Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

St. Mirren 3–0 Livingston

Saturday 1 April 2023, 15:00 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 30 · Half-time 3–0 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 5,984

St. Mirren O'Hara 5' (pen), 42' (pen), Watt 18'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenLivingston
Goals30
xG3.071.20
Non-penalty xG1.491.20
Expected Points2.650.24

St. Mirren 84%Draw 11%Livingston 4%

Most likely score 3–1, 18%. Final score 3–0, 11%.

Livingston goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+2%5%9%6%2%11%11%4%6%9%5%2%1%2%1%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

012340153045607590HTKiltie on for O'Hara, 46'Greive on for Watt and Flynn on for Baccus, 68'Tanser on for Small, 84'Offord on for Main, 90+2'Montano on for Penrice and Omeonga on for Holt, 46'Kelly on for Pittman, 62'Anderson on for Shinnie, 71'Brandon on for Boyes, 80'O'Hara 5' (pen)Watt 18'O'Hara 42' (pen)St. Mirren 3.07Livingston 1.20012340153045607590HTKiltie on for O'Hara, 46'Greive on for Watt and Flynn on for Baccus, 68'Tanser on for Small, 84'Offord on for Main, 90+2'Montano on for Penrice and Omeonga on for Holt, 46'Kelly on for Pittman, 62'Anderson on for Shinnie, 71'Brandon on for Boyes, 80'O'Hara 5' (pen)Watt 18'O'Hara 42' (pen)3.071.20St. MirrenLivingston

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenLivingston

3.07 +1.95xG1.20 +0.17
1.49Non-penalty xG1.20
3.11 +2.13xG on target0.46 −0.62
15 +3.0Shots13 +3.4
7 +3.8Shots on target3 −0.4
3 +1.4Big chances1 −0.4
17 −3Touches in the opposition box25 +6
42% +3Possession58% +17
249 −32Passes354 +66
55% −8Pass accuracy68% +6
47% +7Field tilt53% +13
30 −2Final-third entries38 +13
9 −0.6Box entries14 +5.8
12.5 −4Passes per defensive action21.1 +5
4 −1.4Corners9 +5.1
13 −2Tackles11 −3
4 −5.1Interceptions4 −5.8
32 +9Clearances22 −4
3 +0.8Saves4 +1.1
11 −2Fouls11 −1
3 +1.8Offsides0 −1.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Main 10', 0.12 xGMain 31', 0.07 xGKiltie 55', 0.06 xGShaughnessy 22', 0.05 xGStrain 50', 0.05 xGWatt 14', 0.04 xGBaccus 29', 0.04 xGShaughnessy 82', 0.04 xGO'Hara 30', 0.03 xGMain 32', 0.02 xGBaccus 55', 0.02 xGStrain 55', 0.02 xGWatt 18', 0.94 xG, goal63%0.94 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.94 xG, 1 goal20%0.30 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.30 xG, 0 goals10%0.15 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals7%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Livingston

Nouble 60', 0.45 xGGuthrie 73', 0.12 xGNouble 36', 0.10 xGGuthrie 72', 0.10 xGPittman 45+2', 0.07 xGGuthrie 45+3', 0.07 xGNouble 13', 0.06 xGKelly 84', 0.06 xGBoyes 8', 0.05 xGDevlin 47', 0.05 xGHolt 45+7', 0.03 xGMontano 46', 0.03 xGShinnie 45+6', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals81%0.97 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 0.97 xG, 0 goals17%0.20 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenLivingston

1.28 7 shots, 1 goalOpen play1.07 11 shots, 0 goals
0.21 6 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.12 2 shots, 0 goals
1.58 2 shots, 2 goalsPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
5 min (5%) · St. Mirren 0.79, Livingston 0.00 xG
St. Mirren ahead
94 min (95%) · St. Mirren 2.28, Livingston 1.20 xG

Line-ups

122418231713616910CarsonFraserShaughnessyDunneStrainBaccusGogicO'HaraSmallWattMainGoalGoalYellow cardGoal68'46'84'68'90+2'St. Mirren 3-5-2Stephen Robinson122351529182281928GeorgeDevlinde LucasFitzwaterBoyesPenriceHoltShinniePittmanNoubleGuthrieYellow cardYellow card80'46'46'71'62'Livingston 5-3-2David Martindale

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 46' Kiltie for O'Hara
  • 68' Flynn for Baccus
  • 68' Greive for Watt
  • 84' Tanser for Small
  • 90+2' Offord for Main

Livingston substitutes

  • 46' Omeonga for Holt
  • 46' Montano for Penrice · yellow card 66'
  • 62' Kelly for Pittman
  • 71' Anderson for Shinnie
  • 80' Brandon for Boyes

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
CarsonGK900.000.0000.0222
FraserCB900.000.0000.0323
ShaughnessyCB900.090.0310.1047
DunneCB900.000.0400.0556
StrainRWB900.070.0300.09102
BaccusCM680.050.0420.1037
GogicCM900.000.0000.01110
O'Hara CM4621.600.0100.0110
SmallLWB840.000.1540.0952
WattST6810.980.0110.0910
MainST9010.220.0410.0213
KiltieFW440.060.0010.0211
FlynnMF220.000.0000.0014
GreiveFW220.000.0000.0002
TanserMF60.000.0000.0002
OffordFW00.000.0000.0110

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GeorgeGK900.000.0000.0221
Devlin RWB900.050.2320.3462
de LucasCB900.000.0000.0836
FitzwaterCB900.000.0100.0777
BoyesCB800.050.0100.0968
PenriceLWB460.000.0710.0124
Holt CM460.030.0000.0001
ShinnieCM710.020.1420.0642
PittmanCM620.070.000−0.0112
NoubleST900.610.0210.0960
GuthrieST900.280.0420.0502
OmeongaMF440.000.2310.2151
Montano FW440.030.3920.3093
KellyMF280.060.0100.0512
AndersonFW190.000.0000.0000
BrandonMF100.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

Carson and Main: 3 passesDunne and Baccus: 3 passesDunne and Main: 3 passesGogic and O'Hara: 3 passesMain and Watt: 3 passesShaughnessy and Small: 4 passesStrain and Main: 4 passesSmall and Watt: 4 passesBaccus and Main: 4 passesBaccus and Watt: 4 passesShaughnessy and Strain: 5 passesStrain and Watt: 5 passesBaccus and Gogic: 5 passesSmall and O'Hara: 12 passesStrain and Baccus: 13 passesCarson: 8 completed passesShaughnessy: 10 completed passesDunne: 14 completed passesFraser: 4 completed passesStrain: 19 completed passesSmall: 9 completed passesBaccus: 11 completed passesGogic: 10 completed passesO'Hara: 12 completed passesMain: 5 completed passesWatt: 10 completed passes141822231617136109CarsonShaughnessyDunneFraserStrainSmallBaccusGogicO'HaraMainWattStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Livingston

George and Boyes: 3 passesDevlin and de Lucas: 3 passesFitzwater and Shinnie: 3 passesBoyes and Shinnie: 3 passesBoyes and Holt: 3 passesPenrice and Holt: 3 passesPenrice and Pittman: 3 passesPenrice and Nouble: 3 passesShinnie and Pittman: 3 passesShinnie and Guthrie: 3 passesPittman and Nouble: 3 passesGeorge and de Lucas: 4 passesDevlin and Shinnie: 4 passesDevlin and Nouble: 4 passesFitzwater and Pittman: 4 passesBoyes and Guthrie: 4 passesde Lucas and Shinnie: 4 passesPenrice and Guthrie: 4 passesGuthrie and Nouble: 4 passesFitzwater and Boyes: 5 passesGeorge and Fitzwater: 6 passesFitzwater and de Lucas: 6 passesPittman and Guthrie: 6 passesGeorge: 10 completed passesDevlin: 9 completed passesFitzwater: 13 completed passesBoyes: 11 completed passesde Lucas: 14 completed passesPenrice: 11 completed passesShinnie: 14 completed passesHolt: 6 completed passesPittman: 12 completed passesGuthrie: 9 completed passesNouble: 7 completed passes125152329221882819GeorgeDevlinFitzwaterBoyesde LucasPenriceShinnieHoltPittmanGuthrieNoubleStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
StrainBaccus9
DunneMain6
SmallO'Hara6
O'HaraSmall6
GogicBaccus5

Livingston

FromToPasses
FitzwaterGeorge9
GuthrieNouble7
PittmanFitzwater6
DevlinGuthrie6
BoyesMontano6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

3−2.111+3.79−4.75−2.84−0.25−2.011+6.312+5.58+1.06+1.04+0.76+1.75−1.56+1.65+1.24+1.72−1.45+1.34+1.21−0.70−1.03+1.10−2.20−1.11+0.32+1.30−0.60−0.83−6.51−5.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 29 matches

Livingston

2−3.75−2.619+4.66+0.96−1.85−1.13−2.011+3.58−0.45−0.97+2.55+2.35+1.15−2.15+0.64+1.03+0.82−1.20−2.53+1.32+1.12+0.71−1.71−0.21+0.70−0.50−0.31+0.44−5.20−4.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 29 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.020.010.020.030.030.010.010.030.030.05−0.010.030.100.010.01−0.010.060.010.15LessMore

Livingston

0.010.010.010.020.020.030.030.020.020.100.060.040.040.020.010.020.090.11−0.01−0.02−0.050.100.180.220.26LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.26AttackSt. Mirren1.04 → 1.10Livingston1.00 → 0.97Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.28 → 1.24Livingston1.41 → 1.46

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six46%71%+25
Livingston
Top six62%39%−23
Aberdeen
Top six94%92%−2
Hibernian
Top six95%94%−1

From the forecast before the match (1 April 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenLivingston
Expected goals1.410.92
Win48%24%
Expected Points1.721.00
Clean sheet40%24%

St. Mirren 48%Draw 28%Livingston 24%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 46%.

Livingston goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+8%4%1%6%2%9%4%1%5%4%2%2%1%10%13%13%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 1 April 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawLivingston win
St. Mirren
Top six46%71%32%9%
Livingston
Top six62%39%72%95%
Aberdeen
Top six94%92%95%96%
Hibernian
Top six95%94%96%97%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. D1–118 MarDundee United (A)xG 1.75–1.12
  2. L1–55 MarCeltic (H)xG 0.79–2.48
  3. D1–125 FebSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.59–0.39
  4. W1–018 FebRoss County (H)xG 2.34–0.63
  5. L1–215 FebMotherwell (A)xG 0.46–0.48
  6. L0–14 FebHibernian (H)xG 0.36–0.64

Livingston

  1. W2–118 MarRoss County (H)xG 0.66–1.29
  2. D1–18 MarDundee United (H)xG 1.17–1.04
  3. L1–44 MarHibernian (H)xG 0.43–1.36
  4. L0–125 FebAberdeen (A)xG 0.43–1.08
  5. L0–318 FebRangers (H)xG 0.84–2.96
  6. W3–14 FebKilmarnock (H)xG 1.45–1.12

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenLivingston
Position7th6th
Played2929
Won, drawn, lost10–⁠8–⁠1111–⁠6–⁠12
Points38 (1.31 per game)39 (1.34 per game)
Expected Points per game1.221.06
Goals31–⁠4231–⁠44
xG per game1.12–⁠1.301.03–⁠1.55
Home: points, xG per game1.87, 1.17–⁠1.061.56, 1.08–⁠1.45
Away: points, xG per game0.71, 1.07–⁠1.551.08, 0.96–⁠1.67
ManagerStephen Robinson (22)David Martindale (90)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.26AttackSt. Mirren1.04, 6thLivingston1.00, 8thDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.28, 4thLivingston1.41, 9th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarSt. Mirren attack: 1.04Livingston attack: 1.001.041.00LivingstonSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarSt. Mirren defence: 1.28Livingston defence: 1.411.411.28

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenLivingston
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−23%−11%−40%+13%
Counter-attacks−21%−12%−79%+3%
Set pieces−1%−14%+5%+30%
Penalties+7%+79%+43%+25%
Headers+15%−10%−35%+17%
Left side−12%average−17%+5%
Centre−21%−16%−34%+12%
Right side−17%−18%−38%+37%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdLivingston concededLeft side−12%+37%Centre−21%+12%Right side−17%+5%Open play−23%+13%Counter-attacks−21%+3%Set pieces−1%+30%Headers+15%+17%

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−17%−18%Centre−34%−16%Right side−38%averageOpen play−40%−11%Counter-attacks−79%−12%Set pieces+5%−14%Headers−35%−10%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenLivingston

1.12xG1.03
1.30xG against1.55
39%Possession41%
12.0Shots9.6
11.6Shots against14.0
3.2Shots on target3.4
1.6Big chances1.4
20.3Touches in the opposition box18.5
281Passes288
62%Pass accuracy62%
5.4Corners3.9
40%Field tilt40%
32.1Final-third entries25.4
9.6Box entries8.2
16.6Passes per defensive action15.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level431.101.21
Ahead221.281.22
Behind251.031.51

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level391.091.33
Ahead300.921.55
Behind211.051.95

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.165–6
16–300.130.172–5
31–450.210.256–6
46–600.190.197–7
61–750.200.213–9
76–900.280.328–9

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.240.1110–2
16–300.160.154–4
31–450.170.357–11
46–600.120.313–7
61–750.130.274–12
76–900.210.363–8

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTCarson 29Strain 26Fraser 2Flynn 1Fraser 22Gallagher 19Gogic 11Shaughne… 6ShaughnessyDunne 26R. Taylor 3Tanser 15Tait 7O'Hara 5Baccus 24Kiltie 12Tanser 3Erhahon 20Flynn 2O'Hara 20Gogic 4Ayunga 16Greive 10Watt 3Main 27Brophy 15-3-2 in 24 of 29 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (24), 3-5-2 (5)

Livingston

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMAMAMSTGeorge 24Konovalov 4Hamilton 1Devlin 29Obileye 20de Lucas 2Fitzwater 19Boyes 10Sean Kelly 6Montano 18Penrice 6Pittman 2Holt 18Omeonga 13Shinnie 8Pittman 14Bahamboula 4Penrice 2Sean Kelly 18Kelly 6Goncalves 1Kelly 9Shinnie 8Bradley 5Nouble 10Pittman 8Penrice 4Anderson 14Nouble 11Guthrie 34-3-2-1 in 8 of 29 starts

Formations: 4-3-2-1 (8), 4-3-3 (8), 4-2-3-1 (6), 3-5-1-1 (2), 3-5-2 (2), 5-4-1 (1), 4-3-1-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
28 December 2022Livingston1–1St. MirrenxG 1.59–1.36
1 October 2022St. Mirren2–1LivingstonxG 0.77–1.45
11 May 2022St. Mirren0–0LivingstonxG 0.64–0.85
19 February 2022Livingston1–1St. MirrenxG 1.29–0.13
20 November 2021St. Mirren1–1LivingstonxG 0.91–0.76
2 October 2021Livingston0–1St. MirrenxG 1.03–0.77

9 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 4, Livingston won 0, and 5 were drawn. Goals 9–5 and xG 0.75–0.92 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Ayunga161,288320.420.04
Greive10873300.360.02
O'Hara252,135600.240.08
Main272,283600.230.08

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Bradley7569120.150.19
Anderson151,297510.230.06
Sean Kelly241,939220.170.10
Nouble211,880620.170.07

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.