Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Kilmarnock 1–1 St. Mirren

Saturday 2 January 2021, 15:00 · Rugby Park · Round 22 · Half-time 1–0

Kilmarnock Whitehall 12'

St. Mirren Rogers 90' (og)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
Goals11
xG0.970.52
Expected Points1.770.86

Kilmarnock 47%Draw 37%St. Mirren 16%

Most likely score 1–0, 26%. Final score 1–1, 17%.

St. Mirren goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+19%10%2%17%3%10%6%2%2%1%26%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTKabamba on for Whitehall, 76'McAllister on for Tait, 23'Dennis on for Erhahon and Erwin on for Obika, 65'MacPherson on for Connolly, 74'Whitehall 12'Rogers 90' (og)Kilmarnock 0.97St. Mirren 0.5200.511.50153045607590HTKabamba on for Whitehall, 76'McAllister on for Tait, 23'Dennis on for Erhahon and Erwin on for Obika, 65'MacPherson on for Connolly, 74'Whitehall 12'Rogers 90' (og)0.970.52KilmarnockSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockSt. Mirren

0.97 −0.03xG0.52 −0.56
1.06 +0.01xG on target0.04 −0.84
9 −0.8Shots8 −3.9
3 −0.1Shots on target1 −2.7
1 0.0Big chances0 −1.1
27 +11Touches in the opposition box17 −2
41% −4Possession59% +13
346 −12Passes498 +149
71% +2Pass accuracy80% +13
53% +6Field tilt47% +4
43 +6Final-third entries40 +6
16 +7.5Box entries15 +7.2
12.2 −3Passes per defensive action10.8 −3
7 +2.2Corners7 +1.9
16 +4Tackles8 −5
18 +7Interceptions9 −3
19 +2Clearances22 +1
1 −1.4Saves2 −1.8
15 +3Fouls14 +2
3 +0.7Offsides1 −0.6

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Whitehall 15', 0.08 xGKiltie 32', 0.07 xGFindlay 3', 0.06 xGKabamba 79', 0.06 xGBurke 83', 0.06 xGKiltie 28', 0.05 xGKiltie 76', 0.05 xGPower 32', 0.03 xGWhitehall 12', 0.52 xG, goal54%0.52 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.52 xG, 1 goal33%0.32 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.32 xG, 0 goals5%0.05 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals8%0.08 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

McCarthy 84', 0.19 xGObika 64', 0.06 xGShaughnessy 84', 0.06 xGErhahon 45', 0.05 xGErhahon 45+3', 0.04 xGMcGrath 54', 0.04 xGFraser 90', 0.04 xGErwin 65', 0.03 xG37%0.19 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.19 xG, 0 goals20%0.10 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals22%0.11 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals14%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals8%0.04 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockSt. Mirren

0.31 5 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.21 5 shots, 0 goals
0.67 4 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.30 3 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
13 min (14%) · Kilmarnock 0.58, St. Mirren 0.04 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
81 min (86%) · Kilmarnock 0.39, St. Mirren 0.48 xG

Line-ups

23251732921671012RogersMcGowanBroadfootFindlayHaunstrupBurkeMulumbuPowerMcKenzieKiltieWhitehallOwn goalYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoal76'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Alex Dyer122542211772539AlnwickFraserMcCarthyShaughnessyTaitConnollyMcGrathDoyle-HayesErhahonMasonObikaYellow card23'74'65'65'St. Mirren 4-5-1Jim Goodwin

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 76' Kabamba for Whitehall

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 23' McAllister for Tait · yellow card 71'
  • 65' Dennis for Erhahon
  • 65' Erwin for Obika
  • 74' MacPherson for Connolly

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
Rogers GK900.000.0000.0232
McGowan RB900.000.1210.1338
BroadfootCB900.000.0400.1594
FindlayCB900.060.0100.0458
HaunstrupLB900.000.0100.0128
BurkeRM9010.060.2630.2577
Mulumbu CM900.000.0800.0777
PowerCM900.030.0400.11117
McKenzieLM900.000.1120.0971
KiltieST900.170.0200.0500
WhitehallST7610.600.011−0.0913
KabambaFW140.060.0000.0400

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
AlnwickGK900.000.0000.0681
FraserRB900.040.0600.1572
McCarthyCB900.190.0100.0767
ShaughnessyCB900.060.0310.0548
TaitLB230.000.0000.0001
ConnollyRM740.000.0410.0862
McGrathCM900.040.131−0.0354
Doyle-Hayes CM900.000.0200.0699
ErhahonCM650.100.0300.0143
MasonLM900.000.0200.0265
ObikaST650.060.030−0.0410
McAllister FW670.000.0510.0641
DennisFW250.000.011−0.0200
ErwinFW250.030.0100.0400
MacPhersonMF160.000.0100.0100

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

McGowan and Whitehall: 4 passesFindlay and Haunstrup: 4 passesFindlay and McKenzie: 4 passesBroadfoot and Mulumbu: 4 passesHaunstrup and Power: 4 passesBurke and Power: 4 passesBurke and Whitehall: 4 passesMulumbu and Kiltie: 5 passesPower and Whitehall: 5 passesMcGowan and Mulumbu: 6 passesMcGowan and Kiltie: 6 passesMulumbu and Power: 6 passesMulumbu and McKenzie: 6 passesPower and Kiltie: 6 passesRogers and Findlay: 7 passesHaunstrup and McKenzie: 7 passesBurke and Mulumbu: 7 passesRogers and Broadfoot: 8 passesFindlay and Mulumbu: 8 passesHaunstrup and Kiltie: 8 passesPower and McKenzie: 8 passesHaunstrup and Mulumbu: 9 passesMcGowan and Power: 11 passesMcKenzie and Kiltie: 11 passesMcGowan and Burke: 12 passesBurke and Kiltie: 17 passesRogers: 14 completed passesMcGowan: 26 completed passesFindlay: 16 completed passesBroadfoot: 16 completed passesHaunstrup: 24 completed passesBurke: 20 completed passesMulumbu: 31 completed passesPower: 26 completed passesMcKenzie: 18 completed passesKiltie: 26 completed passesWhitehall: 7 completed passes23217532921671012RogersMcGowanFindlayBroadfootHaunstrupBurkeMulumbuPowerMcKenzieKiltieWhitehallStarters until 76' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

St. Mirren

Connolly and McGrath: 3 passesDoyle-Hayes and Erhahon: 3 passesMason and Obika: 3 passesAlnwick and McCarthy: 4 passesFraser and Connolly: 4 passesMcCarthy and Tait: 4 passesTait and McGrath: 4 passesTait and Mason: 4 passesTait and Erhahon: 5 passesFraser and McCarthy: 6 passesMcCarthy and McGrath: 7 passesMcCarthy and Doyle-Hayes: 7 passesFraser and Doyle-Hayes: 8 passesShaughnessy and Tait: 8 passesAlnwick: 5 completed passesFraser: 12 completed passesShaughnessy: 8 completed passesMcCarthy: 17 completed passesTait: 13 completed passesConnolly: 5 completed passesMcGrath: 11 completed passesDoyle-Hayes: 14 completed passesErhahon: 9 completed passesMason: 4 completed passesObika: 3 completed passes122452211772539AlnwickFraserShaughnessyMcCarthyTaitConnollyMcGrathDoyle-HayesErhahonMasonObikaStarters until 23' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
KiltieBurke10
McGowanBurke9
HaunstrupMulumbu9
McGowanPower8
KiltieMcKenzie8

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
Doyle-HayesFraser13
McCarthyDoyle-Hayes12
FraserMcCarthy10
Doyle-HayesMcCarthy10
McCarthyMcGrath10

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

3−0.47+1.514+1.35−2.27+0.87+0.210+3.03−3.96−2.511+3.35+1.211+5.95+1.25+0.56+0.71−2.15+1.54+1.54+0.97+3.25+3.01−0.95+3.52+0.80−1.94+3.21+0.80−0.80−0.52+1.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 20 matches

St. Mirren

4−0.83−2.916+2.714+8.212+7.03−4.69+0.67+0.17−1.26−1.87+2.58+1.62−2.410+5.14−2.14−0.61−2.81−1.84+0.640.00−2.43+1.30−1.12−0.22−0.41+0.11+0.81+0.11+0.60−0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 18 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.020.010.040.010.010.010.010.060.010.040.030.010.040.060.090.020.02−0.020.010.040.01−0.060.070.150.20LessMore

St. Mirren

0.010.040.010.030.010.020.020.010.040.030.030.070.010.040.09−0.010.10−0.020.07−0.07−0.11−0.04−0.020.17LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.18AttackKilmarnock0.96 → 0.95St. Mirren0.93 → 0.91Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.23 → 1.22St. Mirren1.15 → 1.16

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six22%19%−3
11th7%7%0
Bottom2%2%0
St. Mirren
Top six47%44%−3
11th3%3%0

From the forecast before the match (2 January 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
Expected goals0.961.02
Win32%35%
Expected Points1.291.38
Clean sheet36%38%

Kilmarnock 32%Draw 32%St. Mirren 35%

Most likely score 0–0, 14%. Both sides score 40%.

St. Mirren goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+7%2%7%2%6%6%3%1%2%2%1%14%13%13%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 2 January 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawSt. Mirren win
Kilmarnock
Top six22%34%19%12%
11th7%3%7%10%
Bottom2%1%2%3%
St. Mirren
Top six47%33%44%62%
11th3%5%3%1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. W2–030 DecMotherwell (A)xG 1.78–0.40
  2. L1–226 DecLivingston (H)xG 1.22–0.68
  3. L0–223 DecDundee United (A)xG 0.65–0.93
  4. L0–220 DecAberdeen (H)xG 0.36–1.03
  5. L0–213 DecCeltic (A)xG 0.79–1.83
  6. L0–15 DecHamilton Academical (A)xG 0.85–1.56

St. Mirren

  1. L0–230 DecRangers (H)xG 0.71–0.71
  2. W2–026 DecRoss County (A)xG 1.79–0.54
  3. L0–123 DecHibernian (A)xG 0.85–0.86
  4. W3–219 DecSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.07–1.03
  5. W1–012 DecMotherwell (A)xG 1.08–1.78
  6. D1–15 DecAberdeen (H)xG 2.58–0.39

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
Position8th7th
Played2018
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠2–⁠126–⁠3–⁠9
Points20 (1.00 per game)21 (1.17 per game)
Expected Points per game1.111.30
Goals21–⁠2514–⁠21
xG per game1.00–⁠1.411.08–⁠1.21
Home: points, xG per game1.11, 1.12–⁠1.431.00, 1.22–⁠1.00
Away: points, xG per game0.91, 0.89–⁠1.391.33, 0.94–⁠1.41
ManagerAlex Dyer (20)Jim Goodwin (18)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.18AttackKilmarnock0.96, 8thSt. Mirren0.93, 9thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.23, 8thSt. Mirren1.15, 6th

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecKilmarnock attack: 0.96St. Mirren attack: 0.930.960.93St. MirrenKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecKilmarnock defence: 1.23St. Mirren defence: 1.151.231.15

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−41%+5%−19%+11%
Counter-attacks−91%−72%−41%−100%
Set pieces−1%+24%+12%−26%
Penalties+30%+4%−71%−42%
Headers−25%average−15%+9%
Left side−17%+11%+1%−7%
Centre−38%+6%−2%−30%
Right side−32%+8%−36%+50%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−17%+50%Centre−38%−30%Right side−32%−7%Open play−41%+11%Counter-attacks−91%−100%Set pieces−1%−26%Headers−25%+9%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+1%+8%Centre−2%+6%Right side−36%+11%Open play−19%+5%Counter-attacks−41%−72%Set pieces+12%+24%Headers−15%average

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockSt. Mirren

1.00xG1.08
1.41xG against1.21
45%Possession46%
9.8Shots11.9
14.7Shots against12.8
3.1Shots on target3.7
1.0Big chances1.1
16.3Touches in the opposition box19.2
358Passes349
69%Pass accuracy66%
4.8Corners5.1
46%Field tilt44%
36.5Final-third entries34.5
8.5Box entries7.8
15.5Passes per defensive action14.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level440.981.31
Ahead181.141.83
Behind290.941.29

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level411.241.14
Ahead190.941.24
Behind290.941.27

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.192–4
16–300.170.254–6
31–450.160.154–2
46–600.220.185–4
61–750.210.283–3
76–900.150.353–6

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.190.183–1
16–300.180.222–7
31–450.190.202–5
46–600.120.242–2
61–750.110.231–5
76–900.290.144–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWRogers 19Eastwood 1Millen 9McGowan 7Rossi 3Broadfoot 20Findlay 17Dikamona 3Waters 16Haunstrup 3Tshibola 1Power 15Kabamba 5Burke 1Dicker 13McKenzie 3Kiltie 2Tshibola 18Pinnock 1Waters 1Burke 14Brophy 2McKenzie 1Kabamba 12Brophy 6Kiltie 1Kiltie 8McKenzie 5Pinnock 44-3-3 in 9 of 20 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (9), 4-4-2 (5), 4-2-3-1 (3), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 4-5-1 (1)

St. Mirren

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMCMLMSTAlnwick 15Zlamal 3Fraser 16Tait 1MacPherson 1McCarthy 17Shaughnessy 15Foley 3Tait 1Tait 13Obika 2Fraser 2McAllister 6Connolly 5Morias 2Foley 7Sheron 6Durmus 1McGrath 15Doyle-Ha… 6Doyle-HayesObika 1Erhahon 12MacPhers… 5MacPhersonConnolly 1Durmus 6Mason 4Obika 3Erwin 7Obika 6Morias 34-5-1 in 6 of 18 starts

Formations: 4-5-1 (6), 4-1-4-1 (4), 4-3-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (2), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 4-4-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
26 September 2020St. Mirren0–1KilmarnockxG 0.49–0.65

1 league meeting since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 1, St. Mirren won 0, and 0 were drawn. Goals 1–0 and xG 0.65–0.49 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Burke161,371620.240.24
Brophy8637200.320.02
Pinnock6611030.050.27
Kabamba171,520500.270.02

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Obika121,132300.340.06
Morias7664000.250.09
Erwin7714200.310.02
McAllister6487020.090.18

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.