Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Hibernian 0–2 Motherwell

Saturday 27 February 2021, 15:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 30 · Half-time 0–1

Motherwell Roberts 25', Cole 46'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianMotherwell
Goals02
xG1.701.00
Expected Points1.900.82

Hibernian 54%Draw 27%Motherwell 18%

Most likely score 1–1, 15%. Final score 0–2, 2%.

Motherwell goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+4%5%2%11%7%2%10%7%2%5%6%3%1%2%15%13%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTNisbet on for McGregor, Gogic on for Stevenson, and Porteous on for Murphy, 49'Allan on for Irvine, 79'McGinley on for Carroll, 41'Gallagher on for Watt, 70'Lawless on for Roberts, 79'Roberts 25'Cole 46'Hibernian 1.70Motherwell 1.0000.511.520153045607590HTNisbet on for McGregor, Gogic on for Stevenson, and Porteous on for Murphy, 49'Allan on for Irvine, 79'McGinley on for Carroll, 41'Gallagher on for Watt, 70'Lawless on for Roberts, 79'Roberts 25'Cole 46'1.701.00HibernianMotherwell

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianMotherwell

1.70 +0.20xG1.00 −0.10
1.00 −0.60xG on target0.66 −0.24
16 +4Shots12 +1
3 −1.3Shots on target2 −1.2
2 0.0Big chances1 −0.3
35 +14Touches in the opposition box15 −4
67% +18Possession33% −13
494 +106Passes256 −92
76% +4Pass accuracy56% −13
67% +21Field tilt33% −3
57 +18Final-third entries22 −8
19 +8.4Box entries9 −0.8
10.5 −3Passes per defensive action13.5 −1
6 +0.6Corners4 −1.1
10 −5Tackles15 +1
10 0Interceptions13 +3
13 −8Clearances32 +9
0 −2.6Saves3 +0.1
9 −4Fouls12 0
3 +0.9Offsides3 +1.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Doidge 78', 0.59 xGDoidge 68', 0.38 xGDoidge 78', 0.15 xGDoidge 59', 0.08 xGNisbet 90+5', 0.07 xGBoyle 11', 0.06 xGNisbet 75', 0.06 xGCadden 27', 0.05 xGBoyle 64', 0.05 xGCadden 16', 0.04 xGNewell 59', 0.04 xGAllan 84', 0.04 xGBoyle 41', 0.03 xGBoyle 45', 0.03 xGBoyle 89', 0.03 xGBoyle 90+4', 0.02 xG35%0.59 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.59 xG, 0 goals24%0.40 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.40 xG, 0 goals31%0.53 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.53 xG, 0 goals9%0.15 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Motherwell

Watt 18', 0.38 xGCampbell 22', 0.07 xGCole 23', 0.06 xGCole 73', 0.06 xGCampbell 26', 0.05 xGWatt 57', 0.05 xGCole 6', 0.03 xGCampbell 35', 0.03 xGCrawford 40', 0.03 xGCrawford 48', 0.02 xGRoberts 25', 0.13 xG, goalCole 46', 0.08 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals38%0.38 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.38 xG, 2 goals44%0.44 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.44 xG, 0 goals15%0.15 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals3%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianMotherwell

1.55 12 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.93 10 shots, 2 goals
0.16 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.08 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
25 min (26%) · Hibernian 0.09, Motherwell 0.67 xG
Motherwell ahead
70 min (74%) · Hibernian 1.61, Motherwell 0.33 xG

Line-ups

162442736111618109MarcianoMcGinnMcGregorHanlonCaddenIrvineNewellStevensonMurphyBoyleDoidgeYellow cardYellow card49'79'49'49'Hibernian 3-4-1-2Jack Ross133340431586394432KellyO'DonnellMagloireLamieCarrollMaguireCrawfordCampbellRobertsColeWattGoalGoal41'79'70'Motherwell 4-3-3Graham Alexander

Hibernian substitutes

  • 49' Gogic for Stevenson
  • 49' Porteous for Murphy
  • 49' Nisbet for McGregor
  • 79' Allan for Irvine

Motherwell substitutes

  • 41' McGinley for Carroll
  • 70' Gallagher for Watt
  • 79' Lawless for Roberts

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarcianoGK900.000.0000.0330
McGinnCB900.000.0700.28129
McGregorCB490.000.0000.0136
Hanlon CB900.000.0100.0142
CaddenRWB900.090.0100.0121
IrvineCM790.000.1110.0726
NewellCM900.040.2100.1037
StevensonLWB490.000.1120.1150
MurphyAM490.000.0400.0950
Boyle ST900.230.2420.36180
DoidgeST901.190.022−0.0521
GogicDF410.000.0200.0323
PorteousDF410.000.0100.0613
NisbetFW410.130.0100.0010
AllanMF110.040.0810.0730

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KellyGK900.000.0100.0542
O'DonnellRB900.000.0810.1034
MagloireCB900.000.0000.02211
LamieCB900.000.0100.03314
CarrollLB410.000.0730.1795
MaguireCM900.000.0710.0516
CrawfordCM900.060.0110.0125
CampbellCM900.150.010−0.0124
RobertsRW79110.130.0710.1123
ColeST9010.230.0710.0761
WattLW7010.440.1920.0552
McGinleyMF490.000.0000.0434
GallagherDF200.000.0000.0002
LawlessFW110.000.000−0.0101

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Marciano and McGregor: 3 passesMcGinn and Newell: 3 passesHanlon and Murphy: 3 passesMcGregor and Irvine: 3 passesMcGregor and Doidge: 3 passesCadden and Stevenson: 3 passesMcGinn and McGregor: 4 passesHanlon and McGregor: 4 passesMcGregor and Newell: 4 passesStevenson and Murphy: 4 passesMurphy and Doidge: 4 passesCadden and Newell: 5 passesCadden and Boyle: 5 passesNewell and Murphy: 5 passesMarciano and Doidge: 6 passesMcGinn and Irvine: 6 passesMarciano and Hanlon: 7 passesHanlon and Newell: 7 passesMcGinn and Cadden: 8 passesHanlon and Stevenson: 11 passesCadden and Irvine: 11 passesNewell and Stevenson: 12 passesMarciano: 11 completed passesMcGinn: 14 completed passesHanlon: 19 completed passesMcGregor: 14 completed passesCadden: 16 completed passesIrvine: 16 completed passesNewell: 21 completed passesStevenson: 19 completed passesMurphy: 12 completed passesBoyle: 4 completed passesDoidge: 5 completed passes164242736111618109MarcianoMcGinnHanlonMcGregorCaddenIrvineNewellStevensonMurphyBoyleDoidgeStarters until 49' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Motherwell

O'Donnell and Crawford: 3 passesLamie and Watt: 3 passesCarroll and Roberts: 3 passesMaguire and Cole: 3 passesRoberts and Cole: 3 passesCarroll and Maguire: 4 passesCarroll and Cole: 4 passesO'Donnell and Campbell: 5 passesCarroll and Watt: 5 passesRoberts and Watt: 5 passesKelly: 3 completed passesO'Donnell: 11 completed passesMagloire: 5 completed passesLamie: 5 completed passesCarroll: 12 completed passesCrawford: 6 completed passesCampbell: 5 completed passesMaguire: 9 completed passesRoberts: 7 completed passesCole: 9 completed passesWatt: 7 completed passes133340438615394432KellyO'DonnellMagloireLamieCarrollCrawfordCampbellMaguireRobertsColeWattStarters until 41' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
McGinnBoyle15
BoyleMcGinn11
McGinnIrvine10
GogicMcGinn10
PorteousGogic9

Motherwell

FromToPasses
CampbellO'Donnell9
O'DonnellCole5
RobertsMaguire5
CarrollWatt4
RobertsWatt4

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

3−2.09+3.75−1.59+2.99+2.05−2.46−2.28+0.811+3.19+2.93−2.92−2.610+3.87+1.26+2.11−2.42+0.12−1.04−0.41−1.00−1.210.01−0.31−0.80−0.80−0.50−1.20−0.40−0.77−6.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 29 matches

Motherwell

2−2.54−2.732+15.812+3.111+4.66−0.58+0.33−3.39+1.46−1.69+3.91−4.23−0.84−1.36+1.37+3.77+3.92−0.63+0.26+2.61−1.12+0.20−0.81−0.41−1.02+1.32+1.52+1.00−0.50−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 30 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

0.020.010.020.010.020.020.030.060.030.020.020.030.130.060.010.020.12−0.040.050.080.110.03−0.070.070.33LessMore

Motherwell

0.020.010.010.010.030.010.040.010.010.010.010.040.020.010.050.090.06−0.050.05−0.010.140.14LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.16AttackHibernian1.33 → 1.30Motherwell1.00 → 1.00Defence (lower is better)Hibernian0.99 → 1.00Motherwell1.41 → 1.38

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Motherwell
Top six<1%1%+1
11th13%6%−7
Bottom5%1%−4
Kilmarnock
11th28%30%+2
Bottom23%22%−1

From the forecast before the match (27 February 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianMotherwell
Expected goals1.680.88
Win56%19%
Expected Points1.920.82
Clean sheet41%19%

Hibernian 56%Draw 25%Motherwell 19%

Most likely score 1–0, 12%. Both sides score 48%.

Motherwell goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+8%6%3%5%1%4%1%6%5%2%3%2%1%12%12%11%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 27 February 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawMotherwell win
Motherwell
Top six<1%––1%
11th13%16%12%6%
Bottom5%7%3%1%
Kilmarnock
11th28%26%29%30%
Bottom23%23%24%22%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. W2–020 FebHamilton Academical (H)xG 2.49–0.40
  2. W2–06 FebAberdeen (H)xG 2.26–0.54
  3. W2–12 FebSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.60–0.65
  4. W2–030 JanDundee United (A)xG 1.34–0.51
  5. L0–127 JanRangers (H)xG 0.80–1.72
  6. W2–016 JanKilmarnock (H)xG 0.68–0.64

Motherwell

  1. D0–024 FebSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.39–0.30
  2. L0–320 FebSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.03–3.04
  3. L1–413 FebHamilton Academical (H)xG 1.32–2.03
  4. W1–010 FebKilmarnock (A)xG 0.95–1.00
  5. L1–26 FebCeltic (A)xG 0.42–1.57
  6. W2–13 FebDundee United (H)xG 1.90–0.97

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianMotherwell
Position3rd9th
Played2930
Won, drawn, lost15–⁠7–⁠77–⁠8–⁠15
Points52 (1.79 per game)29 (0.97 per game)
Expected Points per game1.621.09
Goals41–⁠2626–⁠46
xG per game1.50–⁠1.121.10–⁠1.60
Home: points, xG per game1.53, 1.39–⁠1.230.80, 1.06–⁠1.68
Away: points, xG per game2.07, 1.63–⁠1.001.13, 1.14–⁠1.53
ManagerJack Ross (29)Graham Alexander (10)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.16AttackHibernian1.33, 3rdMotherwell1.00, 7thDefence (lower is better)Hibernian0.99, 4thMotherwell1.41, 10th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebHibernian attack: 1.33Motherwell attack: 1.001.331.00MotherwellHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebHibernian defence: 0.99Motherwell defence: 1.411.410.99

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianMotherwell
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+19%−17%−17%+9%
Counter-attacks−25%+32%−71%+163%
Set pieces+8%−9%+8%+30%
Penalties+58%−1%−23%+72%
Headers+40%−27%−7%+44%
Left side+8%−9%−31%+4%
Centre+11%−30%−6%+29%
Right side+24%+15%−7%+27%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdMotherwell concededLeft side+8%+27%Centre+11%+29%Right side+24%+4%Open play+19%+9%Counter-attacks−25%+163%Set pieces+8%+30%Headers+40%+44%

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdHibernian concededLeft side−31%+15%Centre−6%−30%Right side−7%−9%Open play−17%−17%Counter-attacks−71%+32%Set pieces+8%−9%Headers−7%−27%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianMotherwell

1.50xG1.10
1.12xG against1.60
49%Possession46%
11.8Shots10.6
11.5Shots against13.9
4.3Shots on target3.2
2.0Big chances1.3
20.7Touches in the opposition box18.6
388Passes348
71%Pass accuracy69%
5.4Corners5.1
46%Field tilt36%
38.8Final-third entries30.5
10.6Box entries9.8
13.9Passes per defensive action14.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level391.611.01
Ahead341.681.17
Behind170.891.30

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level361.221.47
Ahead231.031.60
Behind311.001.76

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.250.145–4
16–300.200.158–2
31–450.230.236–6
46–600.180.216–4
61–750.360.169–2
76–900.290.237–8

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.306–9
16–300.250.197–5
31–450.130.233–6
46–600.190.252–6
61–750.250.267–7
76–900.110.371–13

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMarciano 25Macey 2Barnes 2McGinn 24Cadden 3Boyle 1Porteous 25McGregor 5McGinn 1Hanlon 27Doig 15Stevenson 8Gogic 3Boyle 19McGinn 4Newell 2Gogic 15Hallberg 9Mallan 3Newell 21Irvine 5Nisbet 1Murphy 11Doig 4Horgan 4Nisbet 22Boyle 6Wright 1Doidge 22Gogic 3Murphy 14-4-2 in 13 of 29 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (13), 3-4-1-2 (4), 3-5-2 (4), 4-5-1 (2), 4-3-3 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1), 4-1-3-2 (1)

Motherwell

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWCarson 12Kelly 10Chapman 4O'Donnell 25Grimshaw 2Johnston 1Gallagher 22O'Hara 4Magloire 2Mugabi 18Lamie 14Carroll 11Grimshaw 8McGinley 7Campbell 27Long 1Seedorf 1O'Hara 14Crawford 13Grimshaw 1Polworth 18Maguire 11Turnbull 2Long 6Seedorf 5Lang 4Watt 13Cole 8Long 6Watt 12Lang 7Cole 64-3-3 in 19 of 30 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (19), 5-3-2 (4), 3-5-2 (3), 4-4-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
5 December 2020Motherwell0–3HibernianxG 1.22–1.08
15 August 2020Hibernian0–0MotherwellxG 1.45–0.89

2 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 1, Motherwell won 0, and 1 was a draw. Goals 3–0 and xG 1.27–1.05 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Mallan4507100.230.33
Nisbet232,0621120.480.08
Boyle272,4321050.370.12
Doidge222,058520.370.07

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Cole161,319520.500.02
Lang121,038310.360.03
Watt252,125340.230.11
Polworth181,538030.070.23

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.