Matches › 2020/21

Motherwell 0–2 Kilmarnock

Wednesday 30 December 2020, 18:15 · Fir Park · Round 21 · Half-time 0–1

Motherwell O'Hara sent off 52'

Kilmarnock Kiltie 41', Whitehall 53' (pen)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Measure	Motherwell	Kilmarnock
Goals	0	2
xG	0.40	1.78
Non-penalty xG	0.40	0.99
Expected Points	0.32	2.50

Motherwell 5%Draw 18%Kilmarnock 77%

Most likely score 0–1, 23%. Final score 0–2, 23%.

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

MotherwellKilmarnock

0.40 −0.74xG1.78 +0.83

0.40Non-penalty xG0.99

0.08 −0.84xG on target2.42 +1.44

7 −4.6Shots15 +5.4

1 −2.1Shots on target6 +3.0

0 −1.3Big chances2 +1.1

16 −6Touches in the opposition box23 +7

59% +13Possession41% −4

428 +78Passes303 −57

68% −2Pass accuracy63% −6

46% +9Field tilt54% +8

39 +7Final-third entries35 −2

9 −1.3Box entries10 +1.6

7.7 −7Passes per defensive action17.6 +2

3 −2.3Corners6 +1.3

21 +7Tackles14 +2

9 −2Interceptions10 −1

15 −7Clearances19 +2

4 +1.4Saves1 −1.4

11 −2Fouls14 +2

6 +4.1Offsides1 −1.4

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Zones Shots

Motherwell

Kilmarnock

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

MotherwellKilmarnock

0.23 5 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.51 9 shots, 1 goal

0.17 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.48 5 shots, 0 goals

0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

0–00–10–2

Level: 41 min (46%) · Motherwell 0.34, Kilmarnock 0.23 xG
Kilmarnock ahead: 49 min (54%) · Motherwell 0.06, Kilmarnock 1.54 xG

Line-ups

Motherwell substitutes

64' Carroll for Grimshaw
64' Lang for Crawford
65' Chapman for Carson
71' White for Cole

Kilmarnock substitutes

60' Haunstrup for Waters
76' Mulumbu for Tshibola
76' Kabamba for Whitehall
89' Burke for McKenzie

Players

Motherwell

Player	Pos	Min	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Carson	GK	65	0.00	0.00	0	0.02	2	0
O'Hara	CB	52	0.03	0.02	1	0.04	4	3
Gallagher	CB	90	0.00	0.01	0	0.06	5	8
Lamie	CB	90	0.00	0.01	0	0.07	7	8
O'Donnell	RWB	90	0.00	0.07	1	0.17	12	7
Campbell	CM	90	0.11	0.01	0	0.02	1	4
Crawford	CM	64	0.00	0.01	0	0.00	2	7
Polworth	CM	90	0.06	0.09	2	−0.03	1	0
Grimshaw	LWB	64	0.00	0.11	1	0.21	10	3
Watt	ST	90	0.05	0.27	1	0.23	3	2
Cole	ST	71	0.16	0.01	0	0.00	0	2
Carroll	DF	26	0.00	0.00	0	0.02	3	4
Lang	MF	26	0.00	0.03	1	−0.01	0	0
Chapman	GK	25	0.00	0.00	0	0.02	1	0
White	FW	19	0.00	0.01	0	0.01	0	0

Kilmarnock

Player	Pos	Min	G	A	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Rogers	GK	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.01	1	1
McGowan	RB	90			0.00	0.08	0	0.10	4	7
Broadfoot	CB	90			0.23	0.14	1	0.09	3	6
Findlay	CB	90			0.00	0.26	1	0.08	5	6
Waters	LB	60			0.00	0.00	0	0.03	1	2
Power	DM	90			0.06	0.27	1	0.25	9	10
Tshibola	DM	76			0.29	0.32	0	0.02	1	4
Pinnock	RW	90		1	0.06	0.14	3	0.17	5	2
Kiltie	AM	90	1		0.09	0.12	4	0.13	4	2
McKenzie	LW	89			0.07	0.01	0	0.03	2	1
Whitehall	ST	76	1		0.92	0.01	0	−0.01	0	0
Haunstrup	DF	30			0.00	0.01	1	0.07	9	1
Mulumbu	MF	14			0.00	0.00	0	0.01	0	3
Kabamba	FW	14			0.07	0.00	0	−0.01	0	0
Burke	MF	1			0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0	0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Motherwell

Kilmarnock

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Motherwell

From	To	Passes
Campbell	O'Donnell	10
O'Hara	Gallagher	8
O'Donnell	Watt	8
Gallagher	Polworth	8
O'Donnell	Gallagher	8

Kilmarnock

From	To	Passes
Kiltie	McKenzie	6
McKenzie	Haunstrup	6
Power	McGowan	5
Findlay	Kiltie	5
Haunstrup	McKenzie	5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Motherwell

Against its average of 18 matches

Kilmarnock

Against its average of 19 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Motherwell

Kilmarnock

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

Chance	Before	With this result	Change
Motherwell
Top six	30%	20%	−10
11th	4%	7%	+3
Bottom	1%	2%	+1
Kilmarnock
Top six	12%	21%	+9
11th	11%	6%	−5
Bottom	3%	1%	−2
St. Mirren
Top six	43%	44%	+1

From the forecast before the match (30 December 2020): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Measure	Motherwell	Kilmarnock
Expected goals	1.24	1.05
Win	40%	31%
Expected Points	1.49	1.21
Clean sheet	35%	29%

Motherwell 40%Draw 30%Kilmarnock 31%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 47%.

From the forecast as it stood on 30 December 2020: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

Chance	Now	Motherwell win	Draw	Kilmarnock win
Motherwell
Top six	30%	41%	27%	20%
11th	4%	2%	4%	7%
Bottom	1%	1%	1%	2%
Kilmarnock
Top six	12%	6%	10%	21%
11th	11%	15%	11%	6%
Bottom	3%	4%	3%	1%
St. Mirren
Top six	43%	41%	45%	44%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Motherwell

Kilmarnock

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Measure	Motherwell	Kilmarnock
Position	10th	9th
Played	18	19
Won, drawn, lost	4–⁠5–⁠9	5–⁠2–⁠12
Points	17 (0.94 per game)	17 (0.89 per game)
Expected Points per game	1.09	1.03
Goals	17–⁠26	19–⁠25
xG per game	1.14–⁠1.62	0.95–⁠1.46
Home: points, xG per game	0.80, 1.10–⁠1.64	1.11, 1.12–⁠1.43
Away: points, xG per game	1.12, 1.19–⁠1.59	0.70, 0.80–⁠1.48
Manager	Stephen Robinson (10)	Alex Dyer (19)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

This season

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Chances	Motherwell		Kilmarnock
Chances	Created	Conceded	Created	Conceded
Open play	−16%	+15%	−42%	+9%
Counter-attacks	−76%	+96%	−90%	−71%
Set pieces	+1%	+23%	−4%	+27%
Penalties	−13%	+46%	+10%	+10%
Headers	−8%	+32%	−26%	+2%
Left side	−19%	+5%	−18%	+15%
Centre	−16%	+34%	−39%	+9%
Right side	−3%	+12%	−33%	+10%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−19%+10%Centre−16%+9%Right side−3%+15%Open play−16%+9%Counter-attacks−76%−71%Set pieces+1%+27%Headers−8%+2%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdMotherwell concededLeft side−18%+12%Centre−39%+34%Right side−33%+5%Open play−42%+15%Counter-attacks−90%+96%Set pieces−4%+23%Headers−26%+32%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

MotherwellKilmarnock

1.14xG0.95

1.62xG against1.46

46%Possession45%

11.6Shots9.6

12.6Shots against15.1

3.1Shots on target3.0

1.3Big chances0.9

22.1Touches in the opposition box15.7

350Passes360

70%Pass accuracy69%

5.3Corners4.7

37%Field tilt46%

31.8Final-third entries36.6

10.3Box entries8.4

14.8Passes per defensive action15.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Motherwell

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	38	1.00	1.77
Ahead	28	1.19	1.61
Behind	24	1.31	1.37

Kilmarnock

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	44	1.00	1.33
Ahead	16	0.87	2.11
Behind	30	0.94	1.29

xG by period

Motherwell

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.21	0.34	6–4
16–30	0.18	0.19	3–3
31–45	0.16	0.24	3–3
46–60	0.23	0.19	1–2
61–75	0.28	0.28	3–4
76–90	0.08	0.38	1–10

Kilmarnock

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.09	0.20	2–4
16–30	0.17	0.25	4–6
31–45	0.16	0.16	3–2
46–60	0.18	0.19	4–4
61–75	0.20	0.29	3–3
76–90	0.15	0.37	3–6

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Motherwell

Formations: 4-3-3 (8), 5-3-2 (4), 4-4-2 (3), 3-5-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1)

Kilmarnock

Formations: 4-3-3 (9), 4-4-2 (5), 4-2-3-1 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 4-5-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Key players

Motherwell

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
Lang	12	1,012	3	1	0.37	0.03
Watt	13	1,130	3	1	0.27	0.04
Polworth	12	1,050	0	3	0.09	0.21
Long	8	693	1	1	0.14	0.05

Kilmarnock

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
Burke	16	1,370	6	2	0.24	0.24
Pinnock	5	521	0	2	0.05	0.30
Brophy	8	637	2	0	0.32	0.02
Kabamba	17	1,506	5	0	0.27	0.02

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.