Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Kilmarnock 0–1 Motherwell

Wednesday 10 February 2021, 18:00 · Rugby Park · Round 10 · Half-time 0–0

Motherwell Campbell 71'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockMotherwell
Goals01
xG1.000.95
Expected Points1.351.31

Kilmarnock 33%Draw 35%Motherwell 32%

Most likely score 1–1, 18%. Final score 0–1, 15%.

Motherwell goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+6%1%12%7%1%6%8%4%2%2%1%13%15%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTOakley on for Kiltie, 74'Pinnock on for McKenzie, 76'Mulumbu on for Power, 86'O'Hara on for Crawford, 58'Magloire on for Cole and Smith on for Long, 84'Campbell 71'Kilmarnock 1.00Motherwell 0.9500.511.50153045607590HTOakley on for Kiltie, 74'Pinnock on for McKenzie, 76'Mulumbu on for Power, 86'O'Hara on for Crawford, 58'Magloire on for Cole and Smith on for Long, 84'Campbell 71'1.000.95KilmarnockMotherwell

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockMotherwell

1.00 −0.01xG0.95 −0.17
0.38 −0.58xG on target0.76 −0.21
18 +8Shots11 0
5 +2.0Shots on target4 +0.6
0 −1.0Big chances1 −0.3
50 +33Touches in the opposition box11 −9
59% +14Possession41% −4
447 +87Passes339 −8
76% +8Pass accuracy65% −5
86% +40Field tilt14% −23
59 +23Final-third entries23 −9
31 +22.0Box entries5 −5.2
12.0 −3Passes per defensive action12.9 −2
6 +1.2Corners1 −4.0
14 +1Tackles15 +1
5 −6Interceptions13 +2
6 −11Clearances38 +15
3 +0.7Saves5 +2.2
14 +2Fouls15 +3
4 +1.9Offsides2 −0.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Kabamba 60', 0.09 xGKabamba 90+3', 0.08 xGKabamba 14', 0.07 xGBurke 33', 0.07 xGOakley 78', 0.07 xGDikamona 1', 0.06 xGBurke 28', 0.06 xGBurke 36', 0.06 xGOakley 77', 0.06 xGMcKenzie 52', 0.05 xGMcGowan 68', 0.05 xGOakley 79', 0.05 xGBurke 85', 0.05 xGHaunstrup 87', 0.05 xGBurke 89', 0.05 xGMcKenzie 19', 0.04 xGMcGowan 51', 0.04 xGMcKenzie 66', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals58%0.59 xGCentral box: 9 shots, 0.59 xG, 0 goals25%0.25 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.25 xG, 0 goals9%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals8%0.08 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals

Motherwell

Cole 55', 0.43 xGCole 35', 0.08 xGWatt 4', 0.07 xGLamie 55', 0.06 xGWatt 76', 0.06 xGLong 4', 0.04 xGCole 16', 0.04 xGCole 22', 0.04 xGLong 70', 0.03 xGMaguire 82', 0.03 xGCampbell 71', 0.08 xG, goal45%0.43 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.43 xG, 0 goals27%0.26 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.26 xG, 1 goal9%0.09 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals15%0.14 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals3%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockMotherwell

0.71 13 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.39 8 shots, 1 goal
0.29 5 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.56 3 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
71 min (76%) · Kilmarnock 0.60, Motherwell 0.86 xG
Motherwell ahead
22 min (24%) · Kilmarnock 0.40, Motherwell 0.08 xG

Line-ups

1624243296871011DoyleMcGowanDikamonaMedleyHaunstrupBurkePowerDickerMcKenzieKiltieKabamba86'76'74'Kilmarnock 4-4-213331643681594432KellyO'DonnellMugabiLamieCarrollCampbellCrawfordMaguireLongColeWattYellow cardGoalYellow card58'84'84'Motherwell 4-3-3Graham Alexander

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 74' Oakley for Kiltie
  • 76' Pinnock for McKenzie
  • 86' Mulumbu for Power

Motherwell substitutes

  • 58' O'Hara for Crawford
  • 84' Magloire for Cole
  • 84' Smith for Long

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DoyleGK900.000.0000.0340
McGowanRB900.090.1410.31143
DikamonaCB900.060.0000.0516
MedleyCB900.000.0200.0733
HaunstrupLB900.050.1110.28244
BurkeRM900.290.3530.48131
PowerCM860.000.0420.0045
DickerCM900.000.1000.0272
McKenzieLM760.110.1820.1781
KiltieST740.000.1830.1571
KabambaST900.230.031−0.0802
OakleyFW160.170.010−0.0500
PinnockMF140.000.0210.0230
MulumbuMF40.000.1910.1720

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KellyGK900.000.0000.07100
O'Donnell RB900.000.0210.07713
MugabiCB900.000.0000.04510
LamieCB900.060.0000.0319
CarrollLB900.000.0620.11612
CampbellCM9010.080.0110.0119
CrawfordCM580.000.0000.0112
MaguireCM900.030.0310.0138
LongRW840.070.011−0.0111
ColeST840.590.000−0.0204
Watt LW9010.120.1420.1443
O'HaraMF320.000.0000.0001
MagloireDF60.000.0000.0002
SmithFW60.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

McGowan and McKenzie: 5 passesDikamona and Dicker: 5 passesHaunstrup and Burke: 5 passesHaunstrup and Power: 5 passesBurke and McKenzie: 5 passesDicker and McKenzie: 5 passesMcKenzie and Kabamba: 5 passesBurke and Power: 6 passesBurke and Kiltie: 6 passesPower and Kiltie: 6 passesMcGowan and Dicker: 7 passesDikamona and Medley: 7 passesMedley and Power: 7 passesPower and McKenzie: 7 passesPower and Dicker: 10 passesMcGowan and Dikamona: 12 passesMcGowan and Burke: 12 passesMcGowan and Power: 14 passesMcGowan and Kiltie: 14 passesHaunstrup and Dicker: 14 passesMedley and Haunstrup: 16 passesHaunstrup and McKenzie: 16 passesMcKenzie and Kiltie: 16 passesHaunstrup and Kiltie: 21 passesDoyle: 6 completed passesMcGowan: 36 completed passesDikamona: 19 completed passesMedley: 21 completed passesHaunstrup: 49 completed passesBurke: 17 completed passesPower: 29 completed passesDicker: 28 completed passesMcKenzie: 30 completed passesKabamba: 6 completed passesKiltie: 32 completed passes1624243296871110DoyleMcGowanDikamonaMedleyHaunstrupBurkePowerDickerMcKenzieKabambaKiltieStarters until 74' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Motherwell

Kelly and O'Donnell: 3 passesKelly and Maguire: 3 passesKelly and Campbell: 3 passesO'Donnell and Crawford: 3 passesMugabi and Lamie: 3 passesLamie and Carroll: 3 passesLamie and Watt: 3 passesCarroll and Crawford: 3 passesCrawford and Maguire: 3 passesCrawford and Watt: 3 passesLong and Watt: 3 passesMugabi and Crawford: 4 passesLamie and Crawford: 4 passesCarroll and Cole: 4 passesCrawford and Campbell: 4 passesMaguire and Watt: 4 passesCampbell and Long: 4 passesO'Donnell and Campbell: 5 passesO'Donnell and Cole: 5 passesCarroll and Maguire: 6 passesO'Donnell and Mugabi: 7 passesCarroll and Watt: 8 passesMugabi and Campbell: 11 passesKelly and Mugabi: 14 passesKelly: 19 completed passesO'Donnell: 16 completed passesMugabi: 22 completed passesLamie: 11 completed passesCarroll: 18 completed passesCrawford: 10 completed passesMaguire: 13 completed passesCampbell: 14 completed passesLong: 6 completed passesCole: 3 completed passesWatt: 10 completed passes13331643815694432KellyO'DonnellMugabiLamieCarrollCrawfordMaguireCampbellLongColeWattStarters until 58' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
DickerHaunstrup20
HaunstrupMedley14
McGowanBurke14
HaunstrupKiltie13
DikamonaMcGowan12

Motherwell

FromToPasses
KellyMugabi12
MugabiKelly9
CarrollWatt7
CampbellMugabi7
MaguireCarroll7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

3−0.42−4.33−4.36−0.62−4.47−0.12−4.66−3.17−1.19+5.211+5.65+1.07+2.32−3.69+5.73−0.42−0.75+1.74+0.17+5.13+1.30−1.53+1.73+1.11+0.21+0.71+0.20−0.41+0.48−5.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 27 matches

Motherwell

7+2.610+3.330+14.324+15.57+0.88+1.75−3.38+1.810+2.39+1.89+4.17+1.93−0.94−1.34−0.93−0.23−0.12−0.65+2.01−2.62−0.35+3.50−0.80−1.51−1.10−0.80−0.50−1.01+0.60−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 26 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.010.030.020.020.020.030.090.020.040.020.030.090.030.020.010.120.23−0.030.020.260.14−0.05−0.140.100.48LessMore

Motherwell

0.010.010.060.010.010.010.010.020.010.010.020.010.030.040.030.010.010.010.02−0.040.01−0.010.010.060.13LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.19AttackKilmarnock0.96 → 0.95Motherwell1.07 → 1.05Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.31 → 1.30Motherwell1.38 → 1.35

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six<1%–0
11th16%22%+6
Bottom6%9%+3
Motherwell
Top six4%7%+3
11th7%3%−4
Bottom2%1%−1
Ross County
11th40%38%−2
Bottom38%38%0
St. Mirren
Top six84%82%−2

From the forecast before the match (10 February 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockMotherwell
Expected goals1.171.20
Win35%36%
Expected Points1.331.38
Clean sheet30%31%

Kilmarnock 35%Draw 29%Motherwell 36%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 49%.

Motherwell goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+7%3%8%3%1%6%8%5%2%2%3%2%10%11%10%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 10 February 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawMotherwell win
Kilmarnock
Top six<1%1%<1%–
11th16%10%15%22%
Bottom6%2%7%9%
Motherwell
Top six4%1%3%7%
11th7%12%7%3%
Bottom2%4%1%1%
Ross County
11th40%43%40%38%
Bottom38%37%38%38%
St. Mirren
Top six84%85%87%82%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–26 FebSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.49–1.56
  2. L0–42 FebCeltic (H)xG 1.87–2.13
  3. L2–330 JanSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.17–2.14
  4. L0–227 JanLivingston (A)xG 0.59–1.10
  5. L0–216 JanHibernian (A)xG 0.64–0.68
  6. W2–09 JanHamilton Academical (H)xG 1.50–0.43

Motherwell

  1. L1–26 FebCeltic (A)xG 0.42–1.57
  2. W2–13 FebDundee United (H)xG 1.90–0.97
  3. W2–127 JanRoss County (A)xG 1.56–1.86
  4. L0–223 JanAberdeen (A)xG 0.47–3.10
  5. D1–117 JanRangers (H)xG 1.20–0.98
  6. D1–19 JanSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.85–1.51

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockMotherwell
Position10th9th
Played2726
Won, drawn, lost7–⁠3–⁠176–⁠7–⁠13
Points24 (0.89 per game)25 (0.96 per game)
Expected Points per game1.131.08
Goals26–⁠3924–⁠39
xG per game1.01–⁠1.361.12–⁠1.60
Home: points, xG per game1.08, 1.20–⁠1.390.92, 1.11–⁠1.55
Away: points, xG per game0.71, 0.82–⁠1.331.00, 1.13–⁠1.66
ManagerAndy Millen (2)Graham Alexander (6)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.19AttackKilmarnock0.96, 9thMotherwell1.07, 7thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.31, 8thMotherwell1.38, 10th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebKilmarnock attack: 0.96Motherwell attack: 1.071.070.96MotherwellKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebKilmarnock defence: 1.31Motherwell defence: 1.381.381.31

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockMotherwell
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−33%+4%−11%+12%
Counter-attacks−87%−73%−67%+203%
Set pieces+5%+23%+4%+21%
Penalties+7%+7%−33%+56%
Headers−5%−3%−4%+29%
Left side−20%+20%−24%+6%
Centre−26%+3%−6%+28%
Right side−26%−3%−2%+31%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdMotherwell concededLeft side−20%+31%Centre−26%+28%Right side−26%+6%Open play−33%+12%Counter-attacks−87%+203%Set pieces+5%+21%Headers−5%+29%

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−24%−3%Centre−6%+3%Right side−2%+20%Open play−11%+4%Counter-attacks−67%−73%Set pieces+4%+23%Headers−4%−3%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockMotherwell

1.01xG1.12
1.36xG against1.60
45%Possession46%
10.1Shots10.8
13.5Shots against13.7
3.0Shots on target3.4
1.0Big chances1.3
17.3Touches in the opposition box19.8
360Passes347
68%Pass accuracy70%
4.8Corners5.0
46%Field tilt37%
36.1Final-third entries31.6
9.0Box entries10.2
15.1Passes per defensive action14.9

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level420.931.14
Ahead201.091.63
Behind281.061.48

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level341.251.66
Ahead261.051.59
Behind291.041.55

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.154–4
16–300.140.224–7
31–450.190.176–3
46–600.210.205–7
61–750.220.294–7
76–900.150.333–11

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.190.336–8
16–300.270.177–3
31–450.140.193–4
46–600.190.242–5
61–750.230.275–6
76–900.090.411–13

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWRogers 24Doyle 2Eastwood 1Millen 11McGowan 11Rossi 4Broadfoot 22Rossi 3Dicker 1Findlay 21Dikamona 6Medley 1Waters 16Haunstrup 10Tshibola 1Power 22Kabamba 6Whitehall 2Dicker 14McKenzie 3Kiltie 3Tshibola 23Mulumbu 3Pinnock 1Burke 18McKenzie 3Pinnock 2Kabamba 12Brophy 6Kiltie 3McKenzie 9Kiltie 9Pinnock 54-3-3 in 10 of 27 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (10), 4-4-2 (8), 4-2-3-1 (4), 4-4-1-1 (2), 4-1-4-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 4-5-1 (1)

Motherwell

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWCarson 12Kelly 6Chapman 4O'Donnell 22Grimshaw 2Mugabi 1Gallagher 22O'Hara 4Mugabi 16Lamie 10Grimshaw 8Carroll 7McGinley 7Campbell 24Long 1Seedorf 1O'Hara 13Crawford 10Grimshaw 1Polworth 17Maguire 7Turnbull 2Seedorf 5Long 4Lang 4Watt 12Cole 6Long 5Watt 9Lang 7Cole 54-3-3 in 15 of 26 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (15), 5-3-2 (4), 3-5-2 (3), 4-4-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
30 December 2020Motherwell0–2KilmarnockxG 0.40–1.78

1 league meeting since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 1, Motherwell won 0, and 0 were drawn. Goals 2–0 and xG 1.78–0.40 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Burke211,838730.240.22
Brophy8637200.320.02
Kabamba181,699520.280.02
Pinnock8828030.070.23

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Cole12965520.530.02
Lang121,038310.360.03
Watt211,765330.260.12
Polworth171,448030.070.24

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.