Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

St. Mirren 0–1 Kilmarnock

Saturday 26 September 2020, 15:00 · Simple Digital Arena · Round 9 · Half-time 0–1

Kilmarnock Kabamba 28'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenKilmarnock
Goals01
xG0.490.65
Expected Points1.081.46

St. Mirren 21%Draw 46%Kilmarnock 33%

Most likely score 0–0, 30%. Final score 0–1, 24%.

Kilmarnock goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+5%15%16%3%3%3%30%24%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.750153045607590HTObika on for McGrath and Sheron on for Foley, 46'Connolly on for Durmus, 60'McAllister on for Erhahon, 82'McKenzie on for Burke, 72'Rossi on for Millen, 90'Kabamba 28'Kilmarnock 0.65St. Mirren 0.4900.250.50.750153045607590HTObika on for McGrath and Sheron on for Foley, 46'Connolly on for Durmus, 60'McAllister on for Erhahon, 82'McKenzie on for Burke, 72'Rossi on for Millen, 90'Kabamba 28'0.650.49St. MirrenKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenKilmarnock

0.49 −0.58xG0.65 −0.26
0.00 −0.87xG on target1.17 +0.05
6 −4Shots5 −5
0 −3.5Shots on target3 −0.8
0 −1.1Big chances1 0.0
15Touches in the opposition box9
44% +4Possession56% +15
339 +29Passes433 +98
68% +6Pass accuracy75% +7
27% −10Field tilt73% +33
34 +5Final-third entries45 +8
9 +2.6Box entries5 −5.5
10.8 −5Passes per defensive action17.1 +3
5 +1.0Corners6 +1.1
14 +1Tackles8 −6
9 −2Interceptions8 −3
18 −6Clearances17 −1
2 −2.9Saves0 −2.6
16 +4Fouls12 0
1 −0.5Offsides2 −0.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Shaughnessy 38', 0.22 xGDurmus 10', 0.07 xGObika 59', 0.06 xGObika 78', 0.05 xGErwin 23', 0.04 xGMorias 51', 0.04 xG46%0.22 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.22 xG, 0 goals31%0.15 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals23%0.11 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Broadfoot 50', 0.08 xGKiltie 49', 0.07 xGBurke 44', 0.06 xGBroadfoot 81', 0.03 xGKabamba 28', 0.41 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals86%0.56 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.56 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals9%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.06 xG, 0 goals5%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenKilmarnock

0.10 2 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.50 3 shots, 1 goal
0.07 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.31 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.14 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
28 min (31%) · St. Mirren 0.11, Kilmarnock 0.41 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
62 min (69%) · St. Mirren 0.37, Kilmarnock 0.24 xG

Line-ups

1145422251117161923AlnwickMacPhersonMcCarthyShaughnessyFraserErhahonDurmusMcGrathFoleyMoriasErwinYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardYellow card82'60'46'46'St. Mirren 4-1-4-1Jim Goodwin2322517186829271011RogersMillenBroadfootFindlayWatersPowerDickerBurkeTshibolaKiltieKabambaGoal90'72'Kilmarnock 4-2-3-1Alex Dyer

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 46' Sheron for Foley · yellow card 84'
  • 46' Obika for McGrath
  • 60' Connolly for Durmus
  • 82' McAllister for Erhahon

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 72' McKenzie for Burke
  • 90' Rossi for Millen

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
AlnwickGK900.000.0000.0230
MacPhersonRB900.000.0510.0865
McCarthy CB900.000.0000.0658
ShaughnessyCB900.220.0100.0748
Fraser LB900.000.0310.0826
ErhahonDM820.000.0200.0004
DurmusRM600.070.0310.0322
McGrathCM460.000.000−0.0202
Foley CM460.000.0100.0113
Morias LM900.040.0520.1041
ErwinST900.040.0200.0301
Sheron MF440.000.0000.0012
ObikaFW440.110.010−0.0300
ConnollyMF300.000.0100.0020
McAllisterFW80.000.0000.0010

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RogersGK900.000.0000.0551
MillenRB900.000.0610.0741
BroadfootCB900.110.0300.1495
FindlayCB900.000.0200.0555
WatersLB900.000.0100.0147
PowerDM900.000.0810.0872
DickerDM900.000.0100.0546
BurkeRW7210.060.1310.1621
TshibolaAM900.000.0300.0223
KiltieLW900.070.030−0.0523
KabambaST9010.410.030−0.0110
McKenzieMF180.000.0100.0110
RossiDF00.000.000––0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

Alnwick and Shaughnessy: 3 passesShaughnessy and McGrath: 3 passesErhahon and Foley: 3 passesDurmus and McGrath: 3 passesFoley and McGrath: 3 passesAlnwick and Fraser: 4 passesMacPherson and Foley: 4 passesMcCarthy and McGrath: 4 passesErhahon and McGrath: 4 passesAlnwick and McCarthy: 5 passesShaughnessy and Erhahon: 5 passesFraser and Durmus: 5 passesFraser and Morias: 5 passesFoley and Erwin: 5 passesMcCarthy and Erhahon: 6 passesShaughnessy and McCarthy: 7 passesFraser and Erhahon: 7 passesShaughnessy and Fraser: 9 passesMacPherson and McCarthy: 10 passesAlnwick: 8 completed passesMacPherson: 10 completed passesShaughnessy: 16 completed passesMcCarthy: 20 completed passesFraser: 21 completed passesErhahon: 15 completed passesDurmus: 9 completed passesFoley: 11 completed passesMcGrath: 11 completed passesMorias: 3 completed passesErwin: 3 completed passes1144522251116171923AlnwickMacPhersonShaughnessyMcCarthyFraserErhahonDurmusFoleyMcGrathMoriasErwinStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Kilmarnock

Rogers and Findlay: 5 passesPower and Kiltie: 5 passesBurke and Kabamba: 5 passesRogers and Broadfoot: 6 passesFindlay and Tshibola: 6 passesDicker and Burke: 6 passesPower and Dicker: 7 passesMillen and Broadfoot: 8 passesBroadfoot and Dicker: 8 passesWaters and Dicker: 8 passesWaters and Tshibola: 8 passesDicker and Kiltie: 9 passesFindlay and Broadfoot: 10 passesBroadfoot and Power: 11 passesFindlay and Waters: 12 passesPower and Tshibola: 12 passesDicker and Tshibola: 12 passesMillen and Burke: 13 passesFindlay and Dicker: 13 passesWaters and Kiltie: 13 passesTshibola and Kiltie: 13 passesMillen and Power: 15 passesPower and Burke: 16 passesRogers: 14 completed passesMillen: 25 completed passesFindlay: 29 completed passesBroadfoot: 28 completed passesWaters: 26 completed passesPower: 44 completed passesDicker: 35 completed passesBurke: 25 completed passesTshibola: 32 completed passesKiltie: 24 completed passesKabamba: 8 completed passes2322175186829271011RogersMillenFindlayBroadfootWatersPowerDickerBurkeTshibolaKiltieKabambaStarters until 72' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
McCarthyMacPherson11
ShaughnessyMcCarthy10
FraserShaughnessy8
ErhahonMcCarthy8
FraserErhahon7

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
PowerBroadfoot9
PowerTshibola9
WatersTshibola9
TshibolaPower9
TshibolaDicker8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

2−3.612−3.45−2.88+2.29+2.57−0.49+1.96−1.43−1.87+1.56+1.64−0.43−1.56+2.25+1.92−1.56+3.03+0.83+2.02+0.83+1.12−0.40−0.400.00−0.51+0.90−1.03−5.24−4.43−4.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 8 matches

Kilmarnock

1−2.05−1.49−4.65−3.65−0.67+1.16−1.83−3.48+0.214+6.62−1.14−0.94−0.14−0.56+1.01−1.91−2.62−0.84+1.13−1.92−0.620.03+1.50−0.42−0.82+1.40−0.10−0.90−0.40−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 8 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.010.010.020.010.020.060.020.020.040.020.01−0.020.020.01−0.040.010.05−0.010.020.060.09LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.040.010.030.020.010.020.010.010.010.040.030.010.050.040.030.020.04−0.010.09−0.03−0.01−0.03−0.02−0.010.17LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.10AttackSt. Mirren0.84 → 0.79Kilmarnock0.93 → 0.89Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.38 → 1.32Kilmarnock1.25 → 1.19

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six12%7%−5
11th20%23%+3
Bottom21%28%+7
Kilmarnock
Top six33%43%+10
11th11%7%−4
Bottom7%3%−4
Hamilton Academical
Top six5%5%0
11th20%21%+1
Bottom42%40%−2
Rangers
Title48%50%+2

From the forecast before the match (26 September 2020): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenKilmarnock
Expected goals1.021.19
Win31%39%
Expected Points1.221.47
Clean sheet30%36%

St. Mirren 31%Draw 30%Kilmarnock 39%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 45%.

Kilmarnock goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+8%3%8%3%6%7%4%2%2%2%1%12%12%11%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 26 September 2020: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawKilmarnock win
St. Mirren
Top six12%19%11%7%
11th20%16%21%23%
Bottom21%12%20%28%
Kilmarnock
Top six33%22%30%43%
11th11%16%10%7%
Bottom7%11%8%3%
Hamilton Academical
Top six5%6%5%5%
11th20%19%19%21%
Bottom42%44%44%40%
Rangers
Title48%47%46%50%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. L1–219 SepDundee United (A)xG 1.16–1.82
  2. L1–216 SepCeltic (H)xG 1.12–2.18
  3. L0–312 SepHibernian (H)xG 1.24–1.09
  4. L0–129 AugSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.29–2.84
  5. D1–122 AugRoss County (H)xG 1.31–2.21
  6. W1–015 AugHamilton Academical (A)xG 1.97–0.83

Kilmarnock

  1. W2–119 SepHamilton Academical (H)xG 1.88–1.57
  2. L0–112 SepAberdeen (A)xG 0.49–1.76
  3. W4–029 AugDundee United (H)xG 1.15–1.04
  4. L0–222 AugRangers (A)xG 0.10–2.93
  5. L1–215 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.86–1.65
  6. D2–212 AugRoss County (A)xG 1.06–2.02

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenKilmarnock
Position10th7th
Played88
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠1–⁠52–⁠2–⁠4
Points7 (0.88 per game)8 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.000.94
Goals5–⁠1211–⁠11
xG per game1.07–⁠1.770.91–⁠1.61
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.18–⁠1.511.75, 1.24–⁠1.25
Away: points, xG per game0.75, 0.96–⁠2.040.25, 0.59–⁠1.97
ManagerJim Goodwin (8)Alex Dyer (8)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.10AttackSt. Mirren0.84, 10thKilmarnock0.93, 7thDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.38, 11thKilmarnock1.25, 9th

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.0SepSt. Mirren attack: 0.84Kilmarnock attack: 0.930.930.84KilmarnockSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.0SepSt. Mirren defence: 1.38Kilmarnock defence: 1.251.381.25

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−32%+54%−29%+13%
Counter-attacks+31%−100%−72%−72%
Set pieces+35%+14%−37%+64%
Penalties−100%−23%−23%−23%
Headers−37%+76%−46%−10%
Left side−37%+13%−16%+38%
Centre+18%+11%−54%+20%
Right side−37%+110%−9%+21%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−37%+21%Centre+18%+20%Right side−37%+38%Open play−32%+13%Counter-attacks+31%−72%Set pieces+35%+64%Headers−37%−10%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−16%+110%Centre−54%+11%Right side−9%+13%Open play−29%+54%Counter-attacks−72%−100%Set pieces−37%+14%Headers−46%+76%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenKilmarnock

1.07xG0.91
1.77xG against1.61
40%Possession41%
10.5Shots10.2
17.5Shots against16.5
3.5Shots on target3.8
1.1Big chances1.0
310Passes335
62%Pass accuracy68%
4.0Corners4.9
36%Field tilt40%
29.1Final-third entries36.8
6.4Box entries10.5
15.6Passes per defensive action14.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level301.291.88
Ahead261.041.44
Behind340.901.92

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level410.901.46
Ahead171.082.62
Behind320.841.26

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.190.222–1
16–300.290.212–3
31–450.220.330–2
46–600.120.470–2
61–750.040.371–4
76–900.220.170–0

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.241–3
16–300.180.182–2
31–450.130.182–1
46–600.170.212–1
61–750.150.302–0
76–900.200.502–4

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKRBCBCBLBDMRMCMCMLMSTAlnwick 5Zlamal 3Fraser 8McCarthy 7Foley 2Shaughnessy 6Tait 1Tait 7Obika 1Sheron 3Erhahon 2Foley 1McAllister 5McGrath 1Morias 1McGrath 6Sheron 2Foley 5MacPherson 2Erhahon 1Durmus 4Obika 3Connolly 1Morias 3Obika 2Erwin 24-1-4-1 in 2 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-1-4-1 (2), 4-3-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (2), 4-4-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWRogers 7Eastwood 1Millen 6Rossi 1McGowan 1Broadfoot 8Findlay 8Waters 8Power 5Kabamba 3Dicker 7Kiltie 1Tshibola 8Burke 8Kabamba 4Brophy 4Kiltie 3Pinnock 2McKenzie 24-3-3 in 4 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (4), 4-4-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Obika7603200.270.10
Tait8690110.080.15
McGrath8678010.060.11
Shaughnessy6512010.050.04

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Burke8674310.210.28
Kabamba7647300.200.01
Tshibola8708100.110.04
Millen6513010.010.12

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.