileyBittonHatateForrestGiakoumakisJotaStarters until 62' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
HalkettKingsley10
SouttarAtkinson10
HalkettSouttar8
KingsleySouttar8
KingsleyHaring7

Celtic

FromToPasses
Carter-VickersStarfelt24
StarfeltCarter-Vickers21
HartStarfelt19
Carter-VickersJuranovic17
TaylorJota17

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

9+5.04−0.917+5.49+3.66+1.412+6.611+4.33−4.87+1.13−3.860.08+2.32−3.43−2.97+2.24−0.26+2.54+0.15+1.76+2.04+1.35+3.10−1.72+0.22−0.42+1.61+0.50−0.70−0.40−0.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 21 matches

Celtic

2−2.04−0.413+4.85+0.94−1.27+1.48+3.45+1.08+2.08+0.68+3.27+3.15+1.66+0.69+3.18+3.24+0.22−0.36+1.99+3.30−2.10−1.42+0.11−1.04+1.10−0.50−0.51+0.51+0.41+0.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 21 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.010.010.030.010.010.010.030.010.040.030.02−0.010.030.010.060.030.05−0.020.03−0.01−0.020.080.11LessMore

Celtic

0.010.010.010.010.010.010.040.040.040.020.050.060.030.060.010.080.07−0.040.060.09−0.05−0.090.070.210.18LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.15AttackHearts1.22 → 1.22Celtic2.03 → 2.01Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.12 → 1.10Celtic0.72 → 0.72

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Celtic
Title40%46%+6
Rangers
Title60%54%−6

From the forecast before the match (26 January 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsCeltic
Expected goals0.891.83
Win17%59%
Expected Points0.762.00
Clean sheet16%41%

Hearts 17%Draw 24%Celtic 59%

Most likely score 0–1, 11%. Both sides score 50%.

Celtic goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+7%7%3%1%5%6%3%1%3%5%4%3%1%1%1%11%11%11%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 26 January 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawCeltic win
Celtic
Title40%29%33%46%
Rangers
Title60%71%67%54%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. W2–018 JanSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.71–1.14
  2. W2–126 DecRoss County (H)xG 1.73–1.00
  3. W1–018 DecDundee FC (A)xG 1.02–0.14
  4. L0–212 DecRangers (H)xG 1.00–1.86
  5. W1–05 DecLivingston (A)xG 1.84–1.25
  6. L0–12 DecCeltic (A)xG 0.67–2.86

Celtic

  1. W2–017 JanHibernian (H)xG 2.94–0.57
  2. W3–126 DecSt. Johnstone (A)xG 2.57–0.26
  3. D0–022 DecSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.68–0.29
  4. W2–115 DecRoss County (A)xG 2.72–0.65
  5. W1–012 DecMotherwell (H)xG 2.45–0.75
  6. W3–05 DecDundee United (A)xG 4.36–0.21

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsCeltic
Position3rd2nd
Played2121
Won, drawn, lost11–⁠6–⁠415–⁠3–⁠3
Points39 (1.86 per game)48 (2.29 per game)
Expected Points per game1.552.48
Goals31–⁠1844–⁠12
xG per game1.37–⁠1.222.57–⁠0.59
Home: points, xG per game2.18, 1.69–⁠0.992.60, 3.09–⁠0.50
Away: points, xG per game1.50, 1.01–⁠1.472.00, 2.10–⁠0.68
ManagerRobbie Neilson (21)Ange Postecoglou (21)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.15AttackHearts1.22, 3rdCeltic2.03, 1stDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.12, 5thCeltic0.72, 2nd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctNovDecJanHearts attack: 1.22Celtic attack: 2.032.031.22CelticHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctNovDecJanHearts defence: 1.12Celtic defence: 0.721.120.72

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+5%+11%+139%−50%
Counter-attacks+101%−43%+127%−60%
Set pieces−14%+22%+72%−45%
Penalties+113%−100%+42%−64%
Headers−24%−15%+75%−20%
Left side+45%−5%+90%−58%
Centre−38%+9%+169%−44%
Right side+50%+34%+59%−52%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdCeltic concededLeft side+45%−52%Centre−38%−44%Right side+50%−58%Open play+5%−50%Counter-attacks+101%−60%Set pieces−14%−45%Headers−24%−20%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdHearts concededLeft side+90%+34%Centre+169%+9%Right side+59%−5%Open play+139%+11%Counter-attacks+127%−43%Set pieces+72%+22%Headers+75%−15%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsCeltic

1.37xG2.57
1.22xG against0.59
54%Possession71%
13.0Shots21.8
13.3Shots against6.7
4.6Shots on target7.0
1.6Big chances3.7
23.3Touches in the opposition box38.1
441Passes664
75%Pass accuracy88%
5.6Corners9.5
54%Field tilt81%
44.0Final-third entries76.2
12.5Box entries23.1
13.6Passes per defensive action10.1

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level431.521.12
Ahead321.490.96
Behind160.731.99

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level392.340.47
Ahead442.870.73
Behind61.950.39

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.194–4
16–300.160.185–1
31–450.300.176–4
46–600.290.184–2
61–750.270.207–5
76–900.200.295–2

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.370.116–1
16–300.490.0914–3
31–450.450.105–2
46–600.290.096–2
61–750.350.124–3
76–900.630.089–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWGordon 21Souttar 19Moore 5Smith 1Halkett 20Kingsley 14Cochrane 4Smith 15Moore 3McKay 2Baningime 15Smith 1Woodburn 1Devlin 14Haring 9Halliday 1Cochrane 11Halliday 7Kingsley 3McKay 9Ginnelly 6Woodburn 3Boyce 13Ginnelly 4Woodburn 2Mackay-Steven 9Woodburn 7McKay 43-4-3 in 14 of 21 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (14), 3-4-2-1 (4), 4-2-3-1 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWHart 18Bain 2Barkas 1Ralston 15Juranovic 5Welsh 1Carter-Vickers 16Bitton 1Starfelt 17Welsh 8Juranovic 8Taylor 7Scales 3Rogic 11Christie 2Forrest 1McGregor 18Bitton 7McCarthy 4Turnbull 16Johnston 1Abada 14Rogic 2Forrest 1Furuhashi 9Abada 3Ajeti 3Jota 10Forrest 3Furuhashi 34-3-3 in 17 of 21 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (17), 4-1-4-1 (2), 4-3-1-2 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
2 December 2021Celtic1–0HeartsxG 2.86–0.67
31 July 2021Hearts2–1CelticxG 1.40–1.49

2 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 1, Celtic won 1, and 0 were drawn. Goals 2–2 and xG 1.03–2.17 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Boyce131,158710.640.05
McKay151,328040.140.33
Gnanduillet3459100.340.10
Mackay-Steven11883230.310.10

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Furuhashi12949800.810.16
Abada171,439630.470.33
Turnbull181,586540.280.43
Rogic131,111360.290.36

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.