Digressive Celts

Matches › 2021/22

Hibernian 1–3 Celtic

Wednesday 27 October 2021, 19:45 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 11 · Half-time 1–3 · Attendance 17,580

Hibernian Boyle 37'

Celtic Ralston 10', Carter-Vickers 14', Furuhashi 30'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianCeltic
Goals13
xG1.502.86
Expected Points0.562.25

Hibernian 12%Draw 19%Celtic 69%

Most likely score 1–3, 11%. Final score 1–3, 11%.

Celtic goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+2%4%4%3%1%5%7%3%1%4%6%3%1%3%4%2%1%10%11%9%10%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTCampbell on for Gogic, 46'Gullan on for Nisbet and Wright on for Murphy, 76'Bitton on for Rogic, 44'Giakoumakis on for Johnston, 65'Abada on for Furuhashi, 81'Boyle 37'Ralston 10'Carter-Vickers 14'Furuhashi 30'Celtic 2.86Hibernian 1.5001230153045607590HTCampbell on for Gogic, 46'Gullan on for Nisbet and Wright on for Murphy, 76'Bitton on for Rogic, 44'Giakoumakis on for Johnston, 65'Abada on for Furuhashi, 81'Boyle 37'Ralston 10'Carter-Vickers 14'Furuhashi 30'2.861.50HibernianCeltic

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianCeltic

1.50 +0.10xG2.86 +0.31
1.96 +0.50xG on target3.82 +1.28
9 −4Shots19 −1
4 0.0Shots on target8 +0.9
2 +0.6Big chances4 +0.1
21 +8Touches in the opposition box25 −10
41% −13Possession59% −13
338 −64Passes516 −151
78% +5Pass accuracy86% −2
33% −21Field tilt67% −13
36 −2Final-third entries65 −6
12 0Box entries12 −10
13.4 +0.6Passes per defensive action17.4 +8.6
4 −1.6Corners8 −0.4
25 +12Tackles7 −6
6 −3.0Interceptions10 +2.5
10 −8Clearances29 +14
5 +2.5Saves3 +1.1
15 +4Fouls9 −4
2 +0.2Offsides4 +2.9

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Murphy 75', 0.54 xGNewell 11', 0.48 xGPorteous 66', 0.11 xGNisbet 16', 0.06 xGCampbell 47', 0.04 xGMurphy 45', 0.03 xGPorteous 78', 0.02 xGNewell 80', 0.02 xGBoyle 37', 0.19 xG, goal45%0.67 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.67 xG, 1 goal46%0.69 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.69 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals6%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals1%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Celtic

Furuhashi 33', 0.44 xGRogic 27', 0.39 xGJota 88', 0.19 xGGiakoumakis 67', 0.14 xGTurnbull 53', 0.10 xGGiakoumakis 73', 0.07 xGTurnbull 20', 0.06 xGTurnbull 55', 0.06 xGTurnbull 35', 0.05 xGMcGregor 45+1', 0.05 xGTurnbull 13', 0.04 xGMcGregor 69', 0.03 xGRogic 36', 0.02 xGTurnbull 42', 0.02 xGTurnbull 61', 0.02 xGStarfelt 62', 0.01 xGFuruhashi 30', 0.69 xG, goalRalston 10', 0.41 xG, goalCarter-Vickers 14', 0.05 xG, goal52%1.50 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 1.50 xG, 2 goals29%0.82 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.82 xG, 1 goal3%0.09 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals15%0.42 xGEdge of the box: 7 shots, 0.42 xG, 0 goals1%0.04 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianCeltic

1.20 7 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.97 11 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.20 1 shot, 0 goals
0.30 2 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.70 7 shots, 2 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
10 min (11%) · Hibernian 0.00, Celtic 0.41 xG
Celtic ahead
81 min (89%) · Hibernian 1.50, Celtic 2.44 xG

Line-ups

16543102213111815MaceyMcGinnPorteousHanlonDoigBoyleDoyle-HayesGogicNewellMurphyNisbetYellow cardGoalYellow card46'76'76'Hibernian 4-5-1Jack Ross15562048818421417819HartRalstonCarter-VickersStarfeltJuranovicRogicMcGregorTurnbullJotaFuruhashiJohnstonGoalGoalYellow cardGoal44'81'65'Celtic 4-3-3Ange Postecoglou

Hibernian substitutes

  • 46' Campbell for Gogic
  • 76' Wright for Murphy
  • 76' Gullan for Nisbet

Celtic substitutes

  • 44' Bitton for Rogic
  • 65' Giakoumakis for Johnston
  • 81' Abada for Furuhashi

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MaceyGK900.000.0000.0122
McGinnRB900.000.0310.0759
Porteous CB900.130.0210.0963
HanlonCB900.000.0100.0769
DoigLB900.000.0600.1579
BoyleRM9010.190.0810.0670
Doyle-HayesCM900.000.3630.0935
Gogic CM460.000.0000.0002
NewellCM9010.510.191−0.0224
MurphyLM760.570.4010.2041
NisbetST760.060.0200.0110
CampbellMF440.040.010−0.0202
WrightDF140.000.0100.0220
GullanFW140.000.0000.0001

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HartGK900.000.0000.0101
RalstonRB9010.410.1710.0585
Carter-VickersCB9010.050.0000.07514
StarfeltCB900.010.0100.0947
JuranovicLB900.000.0100.0044
RogicCM440.410.0900.0620
McGregor CM900.070.0600.0941
TurnbullCM9020.350.8950.2135
JotaRW9010.190.6910.1961
FuruhashiST8111.140.0820.1151
JohnstonLW650.000.0620.1443
BittonDF460.000.0100.0205
GiakoumakisFW250.210.0100.0002
AbadaFW90.000.0310.0200

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Macey and Hanlon: 3 passesMacey and Nisbet: 3 passesHanlon and Newell: 3 passesDoig and Nisbet: 3 passesBoyle and Newell: 3 passesBoyle and Nisbet: 3 passesGogic and Doyle-Hayes: 3 passesDoyle-Hayes and Murphy: 3 passesPorteous and Doig: 4 passesPorteous and Boyle: 4 passesDoyle-Hayes and Newell: 4 passesDoig and Murphy: 5 passesMcGinn and Porteous: 6 passesMcGinn and Newell: 6 passesPorteous and Hanlon: 6 passesDoig and Gogic: 6 passesHanlon and Doyle-Hayes: 8 passesPorteous and Doyle-Hayes: 9 passesPorteous and Newell: 9 passesMacey: 6 completed passesMcGinn: 11 completed passesPorteous: 22 completed passesHanlon: 14 completed passesDoig: 13 completed passesBoyle: 5 completed passesGogic: 7 completed passesDoyle-Hayes: 17 completed passesNewell: 15 completed passesMurphy: 6 completed passesNisbet: 6 completed passes16543101322111815MaceyMcGinnPorteousHanlonDoigBoyleGogicDoyle-HayesNewellMurphyNisbetStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Celtic

Ralston and Rogic: 5 passesRalston and Turnbull: 5 passesStarfelt and Johnston: 5 passesCarter-Vickers and Juranovic: 5 passesRogic and McGregor: 5 passesRogic and Turnbull: 5 passesMcGregor and Johnston: 5 passesRogic and Jota: 6 passesTurnbull and Johnston: 6 passesHart and Carter-Vickers: 7 passesJuranovic and Turnbull: 7 passesRalston and Starfelt: 9 passesRalston and Carter-Vickers: 10 passesStarfelt and Juranovic: 10 passesMcGregor and Turnbull: 10 passesMcGregor and Jota: 11 passesStarfelt and McGregor: 12 passesHart and Starfelt: 14 passesRalston and Jota: 14 passesJuranovic and Johnston: 14 passesCarter-Vickers and McGregor: 15 passesRalston and McGregor: 16 passesStarfelt and Carter-Vickers: 16 passesJuranovic and McGregor: 16 passesHart: 14 completed passesRalston: 35 completed passesStarfelt: 39 completed passesCarter-Vickers: 34 completed passesJuranovic: 34 completed passesRogic: 14 completed passesMcGregor: 50 completed passesTurnbull: 22 completed passesJota: 17 completed passesFuruhashi: 8 completed passesJohnston: 11 completed passes15564208818421417819HartRalstonStarfeltCarter-VickersJuranovicRogicMcGregorTurnbullJotaFuruhashiJohnstonStarters until 44' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
Doyle-HayesPorteous13
DoigMurphy10
McGinnPorteous9
PorteousDoyle-Hayes9
Doyle-HayesMcGinn9

Celtic

FromToPasses
JuranovicMcGregor12
JuranovicJohnston12
McGregorJota12
TurnbullRalston12
McGregorJuranovic11

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

4−0.76+1.19−3.44−1.310+5.19+2.710+2.85−1.311+3.97+1.310+4.46+1.20−3.59+2.93−1.76+1.05+2.25+3.26+3.22−1.64+1.84+2.60−0.92+1.03+0.91−0.21+1.00−0.80−0.20−0.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 10 matches

Celtic

3−1.412+7.714+5.43−1.65−0.86+0.212+6.99+5.113+8.18+0.97+1.72−1.93−0.67+1.33−3.02−2.83−1.020.01−3.33−2.120.02+0.72+0.33+1.630.00−0.40−0.40−0.41+0.20−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 10 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

0.010.020.010.020.010.060.010.030.030.050.010.010.04−0.010.010.060.08−0.010.06−0.01−0.020.060.17LessMore

Celtic

0.010.010.010.020.020.010.010.010.010.040.030.060.010.040.060.020.050.040.030.12−0.020.070.060.020.180.15LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.17AttackHibernian1.25 → 1.29Celtic1.94 → 2.01Defence (lower is better)Hibernian0.99 → 1.04Celtic0.78 → 0.80

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hibernian
Title<1%<1%0
Top six88%84%−4
Celtic
Title35%40%+5
Rangers
Title64%59%−5
St. Mirren
Top six26%27%+1

From the forecast before the match (27 October 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianCeltic
Expected goals0.941.55
Win22%51%
Expected Points0.941.79
Clean sheet21%39%

Hibernian 22%Draw 27%Celtic 51%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 49%.

Celtic goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+9%5%2%7%5%2%4%6%4%2%1%2%1%12%10%13%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 27 October 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawCeltic win
Hibernian
Title<1%1%<1%<1%
Top six88%94%90%84%
Celtic
Title35%26%31%40%
Rangers
Title64%72%67%59%
St. Mirren
Top six26%24%26%27%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. L0–123 OctAberdeen (A)xG 0.22–0.24
  2. L0–316 OctDundee United (H)xG 0.41–0.73
  3. L1–23 OctRangers (A)xG 0.23–1.68
  4. W1–026 SepSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.90–0.22
  5. D2–218 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.10–0.82
  6. D0–012 SepHearts (A)xG 1.09–1.23

Celtic

  1. W2–023 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.70–0.13
  2. W2–016 OctMotherwell (A)xG 1.18–0.54
  3. W2–13 OctAberdeen (A)xG 1.65–0.57
  4. D1–126 SepDundee United (H)xG 2.65–0.98
  5. L0–119 SepLivingston (A)xG 1.24–0.62
  6. W3–011 SepRoss County (H)xG 2.71–0.45

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianCeltic
Position5th4th
Played1010
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠3–⁠36–⁠1–⁠3
Points15 (1.50 per game)19 (1.90 per game)
Expected Points per game1.742.35
Goals14–⁠1223–⁠6
xG per game1.40–⁠0.832.55–⁠0.59
Home: points, xG per game2.00, 1.42–⁠0.582.60, 3.70–⁠0.41
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.38–⁠1.081.20, 1.40–⁠0.77
ManagerJack Ross (48)Ange Postecoglou (10)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.17AttackHibernian1.25, 3rdCeltic1.94, 1stDefence (lower is better)Hibernian0.99, 3rdCeltic0.78, 2nd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctHibernian attack: 1.25Celtic attack: 1.941.941.25CelticHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctHibernian defence: 0.99Celtic defence: 0.780.990.78

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+10%−32%+159%−51%
Counter-attacks+54%+65%+42%−32%
Set pieces−37%−14%+31%−34%
Penalties+140%−100%+20%−100%
Headers−41%+13%+97%−17%
Left side+8%−15%+100%−71%
Centre−3%−22%+171%−24%
Right side−2%−34%+42%−63%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdCeltic concededLeft side+8%−63%Centre−3%−24%Right side−2%−71%Open play+10%−51%Counter-attacks+54%−32%Set pieces−37%−34%Headers−41%−17%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdHibernian concededLeft side+100%−34%Centre+171%−22%Right side+42%−15%Open play+159%−32%Counter-attacks+42%+65%Set pieces+31%−14%Headers+97%+13%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianCeltic

1.40xG2.55
0.83xG against0.59
54%Possession72%
12.6Shots20.2
10.4Shots against7.6
4.0Shots on target7.1
1.4Big chances3.9
12.8Touches in the opposition box35.5
402Passes667
74%Pass accuracy88%
5.6Corners8.4
54%Field tilt79%
38.0Final-third entries71.0
12.1Box entries22.1
12.8Passes per defensive action8.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.440.89
Ahead261.110.97
Behind201.670.49

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level412.050.65
Ahead353.380.59
Behind141.950.39

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.111–2
16–300.170.093–2
31–450.200.102–2
46–600.280.164–2
61–750.400.213–1
76–900.260.171–3

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.290.131–1
16–300.520.107–2
31–450.390.062–0
46–600.190.123–1
61–750.470.084–1
76–900.680.096–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMacey 10McGinn 8Cadden 2Porteous 8Wood 1Hanlon 8McGregor 3Doig 7Stevenson 2Nisbet 1Doyle-Hayes 7Cadden 1Newell 7Magennis 3Gogic 2Boyle 6Cadden 2McGinn 1Magennis 4Allan 3Newell 1Murphy 5Nisbet 1Boyle 1Nisbet 5Boyle 3Scott 14-2-3-1 in 7 of 10 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (7), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWHart 9Bain 1Ralston 8Juranovic 2Carter-Vickers 6Welsh 4Bitton 1Starfelt 9Taylor 4Juranovic 3Bolingoli-Mbo… 2Bolingoli-MbomboRogic 6Christie 2Soro 1McGregor 8McCarthy 2Bitton 1Turnbull 10Abada 9Giakoumakis 1Furuhashi 4Ajeti 3Edouard 3Jota 6Furuhashi 2Christie 14-3-3 in 9 of 10 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (9), 4-2-3-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
15 May 2021Hibernian0–0CelticxG 0.35–2.10
11 January 2021Celtic1–1HibernianxG 0.97–1.83
21 November 2020Hibernian2–2CelticxG 1.54–1.91
27 September 2020Celtic3–0HibernianxG 1.94–0.60

4 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 0, Celtic won 1, and 3 were drawn. Goals 3–6 and xG 1.08–1.73 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Boyle10881600.470.19
Magennis7580210.240.15
Nisbet8699200.280.04
Newell8720010.030.13

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Furuhashi6490400.860.17
Abada9769320.350.44
Jota6536220.370.31
Turnbull10866410.190.38

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.