Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Dundee FC 1–0 Hearts

Sunday 27 August 2023, 15:00 · Kilmac Stadium at Dens Park · Round 3 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Alan James Muir · Attendance 8,104

Dundee FC McCowan 63'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Dundee FCHearts
Goals10
xG1.520.86
Expected Points1.890.83

Dundee FC 53%Draw 28%Hearts 18%

Most likely score 1–1, 16%. Final score 1–0, 14%.

Hearts goalsDundee FC goals0123456+0123456+7%6%3%6%1%6%1%5%5%2%1%1%14%16%12%12%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTCameron on for Tiffoney, 66'Sylla on for Robertson, 76'Atkinson on for Offiah, Boyce on for Oda, and Devlin on for Sibbick, 46'Grant on for Denholm and Tagawa on for Vargas, 69'McCowan 63'Dundee FC 1.52Hearts 0.8600.511.520153045607590HTCameron on for Tiffoney, 66'Sylla on for Robertson, 76'Atkinson on for Offiah, Boyce on for Oda, and Devlin on for Sibbick, 46'Grant on for Denholm and Tagawa on for Vargas, 69'McCowan 63'1.520.86Dundee FCHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Dundee FCHearts

1.52 −0.44xG0.86 −0.22
1.65 +0.14xG on target1.06 −1.06
12 0Shots10 −2
4 +1.0Shots on target5 0.0
2 −0.5Big chances1 −1.5
19Touches in the opposition box31 +8
35% −12Possession65% −1
298 −22Passes549 +75
66% +3Pass accuracy78% +2
40% −8Field tilt60% −10
34 0Final-third entries45 −2
13 +3Box entries19 +5
15.3 +2.9Passes per defensive action11.7 +2.4
3 −2.0Corners8 +0.5
20 +3.5Tackles15 +7.0
5 −5.5Interceptions7 −1.0
35 +7Clearances18 0
4 +3.0Saves3 0.0
16 +6Fouls10 −2
2 +2.0Offsides0 −1.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Dundee FC

Robinson 46', 0.48 xGRobinson 46', 0.40 xGRobinson 80', 0.23 xGBeck 14', 0.08 xGTiffoney 36', 0.07 xGRobinson 14', 0.06 xGTiffoney 6', 0.04 xGMcCowan 15', 0.03 xGMcCowan 25', 0.03 xGRobertson 27', 0.02 xGRobertson 45', 0.02 xGMcCowan 63', 0.05 xG, goal58%0.88 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.88 xG, 0 goals25%0.38 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.38 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals11%0.17 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals6%0.09 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 1 goal

Hearts

Vargas 49', 0.23 xGLowry 67', 0.14 xGGrant 90+2', 0.13 xGKent 69', 0.11 xGKingsley 53', 0.06 xGShankland 67', 0.06 xGKent 18', 0.05 xGShankland 62', 0.05 xGBoyce 84', 0.03 xGLowry 82', 0.02 xG33%0.28 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.28 xG, 0 goals43%0.37 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.37 xG, 0 goals16%0.14 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals8%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Dundee FCHearts

0.64 10 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.60 5 shots, 0 goals
0.88 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.26 5 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
63 min (68%) · Dundee FC 1.28, Hearts 0.39 xG
Dundee FC ahead
29 min (32%) · Dundee FC 0.23, Hearts 0.48 xG

Line-ups

3125631917237169CarsonKerrShaughnessyMcGheeBeckRobertsonMcCowanBoatengTiffoneyRobinsonBakayokoYellow cardGoal76'66'Dundee FC 4-4-2Tony Docherty2829215351212211977ClarkOffiahKentRowlesKingsleyLowrySibbickDenholmOdaShanklandVargasYellow card46'46'69'46'69'Hearts 4-3-3Frankie McAvoy

Dundee FC substitutes

  • 66' Cameron for Tiffoney
  • 76' Sylla for Robertson

Hearts substitutes

  • 46' Atkinson for Offiah
  • 46' Devlin for Sibbick
  • 46' Boyce for Oda
  • 69' Grant for Denholm
  • 69' Tagawa for Vargas

Players

Dundee FC

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
CarsonGK900.000.0100.0672
KerrRB900.000.0100.02111
ShaughnessyCB900.000.0000.02511
McGheeCB900.000.020−0.1173
Beck LB900.080.0300.05110
RobertsonRM760.040.0400.0823
McCowanCM9010.110.0630.0956
BoatengCM900.000.5110.2016
TiffoneyLM660.110.0100.0754
RobinsonST901.170.0920.2432
BakayokoST9010.000.0940.0932
CameronMF240.000.010−0.0301
SyllaMF140.000.0000.0103

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0000.0220
OffiahRB460.000.0000.0003
KentCB900.160.0600.0987
RowlesCB900.000.0300.17119
KingsleyLB900.060.0500.09107
LowryCM900.150.3530.41122
SibbickCM460.000.000−0.0112
DenholmCM690.000.000−0.0303
Oda RW460.000.0100.0001
ShanklandST900.110.390−0.1522
VargasLW690.230.0700.0741
AtkinsonDF440.000.0400.0880
DevlinMF440.000.6710.2235
BoyceFW440.030.1810.2450
GrantMF210.130.0410.0020
TagawaFW210.000.010−0.1000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Dundee FC

McGhee and Robinson: 3 passesBeck and Boateng: 3 passesBeck and Robinson: 3 passesCarson and Bakayoko: 4 passesKerr and Boateng: 4 passesMcGhee and Beck: 4 passesMcGhee and Robertson: 4 passesMcGhee and Bakayoko: 4 passesBeck and McCowan: 4 passesRobertson and Boateng: 4 passesCarson and McGhee: 5 passesKerr and Shaughnessy: 5 passesShaughnessy and Robertson: 5 passesMcCowan and Robinson: 5 passesBakayoko and Robinson: 5 passesKerr and Robertson: 6 passesShaughnessy and McGhee: 6 passesMcGhee and McCowan: 6 passesRobertson and Bakayoko: 6 passesMcCowan and Bakayoko: 6 passesCarson and Shaughnessy: 7 passesRobertson and McCowan: 7 passesRobertson and Robinson: 7 passesBeck and Tiffoney: 8 passesMcCowan and Tiffoney: 9 passesCarson: 13 completed passesKerr: 12 completed passesShaughnessy: 17 completed passesMcGhee: 22 completed passesBeck: 15 completed passesRobertson: 17 completed passesBoateng: 10 completed passesMcCowan: 21 completed passesTiffoney: 9 completed passesBakayoko: 13 completed passesRobinson: 10 completed passes3125631923177916CarsonKerrShaughnessyMcGheeBeckRobertsonBoatengMcCowanTiffoneyBakayokoRobinsonStarters until 66' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hearts

Offiah and Lowry: 3 passesRowles and Vargas: 3 passesKent and Lowry: 3 passesSibbick and Oda: 3 passesLowry and Oda: 3 passesClark and Kent: 4 passesOffiah and Sibbick: 4 passesKent and Oda: 4 passesOffiah and Oda: 5 passesOffiah and Shankland: 5 passesShankland and Vargas: 5 passesKingsley and Sibbick: 6 passesKingsley and Denholm: 6 passesOda and Shankland: 6 passesRowles and Denholm: 7 passesRowles and Lowry: 7 passesKent and Sibbick: 7 passesKingsley and Lowry: 7 passesClark and Rowles: 9 passesRowles and Sibbick: 9 passesKent and Denholm: 9 passesKingsley and Vargas: 10 passesOffiah and Kent: 15 passesRowles and Kent: 22 passesRowles and Kingsley: 24 passesClark: 12 completed passesOffiah: 22 completed passesRowles: 42 completed passesKent: 31 completed passesKingsley: 28 completed passesSibbick: 17 completed passesDenholm: 14 completed passesLowry: 15 completed passesOda: 10 completed passesShankland: 10 completed passesVargas: 10 completed passes2829152321225111977ClarkOffiahRowlesKentKingsleySibbickDenholmLowryOdaShanklandVargasStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Dundee FC

FromToPasses
BakayokoRobinson6
McGheeCarson6
CarsonShaughnessy6
CarsonBakayoko6
McCowanTiffoney5

Hearts

FromToPasses
RowlesKingsley30
KentRowles29
KingsleyRowles15
KingsleyLowry14
RowlesKent13

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Dundee FC

6−1.012+6.020−3.514+4.08−2.014+8.07+2.07+3.55−3.010+2.07−0.57+1.56+0.52−1.59+4.040.01−1.55+3.03−1.56+5.04+2.50−0.53+1.08+3.510.01+1.000.00−0.50−1.54−7.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 2 matches

Hearts

7+1.08−0.57−4.06−1.08+0.510−1.57+3.54−0.512+6.515+8.06−1.02−2.54−1.55−0.560.08+5.03−1.02−0.51−4.07+2.51−0.50−1.52+1.02+1.00−2.51+1.02+1.00−1.000.01+0.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 2 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Dundee FC

0.010.040.010.020.020.010.010.010.020.010.020.010.020.030.030.030.02−0.010.090.03−0.01−0.010.130.150.11LessMore

Hearts

0.010.010.010.010.010.010.020.020.030.010.030.020.040.050.040.030.030.010.060.04−0.030.110.050.04−0.15−0.020.010.200.230.20LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.31AttackDundee FC1.03 → 1.04Hearts1.32 → 1.29Defence (lower is better)Dundee FC1.52 → 1.47Hearts1.32 → 1.34

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Dundee FC
Top six17%25%+8
11th16%14%−2
Bottom28%20%−8
Hearts
Top six74%67%−7
11th2%3%+1
Bottom1%1%0
Ross County
Top six23%23%0
11th14%15%+1
Bottom13%15%+2

From the forecast before the match (27 August 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Dundee FCHearts
Expected goals1.261.36
Win34%39%
Expected Points1.291.44
Clean sheet26%28%

Dundee FC 34%Draw 28%Hearts 39%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 54%.

Hearts goalsDundee FC goals0123456+0123456+8%9%7%3%1%9%8%4%1%6%8%5%2%2%3%2%1%1%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 27 August 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowDundee FC winDrawHearts win
Dundee FC
Top six17%25%16%12%
11th16%14%17%18%
Bottom28%20%28%36%
Hearts
Top six74%67%72%81%
11th2%3%2%1%
Bottom1%1%1%<1%
Ross County
Top six23%23%23%24%
11th14%15%14%14%
Bottom13%15%14%12%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Dundee FC

  1. L1–212 AugSt. Mirren (A)xG 2.31–1.28
  2. D1–15 AugMotherwell (H)xG 1.60–0.76
  3. L1–215 MayLivingston (A)xG 1.58–1.48
  4. W3–110 MayHibernian (H)xG 1.48–0.99
  5. L0–27 MaySt. Mirren (A)xG 0.95–1.83
  6. L0–130 AprAberdeen (A)xG 0.85–1.54

Hearts

  1. D0–013 AugKilmarnock (H)xG 0.39–0.73
  2. W2–05 AugSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.77–0.94
  3. D1–127 MayHibernian (H)xG 0.11–1.50
  4. D2–224 MayRangers (A)xG 1.17–2.85
  5. W2–120 MayAberdeen (H)xG 2.55–1.01
  6. D2–213 MaySt. Mirren (A)xG 2.13–1.06

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Dundee FCHearts
Position9th5th
Played22
Won, drawn, lost0–⁠1–⁠11–⁠1–⁠0
Points1 (0.50 per game)4 (2.00 per game)
Expected Points per game2.091.47
Goals2–⁠32–⁠0
xG per game1.96–⁠1.021.08–⁠0.83
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.60–⁠0.761.00, 0.39–⁠0.73
Away: points, xG per game0.00, 2.31–⁠1.283.00, 1.77–⁠0.94
ManagerTony Docherty (2)Frankie McAvoy (2)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.31AttackDundee FC1.03, 10thHearts1.32, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Dundee FC1.52, 12thHearts1.32, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.04 Aug26 AugDundee FC attack: 1.03Hearts attack: 1.321.321.03HeartsDundee FCDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.04 Aug26 AugDundee FC defence: 1.52Hearts defence: 1.321.521.32

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Dundee FCHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+22%−3%average−11%
Counter-attacks−33%−33%+79%−43%
Set pieces−11%−4%−23%+54%
Penalties+73%−33%−4%−39%
Headers+8%+10%−37%+13%
Left side+12%−9%−22%−18%
Centre+1%−1%+10%+8%
Right side+22%−13%−1%+24%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Dundee FC attacking

Dundee FC createdHearts concededLeft side+12%+24%Centre+1%+8%Right side+22%−18%Open play+22%−11%Counter-attacks−33%−43%Set pieces−11%+54%Headers+8%+13%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdDundee FC concededLeft side−22%−13%Centre+10%−1%Right side−1%−9%Open playaverage−3%Counter-attacks+79%−33%Set pieces−23%−4%Headers−37%+10%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Dundee FCHearts

1.96xG1.08
1.02xG against0.83
47%Possession66%
12.0Shots12.0
14.0Shots against11.5
3.0Shots on target5.0
2.5Big chances2.5
320Passes474
64%Pass accuracy77%
5.0Corners7.5
47%Field tilt70%
34.5Final-third entries47.0
10.0Box entries14.0
12.4Passes per defensive action9.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Dundee FC

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level370.570.96
Ahead0––
Behind532.921.06

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level820.820.87
Ahead83.900.42
Behind0––

xG by period

Dundee FC

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.010.050–1
16–300.090.230–0
31–450.450.240–2
46–600.410.050–0
61–750.840.302–0
76–900.140.150–0

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.000.300–0
16–300.070.120–0
31–450.090.110–0
46–600.040.190–0
61–750.430.071–0
76–900.450.051–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Dundee FC

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTCarson 1McCracken 1Ashcroft 2Shaughnessy 2McGhee 1Portales 1McCowan 2Cameron 2Mulligan 1McGhee 1Boateng 2Beck 2Robinson 2Bakayoko 23-5-2 in every start

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTClark 2Atkinson 2Kent 2Rowles 2Kingsley 2Haring 2Devlin 2Oda 2Shankland 1Nieuwenhof 1Lowry 1Forrest 1Shankland 1Tagawa 14-2-3-1 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
9 February 2022Hearts1–2Dundee FCxG 1.76–0.86
18 December 2021Dundee FC0–1HeartsxG 0.14–1.02
23 October 2021Hearts1–1Dundee FCxG 1.49–0.52

3 league meetings since 2020/21: Dundee FC won 1, Hearts won 1, and 1 was a draw. Goals 3–3 and xG 0.51–1.42 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland353,2182540.680.11
Oda9705200.260.06
Forrest171,571400.180.06
Atkinson131,248120.060.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes. Until a side has played six matches, last season's minutes at the club count too.