Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Hearts 0–2 St. Mirren

Saturday 8 April 2023, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 31 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Matthew McDermid · Attendance 18,660

Hearts Snodgrass sent off 62'

St. Mirren Main 52', Gogic 57'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsSt. Mirren
Goals02
xG0.941.25
Expected Points1.101.59

Hearts 26%Draw 31%St. Mirren 43%

Most likely score 1–1, 16%. Final score 0–2, 9%.

St. Mirren goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+11%9%3%10%9%3%5%7%5%2%1%2%1%14%16%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTSnodgrass (Hearts), second yellow card 62'Cochrane on for Smith and Humphrys on for Halliday, 59'McKay on for Forrest and Haring on for Devlin, 76'Tanser on for Small, 46'Gallagher on for Dunne, 75'Greive on for Watt, 76'Kiltie on for Baccus, 90'Flynn on for Gogic, 90+5'Main 52'Gogic 57'St. Mirren 1.25Hearts 0.9400.511.50153045607590HTSnodgrass (Hearts), second yellow card 62'Cochrane on for Smith and Humphrys on for Halliday, 59'McKay on for Forrest and Haring on for Devlin, 76'Tanser on for Small, 46'Gallagher on for Dunne, 75'Greive on for Watt, 76'Kiltie on for Baccus, 90'Flynn on for Gogic, 90+5'Main 52'Gogic 57'1.250.94HeartsSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsSt. Mirren

0.94 −0.56xG1.25 +0.06
0.06 −1.22xG on target0.69 −0.37
16 +4Shots15 +3
2 −2.1Shots on target3 −0.3
0 −2.1Big chances0 −1.7
24 +2Touches in the opposition box20 0
65% +10Possession35% −4
488 +45Passes248 −32
77% +1Pass accuracy59% −3
57% +9Field tilt43% +3
31 −3Final-third entries29 −3
13 +1.7Box entries8 −1.5
9.4 −5Passes per defensive action18.1 +2
6 +0.8Corners8 +2.6
17 +1Tackles20 +5
4 −4.1Interceptions9 +0.1
29 +11Clearances19 −4
1 −2.3Saves2 −0.2
11 +1Fouls15 +2
0 −1.2Offsides0 −1.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Forrest 74', 0.14 xGShankland 19', 0.11 xGRowles 38', 0.09 xGSmith 46', 0.09 xGHalliday 42', 0.08 xGHill 39', 0.07 xGHalliday 44', 0.07 xGShankland 17', 0.05 xGCochrane 60', 0.05 xGShankland 54', 0.04 xGKingsley 69', 0.04 xGShankland 19', 0.02 xGKingsley 40', 0.02 xGKingsley 42', 0.02 xGHumphrys 67', 0.02 xGHaring 90+1', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals65%0.61 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.61 xG, 0 goals22%0.21 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.21 xG, 0 goals7%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals5%0.05 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

O'Hara 57', 0.19 xGGogic 24', 0.15 xGShaughnessy 9', 0.14 xGGogic 51', 0.13 xGBaccus 49', 0.09 xGMain 64', 0.09 xGGogic 56', 0.07 xGGogic 83', 0.06 xGSmall 5', 0.03 xGWatt 51', 0.03 xGWatt 23', 0.02 xGGogic 26', 0.02 xGStrain 87', 0.02 xGGogic 57', 0.19 xG, goalMain 52', 0.03 xG, goal12%0.15 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.15 xG, 0 goals78%0.98 xGCentral box: 9 shots, 0.98 xG, 1 goal4%0.05 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals5%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 1 goal2%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsSt. Mirren

0.61 11 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.31 7 shots, 1 goal
0.33 5 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.94 8 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
52 min (55%) · Hearts 0.62, St. Mirren 0.63 xG
St. Mirren ahead
43 min (45%) · Hearts 0.33, St. Mirren 0.62 xG

Line-ups

132721531416177779StewartSmithHillRowlesKingsleyDevlinHallidayForrestSnodgrassGrantShanklandYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardSent off, second yellow59'76'59'76'Hearts 4-2-3-1Robbie Neilson122418231713616910CarsonFraserShaughnessyDunneStrainBaccusGogicO'HaraSmallWattMainYellow cardGoalYellow cardGoal75'90'90+5'46'76'St. Mirren 3-5-2Stephen Robinson

Hearts substitutes

  • 59' Cochrane for Smith
  • 59' Humphrys for Halliday
  • 76' Haring for Devlin
  • 76' McKay for Forrest

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 46' Tanser for Small · yellow card 67'
  • 75' Gallagher for Dunne
  • 76' Greive for Watt
  • 90' Kiltie for Baccus
  • 90+5' Flynn for Gogic

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
StewartGK900.000.0000.0113
Smith RB590.090.0300.0891
HillCB900.070.0000.17411
Rowles CB900.090.0000.17212
KingsleyLB900.070.1220.27106
DevlinDM760.000.0100.0125
HallidayDM590.150.0000.0002
ForrestRW760.140.0410.0141
Snodgrass AM620.000.2020.1921
GrantLW900.000.062−0.0111
ShanklandST900.220.0820.1013
CochraneDF310.050.0110.0212
HumphrysFW310.020.0000.0312
HaringMF140.020.0000.0001
McKayFW140.000.0000.0341

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
CarsonGK900.000.0100.0442
FraserCB900.000.0200.0747
ShaughnessyCB900.140.1310.0838
Dunne CB750.000.0000.0005
StrainRWB900.020.0410.0584
BaccusCM900.090.0210.0377
Gogic CM9010.620.0510.3137
O'HaraCM9010.190.012−0.0115
SmallLWB460.030.2030.0221
WattST760.050.0000.0233
MainST9010.120.0820.0733
Tanser MF440.000.2410.2251
GallagherDF150.000.0000.0011
GreiveFW140.000.0000.0320
KiltieMF00.000.0000.0011
FlynnMF00.000.000––0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Smith and Grant: 5 passesRowles and Devlin: 5 passesRowles and Halliday: 5 passesHill and Halliday: 5 passesDevlin and Snodgrass: 5 passesDevlin and Grant: 5 passesForrest and Shankland: 5 passesStewart and Smith: 6 passesHill and Kingsley: 6 passesDevlin and Halliday: 6 passesStewart and Kingsley: 7 passesHill and Devlin: 7 passesSnodgrass and Grant: 7 passesStewart and Hill: 8 passesKingsley and Devlin: 8 passesKingsley and Halliday: 8 passesSmith and Shankland: 9 passesSmith and Devlin: 11 passesRowles and Hill: 14 passesKingsley and Grant: 15 passesSmith and Forrest: 16 passesRowles and Kingsley: 20 passesSmith and Hill: 22 passesStewart: 17 completed passesSmith: 43 completed passesRowles: 30 completed passesHill: 33 completed passesKingsley: 40 completed passesDevlin: 29 completed passesHalliday: 15 completed passesForrest: 16 completed passesSnodgrass: 15 completed passesGrant: 20 completed passesShankland: 13 completed passes132157231416177779StewartSmithRowlesHillKingsleyDevlinHallidayForrestSnodgrassGrantShanklandStarters until 59' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

St. Mirren

Fraser and Baccus: 3 passesSmall and Gogic: 3 passesBaccus and Main: 3 passesGogic and O'Hara: 3 passesMain and Watt: 3 passesStrain and Baccus: 4 passesStrain and Main: 4 passesSmall and O'Hara: 8 passesCarson: 5 completed passesShaughnessy: 7 completed passesDunne: 2 completed passesFraser: 8 completed passesStrain: 10 completed passesSmall: 6 completed passesBaccus: 5 completed passesGogic: 6 completed passesO'Hara: 7 completed passesMain: 7 completed passesWatt: 2 completed passes141822231617136109CarsonShaughnessyDunneFraserStrainSmallBaccusGogicO'HaraMainWattStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
KingsleyRowles19
RowlesKingsley18
RowlesHill15
KingsleyGrant12
SmithForrest12

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
BaccusStrain9
FraserMain5
O'HaraSmall5
StrainBaccus5
FraserBaccus4

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

6+1.26−0.78−4.717+9.91−3.27−0.611+4.38+2.17−1.81−6.41−4.67+2.23−0.32−2.73−2.91−2.84+0.92−0.67+4.16+2.30−3.03+0.90−0.73+1.82+0.10−0.60−0.30−0.50−0.30−0.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 30 matches

St. Mirren

1−4.06−1.515+1.47−0.73−1.29−0.311+4.04−0.91−5.75−2.114+7.76+1.03−0.37+2.66−0.54−0.43−0.84+1.76+2.67+3.31−1.83+1.31+0.10−1.91−1.10−1.10−0.71+0.20−0.52+1.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 30 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.010.010.020.030.030.08−0.010.020.060.030.010.080.030.07−0.010.050.090.010.110.060.100.18LessMore

St. Mirren

0.010.010.040.010.020.010.010.010.010.010.050.040.010.010.040.030.07−0.01−0.010.070.150.11−0.010.24LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.26AttackHearts1.25 → 1.23St. Mirren1.10 → 1.12Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.33 → 1.34St. Mirren1.24 → 1.22

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Top six>99%99%−1
St. Mirren
Top six78%96%+18
Livingston
Top six38%27%−11
Hibernian
Top six84%79%−5

From the forecast before the match (8 April 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.481.05
Win46%26%
Expected Points1.671.06
Clean sheet35%23%

Hearts 46%Draw 27%St. Mirren 26%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 51%.

St. Mirren goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+9%8%4%2%7%2%9%9%5%2%4%5%2%2%2%11%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 8 April 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawSt. Mirren win
Hearts
Top six>99%>99%>99%99%
St. Mirren
Top six78%65%82%96%
Livingston
Top six38%47%35%27%
Hibernian
Top six84%88%83%79%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. L1–21 AprKilmarnock (A)xG 0.68–2.72
  2. L0–318 MarAberdeen (A)xG 0.52–2.03
  3. L1–38 MarCeltic (A)xG 0.62–2.08
  4. W3–04 MarSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.63–1.19
  5. L0–219 FebMotherwell (A)xG 0.94–1.33
  6. W3–14 FebDundee United (H)xG 1.01–1.22

St. Mirren

  1. W3–01 AprLivingston (H)xG 3.07–1.20
  2. D1–118 MarDundee United (A)xG 1.75–1.12
  3. L1–55 MarCeltic (H)xG 0.79–2.48
  4. D1–125 FebSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.59–0.39
  5. W1–018 FebRoss County (H)xG 2.34–0.63
  6. L1–215 FebMotherwell (A)xG 0.46–0.48

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsSt. Mirren
Position3rd5th
Played3030
Won, drawn, lost13–⁠6–⁠1111–⁠8–⁠11
Points45 (1.50 per game)41 (1.37 per game)
Expected Points per game1.291.27
Goals50–⁠4534–⁠42
xG per game1.50–⁠1.661.19–⁠1.30
Home: points, xG per game2.21, 2.00–⁠1.601.94, 1.29–⁠1.07
Away: points, xG per game0.88, 1.06–⁠1.700.71, 1.07–⁠1.55
ManagerRobbie Neilson (68)Stephen Robinson (23)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.26AttackHearts1.25, 3rdSt. Mirren1.10, 6thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.33, 6thSt. Mirren1.24, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprHearts attack: 1.25St. Mirren attack: 1.101.251.10St. MirrenHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprHearts defence: 1.33St. Mirren defence: 1.241.331.24

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+13%+33%−21%−10%
Counter-attacks+39%−58%−22%−13%
Set pieces−8%+29%−2%−16%
Penalties+51%+1%+34%+68%
Headers−18%+39%+13%−7%
Left side−13%+20%−14%average
Centre+13%+35%−16%−17%
Right side+22%+27%−18%−15%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−13%−15%Centre+13%−17%Right side+22%averageOpen play+13%−10%Counter-attacks+39%−13%Set pieces−8%−16%Headers−18%−7%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdHearts concededLeft side−14%+27%Centre−16%+35%Right side−18%+20%Open play−21%+33%Counter-attacks−22%−58%Set pieces−2%+29%Headers+13%+39%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsSt. Mirren

1.50xG1.19
1.66xG against1.30
55%Possession39%
11.6Shots12.1
14.4Shots against11.7
4.1Shots on target3.3
2.1Big chances1.7
21.6Touches in the opposition box20.2
443Passes280
76%Pass accuracy62%
5.2Corners5.4
48%Field tilt40%
34.1Final-third entries32.0
11.3Box entries9.5
14.4Passes per defensive action16.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level311.861.40
Ahead301.472.02
Behind291.151.57

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.151.21
Ahead241.411.23
Behind241.031.51

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.240.177–9
16–300.180.219–7
31–450.310.328–3
46–600.200.296–10
61–750.210.298–6
76–900.360.3812–10

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.156–6
16–300.160.173–5
31–450.230.257–6
46–600.190.207–7
61–750.200.213–9
76–900.270.328–9

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWGordon 16Clark 13Stewart 1Kingsley 11Smith 10Hill 7Sibbick 21Halkett 5Neilson 4Rowles 19Cochrane 10Smith 10Forrest 4Atkinson 4Devlin 15Kiomourtzoglou 7Grant 4Snodgrass 15Halliday 6Smith 1Cochrane 12Halliday 8Snodgrass 5Ginnelly 10Forrest 5McKay 4Shankland 17Ginnelly 7Humphrys 3McKay 18Forrest 3Mackay-Steven 33-4-3 in 8 of 30 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (8), 4-2-3-1 (7), 3-4-2-1 (6), 4-1-4-1 (4), 3-5-2 (2), 4-3-3 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

St. Mirren

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTCarson 30Strain 27Fraser 2Flynn 1Fraser 23Gallagher 19Gogic 11Shaughne… 7ShaughnessyDunne 27R. Taylor 3Tanser 15Tait 7O'Hara 5Baccus 25Kiltie 12Tanser 3Erhahon 20Flynn 2O'Hara 21Gogic 5Ayunga 16Greive 10Watt 4Main 28Brophy 15-3-2 in 24 of 30 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (24), 3-5-2 (6)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
13 January 2023Hearts1–0St. MirrenxG 1.68–1.41
7 January 2023St. Mirren1–1HeartsxG 0.66–0.99
26 February 2022St. Mirren0–2HeartsxG 0.11–3.13
27 November 2021Hearts2–0St. MirrenxG 2.16–1.16
7 August 2021St. Mirren1–2HeartsxG 0.73–0.47

5 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 4, St. Mirren won 0, and 1 was a draw. Goals 8–2 and xG 1.69–0.81 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland252,3321840.720.09
Humphrys7698300.430.05
Grant8936220.250.16
Ginnelly201,628820.240.17

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Ayunga161,288320.420.04
O'Hara262,181800.300.08
Greive10895300.350.02
Main282,373610.230.08

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.