Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Hibernian 1–4 Rangers

Wednesday 8 March 2023, 19:45 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 27 · Half-time 1–2 · Referee Don Robertson · Attendance 19,341

Hibernian Goldson 8' (og)

Rangers Tavernier 12' (pen), Colak 34', 58', Sakala 52'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianRangers
Goals14
xG0.484.02
Non-penalty xG0.483.23
Expected Points0.052.92

Hibernian 1%Draw 3%Rangers 96%

Most likely score 0–4, 13%. Final score 1–4, 8%.

Rangers goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+3%8%2%5%8%8%7%7%1%1%1%1%12%13%10%11%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

02460153045607590HTNisbet on for Hoppe and Kukharevych on for Youan, 59'Cabraja on for Stevenson, 70'McKirdy on for Henderson, 84'Wright on for Kent and Hagi on for Sakala, 77'Arfield on for Raskin, Morelos on for Colak, and Lundstram on for Cantwell, 78'Goldson 8' (og)Tavernier 12' (pen)Colak 34'Sakala 52'Colak 58'Rangers 4.02Hibernian 0.4802460153045607590HTNisbet on for Hoppe and Kukharevych on for Youan, 59'Cabraja on for Stevenson, 70'McKirdy on for Henderson, 84'Wright on for Kent and Hagi on for Sakala, 77'Arfield on for Raskin, Morelos on for Colak, and Lundstram on for Cantwell, 78'Goldson 8' (og)Tavernier 12' (pen)Colak 34'Sakala 52'Colak 58'4.020.48HibernianRangers

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianRangers

0.48 −0.85xG4.02 +1.88
0.48Non-penalty xG3.23
0.36 −0.84xG on target4.05 +1.83
4 −12Shots31 +12
1 −4.2Shots on target10 +2.9
1 −0.5Big chances5 +1.7
9 −14Touches in the opposition box60 +21
37% −20Possession63% −4
343 −72Passes579 −12
74% −2Pass accuracy87% +2
15% −46Field tilt85% +4
24 −22Final-third entries72 +4
4 −9Box entries32 +10
12.7 +1.5Passes per defensive action13.1 +3.5
3 −2.9Corners7 −0.4
12 −4Tackles17 +2
16 +7.8Interceptions12 +5.0
33 +14Clearances13 +2
6 +4.2Saves1 −0.3
15 +2Fouls5 −6
0 −1.9Offsides3 +0.7

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Youan 37', 0.30 xGHoppe 3', 0.13 xGNisbet 72', 0.03 xGJeggo 41', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals88%0.43 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.43 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals12%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Rangers

Colak 61', 0.32 xGKent 13', 0.25 xGColak 36', 0.24 xGColak 39', 0.19 xGSakala 27', 0.16 xGColak 51', 0.15 xGDavies 6', 0.14 xGMorelos 80', 0.14 xGColak 21', 0.12 xGKent 20', 0.09 xGBarisic 33', 0.09 xGBarisic 57', 0.09 xGKent 17', 0.08 xGSakala 19', 0.08 xGSakala 67', 0.08 xGMorelos 84', 0.08 xGSakala 42', 0.07 xGSakala 69', 0.05 xGBarisic 40', 0.04 xGWright 90', 0.04 xGKent 43', 0.03 xGTavernier 45+1', 0.03 xGSakala 62', 0.03 xGTavernier 86', 0.03 xGBarisic 34', 0.02 xGGoldson 38', 0.02 xGHagi 83', 0.02 xGColak 34', 0.29 xG, goalSakala 52', 0.16 xG, goalColak 58', 0.10 xG, goal9%0.29 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.29 xG, 1 goal63%2.05 xGCentral box: 15 shots, 2.05 xG, 2 goals17%0.56 xGWide in the box: 8 shots, 0.56 xG, 0 goals10%0.31 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.31 xG, 0 goals1%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianRangers

0.48 4 shots, 0 goalsOpen play2.73 23 shots, 3 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.27 2 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.23 5 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
30 min (33%) · Hibernian 0.13, Rangers 1.32 xG
Hibernian ahead
4 min (4%) · Hibernian 0.00, Rangers 0.79 xG
Rangers ahead
57 min (63%) · Hibernian 0.35, Rangers 1.91 xG

Line-ups

11225416261418322313MarshallCaddenFishHanlonStevensonEgan-RileyJeggoHendersonCampbellYouanHoppeYellow cardYellow card70'84'59'59'Hibernian 4-2-3-1Lee Johnson12626311384314930McGregorTavernierGoldsonDaviesBarisicCantwellJackRaskinKentColakSakalaGoalOwn goalGoalGoalGoal78'78'77'78'77'Rangers 4-3-1-2Michael Beale

Hibernian substitutes

  • 59' Nisbet for Hoppe
  • 59' Kukharevych for Youan
  • 70' Cabraja for Stevenson
  • 84' McKirdy for Henderson

Rangers substitutes

  • 77' Hagi for Sakala
  • 77' Wright for Kent
  • 78' Lundstram for Cantwell
  • 78' Arfield for Raskin
  • 78' Morelos for Colak

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarshallGK900.000.0000.0451
CaddenRB900.000.0000.0226
FishCB900.000.0000.03321
Hanlon CB900.000.0000.04511
Stevenson LB700.000.0100.0635
Egan-RileyDM900.000.0100.03311
JeggoDM900.020.0910.0615
HendersonRW840.000.0400.0011
CampbellAM900.000.0100.0626
YouanLW590.300.1200.1052
HoppeST590.130.0000.0013
NisbetFW310.030.0000.0310
KukharevychFW310.000.0010.0001
CabrajaDF200.000.0000.0121
McKirdyFW60.000.0000.0100

Rangers

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McGregorGK900.000.0000.0000
TavernierRB9010.850.3330.55146
GoldsonCB900.020.0610.1486
DaviesCB900.140.2010.0645
BarisicLB900.240.3030.21106
CantwellCM780.000.1010.1054
JackCM9010.000.0720.0869
RaskinCM780.000.0200.0873
KentAM770.450.4050.4062
ColakST7821.420.3610.0421
SakalaST77120.631.0770.33100
HagiFW130.020.0100.0110
WrightFW130.040.0310.0120
LundstramMF120.000.0310.0300
ArfieldMF120.000.0510.0311
MorelosFW120.220.0000.0600

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Fish and Hanlon: 4 passesHanlon and Egan-Riley: 4 passesHenderson and Campbell: 4 passesYouan and Hoppe: 4 passesCadden and Henderson: 5 passesHanlon and Stevenson: 5 passesStevenson and Egan-Riley: 5 passesCampbell and Hoppe: 5 passesMarshall and Egan-Riley: 6 passesCadden and Fish: 6 passesHanlon and Jeggo: 6 passesStevenson and Henderson: 6 passesStevenson and Youan: 6 passesEgan-Riley and Campbell: 6 passesMarshall and Fish: 7 passesEgan-Riley and Henderson: 7 passesCampbell and Youan: 7 passesCadden and Campbell: 8 passesStevenson and Jeggo: 8 passesMarshall and Hanlon: 10 passesMarshall: 20 completed passesCadden: 16 completed passesFish: 18 completed passesHanlon: 21 completed passesStevenson: 18 completed passesJeggo: 15 completed passesEgan-Riley: 18 completed passesHenderson: 13 completed passesCampbell: 19 completed passesYouan: 11 completed passesHoppe: 10 completed passes11225416142618322313MarshallCaddenFishHanlonStevensonJeggoEgan-RileyHendersonCampbellYouanHoppeStarters until 59' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Rangers

Tavernier and Colak: 7 passesDavies and Jack: 7 passesBarisic and Sakala: 7 passesRaskin and Cantwell: 7 passesJack and Sakala: 7 passesColak and Sakala: 7 passesRaskin and Jack: 8 passesDavies and Barisic: 10 passesBarisic and Jack: 10 passesCantwell and Kent: 10 passesKent and Colak: 10 passesTavernier and Jack: 11 passesRaskin and Sakala: 11 passesTavernier and Kent: 12 passesRaskin and Kent: 12 passesKent and Sakala: 12 passesGoldson and Raskin: 14 passesCantwell and Jack: 14 passesGoldson and Jack: 15 passesBarisic and Raskin: 15 passesBarisic and Kent: 16 passesGoldson and Cantwell: 18 passesJack and Kent: 18 passesGoldson and Davies: 22 passesTavernier and Goldson: 25 passesTavernier and Cantwell: 28 passesMcGregor: 11 completed passesTavernier: 54 completed passesGoldson: 59 completed passesDavies: 31 completed passesBarisic: 35 completed passesRaskin: 42 completed passesCantwell: 46 completed passesJack: 54 completed passesKent: 44 completed passesColak: 13 completed passesSakala: 23 completed passes12626314313814930McGregorTavernierGoldsonDaviesBarisicRaskinCantwellJackKentColakSakalaStarters until 77' · lines join pairs with 7+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
FishMarshall10
MarshallEgan-Riley9
Egan-RileyFish9
CaddenEgan-Riley9
HanlonMarshall8

Rangers

FromToPasses
TavernierCantwell18
GoldsonTavernier17
GoldsonDavies14
CantwellJack12
JackKent12

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

5+0.515+9.027+15.412+4.73−3.65−0.710+3.97+2.89+2.614+6.07+1.40−5.12−1.18+2.12−5.53−0.89+4.57+4.56+1.38+3.41−1.30−1.81+0.20−1.91−1.60−0.80−0.70−0.80−0.72+1.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 27 matches

Rangers

4+0.42−1.48+0.87+2.21−3.09+3.33−2.39+5.23−2.84−2.414+8.43−1.36+3.09+2.46−0.45−0.49+4.31−2.70−3.96+1.35+1.24+1.41−0.72−0.330.03+2.10−0.70−0.71+0.50−0.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 27 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

0.010.020.020.010.020.010.010.010.010.040.040.030.040.010.030.04−0.010.02−0.01−0.01−0.010.060.050.05LessMore

Rangers

0.010.020.030.020.020.030.010.050.020.050.030.070.070.090.040.150.270.030.110.030.070.170.18−0.050.200.39LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.25AttackHibernian1.29 → 1.25Rangers2.20 → 2.27Defence (lower is better)Hibernian1.10 → 1.17Rangers0.66 → 0.65

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hibernian
Top six98%98%0
Rangers
Title4%6%+2
Celtic
Title96%94%−2

From the forecast before the match (8 March 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianRangers
Expected goals0.821.75
Win17%59%
Expected Points0.752.01
Clean sheet17%44%

Hibernian 17%Draw 24%Rangers 59%

Most likely score 0–1, 13%. Both sides score 47%.

Rangers goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+8%7%3%1%6%6%2%3%5%4%2%1%1%1%13%12%12%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 8 March 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawRangers win
Hibernian
Top six98%>99%99%98%
Rangers
Title4%2%3%6%
Celtic
Title96%98%97%94%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. W4–14 MarLivingston (A)xG 1.36–0.43
  2. W2–018 FebKilmarnock (H)xG 2.94–0.82
  3. W1–04 FebSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.64–0.36
  4. D1–131 JanRoss County (A)xG 1.03–0.69
  5. W6–028 JanAberdeen (H)xG 2.60–0.52
  6. D2–214 JanDundee United (H)xG 0.80–0.87

Rangers

  1. W3–14 MarKilmarnock (H)xG 3.55–0.79
  2. W3–018 FebLivingston (A)xG 2.96–0.84
  3. W2–14 FebRoss County (H)xG 2.15–1.01
  4. W3–01 FebHearts (A)xG 3.07–0.86
  5. W2–028 JanSt. Johnstone (H)xG 3.29–0.23
  6. W3–218 JanKilmarnock (A)xG 1.49–0.79

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianRangers
Position4th2nd
Played2727
Won, drawn, lost12–⁠4–⁠1121–⁠4–⁠2
Points40 (1.48 per game)67 (2.48 per game)
Expected Points per game1.532.32
Goals43–⁠3964–⁠24
xG per game1.33–⁠1.112.14–⁠0.64
Home: points, xG per game1.85, 1.54–⁠1.012.71, 2.52–⁠0.54
Away: points, xG per game1.14, 1.13–⁠1.202.23, 1.74–⁠0.74
ManagerLee Johnson (27)Michael Beale (12)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.25AttackHibernian1.29, 4thRangers2.20, 2ndDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.10, 3rdRangers0.66, 2nd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarHibernian attack: 1.29Rangers attack: 2.202.201.29RangersHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarHibernian defence: 1.10Rangers defence: 0.661.100.66

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianRangers
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+1%−27%+82%−51%
Counter-attacks+71%+17%−22%−73%
Set pieces+16%−14%+33%−23%
Penalties−42%+36%+55%−100%
Headers+5%−24%+59%−46%
Left side+12%−33%+50%−49%
Centre−5%−16%+63%−41%
Right side+23%−18%+83%−47%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdRangers concededLeft side+12%−47%Centre−5%−41%Right side+23%−49%Open play+1%−51%Counter-attacks+71%−73%Set pieces+16%−23%Headers+5%−46%

Rangers attacking

Rangers createdHibernian concededLeft side+50%−18%Centre+63%−16%Right side+83%−33%Open play+82%−27%Counter-attacks−22%+17%Set pieces+33%−14%Headers+59%−24%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianRangers

1.33xG2.14
1.11xG against0.64
57%Possession67%
15.6Shots19.1
10.3Shots against7.3
5.2Shots on target7.1
1.5Big chances3.3
23.0Touches in the opposition box38.8
415Passes591
76%Pass accuracy85%
5.9Corners7.4
61%Field tilt81%
45.7Final-third entries68.4
12.9Box entries21.6
11.2Passes per defensive action9.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level331.111.12
Ahead261.601.06
Behind311.321.14

Rangers

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level272.510.67
Ahead452.150.61
Behind181.530.66

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.114–9
16–300.120.155–5
31–450.260.209–5
46–600.290.237–7
61–750.220.149–6
76–900.270.279–7

Rangers

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.340.109–6
16–300.330.127–2
31–450.330.089–4
46–600.390.1313–5
61–750.270.0712–2
76–900.470.1414–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMarshall 27Cadden 20Porteous 4Fish 1Bushiri 13Porteous 12Fish 6Hanlon 23Cabraja 13Stevenson 9Kukharevych 3Kenneh 13Campbell 8Porteous 4Newell 15Jeggo 5Boyle 6Cadden 5Magennis 3Campbell 10Newell 6Cabraja 3Youan 13McGeady 4Newell 3Youan 7Kukharevych 6Nisbet 54-2-3-1 in 12 of 27 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (12), 4-1-4-1 (6), 3-5-2 (4), 4-4-2 (3), 4-3-3 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

Rangers

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMcGregor 17McLaughlin 10Tavernier 27Goldson 20King 7Davies 18Sands 7Lundstram 1Barisic 22Devine 3Yilmaz 2Jack 10Kamara 10Raskin 2Lundstram 22Sands 3Davis 3Sakala 11Wright 5Tillman 4Tillman 12Arfield 4Lawrence 3Kent 23Matondo 2Tillman 1Colak 16Morelos 10Sakala 14-2-3-1 in 24 of 27 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (24), 4-3-3 (3)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
15 December 2022Rangers3–2HibernianxG 2.31–0.62
20 August 2022Hibernian2–2RangersxG 0.77–1.57
9 February 2022Rangers2–0HibernianxG 2.45–0.81
1 December 2021Hibernian0–1RangersxG 0.22–1.78
3 October 2021Rangers2–1HibernianxG 1.68–0.23
11 April 2021Rangers2–1HibernianxG 0.58–1.09

9 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 0, Rangers won 7, and 2 were drawn. Goals 8–16 and xG 0.68–1.91 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nisbet7550810.620.02
Kukharevych10766410.410.13
Boyle10936510.330.13
Youan211,845660.230.18

Rangers

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Morelos101,116940.820.20
Sakala131,081550.500.24
Colak161,2411110.570.08
Tavernier272,4061150.330.25

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.