Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Kilmarnock 4–1 Motherwell

Saturday 20 March 2021, 15:00 · Rugby Park · Round 32 · Half-time 1–1

Kilmarnock Lafferty 1', McKenzie 55', Burke 57', Pinnock 83'

Motherwell Maguire 8'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockMotherwell
Goals41
xG1.861.33
Expected Points1.800.89

Kilmarnock 50%Draw 30%Motherwell 20%

Most likely score 2–1, 18%. Final score 4–1, 1%.

Motherwell goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+2%1%6%9%3%8%4%3%7%5%2%1%1%14%18%14%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTMulumbu on for Burke, 82'Whitehall on for Lafferty and Pierrick on for Pinnock, 86'Lawless on for Maguire, 63'Long on for Cole, 76'Lafferty 1'McKenzie 55'Burke 57'Pinnock 83'Maguire 8'Kilmarnock 1.86Motherwell 1.3300.511.520153045607590HTMulumbu on for Burke, 82'Whitehall on for Lafferty and Pierrick on for Pinnock, 86'Lawless on for Maguire, 63'Long on for Cole, 76'Lafferty 1'McKenzie 55'Burke 57'Pinnock 83'Maguire 8'1.861.33KilmarnockMotherwell

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockMotherwell

1.86 +0.86xG1.33 +0.22
2.17 +1.24xG on target1.30 +0.36
13 +3Shots9 −2
5 +2.0Shots on target3 −0.3
2 +1.0Big chances1 −0.3
22 +3Touches in the opposition box18 −1
51% +5Possession49% +4
370 +5Passes346 +3
59% −10Pass accuracy56% −12
46% −4Field tilt54% +18
26 −11Final-third entries34 +4
8 −2.0Box entries7 −2.6
21.9 +8Passes per defensive action10.0 −4
4 −1.1Corners6 +1.1
10 −3Tackles14 0
7 −4Interceptions12 +2
10 −7Clearances15 −9
2 −0.4Saves1 −1.9
14 +2Fouls14 +2
4 +1.9Offsides2 0.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Haunstrup 6', 0.05 xGPinnock 9', 0.05 xGLafferty 30', 0.05 xGHaunstrup 11', 0.04 xGLafferty 29', 0.03 xGPinnock 39', 0.03 xGLafferty 43', 0.03 xGLafferty 55', 0.03 xGHaunstrup 39', 0.02 xGMcKenzie 55', 0.87 xG, goalPinnock 83', 0.54 xG, goalBurke 57', 0.10 xG, goalLafferty 1', 0.03 xG, goal47%0.87 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.87 xG, 1 goal37%0.69 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.69 xG, 2 goals5%0.09 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals6%0.12 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.12 xG, 1 goal5%0.10 xGFurther out: 4 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals

Motherwell

Roberts 8', 0.54 xGCole 27', 0.36 xGLong 88', 0.08 xGMagloire 36', 0.07 xGCole 36', 0.06 xGRoberts 73', 0.06 xGCampbell 66', 0.04 xGLawless 86', 0.03 xGMaguire 8', 0.08 xG, goal67%0.89 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.89 xG, 0 goals27%0.36 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.36 xG, 1 goal3%0.04 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockMotherwell

1.63 8 shots, 3 goalsOpen play0.78 5 shots, 1 goal
0.23 5 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.55 4 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
48 min (53%) · Kilmarnock 1.17, Motherwell 0.49 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
42 min (47%) · Kilmarnock 0.69, Motherwell 0.83 xG

Line-ups

1625243296819728DoyleMcGowanBroadfootMedleyHaunstrupBurkePowerDickerPinnockMcKenzieLaffertyYellow cardGoalYellow cardGoalGoalGoalYellow card82'86'86'Kilmarnock 4-4-1-1Tommy Wright133340436815394432KellyO'DonnellMagloireLamieCarrollCampbellCrawfordMaguireRobertsColeWattGoalYellow card63'76'Motherwell 4-3-3Graham Alexander

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 82' Mulumbu for Burke
  • 86' Pierrick for Pinnock
  • 86' Whitehall for Lafferty

Motherwell substitutes

  • 63' Lawless for Maguire
  • 76' Long for Cole

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DoyleGK900.000.0100.0540
McGowan RB900.000.0410.0865
BroadfootCB900.000.0000.0333
MedleyCB900.000.0000.0435
HaunstrupLB900.120.0100.0235
BurkeRM8210.100.0710.1160
Power CM9010.000.0320.0253
DickerCM900.000.0300.0013
PinnockLM8610.610.0100.0623
McKenzieAM9010.870.010−0.0400
Lafferty ST86110.170.0620.0231
MulumbuMF80.000.0000.0001
PierrickFW40.000.0000.0001
WhitehallFW40.000.0000.0000

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KellyGK900.000.0100.0661
O'DonnellRB900.000.0310.1188
MagloireCB900.070.0000.1733
LamieCB900.000.0100.06610
CarrollLB900.000.0400.0745
CampbellCM900.040.4510.2142
CrawfordCM900.000.010−0.0118
MaguireCM6310.080.0410.0424
Roberts RW900.590.7930.2342
ColeST760.420.0100.1002
WattLW900.000.0600.0321
LawlessFW270.030.021−0.0120
LongFW140.080.000−0.0100

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Broadfoot and Dicker: 4 passesPower and McKenzie: 4 passesMcKenzie and Lafferty: 4 passesMcGowan and McKenzie: 5 passesMedley and Broadfoot: 5 passesHaunstrup and McKenzie: 5 passesMedley and Dicker: 6 passesBroadfoot and Power: 6 passesHaunstrup and Lafferty: 6 passesDicker and Power: 6 passesDicker and Pinnock: 6 passesPower and Lafferty: 6 passesMcGowan and Lafferty: 7 passesBurke and Dicker: 7 passesDoyle and Lafferty: 9 passesMcGowan and Broadfoot: 9 passesHaunstrup and Dicker: 9 passesBurke and Power: 9 passesBurke and McKenzie: 9 passesMcGowan and Burke: 10 passesMedley and Haunstrup: 11 passesHaunstrup and Pinnock: 13 passesMcGowan and Power: 16 passesDoyle: 14 completed passesMcGowan: 27 completed passesMedley: 24 completed passesBroadfoot: 16 completed passesHaunstrup: 31 completed passesBurke: 21 completed passesDicker: 28 completed passesPower: 28 completed passesPinnock: 12 completed passesMcKenzie: 12 completed passesLafferty: 10 completed passes1622453298619728DoyleMcGowanMedleyBroadfootHaunstrupBurkeDickerPowerPinnockMcKenzieLaffertyStarters until 82' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Motherwell

Kelly and O'Donnell: 3 passesKelly and Roberts: 3 passesO'Donnell and Crawford: 3 passesO'Donnell and Watt: 3 passesMagloire and Crawford: 3 passesLamie and Roberts: 3 passesCarroll and Crawford: 3 passesCarroll and Roberts: 3 passesCrawford and Cole: 3 passesLamie and Cole: 4 passesLamie and Watt: 4 passesCarroll and Maguire: 4 passesCarroll and Cole: 4 passesCampbell and Watt: 4 passesRoberts and Cole: 4 passesCole and Watt: 4 passesO'Donnell and Cole: 5 passesMaguire and Watt: 5 passesO'Donnell and Roberts: 6 passesMaguire and Roberts: 6 passesRoberts and Watt: 7 passesO'Donnell and Campbell: 8 passesKelly: 5 completed passesO'Donnell: 19 completed passesMagloire: 5 completed passesLamie: 10 completed passesCarroll: 11 completed passesCrawford: 9 completed passesMaguire: 12 completed passesCampbell: 13 completed passesRoberts: 14 completed passesCole: 13 completed passesWatt: 11 completed passes133340438156394432KellyO'DonnellMagloireLamieCarrollCrawfordMaguireCampbellRobertsColeWattStarters until 63' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
DoyleLafferty10
McGowanPower8
PowerMcGowan8
PowerLafferty8
HaunstrupPinnock8

Motherwell

FromToPasses
O'DonnellCampbell10
CampbellO'Donnell7
O'DonnellRoberts7
CarrollCrawford6
O'DonnellKelly6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

4+0.64−1.710+3.012+5.85−1.44−3.18+1.914+5.212+4.16+1.84−1.42−1.96+1.08+2.83−0.74+0.31−1.72−1.55+0.83+0.62+0.12+0.60−1.51−1.20−0.91+0.70−0.90−0.41+0.44−9.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 32 matches

Motherwell

2−2.37+0.413−3.54−4.99+2.64−2.510+2.34−2.27−0.87−0.68+2.750.02−1.74−1.43−1.78+4.63−0.40−2.60−2.96+2.68+5.910+8.15+4.21−0.31−0.93+2.21+0.50−1.01+0.60−0.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 32 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.040.010.010.030.010.030.010.040.010.020.010.030.030.010.060.04−0.020.01−0.010.02−0.04−0.060.09LessMore

Motherwell

0.010.040.020.010.010.030.010.020.010.010.070.030.030.04−0.01−0.030.01−0.020.240.160.36LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.14AttackKilmarnock0.91 → 0.96Motherwell1.04 → 1.04Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.26 → 1.27Motherwell1.36 → 1.41

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
11th38%38%0
Bottom35%22%−13
Motherwell
11th1%2%+1
Bottom<1%1%+1
Hamilton Academical
11th32%27%−5
Bottom49%58%+9
Ross County
11th29%33%+4
Bottom16%20%+4

From the forecast before the match (20 March 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockMotherwell
Expected goals1.161.16
Win35%35%
Expected Points1.361.35
Clean sheet31%31%

Kilmarnock 35%Draw 30%Motherwell 35%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 48%.

Motherwell goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+7%3%8%3%7%8%4%2%3%3%2%10%11%11%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 20 March 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawMotherwell win
Kilmarnock
11th38%38%40%36%
Bottom35%22%36%47%
Motherwell
11th1%2%1%–
Bottom<1%1%––
Hamilton Academical
11th32%27%31%37%
Bottom49%58%49%40%
Ross County
11th29%33%28%27%
Bottom16%20%15%12%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L2–36 MarRoss County (A)xG 1.67–1.21
  2. D1–127 FebDundee United (H)xG 1.25–1.02
  3. L0–120 FebAberdeen (A)xG 0.88–1.14
  4. L0–113 FebRangers (A)xG 0.08–1.47
  5. L0–110 FebMotherwell (H)xG 1.00–0.95
  6. L0–26 FebSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.49–1.56

Motherwell

  1. W3–16 MarLivingston (H)xG 1.80–1.14
  2. W2–027 FebHibernian (A)xG 1.00–1.70
  3. D0–024 FebSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.39–0.30
  4. L0–320 FebSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.03–3.04
  5. L1–413 FebHamilton Academical (H)xG 1.32–2.03
  6. W1–010 FebKilmarnock (A)xG 0.95–1.00

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockMotherwell
Position12th9th
Played3232
Won, drawn, lost7–⁠4–⁠219–⁠8–⁠15
Points25 (0.78 per game)35 (1.09 per game)
Expected Points per game1.141.10
Goals29–⁠4631–⁠47
xG per game1.00–⁠1.331.11–⁠1.59
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.19–⁠1.340.94, 1.10–⁠1.65
Away: points, xG per game0.59, 0.83–⁠1.321.25, 1.13–⁠1.54
ManagerTommy Wright (4)Graham Alexander (12)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.14AttackKilmarnock0.91, 11thMotherwell1.04, 6thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.26, 8thMotherwell1.36, 10th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarKilmarnock attack: 0.91Motherwell attack: 1.041.040.91MotherwellKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarKilmarnock defence: 1.26Motherwell defence: 1.361.361.26

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockMotherwell
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−33%+1%−15%+8%
Counter-attacks−89%−24%−72%+154%
Set pieces+4%+24%+5%+35%
Penalties+9%−9%−9%+64%
Headers−9%−3%−10%+50%
Left side−21%+15%−20%+6%
Centre−32%average−11%+30%
Right side−15%+8%−8%+22%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdMotherwell concededLeft side−21%+22%Centre−32%+30%Right side−15%+6%Open play−33%+8%Counter-attacks−89%+154%Set pieces+4%+35%Headers−9%+50%

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−20%+8%Centre−11%averageRight side−8%+15%Open play−15%+1%Counter-attacks−72%−24%Set pieces+5%+24%Headers−10%−3%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockMotherwell

1.00xG1.11
1.33xG against1.59
46%Possession45%
10.2Shots10.7
13.2Shots against13.9
3.0Shots on target3.3
1.0Big chances1.3
19.2Touches in the opposition box18.8
365Passes343
68%Pass accuracy68%
5.1Corners4.9
50%Field tilt36%
36.7Final-third entries30.0
10.0Box entries9.6
14.2Passes per defensive action14.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level420.891.16
Ahead181.061.66
Behind301.121.36

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level361.301.41
Ahead260.991.66
Behind291.001.76

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.144–4
16–300.130.215–9
31–450.190.186–5
46–600.190.205–9
61–750.220.275–8
76–900.170.334–11

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.286–9
16–300.250.188–5
31–450.150.234–6
46–600.190.264–7
61–750.250.268–7
76–900.110.381–13

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTRogers 24Doyle 7Eastwood 1Millen 14McGowan 13Rossi 4Broadfoot 25Dikamona 9Rossi 3Findlay 21Medley 5Waters 16Haunstrup 15Brophy 1Burke 22McKenzie 4Kiltie 2Power 18Dicker 17McKenzie 2Tshibola 20Mulumbu 4Pinnock 1McKenzie 11Kiltie 9Pinnock 8Kabamba 21Brophy 6Whitehall 5Kiltie 9Power 7Tshibola 44-4-2 in 11 of 32 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (11), 4-3-3 (11), 4-2-3-1 (4), 4-5-1 (2), 4-4-1-1 (2), 4-1-4-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

Motherwell

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWKelly 12Carson 12Chapman 4O'Donnell 27Grimshaw 2Johnston 1Gallagher 22Magloire 4O'Hara 4Mugabi 18Lamie 16Carroll 13Grimshaw 8McGinley 7Campbell 29Long 1Seedorf 1Crawford 15O'Hara 14Grimshaw 1Polworth 18Maguire 13Turnbull 2Long 6Seedorf 5Lang 4Watt 13Cole 10Long 6Watt 14Lang 7Cole 64-3-3 in 21 of 32 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (21), 5-3-2 (4), 3-5-2 (3), 4-4-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
10 February 2021Kilmarnock0–1MotherwellxG 1.00–0.95
30 December 2020Motherwell0–2KilmarnockxG 0.40–1.78

2 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 1, Motherwell won 1, and 0 were drawn. Goals 2–1 and xG 1.39–0.68 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Burke232,054730.240.22
Whitehall5461200.400.04
Brophy8637200.320.02
Kabamba212,026520.280.03

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Cole181,499830.510.02
Lang121,038310.360.03
Watt272,218350.240.12
Polworth181,538030.070.23

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.