Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Hibernian 2–2 Dundee United

Saturday 14 January 2023, 15:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 22 · Half-time 1–2 · Referee Colin Steven · Attendance 18,676

Hibernian Nisbet 25', 90+2'

Dundee United Middleton 6', Harkes 30'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianDundee United
Goals22
xG0.800.87
Expected Points1.251.38

Hibernian 29%Draw 37%Dundee United 34%

Most likely score 0–0, 19%. Final score 2–2, 3%.

Dundee United goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+7%2%6%2%6%5%3%1%1%19%16%14%16%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.7510153045607590HTMcKirdy on for Fish and Doyle-Hayes on for Magennis, 64'Melkersen on for McGeady, 85'McGrath on for Fletcher, 83'Pawlett on for Sibbald, 87'Nisbet 25'Nisbet 90+2'Middleton 6'Harkes 30'Dundee United 0.87Hibernian 0.8000.250.50.7510153045607590HTMcKirdy on for Fish and Doyle-Hayes on for Magennis, 64'Melkersen on for McGeady, 85'McGrath on for Fletcher, 83'Pawlett on for Sibbald, 87'Nisbet 25'Nisbet 90+2'Middleton 6'Harkes 30'0.870.80HibernianDundee United

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianDundee United

0.80 −0.46xG0.87 +0.04
0.89 −0.15xG on target1.67 +0.80
16 0Shots12 +2
6 +1.1Shots on target4 +0.3
0 −1.4Big chances0 −0.9
16 −8Touches in the opposition box21 +4
60% +4Possession40% −6
484 +77Passes319 −47
78% +1Pass accuracy67% −3
50% −11Field tilt50% +5
44 −3Final-third entries29 −7
10 −3.5Box entries11 +1.9
11.4 0Passes per defensive action23.9 +7
3 −3.3Corners6 +1.1
16 +1Tackles18 +4
5 −3.0Interceptions2 −7.2
12 −6Clearances32 +9
2 +0.1Saves4 +1.0
10 −3Fouls8 −2
2 +0.1Offsides0 −1.4

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Nisbet 80', 0.11 xGYouan 64', 0.08 xGBushiri 69', 0.08 xGNisbet 49', 0.06 xGCampbell 71', 0.06 xGNisbet 43', 0.04 xGYouan 81', 0.04 xGPorteous 85', 0.04 xGYouan 11', 0.02 xGNewell 12', 0.02 xGMagennis 12', 0.02 xGCampbell 68', 0.02 xGPorteous 72', 0.02 xGMcGeady 38', 0.01 xGNisbet 25', 0.12 xG, goalNisbet 90+2', 0.06 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals61%0.48 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.48 xG, 2 goals16%0.13 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals13%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals10%0.08 xGFurther out: 4 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals

Dundee United

Fletcher 18', 0.14 xGHarkes 50', 0.13 xGFletcher 40', 0.10 xGFletcher 23', 0.08 xGSmith 60', 0.06 xGDjoum 1', 0.05 xGFletcher 21', 0.05 xGEdwards 44', 0.04 xGHarkes 21', 0.03 xGMiddleton 88', 0.02 xGMiddleton 6', 0.10 xG, goalHarkes 30', 0.07 xG, goal15%0.13 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.13 xG, 0 goals59%0.51 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.51 xG, 1 goal17%0.15 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.15 xG, 1 goal9%0.08 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianDundee United

0.61 12 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.58 8 shots, 2 goals
0.18 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.29 4 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
12 min (13%) · Hibernian 0.00, Dundee United 0.23 xG
Dundee United ahead
81 min (87%) · Hibernian 0.80, Dundee United 0.65 xG

Line-ups

1322533165467112315MarshallCampbellFishBushiriStevensonPorteousMcGeadyMagennisNewellYouanNisbetYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoal64'85'64'Hibernian 4-1-4-1Lee Johnson121232214101623159BirighittiSmithEdwardsMcMannFreemanSibbaldDjoumBehichHarkesMiddletonFletcherGoalGoalYellow cardYellow card87'83'Dundee United 3-4-2-1Liam Fox

Hibernian substitutes

  • 64' Doyle-Hayes for Magennis
  • 64' McKirdy for Fish
  • 85' Melkersen for McGeady

Dundee United substitutes

  • 83' McGrath for Fletcher
  • 87' Pawlett for Sibbald · yellow card 90'

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarshallGK900.000.0000.0331
CampbellRB9010.090.0420.0555
FishCB640.000.0000.0325
BushiriCB900.080.0000.0423
Stevenson LB900.000.0110.0730
PorteousDM900.060.0510.24116
McGeadyRM850.010.012−0.0322
Magennis CM640.020.0210.0023
NewellCM9010.020.0830.1389
YouanLM900.140.1220.2141
NisbetST9020.390.0100.0711
Doyle-HayesMF260.000.0520.0010
McKirdyFW260.000.0000.0100
MelkersenFW50.000.000––0

Dundee United

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BirighittiGK900.000.0000.0440
SmithCB900.060.0210.1087
EdwardsCB900.040.0000.0239
McMannCB900.000.0000.0448
FreemanRWB9010.000.1920.2575
SibbaldCM870.000.0200.02211
DjoumCM900.050.2310.2414
BehichLWB900.000.1320.1276
HarkesAM9010.240.0200.0844
Middleton AM9010.120.2140.0432
Fletcher ST8310.370.2620.0602
McGrathFW70.000.0000.0000
Pawlett MF30.000.0000.0010

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Marshall and Bushiri: 4 passesMarshall and Stevenson: 4 passesFish and Newell: 4 passesPorteous and Nisbet: 4 passesNewell and Youan: 4 passesMarshall and Fish: 5 passesCampbell and Magennis: 5 passesBushiri and Newell: 5 passesStevenson and Porteous: 5 passesNewell and Magennis: 5 passesNewell and Nisbet: 5 passesCampbell and McGeady: 6 passesCampbell and Newell: 6 passesStevenson and Youan: 6 passesPorteous and Magennis: 6 passesMarshall and Porteous: 7 passesMcGeady and Magennis: 7 passesPorteous and Newell: 8 passesPorteous and McGeady: 9 passesFish and Porteous: 10 passesBushiri and Stevenson: 12 passesBushiri and Fish: 13 passesStevenson and Newell: 13 passesCampbell and Porteous: 16 passesCampbell and Fish: 17 passesBushiri and Porteous: 21 passesMarshall: 18 completed passesCampbell: 32 completed passesBushiri: 31 completed passesFish: 30 completed passesStevenson: 24 completed passesPorteous: 44 completed passesMcGeady: 10 completed passesNewell: 31 completed passesMagennis: 17 completed passesYouan: 10 completed passesNisbet: 8 completed passes1323325165461172315MarshallCampbellBushiriFishStevensonPorteousMcGeadyNewellMagennisYouanNisbetStarters until 64' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Dundee United

Birighitti and McMann: 4 passesBirighitti and Fletcher: 4 passesMcMann and Fletcher: 4 passesBehich and Fletcher: 4 passesMcMann and Sibbald: 5 passesFreeman and Djoum: 5 passesBehich and Djoum: 5 passesBehich and Harkes: 5 passesDjoum and Fletcher: 5 passesSibbald and Middleton: 5 passesSmith and Djoum: 6 passesBehich and Sibbald: 6 passesMiddleton and Fletcher: 6 passesSmith and Freeman: 7 passesSmith and Sibbald: 7 passesEdwards and Djoum: 8 passesMcMann and Middleton: 8 passesSmith and Harkes: 8 passesSibbald and Harkes: 8 passesMcMann and Behich: 9 passesMcMann and Djoum: 9 passesDjoum and Middleton: 9 passesBehich and Middleton: 18 passesFreeman and Harkes: 22 passesBirighitti: 8 completed passesEdwards: 11 completed passesMcMann: 29 completed passesSmith: 22 completed passesFreeman: 24 completed passesBehich: 28 completed passesDjoum: 27 completed passesSibbald: 22 completed passesHarkes: 18 completed passesMiddleton: 24 completed passesFletcher: 11 completed passes112322216101423159BirighittiEdwardsMcMannSmithFreemanBehichDjoumSibbaldHarkesMiddletonFletcherStarters until 83' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
CampbellPorteous17
BushiriPorteous16
PorteousBushiri15
PorteousCampbell15
BushiriStevenson12

Dundee United

FromToPasses
FreemanHarkes14
BehichMiddleton9
MiddletonBehich9
HarkesFreeman8
DjoumEdwards7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

7+2.96+0.28−2.94−3.37+0.24−1.360.06+1.98+2.36−1.38+2.76+3.43−2.66−1.73−0.45+0.92−0.75+0.35+0.51−1.23+1.00−0.820.02−0.50−1.00−0.80−1.00−0.82+1.11−4.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 21 matches

Dundee United

4−0.24−2.317+2.15−1.23−3.010+5.014+9.412+4.37+0.59+2.86+1.35+0.23−0.66+0.74−2.22−3.05+1.93+0.82−1.65+1.84+2.30−1.41−0.12+0.40−1.42+1.41+0.80−0.61+0.60−1.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 20 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

0.010.020.030.010.010.020.020.040.030.030.040.040.050.070.050.05−0.020.040.070.01−0.050.010.140.14LessMore

Dundee United

0.040.020.020.010.010.040.010.020.040.030.020.010.010.050.040.050.030.030.060.050.060.190.19LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.22AttackHibernian1.14 → 1.14Dundee United0.96 → 0.97Defence (lower is better)Hibernian1.21 → 1.22Dundee United1.41 → 1.41

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hibernian
Top six61%53%−8
11th1%1%0
Dundee United
Top six4%3%−1
11th26%27%+1
Bottom13%11%−2
Ross County
11th20%19%−1
Bottom65%68%+3
St. Mirren
Top six43%45%+2
11th4%4%0

From the forecast before the match (14 January 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianDundee United
Expected goals1.580.85
Win54%20%
Expected Points1.880.85
Clean sheet43%21%

Hibernian 54%Draw 26%Dundee United 20%

Most likely score 1–0, 13%. Both sides score 46%.

Dundee United goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+9%7%3%5%1%9%4%1%6%5%2%2%2%13%12%11%

From the forecast as it stood on 14 January 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawDundee United win
Hibernian
Top six61%71%53%46%
11th1%1%1%3%
Dundee United
Top six4%2%3%10%
11th26%28%27%19%
Bottom13%16%11%7%
Ross County
11th20%22%19%18%
Bottom65%62%68%69%
St. Mirren
Top six43%41%45%47%
11th4%3%4%5%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. W3–28 JanMotherwell (A)xG 1.73–1.64
  2. L0–32 JanHearts (A)xG 1.19–1.76
  3. L0–428 DecCeltic (H)xG 0.55–2.61
  4. W4–024 DecLivingston (H)xG 2.06–2.06
  5. L2–315 DecRangers (A)xG 0.62–2.31
  6. L0–112 NovKilmarnock (A)xG 0.85–0.96

Dundee United

  1. L0–28 JanRangers (H)xG 0.46–1.60
  2. W1–02 JanSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.54–0.63
  3. W3–028 DecRoss County (H)xG 0.85–0.98
  4. D2–224 DecHearts (H)xG 0.79–1.72
  5. L0–112 NovAberdeen (A)xG 0.32–1.18
  6. W4–09 NovKilmarnock (H)xG 0.83–0.85

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianDundee United
Position7th11th
Played2120
Won, drawn, lost8–⁠2–⁠115–⁠4–⁠11
Points26 (1.24 per game)19 (0.95 per game)
Expected Points per game1.390.94
Goals27–⁠3523–⁠35
xG per game1.26–⁠1.250.83–⁠1.58
Home: points, xG per game1.70, 1.37–⁠1.101.18, 0.89–⁠1.57
Away: points, xG per game0.82, 1.16–⁠1.390.67, 0.75–⁠1.59
ManagerLee Johnson (21)Liam Fox (15)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.22AttackHibernian1.14, 5thDundee United0.96, 10thDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.21, 3rdDundee United1.41, 11th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanHibernian attack: 1.14Dundee United attack: 0.961.140.96Dundee UnitedHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanHibernian defence: 1.21Dundee United defence: 1.411.411.21

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianDundee United
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−5%−21%−36%+30%
Counter-attacks−9%+64%−2%+176%
Set pieces+30%−4%−49%−1%
Penalties−54%+62%−27%−27%
Headers+14%−16%−48%+3%
Left side+19%−34%−26%+61%
Centre−11%average−37%+23%
Right side+12%−15%−50%−2%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdDundee United concededLeft side+19%−2%Centre−11%+23%Right side+12%+61%Open play−5%+30%Counter-attacks−9%+176%Set pieces+30%−1%Headers+14%+3%

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdHibernian concededLeft side−26%−15%Centre−37%averageRight side−50%−34%Open play−36%−21%Counter-attacks−2%+64%Set pieces−49%−4%Headers−48%−16%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianDundee United

1.26xG0.83
1.25xG against1.58
56%Possession46%
16.2Shots10.1
10.4Shots against14.7
4.9Shots on target3.7
1.4Big chances0.9
24.1Touches in the opposition box17.1
407Passes366
76%Pass accuracy70%
6.3Corners4.9
61%Field tilt45%
46.8Final-third entries35.8
13.5Box entries9.1
11.3Passes per defensive action16.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level341.061.23
Ahead211.451.35
Behind361.341.20

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level360.671.57
Ahead200.821.36
Behind341.001.73

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.112–7
16–300.100.172–4
31–450.250.226–5
46–600.300.276–7
61–750.220.177–5
76–900.250.324–7

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.244–5
16–300.090.173–1
31–450.150.353–10
46–600.110.333–9
61–750.190.165–1
76–900.140.345–9

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMarshall 21Cadden 16Porteous 4Fish 1Bushiri 12Porteous 12Hanlon 18Cabraja 11Stevenson 5Kukharevych 3Newell 12Campbell 7Porteous 3Kenneh 13Boyle 6Cadden 5Magennis 3Campbell 6Newell 5Cabraja 3Youan 10Newell 3Henderson 2Kukharevych 6Youan 4Nisbet 34-2-3-1 in 9 of 21 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (9), 3-5-2 (4), 4-4-2 (3), 4-1-4-1 (3), 4-3-3 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

Dundee United

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTBirighitti 11Eriksson 9Smith 13Middleton 2Cudjoe 2Edwards 20McMann 9Graham 9Mulgrew 5Freeman 12Smith 7Niskanen 1Levitt 17Djoum 4Mulgrew 1Sibbald 10Harkes 3McGrath 3Behich 15McMann 3Sibbald 1McGrath 10Harkes 9Sibbald 1Middleton 11Watt 5Fletcher 3Fletcher 10Watt 7Middleton 13-4-2-1 in 8 of 20 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (8), 5-3-2 (3), 4-3-3 (3), 3-4-1-2 (2), 3-5-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
11 October 2022Dundee United1–0HibernianxG 0.56–1.31
2 April 2022Hibernian1–1Dundee UnitedxG 1.51–0.46
26 December 2021Dundee United1–3HibernianxG 0.54–1.80
16 October 2021Hibernian0–3Dundee UnitedxG 0.41–0.73
30 January 2021Dundee United0–2HibernianxG 0.51–1.34
19 December 2020Hibernian1–1Dundee UnitedxG 2.12–1.43

7 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 3, Dundee United won 2, and 2 were drawn. Goals 8–7 and xG 1.34–0.72 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kukharevych10744310.390.13
Boyle10936510.330.13
Youan151,305160.190.18
Magennis6548200.240.04

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Fletcher131,069410.390.07
Watt121,018410.240.08
Middleton151,280120.120.16
McGrath141,171220.100.14

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.