Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Hearts 0–3 Rangers

Wednesday 1 February 2023, 19:45 · Tynecastle Park · Round 24 · Half-time 0–2 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 18,330

Rangers Morelos 9', 67', Tillman 34'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsRangers
Goals03
xG0.863.07
Expected Points0.222.67

Hearts 4%Draw 11%Rangers 85%

Most likely score 1–3, 13%. Final score 0–3, 10%.

Rangers goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+4%8%7%4%2%5%5%2%2%4%4%3%2%10%11%13%10%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

012340153045607590HTKiomourtzoglou on for Kuol and Forrest on for Hill, 46'Oda on for Ginnelly, 72'Jack on for Tillman, 75'Cantwell on for Kent and Colak on for Morelos, 76'Wright on for Sakala, 84'Lowry on for Lundstram, 89'Morelos 9'Tillman 34'Morelos 67'Rangers 3.07Hearts 0.86012340153045607590HTKiomourtzoglou on for Kuol and Forrest on for Hill, 46'Oda on for Ginnelly, 72'Jack on for Tillman, 75'Cantwell on for Kent and Colak on for Morelos, 76'Wright on for Sakala, 84'Lowry on for Lundstram, 89'Morelos 9'Tillman 34'Morelos 67'3.070.86HeartsRangers

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsRangers

0.86 −0.83xG3.07 +1.07
0.11 −1.33xG on target4.12 +2.07
6 −6Shots20 +1
2 −2.3Shots on target9 +2.1
1 −1.4Big chances6 +2.9
12 −9Touches in the opposition box52 +14
50% −4Possession50% −18
487 +54Passes485 −106
81% +6Pass accuracy86% +1
16% −33Field tilt84% +3
28 −6Final-third entries55 −14
4 −7Box entries34 +13
23.8 +9.2Passes per defensive action11.3 +1.8
1 −3.9Corners7 −0.5
14 −2Tackles21 +6
11 +2.8Interceptions15 +8.1
22 +3Clearances9 −2
7 +3.4Saves2 +0.7
7 −4Fouls11 0
1 −0.3Offsides6 +3.8

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Shankland 77', 0.48 xGShankland 47', 0.12 xGOda 79', 0.09 xGMcKay 22', 0.08 xGForrest 64', 0.07 xGShankland 36', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals78%0.67 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.67 xG, 0 goals20%0.17 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals2%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Rangers

Goldson 90', 0.53 xGSakala 34', 0.29 xGMorelos 52', 0.20 xGSakala 63', 0.15 xGMorelos 19', 0.14 xGMorelos 2', 0.07 xGTillman 4', 0.06 xGSakala 27', 0.06 xGKent 34', 0.06 xGLundstram 45+2', 0.05 xGTavernier 90+5', 0.05 xGSakala 41', 0.04 xGColak 87', 0.04 xGLowry 90+1', 0.04 xGSakala 82', 0.03 xGGoldson 88', 0.03 xGLundstram 27', 0.02 xGMorelos 67', 0.69 xG, goalMorelos 9', 0.32 xG, goalTillman 34', 0.19 xG, goal57%1.73 xGSix-yard box: 4 shots, 1.73 xG, 3 goals25%0.75 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.75 xG, 0 goals14%0.44 xGWide in the box: 6 shots, 0.44 xG, 0 goals4%0.12 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals1%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsRangers

0.79 5 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.82 16 shots, 1 goal
0.08 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.20 1 shot, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces1.04 3 shots, 2 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
9 min (9%) · Hearts 0.00, Rangers 0.45 xG
Rangers ahead
89 min (91%) · Hearts 0.86, Rangers 2.61 xG

Line-ups

28211537261771819930ClarkSibbickRowlesKingsleyHillKuolSnodgrassMcKayCochraneShanklandGinnellyYellow cardYellow cardYellow card46'46'72'Hearts 3-5-2Robbie Neilson126263141871301420McGregorTavernierGoldsonDaviesBarisicLundstramKamaraTillmanSakalaKentMorelosYellow cardYellow cardGoalYellow cardGoalGoal89'75'84'76'76'Rangers 4-2-3-1Michael Beale

Hearts substitutes

  • 46' Forrest for Hill
  • 46' Kiomourtzoglou for Kuol
  • 72' Oda for Ginnelly

Rangers substitutes

  • 75' Jack for Tillman
  • 76' Cantwell for Kent
  • 76' Colak for Morelos
  • 84' Wright for Sakala
  • 89' Lowry for Lundstram

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0000.0111
SibbickCB900.000.2420.1174
RowlesCB900.000.0000.0439
KingsleyCB900.000.0000.04310
Hill RWB460.000.0000.0135
KuolCM460.000.0110.0322
Snodgrass CM900.000.000−0.0114
McKayCM900.080.1710.1593
Cochrane LWB900.000.0110.0328
ShanklandST900.620.0110.1022
GinnellyST720.000.0000.0020
ForrestMF440.070.0400.0673
KiomourtzoglouMF440.000.0100.0102
OdaFW180.090.000−0.0100

Rangers

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McGregorGK900.000.0000.0111
TavernierRB900.050.1320.29138
GoldsonCB9010.570.2110.2693
DaviesCB900.000.0000.0117
Barisic LB900.000.2930.35105
Lundstram DM890.070.0700.0996
KamaraDM900.000.0820.16114
TillmanRW7510.250.2710.1233
SakalaAM8410.580.7420.37112
Kent LW7610.060.8710.2342
MorelosST7621.420.6420.0032
JackMF150.000.0100.0331
CantwellMF140.000.0410.0851
ColakFW140.040.011−0.0200
WrightFW60.000.0000.0010
LowryMF10.040.000−0.0100

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Sibbick and Kingsley: 3 passesSibbick and Cochrane: 3 passesHill and Snodgrass: 3 passesHill and Shankland: 3 passesCochrane and Snodgrass: 3 passesCochrane and Shankland: 3 passesClark and Sibbick: 4 passesRowles and Shankland: 4 passesHill and Kuol: 4 passesMcKay and Snodgrass: 4 passesCochrane and McKay: 5 passesRowles and McKay: 6 passesClark and Rowles: 7 passesSibbick and Snodgrass: 7 passesKingsley and Snodgrass: 8 passesKingsley and Cochrane: 10 passesKingsley and McKay: 10 passesRowles and Cochrane: 12 passesSibbick and Hill: 12 passesRowles and Snodgrass: 13 passesRowles and Sibbick: 15 passesRowles and Kingsley: 19 passesClark: 10 completed passesRowles: 41 completed passesSibbick: 27 completed passesKingsley: 30 completed passesHill: 11 completed passesCochrane: 22 completed passesKuol: 2 completed passesMcKay: 12 completed passesSnodgrass: 22 completed passesGinnelly: 1 completed passesShankland: 10 completed passes28152137219611877309ClarkRowlesSibbickKingsleyHillCochraneKuolMcKaySnodgrassGinnellyShanklandStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Rangers

McGregor and Goldson: 5 passesMcGregor and Davies: 5 passesDavies and Barisic: 5 passesKamara and Sakala: 5 passesDavies and Kamara: 6 passesBarisic and Sakala: 6 passesLundstram and Tillman: 6 passesLundstram and Sakala: 6 passesLundstram and Kent: 6 passesKamara and Tillman: 7 passesBarisic and Kamara: 8 passesKamara and Lundstram: 8 passesKamara and Morelos: 8 passesLundstram and Morelos: 8 passesTillman and Sakala: 8 passesKent and Morelos: 9 passesTavernier and Morelos: 10 passesBarisic and Lundstram: 11 passesKamara and Kent: 11 passesTavernier and Tillman: 12 passesSakala and Morelos: 13 passesTavernier and Goldson: 18 passesTavernier and Lundstram: 18 passesBarisic and Kent: 19 passesGoldson and Davies: 20 passesMcGregor: 15 completed passesTavernier: 39 completed passesGoldson: 31 completed passesDavies: 23 completed passesBarisic: 28 completed passesKamara: 37 completed passesLundstram: 40 completed passesTillman: 19 completed passesSakala: 19 completed passesKent: 30 completed passesMorelos: 26 completed passes126263118471301420McGregorTavernierGoldsonDaviesBarisicKamaraLundstramTillmanSakalaKentMorelosStarters until 75' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
RowlesSibbick23
RowlesKingsley21
KingsleyRowles19
CochraneKingsley18
SibbickRowles18

Rangers

FromToPasses
DaviesGoldson14
LundstramTavernier12
BarisicKent12
KamaraBarisic11
GoldsonTavernier11

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

3−1.712+5.920+7.08+0.92−2.48+0.48+1.28+2.217+8.711+3.71−4.83−1.92−1.31−3.93−2.43−0.93−0.23+0.61−1.75+1.01−2.20−2.00−0.72+1.01−1.10−0.50−0.30−0.50−0.30−0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 23 matches

Rangers

3−0.65+1.62−5.55+0.40−4.18+2.112+6.91−2.83−2.72−4.25−0.88+4.02−1.24−2.712+6.011+5.84−0.72−1.78+4.04−0.710+6.59+6.72+0.34+1.86+3.00−1.01+0.31+0.30−0.52+1.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 23 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.010.040.02−0.010.020.010.03−0.010.010.010.02−0.010.040.040.070.010.020.070.100.10LessMore

Rangers

0.010.010.060.030.010.010.010.030.030.010.020.020.140.040.030.050.050.200.210.020.090.150.01−0.100.100.320.42LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.23AttackHearts1.43 → 1.38Rangers2.10 → 2.13Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.16 → 1.20Rangers0.67 → 0.66

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Rangers
Title5%7%+2
Celtic
Title95%93%−2

From the forecast before the match (1 February 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsRangers
Expected goals0.941.76
Win19%56%
Expected Points0.821.93
Clean sheet17%39%

Hearts 19%Draw 24%Rangers 56%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 51%.

Rangers goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+7%6%3%1%6%6%3%3%5%5%3%1%2%1%11%10%12%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 1 February 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawRangers win
Rangers
Title5%2%4%7%
Celtic
Title95%98%96%93%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. D0–029 JanLivingston (A)xG 1.63–0.34
  2. W5–018 JanAberdeen (H)xG 3.54–1.02
  3. W1–013 JanSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.68–1.41
  4. D1–17 JanSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.99–0.66
  5. W3–02 JanHibernian (H)xG 1.76–1.19
  6. W3–228 DecSt. Johnstone (A)xG 2.33–2.50

Rangers

  1. W2–028 JanSt. Johnstone (H)xG 3.29–0.23
  2. W3–218 JanKilmarnock (A)xG 1.49–0.79
  3. W2–08 JanDundee United (A)xG 1.60–0.46
  4. D2–22 JanCeltic (H)xG 2.00–1.17
  5. W3–028 DecMotherwell (H)xG 2.55–0.41
  6. W1–023 DecRoss County (A)xG 2.13–0.38

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsRangers
Position3rd2nd
Played2323
Won, drawn, lost11–⁠6–⁠617–⁠4–⁠2
Points39 (1.70 per game)55 (2.39 per game)
Expected Points per game1.462.28
Goals42–⁠3153–⁠22
xG per game1.69–⁠1.572.00–⁠0.60
Home: points, xG per game2.27, 2.23–⁠1.542.67, 2.46–⁠0.49
Away: points, xG per game1.17, 1.18–⁠1.592.09, 1.50–⁠0.72
ManagerRobbie Neilson (61)Michael Beale (8)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.23AttackHearts1.43, 3rdRangers2.10, 2ndDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.16, 3rdRangers0.67, 2nd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctNovDecJanHearts attack: 1.43Rangers attack: 2.102.101.43RangersHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctNovDecJanHearts defence: 1.16Rangers defence: 0.671.160.67

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsRangers
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+22%+30%+79%−50%
Counter-attacks+52%−65%−28%−76%
Set pieces+8%+14%+6%−36%
Penalties+95%+8%+30%−100%
Headers−12%+28%+40%−50%
Left side−7%+20%+60%−45%
Centre+29%+25%+41%−44%
Right side+30%+19%+77%−59%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdRangers concededLeft side−7%−59%Centre+29%−44%Right side+30%−45%Open play+22%−50%Counter-attacks+52%−76%Set pieces+8%−36%Headers−12%−50%

Rangers attacking

Rangers createdHearts concededLeft side+60%+19%Centre+41%+25%Right side+77%+20%Open play+79%+30%Counter-attacks−28%−65%Set pieces+6%+14%Headers+40%+28%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsRangers

1.69xG2.00
1.57xG against0.60
54%Possession68%
12.0Shots19.0
14.1Shots against7.4
4.3Shots on target6.9
2.4Big chances3.1
21.2Touches in the opposition box37.8
433Passes591
76%Pass accuracy85%
4.9Corners7.5
49%Field tilt80%
33.6Final-third entries68.8
11.0Box entries21.2
14.6Passes per defensive action9.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level342.111.29
Ahead341.491.94
Behind231.351.44

Rangers

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level282.370.67
Ahead411.980.51
Behind201.530.66

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.290.165–6
16–300.220.158–3
31–450.360.288–0
46–600.210.326–8
61–750.200.285–5
76–900.400.3910–9

Rangers

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.340.117–6
16–300.280.095–2
31–450.280.096–4
46–600.430.1113–4
61–750.250.0610–1
76–900.430.1312–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 16Clark 6Stewart 1Smith 13Sibbick 4Atkinson 3Sibbick 9Neilson 4Halkett 3Rowles 13Kingsley 9Cochrane 8Cochrane 10Halliday 8Snodgrass 3Devlin 14Kiomourtzoglou 5Halliday 5Snodgrass 11Grant 2Smith 1Ginnelly 9Forrest 4Humphrys 2Shankland 4Smith 3Boyce 3McKay 14Mackay-Steven 3Forrest 2Shankland 14Ginnelly 4Humphrys 34-2-3-1 in 7 of 23 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (7), 3-4-3 (6), 3-4-2-1 (4), 4-1-4-1 (4), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Rangers

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMcGregor 14McLaughlin 9Tavernier 23Goldson 16King 7Davies 14Sands 7Lundstram 1Barisic 18Devine 3Yilmaz 2Jack 9Kamara 8Arfield 1Lundstram 20Sands 3Davis 3Sakala 8Wright 5Matondo 4Tillman 12Arfield 4Lawrence 3Kent 19Matondo 2Tillman 1Colak 15Morelos 7Sakala 14-2-3-1 in 21 of 23 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (21), 4-3-3 (2)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
9 November 2022Rangers1–0HeartsxG 1.82–0.50
1 October 2022Hearts0–4RangersxG 0.41–1.85
14 May 2022Hearts1–3RangersxG 0.62–1.22
6 February 2022Rangers5–0HeartsxG 4.76–0.57
12 December 2021Hearts0–2RangersxG 1.00–1.86
16 October 2021Rangers1–1HeartsxG 3.34–0.49

6 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 0, Rangers won 5, and 1 was a draw. Goals 2–16 and xG 0.60–2.48 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland191,7921640.850.09
Grant5579110.360.18
Humphrys6557200.470.04
Ginnelly141,187520.220.21

Rangers

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Morelos7871740.790.15
Sakala9783440.470.20
Colak151,1191100.580.08
Tavernier232,046850.300.25

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.