Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Livingston 1–3 Kilmarnock

Saturday 17 October 2020, 15:00 · Tony Macaroni Arena · Round 11 · Half-time 1–2

Livingston Pittman 11'

Kilmarnock Tshibola 24', Burke 37' (pen), Kiltie 57'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

LivingstonKilmarnock
Goals13
xG1.532.27
Non-penalty xG1.531.48
Expected Points0.831.93

Livingston 20%Draw 24%Kilmarnock 56%

Most likely score 1–2, 13%. Final score 1–3, 10%.

Kilmarnock goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+4%7%5%2%1%8%3%6%8%3%3%5%4%1%1%1%13%10%11%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTEmmanuel-Thomas on for Tiffoney, 54'Poplatnik on for Robinson, 68'Sibbald on for Forrest, 72'McKenzie on for Burke and Brophy on for Kabamba, 70'Pinnock on for Kiltie, 77'Mulumbu on for Tshibola, 85'Pittman 11'Tshibola 24'Burke 37' (pen)Kiltie 57'Kilmarnock 2.27Livingston 1.5301230153045607590HTEmmanuel-Thomas on for Tiffoney, 54'Poplatnik on for Robinson, 68'Sibbald on for Forrest, 72'McKenzie on for Burke and Brophy on for Kabamba, 70'Pinnock on for Kiltie, 77'Mulumbu on for Tshibola, 85'Pittman 11'Tshibola 24'Burke 37' (pen)Kiltie 57'2.271.53LivingstonKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

LivingstonKilmarnock

1.53 +0.09xG2.27 +1.39
1.53Non-penalty xG1.48
0.99 −0.21xG on target2.80 +1.68
15 +4.0Shots11 +1.3
2 −1.0Shots on target5 +1.3
1 −0.7Big chances3 +2.0
33 +12.0Touches in the opposition box17 +8.0
62% +13Possession38% −5
459 +110Passes292 −54
73% +12Pass accuracy67% −2
62% +9Field tilt38% −6
54 +19Final-third entries34 −4
16 +5.9Box entries4 −5.9
7.3 −5Passes per defensive action19.3 +5
6 0.0Corners3 −2.0
13 −3Tackles9 −4
19 +9.7Interceptions13 +2.0
10 −11Clearances32 +14
2 +0.2Saves1 −1.3
14 −1Fouls14 +2
2 +0.2Offsides1 −1.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Livingston

Emmanuel-Thomas 90+1', 0.17 xGTiffoney 46', 0.15 xGDevlin 41', 0.13 xGAmbrose 76', 0.11 xGRobinson 47', 0.08 xGGuthrie 62', 0.08 xGAmbrose 68', 0.07 xGGuthrie 76', 0.06 xGForrest 19', 0.05 xGPittman 64', 0.05 xGAmbrose 69', 0.05 xGBartley 79', 0.05 xGForrest 61', 0.04 xGSerrano 65', 0.03 xGPittman 11', 0.42 xG, goal26%0.40 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 0.40 xG, 0 goals58%0.88 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.88 xG, 1 goal8%0.12 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals7%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Broadfoot 16', 0.08 xGBurke 30', 0.08 xGBurke 64', 0.07 xGBrophy 90', 0.06 xGBurke 14', 0.05 xGTshibola 24', 0.05 xGBurke 24', 0.05 xGBurke 14', 0.02 xGTshibola 24', 0.54 xG, goalKiltie 57', 0.46 xG, goal36%0.54 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.54 xG, 1 goal49%0.73 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.73 xG, 1 goal5%0.08 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.08 xG, 0 goals9%0.13 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

LivingstonKilmarnock

1.14 10 shots, 1 goalOpen play1.20 5 shots, 2 goals
0.38 5 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.29 5 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
24 min (26%) · Livingston 0.42, Kilmarnock 0.87 xG
Livingston ahead
13 min (14%) · Livingston 0.05, Kilmarnock 0.81 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
54 min (59%) · Livingston 1.06, Kilmarnock 0.60 xG

Line-ups

122527126181781122McCrorieDevlinAmbroseGuthrieSerranoBartleyHoltRobinsonPittmanForrestTiffoneyYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoalYellow card68'72'54'Livingston 4-2-3-1Gary Holt231454186278291110RogersRossiBroadfootDikamonaWatersPowerTshibolaDickerBurkeKabambaKiltieGoalGoalGoal85'70'70'77'Kilmarnock 4-3-3Alex Dyer

Livingston substitutes

  • 54' Emmanuel-Thomas for Tiffoney
  • 68' Poplatnik for Robinson
  • 72' Sibbald for Forrest

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 70' McKenzie for Burke
  • 70' Brophy for Kabamba
  • 77' Pinnock for Kiltie
  • 85' Mulumbu for Tshibola

Players

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McCrorieGK900.000.0100.0761
DevlinRB900.130.0500.2055
Ambrose CB900.220.0300.0896
Guthrie CB900.130.0400.15106
SerranoLB9010.030.2120.1195
Bartley DM900.050.3930.2649
HoltDM900.000.0700.1063
RobinsonRW680.080.0300.0532
PittmanAM9010.470.161−0.0105
ForrestLW720.090.1110.31100
Tiffoney ST540.150.0000.0100
Emmanuel-ThomasFW360.170.0520.0600
PoplatnikFW220.000.0000.0000
SibbaldMF180.000.0710.0722

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RogersGK900.000.0000.0541
RossiRB900.000.0100.0567
BroadfootCB900.080.0100.0757
DikamonaCB900.000.0000.02214
WatersLB900.000.0100.0576
PowerCM900.000.0100.0127
TshibolaCM8510.600.010−0.0115
DickerCM900.000.0300.0768
BurkeRW7011.070.1310.1642
KabambaST700.000.031−0.0604
KiltieLW7710.460.1310.1120
McKenzieMF200.000.0000.0200
BrophyFW200.060.0100.0011
PinnockMF130.000.0000.0120
MulumbuMF50.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Livingston

Devlin and Pittman: 3 passesAmbrose and Robinson: 3 passesAmbrose and Forrest: 3 passesGuthrie and Bartley: 3 passesHolt and Robinson: 3 passesForrest and Tiffoney: 3 passesMcCrorie and Devlin: 4 passesRobinson and Pittman: 4 passesGuthrie and Pittman: 5 passesHolt and Pittman: 5 passesHolt and Forrest: 6 passesDevlin and Holt: 7 passesAmbrose and Serrano: 7 passesSerrano and Holt: 7 passesMcCrorie and Guthrie: 8 passesDevlin and Bartley: 9 passesDevlin and Robinson: 9 passesAmbrose and Bartley: 9 passesGuthrie and Holt: 9 passesMcCrorie and Ambrose: 11 passesAmbrose and Holt: 11 passesBartley and Holt: 11 passesGuthrie and Serrano: 15 passesSerrano and Forrest: 16 passesAmbrose and Guthrie: 24 passesDevlin and Ambrose: 25 passesMcCrorie: 13 completed passesDevlin: 31 completed passesAmbrose: 51 completed passesGuthrie: 35 completed passesSerrano: 30 completed passesBartley: 19 completed passesHolt: 29 completed passesRobinson: 10 completed passesPittman: 10 completed passesForrest: 15 completed passesTiffoney: 3 completed passes122527126181781122McCrorieDevlinAmbroseGuthrieSerranoBartleyHoltRobinsonPittmanForrestTiffoneyStarters until 54' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Kilmarnock

Rossi and Burke: 4 passesBroadfoot and Power: 4 passesWaters and Power: 4 passesPower and Burke: 4 passesBurke and Kiltie: 4 passesRogers and Broadfoot: 5 passesRossi and Kiltie: 5 passesDicker and Power: 5 passesDicker and Tshibola: 5 passesDicker and Kabamba: 5 passesRossi and Power: 7 passesPower and Kiltie: 7 passesWaters and Kiltie: 8 passesDicker and Kiltie: 8 passesTshibola and Kiltie: 8 passesWaters and Tshibola: 10 passesRogers: 10 completed passesRossi: 12 completed passesDikamona: 5 completed passesBroadfoot: 12 completed passesWaters: 16 completed passesDicker: 24 completed passesPower: 18 completed passesTshibola: 17 completed passesBurke: 8 completed passesKabamba: 7 completed passesKiltie: 22 completed passes231445188627291110RogersRossiDikamonaBroadfootWatersDickerPowerTshibolaBurkeKabambaKiltieStarters until 70' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Livingston

FromToPasses
AmbroseGuthrie17
SerranoForrest15
GuthrieAmbrose15
DevlinAmbrose14
AmbroseDevlin13

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
WatersTshibola9
KiltieTshibola7
RossiPower6
BroadfootRossi6
KiltiePower5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Livingston

0−5.45−0.28−4.44−0.51−3.56−1.511+3.52−5.45−3.716+7.77+2.11−4.44−0.25+0.44−1.67+3.77+2.64+1.03−0.46+1.79+6.25+2.30−1.32+0.62−0.90−1.60−0.80−0.80−0.50−0.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 10 matches

Kilmarnock

3+0.26−0.225+11.97−1.28+2.45−1.08+0.48+2.020+12.213+4.930.010+5.28+3.94−0.44−1.15+2.30−3.34+1.32−1.03−1.70−2.60−2.01−0.71+0.73+0.30−0.80−0.10−0.82+1.70−0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 9 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Livingston

0.020.010.060.030.010.020.030.030.060.030.040.06−0.010.130.060.040.060.100.070.110.050.040.210.20LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.030.040.020.010.020.020.020.010.020.020.050.020.060.050.01−0.01−0.010.070.010.05−0.05−0.010.11LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.16AttackLivingston1.12 → 1.13Kilmarnock0.94 → 1.02Defence (lower is better)Livingston1.22 → 1.31Kilmarnock1.26 → 1.30

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Livingston
Top six56%43%−13
11th3%4%+1
Bottom1%2%+1
Kilmarnock
Top six41%56%+15
11th7%4%−3
Bottom4%2%−2

From the forecast before the match (17 October 2020): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

LivingstonKilmarnock
Expected goals1.281.04
Win41%30%
Expected Points1.531.18
Clean sheet35%28%

Livingston 41%Draw 29%Kilmarnock 30%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 47%.

Kilmarnock goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+10%5%2%7%2%8%8%4%2%3%4%2%1%1%10%12%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 17 October 2020: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowLivingston winDrawKilmarnock win
Livingston
Top six56%68%53%43%
11th3%2%4%4%
Bottom1%1%2%2%
Kilmarnock
Top six41%31%41%56%
11th7%9%7%4%
Bottom4%6%4%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Livingston

  1. W2–12 OctDundee United (A)xG 3.09–0.06
  2. W2–026 SepSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.54–1.11
  3. L2–319 SepCeltic (A)xG 1.35–1.58
  4. L1–212 SepHamilton Academical (H)xG 2.43–0.78
  5. W1–029 AugRoss County (H)xG 1.31–0.38
  6. L1–223 AugAberdeen (A)xG 1.62–2.15

Kilmarnock

  1. W1–026 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.65–0.49
  2. W2–119 SepHamilton Academical (H)xG 1.88–1.57
  3. L0–112 SepAberdeen (A)xG 0.49–1.76
  4. W4–029 AugDundee United (H)xG 1.15–1.04
  5. L0–222 AugRangers (A)xG 0.10–2.93
  6. L1–215 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.86–1.65

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

LivingstonKilmarnock
Position6th5th
Played109
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠2–⁠53–⁠2–⁠4
Points11 (1.10 per game)11 (1.22 per game)
Expected Points per game1.451.00
Goals12–⁠1512–⁠11
xG per game1.44–⁠1.250.88–⁠1.49
Home: points, xG per game1.40, 1.15–⁠1.441.75, 1.24–⁠1.25
Away: points, xG per game0.80, 1.73–⁠1.070.80, 0.60–⁠1.68
ManagerGary Holt (10)Alex Dyer (9)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.16AttackLivingston1.12, 5thKilmarnock0.94, 8thDefence (lower is better)Livingston1.22, 6thKilmarnock1.26, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctLivingston attack: 1.12Kilmarnock attack: 0.941.120.94KilmarnockLivingstonDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctLivingston defence: 1.22Kilmarnock defence: 1.261.261.22

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

LivingstonKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+6%−21%−27%+6%
Counter-attacks−100%−76%−73%−46%
Set pieces+2%+30%−41%+51%
Penalties+58%+5%−41%−41%
Headers+6%+29%−50%−18%
Left side−19%−29%−16%+18%
Centre+37%+15%−56%+15%
Right side−37%−24%−7%+25%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−19%+25%Centre+37%+15%Right side−37%+18%Open play+6%+6%Counter-attacks−100%−46%Set pieces+2%+51%Headers+6%−18%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdLivingston concededLeft side−16%−24%Centre−56%+15%Right side−7%−29%Open play−27%−21%Counter-attacks−73%−76%Set pieces−41%+30%Headers−50%+29%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

LivingstonKilmarnock

1.44xG0.88
1.25xG against1.49
49%Possession43%
11.0Shots9.7
10.9Shots against15.3
3.0Shots on target3.7
1.7Big chances1.0
21.0Touches in the opposition box9.0
349Passes346
62%Pass accuracy69%
6.0Corners5.0
53%Field tilt44%
35.0Final-third entries37.7
10.1Box entries9.9
12.4Passes per defensive action14.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.171.09
Ahead141.160.87
Behind311.951.65

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level390.931.37
Ahead220.861.97
Behind280.841.26

xG by period

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.220.092–1
16–300.250.261–5
31–450.210.232–3
46–600.210.212–4
61–750.280.233–0
76–900.280.242–2

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.221–3
16–300.200.163–2
31–450.120.192–1
46–600.170.202–1
61–750.130.272–0
76–900.180.452–4

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Livingston

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMcCrorie 9Stryjek 1Devlin 9Robinson 1Ambrose 5Fitzwater 2Guthrie 9Brown 2Taylor-Sinclair 2Serrano 5Ambrose 2McMillan 2Bartley 9Sibbald 5Holt 4Forrest 2Robinson 4Fitzwater 3Pittman 2Pittman 7Holt 1Robinson 1Forrest 6Sibbald 2Robinson 1Dykes 3Tiffoney 2Lokotsch 24-2-3-1 in 4 of 10 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (4), 3-4-2-1 (3), 5-3-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWRogers 8Eastwood 1Millen 7Rossi 1McGowan 1Broadfoot 9Findlay 9Waters 9Power 6Kabamba 3Dicker 8Kiltie 1Tshibola 9Burke 9Kabamba 5Brophy 4Kiltie 4Pinnock 2McKenzie 24-3-3 in 4 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (4), 4-4-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (2)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Key players

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Forrest8693300.260.28
Pittman10900100.250.05
Devlin9766000.100.17
Holt6550110.180.08

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Burke9746320.190.27
Kabamba8737400.220.02
Kiltie5458120.090.06
Tshibola9798100.100.04

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.