Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Kilmarnock 1–2 Livingston

Saturday 26 December 2020, 15:00 · Rugby Park · Round 20 · Half-time 0–0

Kilmarnock Burke 48' (pen)

Livingston Emmanuel-Thomas 51', Robinson 90'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockLivingston
Goals12
xG1.220.68
Non-penalty xG0.430.68
Expected Points1.880.79

Kilmarnock 51%Draw 34%Livingston 15%

Most likely score 1–0, 26%. Final score 1–2, 6%.

Livingston goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+7%5%2%6%1%11%9%3%2%2%26%24%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTRobinson on for Emmanuel-Thomas, 69'Poplatnik on for Sibbald, 79'Burke 48' (pen)Emmanuel-Thomas 51'Robinson 90'Kilmarnock 1.22Livingston 0.6800.511.50153045607590HTRobinson on for Emmanuel-Thomas, 69'Poplatnik on for Sibbald, 79'Burke 48' (pen)Emmanuel-Thomas 51'Robinson 90'1.220.68KilmarnockLivingston

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockLivingston

1.22 +0.28xG0.68 −0.62
0.43Non-penalty xG0.68
1.18 +0.21xG on target0.46 −0.68
9 −0.6Shots9 −1.4
2 −1.1Shots on target4 +1.2
1 +0.1Big chances1 −0.6
16 0Touches in the opposition box16 −3
57% +12Possession43% −6
404 +46Passes312 −42
68% −2Pass accuracy58% −4
61% +16Field tilt39% −14
32 −5Final-third entries33 −2
7 −1.5Box entries8 −1.2
12.6 −3Passes per defensive action15.0 +3
5 +0.3Corners2 −3.2
13 +1Tackles17 0
7 −4Interceptions12 +1
10 −7Clearances21 +3
2 −0.4Saves1 −0.9
11 −1Fouls10 −4
5 +2.8Offsides6 +4.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Broadfoot 47', 0.11 xGMulumbu 87', 0.11 xGTshibola 38', 0.05 xGTshibola 11', 0.04 xGBroadfoot 44', 0.04 xGMcKenzie 68', 0.04 xGPower 87', 0.03 xGPower 90+3', 0.01 xG26%0.11 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.11 xG, 0 goals48%0.20 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals24%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals2%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Livingston

Guthrie 1', 0.28 xGGuthrie 90+1', 0.09 xGFitzwater 27', 0.07 xGRobinson 78', 0.05 xGRobinson 83', 0.05 xGPittman 11', 0.03 xGSibbald 73', 0.03 xGRobinson 90+2', 0.06 xG, goalEmmanuel-Thomas 51', 0.03 xG, goal13%0.09 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.09 xG, 0 goals41%0.28 xGCentral box: 1 shot, 0.28 xG, 0 goals33%0.23 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.23 xG, 1 goal9%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 1 goal4%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockLivingston

0.05 2 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.32 7 shots, 2 goals
0.37 6 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.36 2 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
87 min (94%) · Kilmarnock 1.20, Livingston 0.65 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
3 min (3%) · Kilmarnock 0.00, Livingston 0.03 xG
Livingston ahead
3 min (3%) · Kilmarnock 0.01, Livingston 0.00 xG

Line-ups

232517182962772111RogersMcGowanBroadfootFindlayWatersBurkePowerTshibolaMcKenzieMulumbuKabambaGoalYellow cardYellow cardKilmarnock 4-4-1-1Alex Dyer32252712186141089StryjekDevlinFitzwaterGuthrieSerranoHoltBartleyMullinSibbaldPittmanEmmanuel-ThomasYellow cardYellow cardGoal79'69'Livingston 4-2-3-1David Martindale

Kilmarnock substitutes

None used

Livingston substitutes

  • 69' Robinson for Emmanuel-Thomas · goal 90'
  • 79' Poplatnik for Sibbald

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RogersGK900.000.0000.0441
McGowanRB900.000.0410.1162
BroadfootCB900.150.0100.0763
FindlayCB900.000.0100.1096
WatersLB900.000.1610.1938
Burke RM9010.790.2710.2060
PowerCM900.040.0100.0134
TshibolaCM900.090.0200.0010
McKenzieLM900.040.0200.0431
MulumbuAM900.110.021−0.0413
Kabamba ST900.000.0110.0004

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
StryjekGK900.000.0100.0780
Devlin RB900.000.0600.1534
FitzwaterCB900.070.0000.0695
GuthrieCB900.360.0000.0469
Serrano LB900.000.0500.0558
HoltDM9010.000.0920.0235
BartleyDM900.000.0210.0213
MullinRW900.000.2120.3064
SibbaldAM790.030.0010.0225
PittmanLW900.030.021−0.0625
Emmanuel-ThomasST6910.030.0100.0021
RobinsonMF2110.160.2000.1622
PoplatnikFW110.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

McGowan and Kabamba: 5 passesFindlay and Tshibola: 5 passesWaters and Kabamba: 5 passesPower and McKenzie: 5 passesMcGowan and Tshibola: 6 passesBurke and Tshibola: 6 passesBroadfoot and Burke: 7 passesFindlay and Mulumbu: 8 passesWaters and Power: 8 passesBurke and Power: 8 passesMcGowan and Broadfoot: 9 passesFindlay and Power: 9 passesRogers and Findlay: 10 passesMcGowan and Power: 10 passesWaters and Tshibola: 10 passesBroadfoot and Power: 11 passesRogers and Broadfoot: 12 passesBroadfoot and Findlay: 12 passesBurke and Mulumbu: 12 passesTshibola and Mulumbu: 12 passesFindlay and Waters: 14 passesPower and Mulumbu: 14 passesWaters and McKenzie: 16 passesMcGowan and Burke: 17 passesMcGowan and Mulumbu: 17 passesBroadfoot and Mulumbu: 18 passesRogers: 23 completed passesMcGowan: 40 completed passesBroadfoot: 39 completed passesFindlay: 38 completed passesWaters: 35 completed passesBurke: 25 completed passesPower: 38 completed passesTshibola: 20 completed passesMcKenzie: 14 completed passesMulumbu: 41 completed passesKabamba: 7 completed passes232517182962772111RogersMcGowanBroadfootFindlayWatersBurkePowerTshibolaMcKenzieMulumbuKabambaStarters, whole match · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Livingston

Stryjek and Serrano: 4 passesStryjek and Emmanuel-Thomas: 4 passesFitzwater and Serrano: 4 passesFitzwater and Bartley: 4 passesFitzwater and Mullin: 4 passesGuthrie and Serrano: 4 passesMullin and Emmanuel-Thomas: 4 passesDevlin and Mullin: 5 passesSerrano and Holt: 5 passesStryjek and Devlin: 6 passesStryjek and Fitzwater: 6 passesFitzwater and Holt: 6 passesMullin and Sibbald: 6 passesFitzwater and Guthrie: 7 passesHolt and Emmanuel-Thomas: 7 passesDevlin and Emmanuel-Thomas: 8 passesGuthrie and Holt: 8 passesDevlin and Fitzwater: 10 passesStryjek: 14 completed passesDevlin: 23 completed passesFitzwater: 26 completed passesGuthrie: 15 completed passesSerrano: 12 completed passesBartley: 10 completed passesHolt: 22 completed passesMullin: 12 completed passesSibbald: 7 completed passesPittman: 8 completed passesEmmanuel-Thomas: 13 completed passes32252712618141089StryjekDevlinFitzwaterGuthrieSerranoBartleyHoltMullinSibbaldPittmanEmmanuel-ThomasStarters until 69' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
BroadfootMulumbu11
RogersBroadfoot11
McGowanMulumbu10
McGowanBurke9
FindlayWaters9

Livingston

FromToPasses
FitzwaterStryjek7
HoltSerrano6
DevlinFitzwater6
DevlinMullin6
StryjekDevlin5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

4+0.88+2.410−2.66−0.27+0.17+0.18−0.68+0.14+0.37+1.96+2.35+0.79+3.82−1.24+0.41−1.43+0.17+3.41−0.74+2.30−1.42+0.83+1.01+0.31+0.80−0.90−0.41+0.43−4.72−4.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 18 matches

Livingston

3−1.86+1.09−1.612+7.28+3.110+1.94−3.03−3.610+2.512+2.65−0.75−0.45+1.28+3.08+1.95+0.53−1.230.05+1.45+0.92−1.20−2.62+0.92+0.47+4.80−1.80−0.50−0.70−0.64+3.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 18 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.010.010.020.010.010.060.030.030.030.010.010.030.060.020.010.08−0.030.04−0.01−0.050.01−0.020.170.17LessMore

Livingston

0.030.010.020.020.030.010.040.030.020.040.060.030.020.020.050.080.01−0.010.040.040.070.16LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.21AttackKilmarnock0.94 → 0.94Livingston1.08 → 1.07Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.29 → 1.28Livingston1.18 → 1.18

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six17%10%−7
11th10%14%+4
Bottom4%5%+1
Livingston
Top six50%64%+14
11th2%1%−1
Dundee United
Top six42%40%−2
Hamilton Academical
11th31%30%−1
Bottom51%49%−2

From the forecast before the match (26 December 2020): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockLivingston
Expected goals0.971.17
Win30%40%
Expected Points1.191.50
Clean sheet31%38%

Kilmarnock 30%Draw 31%Livingston 40%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 44%.

Livingston goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+8%3%8%3%6%6%4%1%2%2%1%12%13%11%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 26 December 2020: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawLivingston win
Kilmarnock
Top six17%28%17%10%
11th10%6%10%14%
Bottom4%2%3%5%
Livingston
Top six50%36%47%64%
11th2%3%2%1%
Dundee United
Top six42%44%44%40%
Hamilton Academical
11th31%32%30%30%
Bottom51%53%51%49%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–223 DecDundee United (A)xG 0.65–0.93
  2. L0–220 DecAberdeen (H)xG 0.36–1.03
  3. L0–213 DecCeltic (A)xG 0.79–1.83
  4. L0–15 DecHamilton Academical (A)xG 0.85–1.56
  5. W3–121 NovRoss County (H)xG 2.12–1.87
  6. L0–16 NovSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.46–0.61

Livingston

  1. W2–023 DecHamilton Academical (A)xG 2.20–0.05
  2. W2–112 DecSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.98–1.05
  3. W2–05 DecDundee United (H)xG 1.20–0.42
  4. L0–121 NovSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.46–0.39
  5. D1–16 NovRoss County (A)xG 1.07–0.62
  6. L0–231 OctMotherwell (H)xG 0.70–1.40

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockLivingston
Position8th6th
Played1818
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠2–⁠116–⁠3–⁠9
Points17 (0.94 per game)21 (1.17 per game)
Expected Points per game0.991.46
Goals18–⁠2320–⁠25
xG per game0.94–⁠1.501.30–⁠1.12
Home: points, xG per game1.25, 1.11–⁠1.531.11, 1.07–⁠1.30
Away: points, xG per game0.70, 0.80–⁠1.481.22, 1.53–⁠0.94
ManagerAlex Dyer (18)David Martindale (3)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.21AttackKilmarnock0.94, 9thLivingston1.08, 6thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.29, 9thLivingston1.18, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecKilmarnock attack: 0.94Livingston attack: 1.081.080.94LivingstonKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecKilmarnock defence: 1.29Livingston defence: 1.181.291.18

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockLivingston
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−39%+12%average−25%
Counter-attacks−90%−71%−100%−71%
Set pieces−5%+29%+13%+14%
Penalties−13%+15%−13%−13%
Headers−22%+1%+13%+2%
Left side−16%+21%−17%−33%
Centre−39%+10%+21%−6%
Right side−30%+11%−20%−14%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdLivingston concededLeft side−16%−14%Centre−39%−6%Right side−30%−33%Open play−39%−25%Counter-attacks−90%−71%Set pieces−5%+14%Headers−22%+2%

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−17%+11%Centre+21%+10%Right side−20%+21%Open playaverage+12%Counter-attacks−100%−71%Set pieces+13%+29%Headers+13%+1%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockLivingston

0.94xG1.30
1.50xG against1.12
45%Possession49%
9.6Shots10.4
15.4Shots against9.6
3.1Shots on target2.8
0.9Big chances1.6
15.7Touches in the opposition box19.4
358Passes354
70%Pass accuracy61%
4.7Corners5.2
45%Field tilt53%
36.8Final-third entries34.7
8.5Box entries9.2
15.5Passes per defensive action12.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level410.971.41
Ahead170.882.12
Behind320.931.29

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.151.00
Ahead141.271.12
Behind321.521.29

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.192–4
16–300.180.264–6
31–450.170.173–2
46–600.140.203–3
61–750.210.313–3
76–900.150.383–5

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.180.113–2
16–300.250.241–9
31–450.140.252–5
46–600.240.206–7
61–750.270.165–0
76–900.220.173–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWRogers 17Eastwood 1Millen 9McGowan 5Rossi 3Broadfoot 18Findlay 15Dikamona 3Waters 14Haunstrup 3Tshibola 1Power 13Kabamba 5Dikamona 1Dicker 13McKenzie 3Kiltie 1Tshibola 16Waters 1Pinnock 1Burke 14Brophy 2McKenzie 1Kabamba 11Brophy 6Kiltie 1Kiltie 8Pinnock 4McKenzie 34-3-3 in 9 of 18 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (9), 4-4-2 (5), 4-2-3-1 (2), 3-4-3 (1), 4-5-1 (1)

Livingston

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMcCrorie 10Stryjek 8Devlin 16Robinson 1Ambrose 1Brown 6Ambrose 6Fitzwater 5Guthrie 17Taylor-Sinclair 2Serrano 11Lawson 2Ambrose 2Bartley 14Pittman 2Sibbald 9Holt 8Forrest 2Robinson 5Mullin 4Fitzwater 3Pittman 12Bartley 3Holt 1Forrest 12Sibbald 3Robinson 1Emmanuel-Thomas 4Tiffoney 3Dykes 34-2-3-1 in 9 of 18 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (9), 3-4-2-1 (3), 4-3-3 (2), 3-4-3 (1), 5-3-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
17 October 2020Livingston1–3KilmarnockxG 1.53–2.27

1 league meeting since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 1, Livingston won 0, and 0 were drawn. Goals 3–1 and xG 2.27–1.53 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Burke151,280520.210.24
Pinnock5521020.050.30
Brophy8637200.320.02
Kabamba161,416500.290.02

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Forrest141,228300.180.21
Robinson10927100.180.08
Pittman181,604310.190.05
Holt11996120.110.12

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.