Digressive Celts

Matches › 2021/22

Aberdeen 2–1 Hearts

Saturday 30 October 2021, 15:00 · Pittodrie Stadium · Round 12 · Half-time 0–1 · Attendance 9,736

Aberdeen Watkins 49', Ferguson 69'

Hearts Souttar 45+2' (pen) · Halliday sent off 89'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

AberdeenHearts
Goals21
xG1.110.95
Non-penalty xG1.110.16
Expected Points1.381.25

Aberdeen 34%Draw 37%Hearts 29%

Most likely score 1–1, 29%. Final score 2–1, 14%.

Hearts goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+6%3%7%4%4%14%3%1%5%1%21%29%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTHalliday (Hearts), red card 89'Hayes on for Watkins, 85'McGinn on for McGeouch, 88'McKay on for Mackay-Steven and Woodburn on for Ginnelly, 57'Halliday on for Cochrane, 72'Watkins 49'Ferguson 69'Souttar 45+2' (pen)Aberdeen 1.11Hearts 0.9500.511.50153045607590HTHalliday (Hearts), red card 89'Hayes on for Watkins, 85'McGinn on for McGeouch, 88'McKay on for Mackay-Steven and Woodburn on for Ginnelly, 57'Halliday on for Cochrane, 72'Watkins 49'Ferguson 69'Souttar 45+2' (pen)1.110.95AberdeenHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

AberdeenHearts

1.11 +0.15xG0.95 −0.44
1.11Non-penalty xG0.16
1.22 +0.27xG on target1.00 −0.62
17 +5Shots5 −8
5 +0.9Shots on target1 −3.1
2 +1.0Big chances1 −0.4
18 +2Touches in the opposition box5 −19
51% −6Possession49% −7
465 +17Passes444 −6
72% −5Pass accuracy70% −8
66% +14Field tilt34% −23
31 −8Final-third entries22 −25
6 −2.3Box entries4 −8.6
21.1 +8Passes per defensive action13.8 +1
5 +0.2Corners5 −0.4
10 −2Tackles19 +5
9 −0.5Interceptions7 −1.9
11 −8Clearances6 −11
0 −1.1Saves3 −1.2
15 +2Fouls15 +4
3 +1.7Offsides3 +0.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Aberdeen

Ramirez 53', 0.14 xGFerguson 87', 0.13 xGFerguson 90+4', 0.12 xGWatkins 3', 0.10 xGHedges 27', 0.09 xGMcGinn 90+3', 0.09 xGRamirez 55', 0.07 xGFerguson 28', 0.05 xGFerguson 47', 0.04 xGWatkins 72', 0.03 xGFerguson 24', 0.02 xGWatkins 32', 0.02 xGHedges 53', 0.02 xGRamirez 55', 0.02 xGBates 68', 0.01 xGFerguson 69', 0.10 xG, goalWatkins 49', 0.08 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals50%0.56 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.56 xG, 2 goals29%0.33 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.33 xG, 0 goals21%0.23 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.23 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Kingsley 60', 0.06 xGDevlin 38', 0.04 xGGinnelly 41', 0.04 xGHalkett 48', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals12%0.02 xGCentral box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals88%0.14 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

AberdeenHearts

0.81 12 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.04 1 shot, 0 goals
0.30 5 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.12 3 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
67 min (70%) · Aberdeen 0.62, Hearts 0.93 xG
Aberdeen ahead
25 min (26%) · Aberdeen 0.38, Hearts 0.00 xG
Hearts ahead
4 min (4%) · Aberdeen 0.12, Hearts 0.02 xG

Line-ups

12782161519241179LewisBatesBrownMcCrorieOjoMcGeouchFergusonCampbellHedgesWatkinsRamirezYellow cardGoalYellow cardGoal88'85'Aberdeen 3-4-1-2Stephen Glass14193214617302111GordonSouttarHalkettKingsleySmithDevlinBaningimeCochraneGinnellyGnanduilletMackay-StevenGoalYellow card72'57'57'Hearts 3-4-3Robbie Neilson

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 85' Hayes for Watkins
  • 88' McGinn for McGeouch

Hearts substitutes

  • 57' Woodburn for Ginnelly · yellow card 61'
  • 57' McKay for Mackay-Steven
  • 72' Halliday for Cochrane · red card 89'

Players

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LewisGK900.000.0000.0110
BatesCB900.010.0000.0322
BrownCB900.000.0100.0125
McCrorie CB900.000.0000.0327
OjoRWB900.000.0100.0241
McGeouchCM8810.000.2940.0231
FergusonCM9010.450.1710.11105
Campbell LWB900.000.0210.0576
HedgesAM9010.110.0520.0753
WatkinsST8510.230.0520.0730
RamirezST900.220.051−0.0111
HayesDF50.000.1510.0810
McGinnFW20.090.000−0.0100

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0110
SouttarCB9010.790.0200.0638
Halkett CB900.020.0100.0778
KingsleyCB900.060.0100.0652
SmithRWB900.000.0910.0131
DevlinCM900.040.0100.00110
BaningimeCM900.000.010−0.0115
CochraneLWB720.000.0200.0334
GinnellyRW570.040.0000.0400
GnanduilletST900.000.2610.0430
Mackay-StevenLW570.000.0100.0310
Woodburn MF330.000.000−0.0200
McKayFW330.000.0200.0321
Halliday MF170.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Aberdeen

Brown and Hedges: 6 passesBrown and Ramirez: 6 passesOjo and Watkins: 6 passesRamirez and Watkins: 6 passesBates and McCrorie: 7 passesBrown and McGeouch: 8 passesOjo and Hedges: 8 passesCampbell and Hedges: 8 passesLewis and McCrorie: 9 passesCampbell and Watkins: 9 passesBrown and Campbell: 10 passesMcCrorie and Ferguson: 10 passesMcCrorie and Campbell: 11 passesBrown and Ferguson: 12 passesBates and Ojo: 12 passesFerguson and Campbell: 12 passesLewis and Bates: 14 passesBrown and McCrorie: 14 passesBates and McGeouch: 14 passesFerguson and Hedges: 14 passesBrown and Bates: 17 passesOjo and McGeouch: 27 passesLewis: 15 completed passesBrown: 50 completed passesBates: 41 completed passesMcCrorie: 34 completed passesOjo: 33 completed passesMcGeouch: 38 completed passesFerguson: 36 completed passesCampbell: 32 completed passesHedges: 20 completed passesRamirez: 15 completed passesWatkins: 16 completed passes18272161519241197LewisBrownBatesMcCrorieOjoMcGeouchFergusonCampbellHedgesRamirezWatkinsStarters until 85' · lines join pairs with 6+ passes

Hearts

Gordon and Kingsley: 3 passesGordon and Gnanduillet: 3 passesKingsley and Baningime: 3 passesSouttar and Ginnelly: 3 passesSmith and Gnanduillet: 3 passesCochrane and Ginnelly: 3 passesDevlin and Gnanduillet: 3 passesKingsley and Souttar: 4 passesHalkett and Cochrane: 4 passesSmith and Ginnelly: 4 passesCochrane and Mackay-Steven: 4 passesDevlin and Mackay-Steven: 4 passesGinnelly and Gnanduillet: 4 passesGordon and Souttar: 5 passesSouttar and Devlin: 5 passesSouttar and Baningime: 5 passesHalkett and Smith: 5 passesSmith and Devlin: 5 passesGordon and Halkett: 6 passesCochrane and Devlin: 6 passesKingsley and Devlin: 8 passesHalkett and Devlin: 9 passesSouttar and Smith: 11 passesKingsley and Halkett: 12 passesKingsley and Cochrane: 16 passesSouttar and Halkett: 17 passesGordon: 10 completed passesKingsley: 24 completed passesSouttar: 29 completed passesHalkett: 30 completed passesSmith: 18 completed passesCochrane: 19 completed passesDevlin: 24 completed passesBaningime: 11 completed passesGinnelly: 4 completed passesGnanduillet: 7 completed passesMackay-Steven: 6 completed passes13419217146302111GordonKingsleySouttarHalkettSmithCochraneDevlinBaningimeGinnellyGnanduilletMackay-StevenStarters until 57' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
OjoMcGeouch14
McGeouchOjo13
FergusonHedges12
BrownMcCrorie10
BatesLewis10

Hearts

FromToPasses
SouttarHalkett20
HalkettKingsley16
KingsleyHalkett12
HalkettSouttar11
SouttarSmith11

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Aberdeen

3−2.22−4.36+1.55−0.59+1.58+3.14−1.64−2.89+0.24−1.08+3.94+0.811+5.57+0.63−0.22−1.44+2.03+0.13−3.32−0.51+0.11−0.21−0.14+1.51+0.400.00−0.61+0.90−0.67−4.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 11 matches

Hearts

2−2.18+3.43−2.23−2.54−0.99+2.96−1.32−3.39+2.58+2.06+0.57+1.55−1.36+1.36+1.13−0.12−1.55+2.15+0.81−1.93+1.41−0.40−2.13+0.20−0.31+0.41+0.30−0.44+3.13−7.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 11 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Aberdeen

0.010.010.010.010.010.030.020.020.010.010.030.040.04−0.01−0.010.04−0.010.060.060.050.06LessMore

Hearts

0.020.030.010.010.010.050.030.040.01−0.020.020.040.020.01−0.010.07LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.19AttackAberdeen1.11 → 1.11Hearts1.23 → 1.22Defence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.03 → 1.02Hearts1.09 → 1.10

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Aberdeen
Top six55%65%+10
11th2%1%−1
Bottom<1%<1%0
Hearts
Title1%<1%−1
Top six95%92%−3
St. Mirren
Top six28%26%−2
Bottom2%2%0

From the forecast before the match (30 October 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

AberdeenHearts
Expected goals1.101.05
Win36%33%
Expected Points1.391.31
Clean sheet35%33%

Aberdeen 36%Draw 31%Hearts 33%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 44%.

Hearts goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+6%2%7%2%7%7%4%1%3%3%1%12%12%12%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 30 October 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowAberdeen winDrawHearts win
Aberdeen
Top six55%65%52%47%
11th2%1%2%3%
Bottom<1%<1%<1%1%
Hearts
Title1%<1%1%1%
Top six95%92%95%98%
St. Mirren
Top six28%26%29%29%
Bottom2%2%2%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Aberdeen

  1. D2–227 OctRangers (A)xG 1.02–2.34
  2. W1–023 OctHibernian (H)xG 0.24–0.22
  3. L1–216 OctDundee FC (A)xG 0.96–0.56
  4. L1–23 OctCeltic (H)xG 0.57–1.65
  5. L2–326 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.11–1.50
  6. L0–118 SepSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.55–0.31

Hearts

  1. D1–127 OctSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.94–1.22
  2. D1–123 OctDundee FC (H)xG 1.49–0.52
  3. D1–116 OctRangers (A)xG 0.49–3.34
  4. W2–02 OctMotherwell (H)xG 2.16–1.12
  5. W3–025 SepLivingston (H)xG 2.43–0.12
  6. D2–218 SepRoss County (A)xG 1.21–1.44

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

AberdeenHearts
Position8th3rd
Played1111
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠3–⁠55–⁠6–⁠0
Points12 (1.09 per game)21 (1.91 per game)
Expected Points per game1.221.64
Goals13–⁠1517–⁠8
xG per game0.96–⁠1.051.39–⁠1.09
Home: points, xG per game1.40, 0.99–⁠0.752.00, 1.65–⁠0.81
Away: points, xG per game0.83, 0.94–⁠1.301.80, 1.07–⁠1.43
ManagerStephen Glass (16)Robbie Neilson (11)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.19AttackAberdeen1.11, 5thHearts1.23, 4thDefence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.03, 3rdHearts1.09, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctAberdeen attack: 1.11Hearts attack: 1.231.231.11HeartsAberdeenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctAberdeen defence: 1.03Hearts defence: 1.091.091.03

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

AberdeenHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−18%−21%−13%−7%
Counter-attacks−54%−35%−37%−37%
Set pieces+10%−4%+13%+23%
Penalties−100%+4%+161%−100%
Headers+17%+7%−26%−30%
Left side−34%−15%+23%−3%
Centre−15%−22%−27%−8%
Right side+15%−10%+9%+19%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdHearts concededLeft side−34%+19%Centre−15%−8%Right side+15%−3%Open play−18%−7%Counter-attacks−54%−37%Set pieces+10%+23%Headers+17%−30%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdAberdeen concededLeft side+23%−10%Centre−27%−22%Right side+9%−15%Open play−13%−21%Counter-attacks−37%−35%Set pieces+13%−4%Headers−26%+7%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

AberdeenHearts

0.96xG1.39
1.05xG against1.09
57%Possession56%
11.9Shots12.8
9.0Shots against11.9
4.1Shots on target4.1
1.0Big chances1.4
15.5Touches in the opposition box23.8
448Passes450
76%Pass accuracy78%
4.8Corners5.4
52%Field tilt56%
39.3Final-third entries47.1
8.3Box entries12.6
13.4Passes per defensive action12.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level440.831.16
Ahead200.431.22
Behind251.630.71

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.691.00
Ahead341.120.99
Behind90.851.95

xG by period

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.161–2
16–300.230.114–2
31–450.110.181–2
46–600.140.193–4
61–750.160.142–2
76–900.170.282–3

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.190.173–2
16–300.200.123–0
31–450.340.224–2
46–600.310.131–1
61–750.200.123–1
76–900.140.333–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Aberdeen

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWLewis 9Woods 2Ramsay 9Ojo 1Gurr 1Bates 6Gallagher 6McCrorie 7Considine 2Brown 1MacKenzie 7Campbell 2Hayes 1Longstaff 3McGeouch 2Ojo 2Brown 9Jenks 3Ferguson 8Hedges 1McGinn 1Ojo 5Hedges 3Ferguson 2Ramirez 9Emmanuel-Tho… 2Emmanuel-ThomasHayes 4Samuels 3Watkins 24-3-3 in 3 of 11 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (3), 4-2-3-1 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 5-4-1 (1), 4-1-3-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

Hearts

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWGordon 11Souttar 9Moore 3Halkett 11Kingsley 7Cochrane 3Smith 10McKay 1Baningime 11Woodburn 1Devlin 5Haring 4Halliday 1Cochrane 6Halliday 4Kingsley 1Ginnelly 4McKay 4Woodburn 2Boyce 10Gnanduillet 1Mackay-Steven 5Woodburn 4Gnanduillet 13-4-3 in 7 of 11 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (7), 3-4-2-1 (3), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
22 August 2021Hearts1–1AberdeenxG 1.17–0.54

1 league meeting since 2020/21: Aberdeen won 0, Hearts won 0, and 1 was a draw. Goals 1–1 and xG 0.54–1.17 per game.

Key players

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Ramirez10865610.300.05
Ramsay9726040.010.28
Ferguson10891110.120.08
Brown10928200.120.03

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Boyce10842610.660.05
McKay6515010.160.31
Mackay-Steven6495120.400.06
Kingsley8701200.120.07

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.